Important Takeaways:
- Along with a surge of combat aircraft and warships, President Biden dispatched three of his top Mideast advisers, including CIA Director Bill Burns, to the region this week to try to delay Iranian and Hezbollah military retaliation against Israel, and to use that borrowed time to craft an offramp from the collision course that ultimately risks a regional war that could draw in U.S. forces.
- But it is unclear how long Iran and its proxies may hold off. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Thursday that an Iranian attack could come with “little or no warning, and certainly could come in the coming days.”
- But multiple sources in the region told CBS News that Iran’s government continues to internally debate whether to use military force as it did on April 13, when it launched hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel, or whether to conduct a covert intelligence operation.
- The U.S. assesses that Hezbollah could launch an attack with little to no warning.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel is preparing for a large-scale military attack from Iran, defense minister Yoav Gallant, has told his US counterpart.
- It comes as the US defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, has ordered a nuclear-powered guided-missile submarine to the Middle East and is telling the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to sail more quickly to the area, as well
- The US and other allies continue to push for Israel and Hamas to agree to a ceasefire agreement over the war in Gaza that could help calm soaring tensions in the region.
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Important Takeaways:
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Iranian counterpart Ali Bagheri Kani on Sunday that the Chinese Communist Party supports Iran “defending its sovereignty, security and national dignity” prior to an expected Iranian attack on Israel.
- In the context of highly elevated tensions between Israel and Iran, exacerbated by Iran’s belligerent remarks, the Chinese government moved to lend its support to the world’s premier sponsor of terrorism, which is believed to spend $100 million a year on Palestinian terrorists such as Hamas.
- “China supports Iran in defending its sovereignty, security and national dignity in accordance with the law, and supports the Iranian side in its efforts to maintain regional peace and stability,” Wang reportedly told Bagheri, according to the Chinese government newspaper Global Times.
- “Wang said that China has always upheld justice in Middle East affairs and supported all parties in safeguarding their legitimate rights and interests,” the newspaper continued, “especially in supporting the restoration of the legitimate national rights of the Palestinians.”
- On Haniyeh’s killing, Wang reportedly said that China “firmly opposes and strongly condemns the act of assassination and considers it a serious violation of the basic norms of international relations.”
- Wang further described the incident with Haniyeh as “a grave infringement on Iran’s sovereignty, security and dignity, and a direct undermining of the cease-fire negotiation process in Gaza, as well as an impact on regional peace and stability.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Iran is accelerating online activity that appears intended to influence the U.S. election, in one case targeting a presidential campaign with an email phishing attack, Microsoft said Friday.
- Iranian actors also have spent recent months creating fake news sites and impersonating activists, laying the groundwork to stoke division and potentially sway American voters this fall, especially in swing states, the technology giant found.
- The findings in Microsoft’s newest threat intelligence report show how Iran, which has been active in recent U.S. elections, is evolving its tactics for another election that’s likely to have global implications. The report goes a step beyond anything U.S. intelligence officials have disclosed, giving specific examples of Iranian groups and the actions they have taken so far.
- The report also reveals how Russia and China are exploiting U.S. political polarization to advance their own divisive messaging in a consequential election year.
- Iran’s U.N. mission sent The Associated Press an emailed statement: “Iran has been the victim of numerous offensive cyber operations targeting its infrastructure, public service centers, and industries. Iran’s cyber capabilities are defensive and proportionate to the threats it faces. Iran has neither the intention nor plans to launch cyber attacks. The U.S. presidential election is an internal matter in which Iran does not interfere.”
- Microsoft’s report aligns with recent warnings from U.S. intelligence officials, who say America’s adversaries appear determined to seed the internet with false and incendiary claims ahead of November’s vote.
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Important Takeaways:
- Netanyahu warns of preemptive attack as Tehran speaks of Israel’s annihilation
- “We are prepared both defensively and offensively,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated during a visit Wednesday to the IDF induction base at Tel Hashomer.
- “I know that the citizens of Israel are concerned, and I ask one thing of you: Be patient and level-headed,” he said. “We are striking our enemies and are determined to defend ourselves.”
- Egypt instructed all of its airlines to avoid Iranian airspace for a three-hour period in the early morning on Thursday.
- An Egyptian official was quoted by the state-affiliated Al Qahera News TV as saying that the Iranian authorities said to avoid flying in Iranian airspace because of “military exercises.”
- Many airlines are revising their schedules to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace while also calling off flights to Israel and Lebanon
- On Sunday, Jordanian authorities asked all airlines landing at its airports to carry 45 minutes’ worth of extra fuel.
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Important Takeaways:
- As Iran threatens to respond to the suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the regional militias that the Islamic Republic has armed for decades could play a role in any attack.
- Iran relies on militias as an asymmetric threat to squeeze both Israel and the United States.
- Iran’s arming began in earnest in the 1980s with Shiite forces in Lebanon fighting against Israel. They became the Hezbollah militia.
- The arming expanded with the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, a longtime foe of Tehran.
- Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard is one of the most powerful armed groups in the Middle East.
- The militias in Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” include: Iraqi militias, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Palestinian militant forces, Yemen’s Houthi rebels
- The Houthis follow the Shiite Zaydi faith, a branch of Shiite Islam that is almost exclusively found in Yemen. The rebels claim they’ve recruited 200,000 additional fighters since launching their attacks.
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Important Takeaways:
- President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet with his national security team in the Situation Room later on Monday amid heightened tensions between Iran and Israel.
- The Islamic Republic could attack Israel in the next 24 to 48 hours following a major attack by Hezbollah that left two IDF soldiers injured, top western diplomats have warned.
- Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told the G7 yesterday that an attack in response to Israel killing Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Fuad Shukr in Beirut, was imminent, as reported by Axios.
- It would be the second time during the growing crisis in the Middle East that Iran has directly attacked Israel, the first being in April when it sent a salvo of missiles and drones overnight.
- But unlike the April attack, the US admitted in a private call with G7 members that it doesn’t know what the expected retaliatory strike will look like.
- Nevertheless, Iran has clearly signaled that it intends to attack its foe, claiming it has the ‘legal right’ to respond to Haniyeh’s assassination, with foreign ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani telling a news conference: ‘No one has the right to doubt Iran’s legal right to punish the Zionist regime.’
- The threats from Iran comes just hours after Hezbollah, backed by the Iranian regime, launched a silo of 30 missiles from Lebanon towards upper Galilee.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel is already in a “multifront war” with Iran and its proxies, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a Cabinet meeting Sunday, as the United States and allies prepared to defend Israel from an expected counterstrike and prevent an even more destructive regional conflict.
- Tensions have soared following nearly 10 months of war in Gaza and the killing last week of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and Hamas’ top political leader in Iran. Iran and its allies have blamed Israel and threatened retaliation. Hamas says it has begun discussions on choosing a new leader.
- Netanyahu said Israel was ready for any scenario. Jordan’s foreign minister was making a rare trip to Iran as part of diplomatic efforts — “We want the escalation to end,” Ayman Safadi said — while the Pentagon has moved significant assets to the region.
- In Israel, some prepared bomb shelters and recalled Iran’s unprecedented direct military assault in April following a suspected Israeli strike that killed two Iranian generals.
- Hezbollah says it’s aimed at relieving pressure on fellow Iran-backed ally Hamas. A growing number of countries, including the U.S., are encouraging citizens to leave Lebanon after last week’s killing of a senior commander.
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Important Takeaways:
- President Joe Biden is weighing more US defenses in the Middle East as the US prepares for an Iranian retaliation against Israel that officials say could include an attack on American forces.
- In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Thursday, Biden said the US would “support Israel’s defense against threats,” which would include “new defensive US military deployments,” according to a readout of the call.
- The statement did not detail what new deployments would occur ahead of an anticipated Iranian attack in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
- The USS Wasp amphibious assault ship and several other Navy vessels are currently operating in the Mediterranean Sea. The group includes a Marine expeditionary unit capable of carrying out an evacuation of American citizens from Lebanon if the US ordered such an evacuation.
- The US is expecting the anticipated Iranian attack may be similar to the barrage of ballistic missiles and drones launched against Israel on April 13, officials said. But this attack could be larger and more complicated than before, including the possibility of a coordinated attack with Iranian proxies from multiple directions.
- “Because they have picked a fight with everyone, they don’t know where the response will come from … the response will come separately or coordinated,” Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech Thursday.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel’s military on Thursday confirmed the death of Mohammed Deif, the leader of Hamas’ military wing — the third high-profile Hamas or Iran-linked figure it says it has killed in recent weeks.
- As head of the Qassam Brigades, Deif was believed to have been one of the masterminds of Hamas’ Oct. 7 terror attack on southern Israel
- The announcement came as the funeral was held for Hamas’ political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, a day after he was killed in Iran.
- As fears of an all-out war in the Middle East deepen, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces said what it called an “intelligence assessment” had confirmed that Deif had been killed when fighter jets struck an area in the city of Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip on July 13.
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