Important Takeaways:
- President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet with his national security team in the Situation Room later on Monday amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel.
- The Islamic Republic could attack Israel in the next 24 to 48 hours following a major attack by Hezbollah that left two IDF soldiers injured, top western diplomats have warned.
- Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told the G7 yesterday that an attack in response to Israel killing Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Fuad Shukr in Beirut, was imminent, as reported by Axios.
- It would be the second time during the growing crisis in the Middle East that Iran has directly attacked Israel, the first being in April when it sent a salvo of missiles and drones overnight.
- But unlike the April attack, the US admitted in a private call with G7 members that it doesn’t know what the expected retaliatory strike will look like.
- Nevertheless, Iran has clearly signaled that it intends to attack its foe, claiming it has the ‘legal right’ to respond to Haniyeh’s assassination, with foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani telling a news conference: ‘No one has the right to doubt Iran’s legal right to punish the Zionist regime.’
- The threats from Iran comes just hours after Hezbollah, backed by the Iranian regime, launched a silo of 30 missiles from Lebanon towards upper Galilee.
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Important Takeaways:
- Sources said Blinken indicated that while the U.S. does not know the exact time of the attacks, they could begin as early as the next 24-48 hours.
- Blinken coordinated the call with U.S. allies in an effort to put as much last-minute diplomatic pressure as possible on Iran and Hezbollah to temper any potential retaliation against Israel, according to Axios. Sources say Blinken emphasized the importance of preventing an all-out war.
- Blinken allegedly indicated that the United States is prepared for retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah in response to the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and military commander Fuad Shukr. But, he said, it is unclear what form the relation will take.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a meeting late Sunday with heads of the military and intelligence services, said Israel is determined to stand up to Iran “on every front and in every arena — near and far.”
- “Iran and its minions are looking to surround us in a stranglehold of terrorism … Whoever seeks to harm us will pay a very heavy price,” Netanyahu said ahead of the meeting.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel is already in a “multifront war” with Iran and its proxies, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a Cabinet meeting Sunday, as the United States and allies prepared to defend Israel from an expected counterstrike and prevent an even more destructive regional conflict.
- Tensions have soared following nearly 10 months of war in Gaza and the killing last week of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and Hamas’ top political leader in Iran. Iran and its allies have blamed Israel and threatened retaliation. Hamas says it has begun discussions on choosing a new leader.
- Netanyahu said Israel was ready for any scenario. Jordan’s foreign minister was making a rare trip to Iran as part of diplomatic efforts — “We want the escalation to end,” Ayman Safadi said — while the Pentagon has moved significant assets to the region.
- In Israel, some prepared bomb shelters and recalled Iran’s unprecedented direct military assault in April following a suspected Israeli strike that killed two Iranian generals.
- Hezbollah says it’s aimed at relieving pressure on fellow Iran-backed ally Hamas. A growing number of countries, including the U.S., are encouraging citizens to leave Lebanon after last week’s killing of a senior commander.
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Important Takeaways:
- President Joe Biden is weighing more US defenses in the Middle East as the US prepares for an Iranian retaliation against Israel that officials say could include an attack on American forces.
- In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Thursday, Biden said the US would “support Israel’s defense against threats,” which would include “new defensive US military deployments,” according to a readout of the call.
- The statement did not detail what new deployments would occur ahead of an anticipated Iranian attack in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
- The USS Wasp amphibious assault ship and several other Navy vessels are currently operating in the Mediterranean Sea. The group includes a Marine expeditionary unit capable of carrying out an evacuation of American citizens from Lebanon if the US ordered such an evacuation.
- The US is expecting the anticipated Iranian attack may be similar to the barrage of ballistic missiles and drones launched against Israel on April 13, officials said. But this attack could be larger and more complicated than before, including the possibility of a coordinated attack with Iranian proxies from multiple directions.
- “Because they have picked a fight with everyone, they don’t know where the response will come from … the response will come separately or coordinated,” Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech Thursday.
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Important Takeaways:
- Hezbollah’s leader warned Thursday that the conflict with Israel has entered a “new phase,” as he addressed mourners at the funeral of a commander from the group who was killed by an Israeli airstrike this week in Beirut.
- Iran has vowed retaliation against Israel for the strike that killed Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday in the Iranian capital of Tehran.
- Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said, “We … have entered a new phase that is different from the previous period.”
- “Do they expect that Hajj Ismail Haniyeh will be killed in Iran and Iran will remain silent?” he said of the Israelis.
- “The enemy and the one who is behind the enemy” — an apparent reference to Israel’s chief ally, the United States — “will have to wait for our coming response,” he said.
- In his speech, Nasrallah praised Shukur as a veteran commander and denied that Hezbollah carried out the deadly strike on the soccer field in the mainly Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan.
- “We have the courage to take responsibility for where we strike, even if it’s a mistake. If we made a mistake, we would admit and apologize,” he said, adding, “The enemy made itself the judge, jury, and executioner without any evidence.”
- Speaking Thursday in the Mongolian capital of Ulaaanbataar, Blinken appealed for countries to “make the right choices in the days ahead” and said a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza was the only way to begin to break the current cycle of violence and suffering. Blinken did not mention Israel, Iran or Hamas by name in his comments.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel’s military on Thursday confirmed the death of Mohammed Deif, the leader of Hamas’ military wing — the third high-profile Hamas or Iran-linked figure it says it has killed in recent weeks.
- As head of the Qassam Brigades, Deif was believed to have been one of the masterminds of Hamas’ Oct. 7 terror attack on southern Israel
- The announcement came as the funeral was held for Hamas’ political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, a day after he was killed in Iran.
- As fears of an all-out war in the Middle East deepen, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces said what it called an “intelligence assessment” had confirmed that Deif had been killed when fighter jets struck an area in the city of Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip on July 13.
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Important Takeaways:
- Hamas called the IDF retaliatory strike on Beirut, targeting Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr a dangerous escalation, as the White House said Israel has a right to defend itself against Iranian back threats.
- “Our commitment to Israel’s security is ironclad and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Lebanese Hezbollah,” US National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said.
- “Israel has a right to defend itself against the severe threats it faces. “At the same time, the United States is continuing to work on a diplomatic solution to end these terrible attacks and allow citizens on both sides to safely return to their homes,” she stated.
- The Iranian proxy group Hamas, which operates in both Lebanon and Gaza said, “We strongly condemn the brutal Zionist aggression against Lebanon and the brotherly Lebanese people.”
- “We consider it a dangerous escalation for which the Nazi-Zionist occupation bears full responsibility,” it stated.
- The attack comes as Hamas and Israel are negotiating a hostage and ceasefire deal.
- US officials had urged Israel not to strike at Beirut in retaliation for the children’s death, even though the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah is located there.
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Important Takeaways:
- Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated by Israel early Wednesday morning in the heart of the Iranian capital hours after attending President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration. The details remain unclear, but it’s widely thought that he was killed by a precision drone strike at his residence. The world is watching to see whether Iran and/or its Resistance Axis allies will respond, what form it could take if so, and whether that would escalate tensions to a wider war.
- Here are five takeaways thus far:
- Israel’s Intelligence & Tactics Are Top-Notch
- Israel somehow or another obtained accurate intelligence about Haniyeh’s location despite it being top-secret and was then able to successfully assassinate him. Whatever air defenses (including electronic warfare ones) that Iran had deployed in its capital as part of the security measures to protect its high-profile guests failed to thwart this attack. This is a major embarrassment for the Islamic Republic and prompts speculation about whether it was due to utter incompetence or was partially an inside job.
- Iran Is Caught In A Dilemma Over How To Respond
- It’s unimaginable that Iran won’t respond to its Israeli enemy assassinating a high-profile allied guest in Tehran during the new president’s inauguration, but the dilemma is over the form that this response will take. Launching another drone and missile salvo against Israel like it did in the spring after the bombing of its consulate in Damascus is possible, though Israel could spin that as a failure if many of them are shot down like last time, the on-the-ground damage is minimal, and no high-profile targets are killed.
- Mutually Assured Destruction Hangs Heavy Over Everyone’s Head
- The response that Iran resorts to will be determined by its leadership’s understanding of how far they can go without triggering the “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) scenario, which both Israel and the Resistance Axis fear and is why they’ve thus far restrained themselves from waging all-out war. A repeat of spring’s salvo could remain below that threshold, but Iran might also respond in a different way that’s interpreted by Israel as an escalation, thus prompting its own escalation that could then lead to MAD.
- A Choreographed Response Might Therefore Be The Most “Rational”
- Duma member Dmitry Belik, whose claim to fame was helping Sevastopol reunify with Russia when he briefly served as the region’s acting head in spring 2014, described spring’s salvo as a “beautiful theatrical production”. If there’s any truth to his innuendo that Iran choreographed its response with the US and/or Israel to Israel’s bombing of its consulate in Syria, then it might also do the same after Haniyeh’s assassination, which could help Iran “save face” while averting an escalation towards MAD.
- …But There’s No Guarantee That Iran’s Allies Will “Stand Down”
- Hamas and Hezbollah are Iran’s allies but operate independently of it despite their close ties. There’s accordingly no guarantee that they’ll “stand down” and not respond in their own way if Iran sends another salvo to Israel regardless of whether or not it’s choreographed. After all, Hamas’ political chief was just killed, while one of Hezbollah’s top commanders was assassinated by Israel in Beirut the day prior. This makes the MAD risk even less manageable since those two might not share Iran’s calculations.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia warned Wednesday that the assassination in Iran of visiting Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh threatened a full “global conflict” — as the terror group called it “a grave escalation” and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened “harsh punishment” for Israel.
- “We resolutely condemn the attack that led to Mr. Haniyeh’s death,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said soon after Haniyeh was killed in an airstrike while in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president.
- “We believe that such action is aimed against attempts to establish peace in the region, and could significantly destabilize the already tense situation,” he said.
- Russian Foreign Ministry deputy spokesman Andrei Nastasin also said the killing “raise[d] the stakes” in tensions already rife over Israel’s war on the terror group after the Oct. 7 slaughter of more than 1,200.
- “The region is currently balancing on the brink of a global conflict,” Natasin said.
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Important Takeaways:
- As tensions escalate between Israel and Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon issued a video Monday urging Americans to leave the country before a crisis begins.
- “We recommend U.S. citizens develop a crisis plan of action and leave before a crisis begins,” Rena Bitter, U.S. assistant secretary of state for the bureau of consular affairs, said in a video posted on social media. “Should commercial air not be available, individuals already in Lebanon should be prepared to shelter in place for long periods of time.”
- Bitter said anyone planning to visit Lebanon should reconsider given the “difficulties that would hinder departure should conflict increase in the region.”
- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Monday, emphasizing the “importance of preventing escalation” and discussing efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to months of conflict.
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