Important Takeaways:
- Analysts agree that both strikes hit too close to home to pass without a response, and were serious security breaches for both Iran and its proxy terror group.
- Calibrating that response to restore deterrence without sparking an even more damaging escalation may be the most delicate balancing act in nearly a year of teetering on the brink of a regional war.
- Tuesday’s rare strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed a top Hezbollah commander who Israel says was responsible for a missile strike on a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, killing 12 children.
- Less than 12 hours later, the Palestinian terror group Hamas — a Hezbollah ally also backed by Iran — announced that the chief of its political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, had been killed in an Israeli airstrike in Tehran
- “In the Israeli-Hezbollah confrontation, this is a major escalation whereby Hezbollah has to respond adequately in a more or less timely fashion” to restore deterrence.
- “We are in the territory of too many ‘ifs’ to avoid a war, and this doesn’t bode well.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia warned Wednesday that the assassination in Iran of visiting Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh threatened a full “global conflict” — as the terror group called it “a grave escalation” and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened “harsh punishment” for Israel.
- “We resolutely condemn the attack that led to Mr. Haniyeh’s death,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said soon after Haniyeh was killed in an airstrike while in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president.
- “We believe that such action is aimed against attempts to establish peace in the region, and could significantly destabilize the already tense situation,” he said.
- Russian Foreign Ministry deputy spokesman Andrei Nastasin also said the killing “raise[d] the stakes” in tensions already rife over Israel’s war on the terror group after the Oct. 7 slaughter of more than 1,200.
- “The region is currently balancing on the brink of a global conflict,” Natasin said.
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Important Takeaways:
- The chaos in Washington, could sway Hamas to harden its stance in the hostage talks and give Iran that impression that now is the moment to increase military activity against Israel.
- Now, he is suddenly a lame duck president with only six months left in office, and there are calls for him to step down immediately in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris.
- This means that the issue of retrieving the hostages and forming a military coalition against Iran could almost immediately fall into her hands.
- The leadership chaos will be most acute in the next month, given that the question of Harris replacing Biden on the ticket can only be officially decided by the Democratic National Convention on August 19-22.
- This sudden potential shift in leadership comes as Biden and his administration are in the final phase of potentially closing a hostage deal.
- The problem is not just that Harris is untested on these issues, but more that Biden is now at his weakest point during a month when Israel most needs Washington to be in a strong leadership position.
- That will create difficulties with closing the hostage deal and make Israel seem more vulnerable to Iran.
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Important Takeaways:
- It apparently never occurred to either the heads of the UN or the EU to consider that if you are a terrorist organization that commits war crimes, you do not get to choose how a war that you started is waged against you.
- If you do not want a “bloodbath,” do not take hostages, hide them among civilians, try to prevent a rescue, then if they are rescued, profess shock at the fallout that you yourself have teed up.
- In contravention of the Geneva conventions, Hamas has refused to allow the Red Cross to check on the welfare of the hostages. One can imagine why.
- To this day, there seems little-to-no interest in the fate or condition of the hostages still in Gaza. Instead, there is denial that the October 7 atrocities even took place, compared to an almost obsessive regard for the safety of, and humanitarian aid for Gazans. When the UN is unable to deliver the aid, Israel, not the UN, is blamed.
- The Hamas murders, rapes, burning alive of babies and abductions – all the reasons why Israel was forced to go to war with Hamas to begin with — have retreated into the background.
- What seems to matter instead to those who set the political and media agendas is to use the Hamas war once again to demonize the Jews as the world’s most inhuman people for wanting to live peacefully on their historical land without daily massacres from Iran and its proxies — Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and the Houthis — which apparently plan to encircle them in a “Ring of Fire” — “six fronts of aggression
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Important Takeaways:
- A new so-called “moderate” Iranian president has been chosen, “voted freely” by the people… or not.
- There are two things to know about any presidential election in Iran. Number one, you can have the charade, but any winner in the Iranian presidential elections is handpicked by the Supreme Leader of Iran. If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei doesn’t want you, you are not getting in that slot as Iran’s president. Remember, the supreme leader of Iran is exactly what his name suggests: he is the “supreme leader” who rules over the nation with an iron fist.
- The Iranian president is essentially a figurehead in charge of the day-to-day “political game,” and, in some respects, he is the regime’s face to the world. Iran’s new face is Masoud Pezeshkian.
- The second thing to know about Iran’s elections is that if the mainstream media is hailing the victor as a “moderate” or “reformist,” then you can bet your bottom dollar that he is anything but. Masoud Pezeshkian keeps to the same old radical standard of every one of his predecessors, including the Butcher of Tehran, Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May alongside Iran’s Foreign Minister.
- When the supreme leader wants to present a certain face to the world, that will be reflected in the Iranian president. This time around is telling because Iran is sprinting to the finish line in its nuclear program. If they have a fire-breathing radical at the helm, it may result in more scrutiny of the regime.
- The one place where these Iranian presidents will drop their guard is talking about Israel. There’s no semblance of moderation, charade, or facade when it comes to their rhetoric against the Jewish State.
- However, Iran’s radical anti-Israel stance doesn’t seem to bother the mainstream media. You have got to love the way this article in the UK Telegraph starts, “Iran’s new moderate president told Hezbollah’s leader that he will continue to support the terror group and other regional ‘resistance movements’ against Israel.”
- How did he possibly gain this “moderate” and “reformist” moniker?
- …the illusion of “moderate” makes them feel better. It’s much more pleasant to convince themselves that the threat of Iran has diminished with its new president.
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Important Takeaways:
- The Lebanese Hezbollah group said it launched over 200 rockets on Thursday at several military bases in Israel in retaliation for a strike that killed one of its senior commanders.
- The attack by the Iran-backed militant group was one of the largest in the months long conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with tensions escalating in recent weeks.
- Israel on Wednesday acknowledged that it had killed Mohammad Naameh Nasser, who headed one of Hezbollah’s three regional divisions in southern Lebanon, a day earlier.
- The Israeli military said “numerous projectiles and suspicious aerial targets” had entered its territory from Lebanon, many of which it said were intercepted. It confirmed the death of one soldier in the barrage.
- After Hezbollah’s attack, Israel struck various towns in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military said it hit Hezbollah’s “military structures” in the southern border towns of Ramyeh and Houla.
- Israeli jets also broke the sound barrier over the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and other areas in the country.
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Important Takeaways:
- Iran vows to back Hezbollah in fight with Israel as IRGC general renews threat of imminent missile strike
- Iran vowed on Tuesday to back the terrorist organization Hezbollah “by all means” against Israel if Jerusalem launches an offensive in neighboring Lebanon
- “All Lebanese people, Arab countries and members of the Axis of Resistance will support Lebanon against Israel,” he said in an interview with the Financial Times. “There would be a chance of expansion of the war to the whole region, in which all countries including Iran would become engaged.”
- “In that situation, we would have no choice, but to support Hezbollah by all means,” he added.
- Kharrazi noted that “the expansion of war is not in the interest of anyone – not Iran or the U.S.,” but his comments came just one day after a top Iranian commander said he was itching for the opportunity to levy more strikes against Israel
- Speaking to the families of Palestinians killed during the fight in the Gaza Strip on Monday, Brigadier General of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force Amir Ali Hajizadeh said he is “hopeful” another strike will be carried out against Jerusalem following the first attack in April.
- “We are hopeful of the arrival of the opportunity for [conducting] Operation True Promise 2,” Hajizadeh said, according to Iranian-owned media outlet Mehr News Agency.
- The comments were in reference to the more than 300 drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles Tehran reportedly fired at Israel on April 14, the majority of which were stopped by Israeli and U.S. forces.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel’s military leadership wants to see a ceasefire in Gaza, even if it leaves the Hamas terror group ruling the Strip, The New York Times reported on Monday, citing six current and former security officials.
- “I don’t know who those unnamed parties are, but I’m here to make it unequivocally clear: it won’t happen,” said Netanyahu
- “We will end the war only after we have achieved all of its goals, including the elimination of Hamas and the release of all our hostages.”
- The Israel Defense Force also responded to the report, saying it was “determined to keep fighting until it achieves the goals of the war, the destruction of Hamas’s military and governance capabilities, bringing back our hostages, and safely returning residents in the north and south to their homes.
- An end to the fighting in the south would open the door for Hezbollah to hold its fire. The Iran-backed Shiite group has pledged to keep striking Israel as long as the war against Hamas in Gaza continues.
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Important Takeaways:
- In a short interview with LifeSiteNews, Colonel Douglas Macgregor sounded the alarm about an Israeli attack on Hezbollah that could well widen the war, as well as the escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
- We thank Colonel Macgregor for this interview, whose answers he wrote in the middle of last night.
- In recent weeks, you have sounded the alarm on the situation in Israel with regard to Hezbollah. What do you see happening very soon and when do you think it will happen?
- [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu must escalate or admit defeat. Attacking Hezbollah presents him with the opportunity to entangle American military power in his war for Jewish supremacy in the Near East. The prospect of employing U.S. military power (air and naval forces) against Israel’s enemies is probably appealing to Israelis.
- What will be the effects on the region in the Middle East and in the world should such an attack by Israel on Hezbollah take place within the next couple days?
- I expect the assault on Hezbollah to begin any time after June 24. The effects will be profound. More Muslims will flee to Europe. The economic life of the region will be destroyed, and Russia + China and Iran will likely directly engage Israeli and U.S. forces involved in the war.
- Do you expect Israel to use nuclear weapons?
- The IDF [Israel Defense Forces] can employ tactical nuclear weapons. Given the density of Hezbollah defenses and the numbers of rockets and missiles Hezbollah can launch against targets in Israel, a tactical nuclear weapon is the most appealing option. Heavy casualties in Gaza have reduced IDF fighting power. Israel cannot afford the heavy losses that systematic IDF conventional attacks on Southern Lebanon would produce. However, the use of these weapons would likely precipitate massive Iranian missile attacks against Israel in retaliation. From there the war will spread and other nation states will turn out to have nuclear weapons. Instead of abruptly ending the war as the Israelis hope, it will widen and lengthen the war with ominous implications for Israel’s very existence.
- What would you tell the leaders of our country in light of the escalation in both conflict regions, Israel/Palestine and Ukraine/Russia?
- Washington is taking unacceptable risks in its relations with Moscow. It would be wise as well as humane to end the suffering in Ukraine. It is time for the [U.S. government] to admit defeat and reach an accommodation with Moscow that ends the war in Ukraine.
- Meanwhile, Israel is overreaching. It runs the risk of war with Iran and the whole region if it acts in Southern Lebanon as anticipated above. Washington has no strategic interest that justifies a regional war with Islam in the Near East. If Washington persists, it will discover that Russia will not abandon Iran and that many other countries, including China, will line up in support of Iran and Russia against Washington.
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Important Takeaways:
- Lebanon and Israel have regularly traded cross-border fire since the start of the Jewish state’s war against Palestinian militant group Hamas — which, like Hezbollah, is backed by Iran — in the Gaza Strip.
- Fire exchanges have intensified since an Israeli airstrike last week killed a senior Hezbollah commander
- Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said: “Israel knows very well that no place will be safe from our missiles and drones”
- He added that Hezbollah has now “obtained new weapons,” but did not share any more details.
- The Hezbollah leader also threatened war against the Mediterranean island of Cyprus, if the European Union member permits Israel to launch military operations from its territory.
- Nasrallah’s speech fans the flames of increasingly heated rhetoric over the past week, as the spike in missiles traded between Israel and Lebanon raises concerns of a wider conflict in the Middle East.
- Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz also warned that his country is now “very close to the moment of decision to change the rules against Hezbollah and Lebanon.”
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