Important Takeaways:
- As fighting continues in Lebanon and Hezbollah continues to launch rockets and UAVs at Israel, the Defense Ministry claims it has substantially reduced Hezbollah’s arsenal. This as the Knesset is under criticism for voting to ban UNRWA from operating in Israel.
- Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claims the Iranian-backed Hezbollah’s rocket supply has been reduced to just 20 percent of what it was before the October 7th, 2023, Hamas attack.
- That’s an especially important number because Hezbollah’s chief threat has been its ability to rain down tens of thousands of missiles on Israelis.
- Some in the Israel Defense Forces want to wrap up the invasion of Lebanon soon. Still, other Israelis want to see it continue until Hezbollah has been eliminated as a threat to Israel’s northern border communities. They’ve been largely evacuated for more than a year.
- After the killing of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah and his successor, Hezbollah announced it has a new leader, Sheikh Naim Kassem, who has been with the terror group since its start in 1982.
- He’s hiding out in Iran, hoping to avoid the fate of the two previous leaders who were killed by Israeli airstrikes in Beirut.
- As for the Iranian regime controlling the proxy wars from Tehran, it is threatening to respond to Israel’s retaliatory strike on some of the country’s military sites this past weekend, making clear the timing will be made by the Iranians.
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Important Takeaways:
- Strike on oil or nuclear sites could lead Tehran to take drastic measures for fear of seeming weak, but attack on weapons depots or military bases may not warrant further response
- Citing four Iranian officials, The New York Times reported that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered Iran’s armed forces to formulate numerous plans based on the potential outcome of an expected retaliatory attack by Israel, which has been weeks in the making. “Iran has ordered the armed forces to be prepared for war but also to try to avoid it,” the report said.
- The officials, two of whom belong to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said that if Israel were to inflict significant damage on sensitive sites, such as oil and nuclear facilities, or if it were to target senior Iranian officials, Iran would without a doubt escalate further.
- In this instance, the sources said, Iran could fire a barrage of up to 1,000 ballistic missiles — a significant step up in comparison to the 200 it fired on October 1 — or even disrupt global energy supplies and international trade routes.
- However, if Jerusalem were to limit its response to striking weapons warehouses or military bases, Tehran may conclude that it is in its best interest to do nothing, bringing an end to the latest round of direct conflict between the two countries.
- Israel’s plans for retaliation were said to have been thrown off course recently after confidential US documents on the matter were leaked last Friday, revealing US observations of measures taken by the Israeli Air Force on October 15-16 in the lead-up to an attack.cn
- Amid reports that Israel had been forced to change tactics and delay its plans as a result of the leak, Army Radio quoted an unnamed Israeli official on Thursday who insisted that this was not the case.
- “There’s no connection between the leaking of the documents from the Pentagon and the choice of timing for the attack on Iran,” the official said.
- While several windows had been discussed, the official said that no final date had been set for Israel’s response and the decision would be made “according to operational opportunities.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Many Arab nations such as Jordan and the United Arab Emirates host U.S. bases and oil facilities vital to the world economy, and Iran’s warning about helping Israel is raising fears in the region that these sites could become targets.
- Both Hamas and Hezbollah are backed by Tehran, and Pezeshkian has portrayed Iran as “exercising restraint” because it waited for two months after Haniyeh’s death before attacking Israel.
- In Gaza and Lebanon, people were counting the cost of Israeli strikes. At least 22 people were killed and 117 injured in overnight attacks on Beirut, the Lebanese capital, according to the country’s health ministry.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin met Iran’s president on Friday, at a time when Tehran is supplying weapons for Moscow’s war in Ukraine and concerns are growing over escalating attacks between Israel and Iran and its militant allies.
- “We have many opportunities now, and we must help each other in our relationships. Our principles, our positions in the international arena are similar to yours,” Pezeshkian said at the start of his meeting with Putin.
- Pezeshkian said that Israel’s “savage attacks,” on Lebanon are “beyond description.”
- Both countries were accused this week by Ken McCallum, the head of Britain’s domestic intelligence agency MI5, of carrying out a “staggering” rise in attempts at assassination, sabotage and other crimes on U.K. soil.
- McCallum said his agents and police have tackled 20 “potentially lethal” plots backed by Iran since 2022 and warned that it could expand its targets in the U.K. if conflicts in the Middle East deepen.
- Speaking Friday as the forum opened, Putin said he wants to create a “new world order” of Moscow’s allies to counter the West, according to video provided by the Kremlin`
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Important Takeaways:
- Hezbollah’s leader warned Thursday that the conflict with Israel has entered a “new phase,” as he addressed mourners at the funeral of a commander from the group who was killed by an Israeli airstrike this week in Beirut.
- Iran has vowed retaliation against Israel for the strike that killed Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday in the Iranian capital of Tehran.
- Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said, “We … have entered a new phase that is different from the previous period.”
- “Do they expect that Hajj Ismail Haniyeh will be killed in Iran and Iran will remain silent?” he said of the Israelis.
- “The enemy and the one who is behind the enemy” — an apparent reference to Israel’s chief ally, the United States — “will have to wait for our coming response,” he said.
- In his speech, Nasrallah praised Shukur as a veteran commander and denied that Hezbollah carried out the deadly strike on the soccer field in the mainly Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan.
- “We have the courage to take responsibility for where we strike, even if it’s a mistake. If we made a mistake, we would admit and apologize,” he said, adding, “The enemy made itself the judge, jury, and executioner without any evidence.”
- Speaking Thursday in the Mongolian capital of Ulaaanbataar, Blinken appealed for countries to “make the right choices in the days ahead” and said a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza was the only way to begin to break the current cycle of violence and suffering. Blinken did not mention Israel, Iran or Hamas by name in his comments.
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Important Takeaways:
- Analysts agree that both strikes hit too close to home to pass without a response, and were serious security breaches for both Iran and its proxy terror group.
- Calibrating that response to restore deterrence without sparking an even more damaging escalation may be the most delicate balancing act in nearly a year of teetering on the brink of a regional war.
- Tuesday’s rare strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed a top Hezbollah commander who Israel says was responsible for a missile strike on a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, killing 12 children.
- Less than 12 hours later, the Palestinian terror group Hamas — a Hezbollah ally also backed by Iran — announced that the chief of its political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, had been killed in an Israeli airstrike in Tehran
- “In the Israeli-Hezbollah confrontation, this is a major escalation whereby Hezbollah has to respond adequately in a more or less timely fashion” to restore deterrence.
- “We are in the territory of too many ‘ifs’ to avoid a war, and this doesn’t bode well.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated by Israel early Wednesday morning in the heart of the Iranian capital hours after attending President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration. The details remain unclear, but it’s widely thought that he was killed by a precision drone strike at his residence. The world is watching to see whether Iran and/or its Resistance Axis allies will respond, what form it could take if so, and whether that would escalate tensions to a wider war.
- Here are five takeaways thus far:
- Israel’s Intelligence & Tactics Are Top-Notch
- Israel somehow or another obtained accurate intelligence about Haniyeh’s location despite it being top-secret and was then able to successfully assassinate him. Whatever air defenses (including electronic warfare ones) that Iran had deployed in its capital as part of the security measures to protect its high-profile guests failed to thwart this attack. This is a major embarrassment for the Islamic Republic and prompts speculation about whether it was due to utter incompetence or was partially an inside job.
- Iran Is Caught In A Dilemma Over How To Respond
- It’s unimaginable that Iran won’t respond to its Israeli enemy assassinating a high-profile allied guest in Tehran during the new president’s inauguration, but the dilemma is over the form that this response will take. Launching another drone and missile salvo against Israel like it did in the spring after the bombing of its consulate in Damascus is possible, though Israel could spin that as a failure if many of them are shot down like last time, the on-the-ground damage is minimal, and no high-profile targets are killed.
- Mutually Assured Destruction Hangs Heavy Over Everyone’s Head
- The response that Iran resorts to will be determined by its leadership’s understanding of how far they can go without triggering the “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) scenario, which both Israel and the Resistance Axis fear and is why they’ve thus far restrained themselves from waging all-out war. A repeat of spring’s salvo could remain below that threshold, but Iran might also respond in a different way that’s interpreted by Israel as an escalation, thus prompting its own escalation that could then lead to MAD.
- A Choreographed Response Might Therefore Be The Most “Rational”
- Duma member Dmitry Belik, whose claim to fame was helping Sevastopol reunify with Russia when he briefly served as the region’s acting head in spring 2014, described spring’s salvo as a “beautiful theatrical production”. If there’s any truth to his innuendo that Iran choreographed its response with the US and/or Israel to Israel’s bombing of its consulate in Syria, then it might also do the same after Haniyeh’s assassination, which could help Iran “save face” while averting an escalation towards MAD.
- …But There’s No Guarantee That Iran’s Allies Will “Stand Down”
- Hamas and Hezbollah are Iran’s allies but operate independently of it despite their close ties. There’s accordingly no guarantee that they’ll “stand down” and not respond in their own way if Iran sends another salvo to Israel regardless of whether or not it’s choreographed. After all, Hamas’ political chief was just killed, while one of Hezbollah’s top commanders was assassinated by Israel in Beirut the day prior. This makes the MAD risk even less manageable since those two might not share Iran’s calculations.
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Important Takeaways:
- A major expansion underway inside Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facility could soon triple the site’s production of enriched uranium and give Tehran new options for quickly assembling a nuclear arsenal if it chooses to, according to confidential documents and analysis by weapons experts
- At Fordow alone, the expansion could allow Iran to accumulate several bombs’ worth of nuclear fuel every month, according to a technical analysis provided to The Washington Post. Though it is the smaller of Iran’s two uranium enrichment facilities, Fordow is regarded as particularly significant because its subterranean setting makes it nearly invulnerable to airstrikes.
- Iran already possesses a stockpile of about 300 pounds of highly enriched uranium that could be further refined into weapons-grade fuel for nuclear bombs within weeks, or perhaps days, U.S. intelligence officials say. Iran also is believed to have accumulated most of the technical know-how for a simple nuclear device, although it would probably take another two years to build a nuclear warhead that could be fitted onto a missile, according to intelligence officials and weapons experts.
- In private messages to the IAEA early last week, Iran’s atomic energy organization said Fordow was being outfitted with nearly 1,400 new centrifuges, machines used to make enriched uranium, according to two European diplomats briefed on the reports. The new equipment, made in Iran and networked together in eight assemblies known as cascades, was to be installed within four weeks. A leaked draft of the Iranian plan was initially reported by Reuters.
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Important Takeaways:
- Biden faces criticism for failing to impose pressure campaign on Iran as it races toward nuclear weapon
- After the head of the United Nation’s atomic watchdog agency warned that Iran has enough uranium to produce “several” nuclear bombs, a firebrand Iranian lawmaker declared on Friday that the Islamic Republic of Iran possesses atomic weapons.
- “In my opinion, we have achieved nuclear weapons, but we do not announce it. It means our policy is to possess nuclear bombs, but our declared policy is currently within the framework of the JCPOA,” Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani told the Iran-based outlet Rouydad 24 on Friday, according to an article published by the independent news organization Iran International in London.
- The JCPOA provides massive economic sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for assurances it will not, within a limited time period, build a nuclear weapon.
- Ardestani, who was re-elected to Iran’s quasi-parliament in March, added, “The reason is that when countries want to confront others, their capabilities must be compatible, and Iran’s compatibility with America and Israel means that Iran must have nuclear weapons”
- The Iranian parliament member noted, “In a climate where Russia has attacked Ukraine and Israel has attacked Gaza, and Iran is a staunch supporter of the Resistance Front, it is natural for the containment system to require that Iran possess nuclear bombs. However, whether Iran declares it is another matter.” Fox News Digital sent press queries to Iran’s Foreign Ministry in Tehran and its U.N. mission in New York.
- Just two days before Ardestani’s announcement, the president of the Iranian Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, Kamal Kharrazi, told Al-Jazeera Network Qatar, “I announced two years ago, in an interview with Al-Jazeera TV, that Iran had the absorptive capacity and the capability to produce a nuclear bomb. Iran still has that capability, but we have not made the decision to produce a nuclear bomb
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Important Takeaways:
- How could Iran’s attack on Israel affect gas prices? What you should know
- Iran, one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil, has long been engaged in a shadow war with Israel, but there have been concerns the Israel-Hamas war could become a broader regional conflict.
- Any ripple effects on gas prices depend on the countries’ next moves and whether they seek further retaliation against the backdrop of an already raging war, said Michael Walden, Reynolds Distinguished Professor Emeritus at North Carolina State University.
- “We’re uncertain about what’s going to happen,” he said. “And so the impacts are going to be very dependent upon what does evolve.”
- The average price for a gallon of regular gas in the U.S. was $3.63 as of Monday, according to AAA, up almost 4 cents from a week earlier and 22 cents from a month ago. The price was down 3 cents from a year ago, however.
- Oil benchmarks had risen on Friday in anticipation of Iran’s retaliatory assault, with prices soaring to their highest since October.
- If you are planning a last-minute road trip, though, it may be worth going somewhere closer or putting off travel until a later date. Drivers who can take other modes of transportation, such as walking or biking, could consider that as well.
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