Important Takeaways:
- Why it matters: The guidance comes as some Democratic lawmakers are fearful about their safety after being rattled by a series of disruptive pro-Palestinian protests since the Israel-Hamas war started last year.
- One House Democrat told Axios they are “very concerned” about their personal security and that “of course” other lawmakers are as well.
- A senior House Democrat said law enforcement is telling members “not to go to a certain area, because they expect violence.”
- “The protesters aren’t staying in a designated protest site … and there are people who are going to go and really try to cause trouble,” the lawmaker predicted.
- The bottom line: Several lawmakers expressed that there is little they can do beyond take reasonable hope that the security measures in place are enough.
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Important Takeaways:
- Along with a surge of combat aircraft and warships, President Biden dispatched three of his top Mideast advisers, including CIA Director Bill Burns, to the region this week to try to delay Iranian and Hezbollah military retaliation against Israel, and to use that borrowed time to craft an offramp from the collision course that ultimately risks a regional war that could draw in U.S. forces.
- But it is unclear how long Iran and its proxies may hold off. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Thursday that an Iranian attack could come with “little or no warning, and certainly could come in the coming days.”
- But multiple sources in the region told CBS News that Iran’s government continues to internally debate whether to use military force as it did on April 13, when it launched hundreds of drones and missiles towards Israel, or whether to conduct a covert intelligence operation.
- The U.S. assesses that Hezbollah could launch an attack with little to no warning.
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Important Takeaways:
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Iranian counterpart Ali Bagheri Kani on Sunday that the Chinese Communist Party supports Iran “defending its sovereignty, security and national dignity” prior to an expected Iranian attack on Israel.
- In the context of highly elevated tensions between Israel and Iran, exacerbated by Iran’s belligerent remarks, the Chinese government moved to lend its support to the world’s premier sponsor of terrorism, which is believed to spend $100 million a year on Palestinian terrorists such as Hamas.
- “China supports Iran in defending its sovereignty, security and national dignity in accordance with the law, and supports the Iranian side in its efforts to maintain regional peace and stability,” Wang reportedly told Bagheri, according to the Chinese government newspaper Global Times.
- “Wang said that China has always upheld justice in Middle East affairs and supported all parties in safeguarding their legitimate rights and interests,” the newspaper continued, “especially in supporting the restoration of the legitimate national rights of the Palestinians.”
- On Haniyeh’s killing, Wang reportedly said that China “firmly opposes and strongly condemns the act of assassination and considers it a serious violation of the basic norms of international relations.”
- Wang further described the incident with Haniyeh as “a grave infringement on Iran’s sovereignty, security and dignity, and a direct undermining of the cease-fire negotiation process in Gaza, as well as an impact on regional peace and stability.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Twenty miles north of Jerusalem, five Texas Red Angus cows chew on grass, oblivious to the fact that their mere presence in Israel was cited by Hamas as a reason for its massacre of Israeli civilians on October 7. The terror organization’s spokesperson says the cows were a justification for the attack, stating that bringing them to Israel was “an aggression” based on a “detestable religious myth.”
- In Ancient Shiloh, located in Samaria, also referred to as the West Bank, Moriyah Shapira proudly showcases the red heifers, which were brought to Israel after a long, tedious search. The animals comply with a very specific set of characteristics outlined in verses in the Book of Numbers in the Old Testament.
- The Hebrew Bible states that red heifers are necessary for a purification ceremony to enter the Temple or its portable predecessor, the Tabernacle. Moses performed a ceremony with red heifer ashes that were used for the Tabernacle in the Sinai before the Jews entered Israel after his death.
- Hamas has called the importation of the red cows an act of “aggression” because it falsely believes that the presence of the cows may ignite the rebuilding of the Temple, which the group thinks would end Arab control of the Temple Mount, where the Al-Aqsa Mosque is located.
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Important Takeaways:
- As Iran threatens to respond to the suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the regional militias that the Islamic Republic has armed for decades could play a role in any attack.
- Iran relies on militias as an asymmetric threat to squeeze both Israel and the United States.
- Iran’s arming began in earnest in the 1980s with Shiite forces in Lebanon fighting against Israel. They became the Hezbollah militia.
- The arming expanded with the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, a longtime foe of Tehran.
- Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard is one of the most powerful armed groups in the Middle East.
- The militias in Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” include: Iraqi militias, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Palestinian militant forces, Yemen’s Houthi rebels
- The Houthis follow the Shiite Zaydi faith, a branch of Shiite Islam that is almost exclusively found in Yemen. The rebels claim they’ve recruited 200,000 additional fighters since launching their attacks.
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Important Takeaways:
- The mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, who is believed to be living in Hamas’ massive tunnel system ever since, was released from Israeli prison in 2011 in a swap for kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit and has been the head of Hamas’s Gaza operations since 2017.
- He is now the head of the entire terrorist organization, directing its war against Israel from Gaza and its international relations – including negotiations for a cease-fire and the release of the 115 hostages Hamas is holding in Gaza.
- “The change in his title won’t stop us from searching for him. He is spurring us to make an effort to find him and attack him, so he’s replaced again,” IDF Chief of the General Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said. “This title, ‘political,’ does not exempt him from the fact that he is a murderer who was part of all the planning and execution of what happened on Oct. 7.”
- IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari told Al Arabiya after Sinwar’s promotion that “there’s only one place we are designating for Yahya Sinwar, and that’s right next to Mohammed Deif” — whom Israel killed — “and all the other terrorists who are responsible for October 7. It’s the only place we are preparing and designating for him.”
- “Hamas is an organization that considers its steps carefully. Something seems strange when they’re taking such an unserious step. They announced the decision was made by consensus, but I’m not sure. Decision-making in Hamas could have been knocked off balance by all the assassinations,” he said.
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Important Takeaways:
- Hezbollah’s leader warned Thursday that the conflict with Israel has entered a “new phase,” as he addressed mourners at the funeral of a commander from the group who was killed by an Israeli airstrike this week in Beirut.
- Iran has vowed retaliation against Israel for the strike that killed Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday in the Iranian capital of Tehran.
- Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said, “We … have entered a new phase that is different from the previous period.”
- “Do they expect that Hajj Ismail Haniyeh will be killed in Iran and Iran will remain silent?” he said of the Israelis.
- “The enemy and the one who is behind the enemy” — an apparent reference to Israel’s chief ally, the United States — “will have to wait for our coming response,” he said.
- In his speech, Nasrallah praised Shukur as a veteran commander and denied that Hezbollah carried out the deadly strike on the soccer field in the mainly Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan.
- “We have the courage to take responsibility for where we strike, even if it’s a mistake. If we made a mistake, we would admit and apologize,” he said, adding, “The enemy made itself the judge, jury, and executioner without any evidence.”
- Speaking Thursday in the Mongolian capital of Ulaaanbataar, Blinken appealed for countries to “make the right choices in the days ahead” and said a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza was the only way to begin to break the current cycle of violence and suffering. Blinken did not mention Israel, Iran or Hamas by name in his comments.
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel’s military on Thursday confirmed the death of Mohammed Deif, the leader of Hamas’ military wing — the third high-profile Hamas or Iran-linked figure it says it has killed in recent weeks.
- As head of the Qassam Brigades, Deif was believed to have been one of the masterminds of Hamas’ Oct. 7 terror attack on southern Israel
- The announcement came as the funeral was held for Hamas’ political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, a day after he was killed in Iran.
- As fears of an all-out war in the Middle East deepen, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces said what it called an “intelligence assessment” had confirmed that Deif had been killed when fighter jets struck an area in the city of Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip on July 13.
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Important Takeaways:
- Since October 7…. the total of US taxpayer funds donated to Gaza as a reward since the massacre on October 7 to $896 million, or close to a billion dollars.
- A lawsuit, brought in December 2022 and updated in March 2024, by Rep. Ronny Jackson and victims of terror attacks in Israel, alleges that President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken “knowingly and unlawfully” provided more than $1.5 billion in aid to Gaza and the West Bank since taking office. Biden and Blinken have “known for years” that the US aid is providing “material support” for Hamas’ “tunnels, rockets, weapon procurement, and command and control infrastructure,” among other terror structures, the lawsuit stated.
- The Biden administration has sought to have the case dismissed twice but failed. On June 28, the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas ruled that the lawsuit can proceed, and that there is evidence the Biden administration continued awarding taxpayer cash to UNRWA even after Congress blocked funding to that group due to its support for Hamas’s military infrastructure.
- In short, the Biden administration has donated less to Sudan and DRC Congo combined, where a total of nearly 50 million people face starvation, than to Gaza, where 2 million people face no such thing. What is going on? And where is Congress?
- According to FBI director Christopher Wray, “the actions of Hamas and its allies will serve as an inspiration the likes of which we haven’t seen since ISIS launched its so-called caliphate years ago.” Iran, officially labeled the world’s leading sponsor of state terrorism by the 2023 US annual Terrorism Report, calls the US “the Great Satan” and continues to vow “Death to America.”
- Blinken casually announced in a July 19 interview that Iran had reduced the time it would need to create sufficient fissile material for a nuclear weapon “to one to two weeks.” He then went on to gaslight the audience by claiming that the Biden administration has been “maximizing pressure on Iran across the board.”
- Why is the Biden administration, under the pretense of “humanitarian aid,” drowning these terrorist enemies of America in US taxpayer money? And what, if anything, is Congress going to do about it?
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Important Takeaways:
- Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated by Israel early Wednesday morning in the heart of the Iranian capital hours after attending President Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration. The details remain unclear, but it’s widely thought that he was killed by a precision drone strike at his residence. The world is watching to see whether Iran and/or its Resistance Axis allies will respond, what form it could take if so, and whether that would escalate tensions to a wider war.
- Here are five takeaways thus far:
- Israel’s Intelligence & Tactics Are Top-Notch
- Israel somehow or another obtained accurate intelligence about Haniyeh’s location despite it being top-secret and was then able to successfully assassinate him. Whatever air defenses (including electronic warfare ones) that Iran had deployed in its capital as part of the security measures to protect its high-profile guests failed to thwart this attack. This is a major embarrassment for the Islamic Republic and prompts speculation about whether it was due to utter incompetence or was partially an inside job.
- Iran Is Caught In A Dilemma Over How To Respond
- It’s unimaginable that Iran won’t respond to its Israeli enemy assassinating a high-profile allied guest in Tehran during the new president’s inauguration, but the dilemma is over the form that this response will take. Launching another drone and missile salvo against Israel like it did in the spring after the bombing of its consulate in Damascus is possible, though Israel could spin that as a failure if many of them are shot down like last time, the on-the-ground damage is minimal, and no high-profile targets are killed.
- Mutually Assured Destruction Hangs Heavy Over Everyone’s Head
- The response that Iran resorts to will be determined by its leadership’s understanding of how far they can go without triggering the “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) scenario, which both Israel and the Resistance Axis fear and is why they’ve thus far restrained themselves from waging all-out war. A repeat of spring’s salvo could remain below that threshold, but Iran might also respond in a different way that’s interpreted by Israel as an escalation, thus prompting its own escalation that could then lead to MAD.
- A Choreographed Response Might Therefore Be The Most “Rational”
- Duma member Dmitry Belik, whose claim to fame was helping Sevastopol reunify with Russia when he briefly served as the region’s acting head in spring 2014, described spring’s salvo as a “beautiful theatrical production”. If there’s any truth to his innuendo that Iran choreographed its response with the US and/or Israel to Israel’s bombing of its consulate in Syria, then it might also do the same after Haniyeh’s assassination, which could help Iran “save face” while averting an escalation towards MAD.
- …But There’s No Guarantee That Iran’s Allies Will “Stand Down”
- Hamas and Hezbollah are Iran’s allies but operate independently of it despite their close ties. There’s accordingly no guarantee that they’ll “stand down” and not respond in their own way if Iran sends another salvo to Israel regardless of whether or not it’s choreographed. After all, Hamas’ political chief was just killed, while one of Hezbollah’s top commanders was assassinated by Israel in Beirut the day prior. This makes the MAD risk even less manageable since those two might not share Iran’s calculations.
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