Important Takeaways:
- Oil prices a ‘chief concern’ for markets after Iran attack on Israel
- Colas estimated that a spike in oil prices pushing U.S. gasoline to $5.40 a gallon this summer would make a recession later in 2024 “a genuine possibility.” U.S. gas prices averaged $3.634 a gallon at the pump on Monday, according to AAA, at last check.
- “Crude prices are our chief concern, but we are a long way” from $125 a barrel — a level of West Texas Intermediate oil that “would almost certainly cause a recession if sustained,” said Colas. “Gasoline prices are the transmission mechanism between Mideast conflict and the US economy: when pump prices increase quickly, consumers must cut back on other spending.”
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Important Takeaways:
- How could Iran’s attack on Israel affect gas prices? What you should know
- Iran, one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil, has long been engaged in a shadow war with Israel, but there have been concerns the Israel-Hamas war could become a broader regional conflict.
- Any ripple effects on gas prices depend on the countries’ next moves and whether they seek further retaliation against the backdrop of an already raging war, said Michael Walden, Reynolds Distinguished Professor Emeritus at North Carolina State University.
- “We’re uncertain about what’s going to happen,” he said. “And so the impacts are going to be very dependent upon what does evolve.”
- The average price for a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. was $3.63 as of Monday, according to AAA, up almost 4 cents from a week earlier and 22 cents from a month ago. The price was down 3 cents from a year ago, however.
- Oil benchmarks had risen on Friday in anticipation of Iran’s retaliatory assault, with prices soaring to their highest since October.
- If you are planning a last-minute road trip, though, it may be worth going somewhere closer or putting off travel until a later date. Drivers who can take other modes of transportation, such as walking or biking, could consider that as well.
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Important Takeaways:
- In an unsourced report, Channel 12 claims the war cabinet has made the decision to hit back “clearly and forcefully” against Iran for its missile and drone attack on Saturday night.
- The response will be designed to send the message that Israel “will not allow an attack of that magnitude against it to pass without a reaction,” the report says. The response will also be designed to make plain that Israel will not allow the Iranians to “establish the equation” they have sought to assert in recent days. This appears to be a reference to Iran’s warning that future Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, including its international diplomatic premises, will henceforth again be met by Iranian retaliatory strikes on Israel.
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Important Takeaways:
- Iran’s foreign ministry on Sunday summoned the ambassadors of Britain, France, and Germany to question what it referred to as their “irresponsible stance” regarding Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel, Reuters reported, citing Iranian media.
- The three European countries condemned Iran’s drone and missile attack against Israel, which went through Saturday night into Sunday and were in retaliation for a bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria on April 1, which has been blamed on Israel.
- Later, the director for Western Europe at Iran’s foreign ministry accused the three countries of “double standards”, noting they opposed earlier this month a Russian-drafted UN Security Council statement that would have condemned the alleged Israeli attack in Syria.
- Tehran Warns Against Israeli Counterstrike, Threatens US Bases If Washington Assists
- Just hours after the unprecedented Iranian missile and drone attack against Israel, top Iranian military leaders threatened to launch even larger attacks if the Jewish state decides to launch a counterstrike.
- Bagheri further warned the U.S. that Iran would attack U.S. military bases in the Middle East if Washington took part in facilitating an Israeli counterstrike on Iranian soil.
- IRGC Commander Hossein Salami indicated a shift in strategy when he stated that Saturday’s attack has created a “new equation.” He warned that Iran would launch similar attacks from its territory in response to any future Israeli military actions that threaten Iranian interests in the Middle East and beyond.
- Israeli President Calls Iran’s Attack A ‘Declaration Of War’ Says Israel Is ‘Considering All Options’
- While emphasizing that Israel is not seeking war, Herzog characterized the attack as a “declaration of war” and underscored the need for a firm response to Iranian aggression.
- While expressing Israel’s restraint and ongoing dialogue with international partners, Herzog stressed that all options are being considered to address the threat posed by Iran. He reiterated that Israel’s primary objective is the protection and defense of its people and reiterated that the country is not seeking to escalate the conflict into full-scale war.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia has called for restraint from both Iran and Israel as a wider war in the Middle East becomes a real possibility.
- Russia has sent a navy frigate, Marshal Shaposhnikov, armed with Kinzhal supersonic missiles into the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal just hours after Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones.
- The Kremlin confirmed the ship’s presence in the area, adding that it will continue performing the tasks assigned to it under the expedition plan.
- Dmitry Peskov said: “Right now it is very important for everyone to maintain restraint in order not to lead to a complete destabilization of the situation in the region, which does not exactly shine with stability and predictability.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Iran attacks Israel: No drones, cruise missiles breached Israeli airspace
- Sirens blared across Israel on Saturday night as hundreds of drones and missiles launched from Iran reached Israel. Drones and missiles were also reportedly launched from Yemen and other countries around the region.
- The IDF has updated that the full Iranian attack consisted of over 300 threats, of which 100 were ballistic missiles launched from Iran. Another 30 cruise missiles were launched from the Islamic Republic, along with drones. There were also two rounds of rockets, around 40 total, fired on Israel from Lebanon, with Israel responding with counterattacks in close to real-time.
- None of the drones or cruise missiles entered Israeli airspace. IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari noted that only a small number of ballistic missiles penetrated the Jewish state’s airspace.
- Almost all interceptions have been by aircraft, David’s Sling, or the Arrow missile systems. The Iron Dome, which defends well against Hamas and Hezbollah’s simple rockets, is less relevant for drones and fancier long-range missiles.
- Iran confirmed that its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had launched a missile and drone attack against Israel.
- Israel, the US, the UK, and Jordan worked to intercept the drones and missiles over Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and Israel, according to foreign reports. France also assisted in shooting down the aerial threats.
- The Islamic Republic’s attack comes after it accused Israel of killing top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi on April 1, who had directed its proxy attacks on Israel in Lebanon and Syria, including being a top coordinator with Hezbollah.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel has been told not to retaliate after Iran’s drone and missile attack, with British Foreign Secretary David Cameron cautioning Monday it should “think with head as well as heart” because Tehran’s strike had been a near total failure.
- His words of warning came 48-hours after President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the U.S. will not back Israel in a counterattack on Iran.
- “I think they’re perfectly justified to think they should respond because they have been attacked, but we are urging them as friends to think with head as well as heart, to be smart as well as tough,” Cameron told BBC TV.
- “In many ways this has been a double defeat for Iran. The attack was an almost total failure, and they revealed to the world that they are the malign influence in the region prepared to do this. So our hope is that there won’t be a retaliatory response,” he told Sky News.
- Reuters reports Cameron said Britain would also work with allies to look at imposing more sanctions on Iran, and it urged Israel to return its focus on agreeing a ceasefire with Iran-backed Hamas in the Gaza war.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel is bracing for a worst-case scenario that U.S. officials believe could materialize within just hours — the possibility of a direct attack on Israeli soil by Iran in retaliation for a strike almost two weeks ago that killed seven Iranian military officers.
- Two U.S. officials told CBS News that a major Iranian attack against Israel was expected as soon as Friday, possibly to include more than 100 drones and dozens of missiles aimed at military targets inside the country.
- With the Iranian retaliation expected at any time, the U.S. State Department on Thursday warned Americans in Israel not to travel outside major cities, which are better protected from incoming rocket fire by the country’s Iron Dome missile defense system.
- “Whoever harms us, we will harm them,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Thursday as he visited troops at an Israel Defense Forces airbase. “We are prepared… both defensively and offensively.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Nuclear deal in tatters, Iran edges close to weapons capability
- For the past 15 years, the most important clues about Iran’s nuclear program have lain deep underground, in a factory built inside a mountain on the edge of Iran’s Great Salt Desert. The facility, known as Fordow, is the heavily protected inner sanctum of Iran’s nuclear complex and a frequent destination for international inspectors whose visits are meant to ensure against any secret effort by Iran to make nuclear bombs.
- The inspectors’ latest trek, in February, yielded the usual matrices of readings and measurements, couched in the clinical language of a U.N. nuclear watchdog report. But within the document’s dry prose were indications of alarming change.
- In factory chambers that had ceased making enriched uranium under a 2015 nuclear accord, the inspectors now witnessed frenzied activity: newly installed equipment, producing enriched uranium at ever faster speeds, and an expansion underway that could soon double the plant’s output. More worryingly, Fordow was scaling up production of a more dangerous form of nuclear fuel — a kind of highly enriched uranium, just shy of weapons grade. Iranian officials in charge of the plant, meanwhile, had begun talking openly about achieving “deterrence,” suggesting that Tehran now had everything it needed to build a bomb if it chose.
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Important Takeaways:
- “We [have been] dealing with Iran since the 7th of October, and [on] every single front possible – Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq, militias in Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas… so, Israel is in full readiness for any scenario”
- Israel has also suffered widespread GPS disruptions on applications, which Israeli outlet Haaretz reported as deliberate attempts to confuse Israeli drone threats.
- “We are in a multi-front war. We are looking not only at Hamas but all our enemies. We look at all fronts and all threats in order to be ready for any scenario.”
- McInnis argued that any success Iran finds in drawing support and condemnation over the attack is “not likely to translate into much international support for Iranian action against Israel, the United States or anyone else they hold accountable for the strike.”
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