Important Takeaways:
- Hezbollah’s leader warned Thursday that the conflict with Israel has entered a “new phase,” as he addressed mourners at the funeral of a commander from the group who was killed by an Israeli airstrike this week in Beirut.
- Iran has vowed retaliation against Israel for the strike that killed Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday in the Iranian capital of Tehran.
- Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said, “We … have entered a new phase that is different from the previous period.”
- “Do they expect that Hajj Ismail Haniyeh will be killed in Iran and Iran will remain silent?” he said of the Israelis.
- “The enemy and the one who is behind the enemy” — an apparent reference to Israel’s chief ally, the United States — “will have to wait for our coming response,” he said.
- In his speech, Nasrallah praised Shukur as a veteran commander and denied that Hezbollah carried out the deadly strike on the soccer field in the mainly Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan.
- “We have the courage to take responsibility for where we strike, even if it’s a mistake. If we made a mistake, we would admit and apologize,” he said, adding, “The enemy made itself the judge, jury, and executioner without any evidence.”
- Speaking Thursday in the Mongolian capital of Ulaaanbataar, Blinken appealed for countries to “make the right choices in the days ahead” and said a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza was the only way to begin to break the current cycle of violence and suffering. Blinken did not mention Israel, Iran or Hamas by name in his comments.
Read the original article by clicking here.
Important Takeaways:
- Analysts agree that both strikes hit too close to home to pass without a response, and were serious security breaches for both Iran and its proxy terror group.
- Calibrating that response to restore deterrence without sparking an even more damaging escalation may be the most delicate balancing act in nearly a year of teetering on the brink of a regional war.
- Tuesday’s rare strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed a top Hezbollah commander who Israel says was responsible for a missile strike on a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, killing 12 children.
- Less than 12 hours later, the Palestinian terror group Hamas — a Hezbollah ally also backed by Iran — announced that the chief of its political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, had been killed in an Israeli airstrike in Tehran
- “In the Israeli-Hezbollah confrontation, this is a major escalation whereby Hezbollah has to respond adequately in a more or less timely fashion” to restore deterrence.
- “We are in the territory of too many ‘ifs’ to avoid a war, and this doesn’t bode well.”
Read the original article by clicking here.
Important Takeaways:
- Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated by Israel early Wednesday morning in the heart of the Iranian capital hours after attending President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration. The details remain unclear, but it’s widely thought that he was killed by a precision drone strike at his residence. The world is watching to see whether Iran and/or its Resistance Axis allies will respond, what form it could take if so, and whether that would escalate tensions to a wider war.
- Here are five takeaways thus far:
- Israel’s Intelligence & Tactics Are Top-Notch
- Israel somehow or another obtained accurate intelligence about Haniyeh’s location despite it being top-secret and was then able to successfully assassinate him. Whatever air defenses (including electronic warfare ones) that Iran had deployed in its capital as part of the security measures to protect its high-profile guests failed to thwart this attack. This is a major embarrassment for the Islamic Republic and prompts speculation about whether it was due to utter incompetence or was partially an inside job.
- Iran Is Caught In A Dilemma Over How To Respond
- It’s unimaginable that Iran won’t respond to its Israeli enemy assassinating a high-profile allied guest in Tehran during the new president’s inauguration, but the dilemma is over the form that this response will take. Launching another drone and missile salvo against Israel like it did in the spring after the bombing of its consulate in Damascus is possible, though Israel could spin that as a failure if many of them are shot down like last time, the on-the-ground damage is minimal, and no high-profile targets are killed.
- Mutually Assured Destruction Hangs Heavy Over Everyone’s Head
- The response that Iran resorts to will be determined by its leadership’s understanding of how far they can go without triggering the “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) scenario, which both Israel and the Resistance Axis fear and is why they’ve thus far restrained themselves from waging all-out war. A repeat of spring’s salvo could remain below that threshold, but Iran might also respond in a different way that’s interpreted by Israel as an escalation, thus prompting its own escalation that could then lead to MAD.
- A Choreographed Response Might Therefore Be The Most “Rational”
- Duma member Dmitry Belik, whose claim to fame was helping Sevastopol reunify with Russia when he briefly served as the region’s acting head in spring 2014, described spring’s salvo as a “beautiful theatrical production”. If there’s any truth to his innuendo that Iran choreographed its response with the US and/or Israel to Israel’s bombing of its consulate in Syria, then it might also do the same after Haniyeh’s assassination, which could help Iran “save face” while averting an escalation towards MAD.
- …But There’s No Guarantee That Iran’s Allies Will “Stand Down”
- Hamas and Hezbollah are Iran’s allies but operate independently of it despite their close ties. There’s accordingly no guarantee that they’ll “stand down” and not respond in their own way if Iran sends another salvo to Israel regardless of whether or not it’s choreographed. After all, Hamas’ political chief was just killed, while one of Hezbollah’s top commanders was assassinated by Israel in Beirut the day prior. This makes the MAD risk even less manageable since those two might not share Iran’s calculations.
Read the original article by clicking here.
Important Takeaways:
- A major expansion underway inside Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facility could soon triple the site’s production of enriched uranium and give Tehran new options for quickly assembling a nuclear arsenal if it chooses to, according to confidential documents and analysis by weapons experts
- At Fordow alone, the expansion could allow Iran to accumulate several bombs’ worth of nuclear fuel every month, according to a technical analysis provided to The Washington Post. Though it is the smaller of Iran’s two uranium enrichment facilities, Fordow is regarded as particularly significant because its subterranean setting makes it nearly invulnerable to airstrikes.
- Iran already possesses a stockpile of about 300 pounds of highly enriched uranium that could be further refined into weapons-grade fuel for nuclear bombs within weeks, or perhaps days, U.S. intelligence officials say. Iran also is believed to have accumulated most of the technical know-how for a simple nuclear device, although it would probably take another two years to build a nuclear warhead that could be fitted onto a missile, according to intelligence officials and weapons experts.
- In private messages to the IAEA early last week, Iran’s atomic energy organization said Fordow was being outfitted with nearly 1,400 new centrifuges, machines used to make enriched uranium, according to two European diplomats briefed on the reports. The new equipment, made in Iran and networked together in eight assemblies known as cascades, was to be installed within four weeks. A leaked draft of the Iranian plan was initially reported by Reuters.
Read the original article by clicking here.
Important Takeaways:
- Biden faces criticism for failing to impose pressure campaign on Iran as it races toward nuclear weapon
- After the head of the United Nation’s atomic watchdog agency warned that Iran has enough uranium to produce “several” nuclear bombs, a firebrand Iranian lawmaker declared on Friday that the Islamic Republic of Iran possesses atomic weapons.
- “In my opinion, we have achieved nuclear weapons, but we do not announce it. It means our policy is to possess nuclear bombs, but our declared policy is currently within the framework of the JCPOA,” Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani told the Iran-based outlet Rouydad 24 on Friday, according to an article published by the independent news organization Iran International in London.
- The JCPOA provides massive economic sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for assurances it will not, within a limited time period, build a nuclear weapon.
- Ardestani, who was re-elected to Iran’s quasi-parliament in March, added, “The reason is that when countries want to confront others, their capabilities must be compatible, and Iran’s compatibility with America and Israel means that Iran must have nuclear weapons”
- The Iranian parliament member noted, “In a climate where Russia has attacked Ukraine and Israel has attacked Gaza, and Iran is a staunch supporter of the Resistance Front, it is natural for the containment system to require that Iran possess nuclear bombs. However, whether Iran declares it is another matter.” Fox News Digital sent press queries to Iran’s Foreign Ministry in Tehran and its U.N. mission in New York.
- Just two days before Ardestani’s announcement, the president of the Iranian Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Kamal Kharrazi, told Al-Jazeera Network Qatar, “I announced two years ago, in an interview with Al-Jazeera TV, that Iran had the absorptive capacity and the capability to produce a nuclear bomb. Iran still has that capability, but we have not made the decision to produce a nuclear bomb
Read the original article by clicking here.
Important Takeaways:
- How could Iran’s attack on Israel affect gas prices? What you should know
- Iran, one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil, has long been engaged in a shadow war with Israel, but there have been concerns the Israel-Hamas war could become a broader regional conflict.
- Any ripple effects on gas prices depend on the countries’ next moves and whether they seek further retaliation against the backdrop of an already raging war, said Michael Walden, Reynolds Distinguished Professor Emeritus at North Carolina State University.
- “We’re uncertain about what’s going to happen,” he said. “And so the impacts are going to be very dependent upon what does evolve.”
- The average price for a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. was $3.63 as of Monday, according to AAA, up almost 4 cents from a week earlier and 22 cents from a month ago. The price was down 3 cents from a year ago, however.
- Oil benchmarks had risen on Friday in anticipation of Iran’s retaliatory assault, with prices soaring to their highest since October.
- If you are planning a last-minute road trip, though, it may be worth going somewhere closer or putting off travel until a later date. Drivers who can take other modes of transportation, such as walking or biking, could consider that as well.
Read the original article by clicking here.
Important Takeaways:
- Iran’s foreign ministry on Sunday summoned the ambassadors of Britain, France, and Germany to question what it referred to as their “irresponsible stance” regarding Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on Israel, Reuters reported, citing Iranian media.
- The three European countries condemned Iran’s drone and missile attack against Israel, which went through Saturday night into Sunday and were in retaliation for a bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria on April 1, which has been blamed on Israel.
- Later, the director for Western Europe at Iran’s foreign ministry accused the three countries of “double standards”, noting they opposed earlier this month a Russian-drafted UN Security Council statement that would have condemned the alleged Israeli attack in Syria.
- Tehran Warns Against Israeli Counterstrike, Threatens US Bases If Washington Assists
- Just hours after the unprecedented Iranian missile and drone attack against Israel, top Iranian military leaders threatened to launch even larger attacks if the Jewish state decides to launch a counterstrike.
- Bagheri further warned the U.S. that Iran would attack U.S. military bases in the Middle East if Washington took part in facilitating an Israeli counterstrike on Iranian soil.
- IRGC Commander Hossein Salami indicated a shift in strategy when he stated that Saturday’s attack has created a “new equation.” He warned that Iran would launch similar attacks from its territory in response to any future Israeli military actions that threaten Iranian interests in the Middle East and beyond.
- Israeli President Calls Iran’s Attack A ‘Declaration Of War’ Says Israel Is ‘Considering All Options’
- While emphasizing that Israel is not seeking war, Herzog characterized the attack as a “declaration of war” and underscored the need for a firm response to Iranian aggression.
- While expressing Israel’s restraint and ongoing dialogue with international partners, Herzog stressed that all options are being considered to address the threat posed by Iran. He reiterated that Israel’s primary objective is the protection and defense of its people and reiterated that the country is not seeking to escalate the conflict into full-scale war.
Read the original article by clicking here.
Important Takeaways:
- The U.S. government is intensifying a manhunt for an Iranian intelligence operative who the Federal Bureau of Investigation believes has been plotting to assassinate current and former American officials, including one-time Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
- The FBI’s Miami field office on Friday issued a public alert seeking information on Majid Dastjani Farahani, a suspected member of Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and Security, who the Bureau alleged has been recruiting “individuals for operations in the U.S., to include lethal targeting of current/former USG officials.”
- The Iranian government has repeatedly vowed over the past four years to avenge the 2020 death of Major General Qasem Soleimani – a commander of Iran’s elite Qods Force – whom the Trump administration assassinated in Baghdad using a drone strike on his convoy.
- The DoJ indicted members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC) in 2022 for allegedly plotting to murder Trump’s former national security adviser, John Bolton
- U.S. officials told Semafor they believe Pompeo and Trump’s special envoy for Iran, Brian Hook, are also on Tehran’s hit list. The U.S. government is currently providing both men with around-the-clock security due to the severity of the threat.
Read the original article by clicking here.
Important Takeaways:
- Tehran warns Biden that if US strikes Iranian soil in retaliation for death of three soldiers the Islamist regime will hit back at American targets across the Middle East – sparking all-out war between the foes
- Tehran has told Washington, via intermediaries, that it will attack U.S. targets in the Middle East if the Pentagon launches strikes on Iranian soil
- The grim warning came as the world holds its breath to see how Joe Biden will respond to the killing of three U.S. soldiers by Iranian-backed militias.
- Joe Biden on Tuesday said that he had made up his mind about how to respond to Sunday’s killing of three U.S. service members by an Iranian-backed militia
- The strikes are expected to take place over time, and in waves: targets could include Iranian naval vessels in the Persian Gulf, or a cyberattack
- The Pentagon has existing plans for potential strikes on Iranian missile sites and air bases, in case a conflict broke out between Iran and Israel. Israel has been carrying out high-profile bombing runs, practicing attacks on the Natanz nuclear site and the underground facility at Fordow.
- The cyberattack would disable Iran’s air defenses, communications systems and crucial parts of its power grid.
Read the original article by clicking here.
Important Takeaways:
- GOP hawks press Biden to target Iran directly over soldiers’ deaths
- “Last night, three U.S. service members were killed —and many wounded — during an unmanned aerial drone attack on our forces stationed in northeast Jordan near the Syria border,” Biden said in a statement on Sunday morning.
- Biden said the U.S. is “still gathering the facts of this attack,” but “we know it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq.”
- According to U.S. central command, 25 service members were wounded in the attack.
- What they’re saying: Senate Minority Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) called for “serious, crippling costs” to Iran, “not only on front-line terrorist proxies, but on their Iranian sponsors who wear American blood as a badge of honor.”
- Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), said in a statement the attacks the U.S. has carried out on Iranian proxies outside Iran “will not deter Iranian aggression,” calling to “strike targets of significance inside Iran.”
- “The only answer to these attacks must be devastating military retaliation against Iran’s terrorist forces, both in Iran and across the Middle East,” said Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.). “Anything less will confirm Joe Biden as a coward unworthy of being commander-in-chief.”
- John Cornyn, in a post on the social media site X, said: “Target Tehran,” later specifying that he wants the U.S. to strike Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. and its Quds Force branch.
Read the original article by clicking here.
