Important Takeaways:
- “Xi said the military should ‘comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war, (and) ensure troops have solid combat capabilities,’ CCTV reported,” according to the AFP and reported on Barrons Saturday.
- The drills were accompanied by China declaring the possibility of invading and taking over Taiwan.
- “China’s communist leaders have insisted they will not rule out using force to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control,” Barrons said on Saturday.
- Days after the Sino naval drills around Taiwan, the Chinese military criticized the U.S. and Canada for sending warships through the Taiwan Strait as the two power blocks exercise show-of-force operations in the region.
- The recent directive by Jinping builds upon a similar order he dictated in 2023, a call for stronger military combat readiness, as well as echoes the ruler’s directives in 2018 to prepare for war.
- The recent war escalation with China follows escalations with Ukraine and Russia and Israel and Iran.
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Important Takeaways:
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar had “settled the score with him,” but stressed that “the task before us [Israel] is not yet complete.”
- Netanyahu said Israel’s focus was on securing the return of the roughly 100 hostages still in Gaza, taken during Hamas’ brutal Oct. 7 attack last year, of whom a third are believed to be dead.
- “This is an important moment in the war,” Netanyahu said to the families of the hostages, according to the Reuters news agency. “We will continue full force until the return home of all your loved ones, who are our loved ones, too. This is our supreme obligation. This is my supreme obligation.”
- President Biden said Sinwar’s death after almost two decades of Hamas rule in Gaza was good news, “for Israel, for the United States, and for the world.” Along with other senior U.S. officials, he indicated that it should bring new hope for a cease-fire in the year-long war.
- But Hamas did not mention any renewed push for a cease-fire agreement with Israel after the killing of its leader.
- Deputy Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya confirmed Sinwar’s death Friday in a televised speech, and said the group would continue on the same path it’s been on. Al-Hayya said Hamas would not release the remaining hostages without a cease-fire deal and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.
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Important Takeaways:
- The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of the attack that ignited the war in the Gaza Strip, marked a major triumph for Israel. But Israeli leaders are also seeking to lock in strategic gains that go beyond military victories – to reshape the regional landscape in Israel’s favor and shield its borders from any future attacks, sources familiar with their thinking say.
- By intensifying its military operations against Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel wants to ensure that its enemies and their chief patron, Iran, don’t regroup and threaten Israeli citizens again, according to Western diplomats, Lebanese and Israeli officials, and other regional sources.
- It is also planning a response to a ballistic-missile barrage carried out by Iran on Oct. 1, its second direct attack on Israel in six months.
- Israel informed several Arab states last year that it also wanted to carve out a buffer zone on the Palestinian side of Gaza’s border. But it remains unclear how deep Israel would like it to be or how it would be enforced after the war ends.
- Israel has said it will not agree to a permanent ceasefire without guarantees that whoever runs postwar Gaza will be able to prevent the corridor from being used to smuggle weapons and supplies to Hamas.
- Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said last week the response would be “lethal, precise, and, above all, unexpected”, although he has also said Israel was not looking to open new fronts.
- Iran has warned repeatedly that it will not hesitate to take military action again if Israel retaliates.
- For now, Netanyahu appears determined to redraw the map around Israel in his favor by purging its enemies from its borders.
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Important Takeaways:
- Hezbollah announced a “new and escalatory phase” in its war with Israel on Thursday – hours after the Israeli military confirmed its forces killed the leader of Hamas.
- In a statement, the Iran-backed terrorist organization said that their plan “will be reflected in the developments and events of the coming days” as hundreds of fighters are prepared to “counter any Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanese villages.”
- Along with the two chiefs, the IDF’s airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Beirut have killed more than a dozen senior officials, including the top commanders of Hezbollah’s elite military and missile firing units.
- Hezbollah’s threat comes more than a week after it announced it was ready to engage in cease-fire talks with Israel and previously vowed that it would stop its attacks until it agreed to end the war in Gaza – despite firing missiles over the border nearly every day since Oct. 8.
- It remains unclear if Israel will accept a cease-fire deal with Hezbollah as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated that the operations in Lebanon would not end until he is assured the terror group will no longer pose an active threat to northern Israel.
- The US and France have repeatedly urged the two sides to engage in a truce over fears the conflict would spark an all-out war in the Middle East.
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Important Takeaways:
- The US has issued a stark ultimatum to Israel, warning it must relax restrictions on the flow of aid into and around Gaza lest it face being cut off from arms imports.
- The threat, delivered in a letter penned by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, constitutes Washington’s strongest warning to Israel over the worsening humanitarian situation in the Palestine enclave.
- Washington’s top diplomat cited the strict controls Israel is imposing, including ‘burdensome and excessive’ restrictions on import materials and the denial of most humanitarian movements between northern and southern Gaza.
- ‘Failure to demonstrate a sustained commitment to implementing and maintaining these measures may have implications for US policy… and relevant US law,’ the letter concluded, citing a section of the Foreign Assistance Act, which prohibits military aid to countries that impede the delivery of humanitarian assistance.
- It comes at a time when the threat of escalation in the Middle East appears at an all-time high.
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Important Takeaways:
- The US Embassy in Beirut is calling on Americans to leave Lebanon as soon as possible as the war between Israel and Hezbollah intensifies.
- “US citizens in Lebanon are strongly encouraged to depart now,” the embassy said in a notice to citizens on Monday. “US citizens who choose not to depart at this time should prepare contingency plans should the situation deteriorate further.”
- Just 1,100 of the estimated 86,000 Americans who live in Lebanon have fled the nation so far, with the US setting aside thousands of seats on flights out of Lebanon since Sept. 27, according to the State Department.
- The embassy, however, warned that the flights “will not continue indefinitely,” urging all Americans in Lebanon to make a decision sooner rather than later.
- Embassy officials stressed that any plans for those who choose not to leave “should not rely on the US government for assisted departure or evacuations.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel is ‘the most concrete threat to regional and global peace’ says Erdoğan
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told local media on Saturday that Russia, Iran and Syria should do more to protect Syria’s “territorial integrity.”
- “It is essential that Russia, Iran and Syria take more effective measures against this situation, which poses the greatest threat to Syria’s territorial integrity,” Erdoğan said when asked about the recent alleged Israeli airstrike in the nation’s capital, Damascus.
- Shortly after the Hamas invasion and massacre of southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the Turkish president canceled a planned trip to Israel and refused to condemn Hamas.
- “Hamas is not a terror organization,” Erdoğan said at the time. “It is waging a battle for its land.”
- In November, Erdoğan slammed Israel’s ground incursion into Gaza, calling Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “the butcher of Gaza.”
- In May 2024, at Erdoğan’s urging, Turkey announced that it was halting all trade with Israel. That same month, it announced it would join South Africa’s lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice at The Hague.
- The country also sent its intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin, to Doha, Qatar to meet with Ismail Haniyeh, then the political leader of Hamas.
- In July, Erdoğan appeared to threaten an invasion of Israel in support of Palestinians in Gaza during a party speech.
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Important Takeaways:
- The UNSC “emphasized the need for diplomatic endeavors that would bring a durable end to the conflict and allow civilians on both sides of the Blue Line to return safely to their homes.”
- The United States, which has typically blocked such measures, backed the statement. The carefully worded statement did not mention either Israel or Hezbollah, but rather referred to “the parties.”
- UNSC members expressed their “deep concern for civilian casualties and suffering the destruction of civilian infrastructure and the rising number of internally displaced people.,” Baeriswyl said. “They called on all parties to abide by international humanitarian law,” she added.
- Earlier in the day, Netanyahu said, “We will continue to strike Hezbollah without mercy everywhere in Lebanon – including Beirut. Everything is according to operational considerations.
- “We have proven this recently and we will continue to prove it in the coming days as well,” he stated prior to holding security consultations later that night in the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv.
- For the second day in a row, he also called on the United Nations to remove the peacekeepers from the border during the IDF operation to remove Hezbollah from that area.
- [Netanyahu] “Hezbollah uses UNIFIL facilities and positions as cover while it attacks Israeli cities and communities. These attacks have claimed the lives of many Israelis, including yesterday,” Netanyahu said as he referred to the Hezbollah drone that attacked an airbase in Israel, wounding 63 people and killing four.
- “Israel has every right to defend itself against Hezbollah and will continue to do so,” Netanyahu stated.
- “We regret any harm done to UNIFIL personnel and the IDF is doing its utmost to prevent such incidents,” he stressed.
- “But the best way to assure the safety of UNIFIL personnel is for UNIFIL to heed Israel’s request and to temporarily get out of harm’s way,” Netanyahu said.
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Important Takeaways:
- Many Arab nations such as Jordan and the United Arab Emirates host U.S. bases and oil facilities vital to the world economy, and Iran’s warning about helping Israel is raising fears in the region that these sites could become targets.
- Both Hamas and Hezbollah are backed by Tehran, and Pezeshkian has portrayed Iran as “exercising restraint” because it waited for two months after Haniyeh’s death before attacking Israel.
- In Gaza and Lebanon, people were counting the cost of Israeli strikes. At least 22 people were killed and 117 injured in overnight attacks on Beirut, the Lebanese capital, according to the country’s health ministry.
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Important Takeaways:
- The region has been tensely awaiting a promised Israeli reprisal for an October 1 massive ballistic missile attack by Iran, with Washington attempting to coordinate and temper Israel’s reaction.
- “There were no big decisions” made by ministers, an Israeli source told The Times of Israel, adding “There is a desire from the Israelis to coordinate with the Americans” over the response, and that strategic discussions continue between the sides.
- The Prime Minister’s Office also told The Times of Israel that Gallant’s trip to the US to discuss Israel’s response has yet to be approved
- Jerusalem has pledged a significant retaliation, but Biden — who directed US forces to help thwart the Iranian attack — has expressed opposition to targeting Iran’s nuclear or oil production sites.
- Tehran said to threaten West’s Arab allies if they assist Israeli strike
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