Important Takeaways:
- Israel is already in a “multifront war” with Iran and its proxies, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a Cabinet meeting Sunday, as the United States and allies prepared to defend Israel from an expected counterstrike and prevent an even more destructive regional conflict.
- Tensions have soared following nearly 10 months of war in Gaza and the killing last week of a senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon and Hamas’ top political leader in Iran. Iran and its allies have blamed Israel and threatened retaliation. Hamas says it has begun discussions on choosing a new leader.
- Netanyahu said Israel was ready for any scenario. Jordan’s foreign minister was making a rare trip to Iran as part of diplomatic efforts — “We want the escalation to end,” Ayman Safadi said — while the Pentagon has moved significant assets to the region.
- In Israel, some prepared bomb shelters and recalled Iran’s unprecedented direct military assault in April following a suspected Israeli strike that killed two Iranian generals.
- Hezbollah says it’s aimed at relieving pressure on fellow Iran-backed ally Hamas. A growing number of countries, including the U.S., are encouraging citizens to leave Lebanon after last week’s killing of a senior commander.
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Important Takeaways:
- Hezbollah’s leader warned Thursday that the conflict with Israel has entered a “new phase,” as he addressed mourners at the funeral of a commander from the group who was killed by an Israeli airstrike this week in Beirut.
- Iran has vowed retaliation against Israel for the strike that killed Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday in the Iranian capital of Tehran.
- Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said, “We … have entered a new phase that is different from the previous period.”
- “Do they expect that Hajj Ismail Haniyeh will be killed in Iran and Iran will remain silent?” he said of the Israelis.
- “The enemy and the one who is behind the enemy” — an apparent reference to Israel’s chief ally, the United States — “will have to wait for our coming response,” he said.
- In his speech, Nasrallah praised Shukur as a veteran commander and denied that Hezbollah carried out the deadly strike on the soccer field in the mainly Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan.
- “We have the courage to take responsibility for where we strike, even if it’s a mistake. If we made a mistake, we would admit and apologize,” he said, adding, “The enemy made itself the judge, jury, and executioner without any evidence.”
- Speaking Thursday in the Mongolian capital of Ulaaanbataar, Blinken appealed for countries to “make the right choices in the days ahead” and said a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza was the only way to begin to break the current cycle of violence and suffering. Blinken did not mention Israel, Iran or Hamas by name in his comments.
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Important Takeaways:
- Analysts agree that both strikes hit too close to home to pass without a response, and were serious security breaches for both Iran and its proxy terror group.
- Calibrating that response to restore deterrence without sparking an even more damaging escalation may be the most delicate balancing act in nearly a year of teetering on the brink of a regional war.
- Tuesday’s rare strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs killed a top Hezbollah commander who Israel says was responsible for a missile strike on a soccer field in the town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, killing 12 children.
- Less than 12 hours later, the Palestinian terror group Hamas — a Hezbollah ally also backed by Iran — announced that the chief of its political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, had been killed in an Israeli airstrike in Tehran
- “In the Israeli-Hezbollah confrontation, this is a major escalation whereby Hezbollah has to respond adequately in a more or less timely fashion” to restore deterrence.
- “We are in the territory of too many ‘ifs’ to avoid a war, and this doesn’t bode well.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Hamas called the IDF retaliatory strike on Beirut, targeting Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr a dangerous escalation, as the White House said Israel has a right to defend itself against Iranian back threats.
- “Our commitment to Israel’s security is ironclad and unwavering against all Iran-backed threats, including Lebanese Hezbollah,” US National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said.
- “Israel has a right to defend itself against the severe threats it faces. “At the same time, the United States is continuing to work on a diplomatic solution to end these terrible attacks and allow citizens on both sides to safely return to their homes,” she stated.
- The Iranian proxy group Hamas, which operates in both Lebanon and Gaza said, “We strongly condemn the brutal Zionist aggression against Lebanon and the brotherly Lebanese people.”
- “We consider it a dangerous escalation for which the Nazi-Zionist occupation bears full responsibility,” it stated.
- The attack comes as Hamas and Israel are negotiating a hostage and ceasefire deal.
- US officials had urged Israel not to strike at Beirut in retaliation for the children’s death, even though the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah is located there.
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Important Takeaways:
- As tensions escalate between Israel and Hezbollah, based in Lebanon, the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon issued a video Monday urging Americans to leave the country before a crisis begins.
- “We recommend U.S. citizens develop a crisis plan of action and leave before a crisis begins,” Rena Bitter, U.S. assistant secretary of state for the bureau of consular affairs, said in a video posted on social media. “Should commercial air not be available, individuals already in Lebanon should be prepared to shelter in place for long periods of time.”
- Bitter said anyone planning to visit Lebanon should reconsider given the “difficulties that would hinder departure should conflict increase in the region.”
- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Monday, emphasizing the “importance of preventing escalation” and discussing efforts to reach a diplomatic solution to months of conflict.
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Important Takeaways:
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned of a harsh response to the Hezbollah strike that killed 12 children amid calls by the international community for Israeli restrain.
- “Our response will come, and it will be hard,” Netanyahu said during a visit Monday to the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights that came under attack on Saturday.
- The state of Israel, he said, cannot and will not normalize this,” he stated.
- Late Sunday the security cabinet spent over three hours debating a response to the Hezbollah attack, authorizing Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to take action.
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Important Takeaways:
- Senior Hezbollah Radwan force commander Ali Jaafar Maatuk was killed in a strike in southern Lebanon on Thursday, the military said.
- During the attack, other Radwan forces commanders were also killed who were responsible for launching attacks into Israel.
- The Radwan forces have been active during the exchanges of fire in the north between Israel and Hezbollah.
- Several high-ranking Radwan commanders have been targeted during the war, with the mastermind of the March 2023 Megiddo bombing being killed in February, he was also responsible for coordinating Hezbollah’s attacks in the immediate aftermath of October 7.
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Important Takeaways:
- Hezbollah has warned it will find new targets for its rocket attacks should Israeli attacks continue to “target” civilians in Lebanon.
- Noting that eight non-combatants were killed in Israeli attacks on Lebanon in recent days, Nasrallah said that more civilian bloodshed would see Hezbollah fire at new Israeli towns.
- “Continuing to target civilians will push the Resistance to launch missiles at settlements that were not previously targeted,” he said in an address to mark the largely Shia holy day Ashura.
- Israel has said it is striking Hezbollah fighters and infrastructure in Lebanon and does not target civilians.
- As the temperature rises between Israel and Hezbollah, fears are growing of an all-out war that could spark regional turmoil.
- Nasrallah on Wednesday reiterated a vow that Hezbollah would keep up the fight, insisting that Israel is on its heels after 10 months of grinding war in Gaza.
- “If your tanks come to Lebanon … you will have no tanks left,” Nasrallah said.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel is “prepared for a very intense operation,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on a visit to the Lebanese border last month
- In Lebanon, Israel would face a larger, better-armed and more-professional foe, experts warn, and the threat of an even deeper military quagmire.
- Hezbollah insists it will not lay down its arms, or consider retreating from the Israeli border, until a cease-fire is in place in the Strip.
- Israeli military leaders have been drawing up plans for a Lebanon offensive for months
- Since the start of the operation in Gaza, 326 Israeli soldiers have been killed, more than four times the toll from the 2014 war against Hamas.
- To avert a Lebanon war, Israeli officials are demanding — through U.S. and European diplomats — that Hezbollah retreat about 10 miles north of the border, past the Litani River, a military demarcation agreed upon at the end of the 2006 war.
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Important Takeaways:
- The Lebanese Hezbollah group said it launched over 200 rockets on Thursday at several military bases in Israel in retaliation for a strike that killed one of its senior commanders.
- The attack by the Iran-backed militant group was one of the largest in the months long conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with tensions escalating in recent weeks.
- Israel on Wednesday acknowledged that it had killed Mohammad Naameh Nasser, who headed one of Hezbollah’s three regional divisions in southern Lebanon, a day earlier.
- The Israeli military said “numerous projectiles and suspicious aerial targets” had entered its territory from Lebanon, many of which it said were intercepted. It confirmed the death of one soldier in the barrage.
- After Hezbollah’s attack, Israel struck various towns in southern Lebanon. The Israeli military said it hit Hezbollah’s “military structures” in the southern border towns of Ramyeh and Houla.
- Israeli jets also broke the sound barrier over the Lebanese capital, Beirut, and other areas in the country.
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