Tag Archives: Economy

Mexico, Canada seek U.S. soft spots to bolster NAFTA defense

FILE PHOTO: Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (R) and Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto arrive at a news conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada on June 28, 2016. REUTERS/Chris Wattie/File Photo

By Dave Graham and David Ljunggren

MEXICO CITY/OTTAWA (Reuters) – From launching a data-mining drive aiming to find supply-chain pressure points to sending officials to mobilize allies in key U.S. states, Mexico and Canada are bolstering their defenses of a regional trade pact President Donald Trump vows to rewrite.

Trump has blamed the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs and has threatened to tear it up if he fails to get a better deal.

Fearing the massive disruptions a U.S. pullout could cause, the United States’ neighbors and two biggest export markets have focused on sectors most exposed to a breakdown in free trade and with the political clout to influence Washington.

That encompasses many of the states that swept Trump to power in November and senior politicians such as Vice President Mike Pence, a former Indiana governor or Wisconsin representative and House Speaker Paul Ryan.

Prominent CEOs on Trump’s business councils are also key targets, according to people familiar with the lobbying push.

Mexico, for example, has picked out the governors of Texas, Arizona and Indiana as potential allies.

Decision makers in Michigan, North Carolina, Minnesota, Illinois, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nebraska, California and New Mexico are also on Mexico’s priority list, according to people involved in talks.

Mexican and U.S. officials and executives have had “hundreds” of meetings since Trump took office, said Moises Kalach, foreign trade chief of the Mexican private sector team leading the defense of NAFTA. (Graphic:http://tmsnrt.rs/2oYClp2)

Canada has drawn up a list of 11 U.S. states, largely overlapping with Mexico’s targets, that stand to lose the most if the trade pact enacted in 1994 unravels.

To identify potential allies among U.S. companies and industries, Mexican business lobby Consejo Coordinador Empresarial (CCE) recruited IQOM, a consultancy led by former NAFTA negotiators Herminio Blanco and Jaime Zabludovsky.

In one case, the analysis found that in Indiana, one type of engine made up about a fifth of the state’s $5 billion exports to Mexico. Kalach’s team identified one local supplier of the product and put it touch with its main Mexican client.

“We said: talk to the governor, talk to the members of congress, talk to your ex-governor, Vice President Pence, and explain that if this goes wrong, the company is done,” Kalach said. He declined to reveal the name of the company and Reuters could not immediately verify its identity.

Trump rattled the two nations last week when his administration said he was considering an executive order to withdraw from the trade pact, which has been in force since 1994. He later said he would try to renegotiate the deal first and Kalach said the lobbying effort deserved much credit for Trump’s u-turn.

“There was huge mobilization,” he said. “I can tell you the phone did not stop ringing in (Commerce Secretary Wilbur) Ross’s office. It did not stop ringing in (National Economic Council Director) Gary Cohn’s office, in the office of (White House Chief of Staff Reince) Priebus. The visits to the White House from pro-NAFTA allies did not stop all afternoon.”

Among those calling the White House and other senior administration officials were U.S. Chamber of Commerce chief Tom Donohue, officials from the Business Roundtable and CEOs from both lobbies, according to people familiar with the discussions.

PRIME TARGET

Mexico has been the prime target of NAFTA critics, who blame it for lost manufacturing jobs and widening U.S. trade deficits. Canada had managed to keep a lower profile, concentrating on seeking U.S. allies in case of an open conflict.

That changed in late April when the Trump administration attacked Ottawa over support for dairy farmers and slapped preliminary duties on softwood lumber imports.

Despite an apparently weaker position – Canada and Mexico jointly absorb about a third of U.S. exports, but rely on U.S. demand for three quarters of their own – the two have managed to even up the odds in the past by exploiting certain weak spots.

When Washington clashed with Ottawa in 2013 over meat-labeling rules, Canada retaliated by targeting exports from the states of key U.S. legislators. A similar policy is again under consideration.

Mexico is taking a leaf out of a 2011 trucking dispute to identify U.S. interests that are most exposed, such as $2.3 billion of yellow corn exports.

Mexico is also targeting members of Trump advisory bodies, the Strategic and Policy Forum and the Manufacturing Council, led by Blackstone Group LP’s Stephen Schwarzman and Dow Chemical Co boss Andrew Liveris respectively.

Senior Trump administration officials and Republican lawmakers in charge of trade, agriculture and finance committees also feature among top lobbying targets.

Canada has spread the task of lobbying the United States among ministries, official say, and is particularly keen to avoid disruption to the highly-integrated auto industry.

A core component of Mexico’s strategy is to argue the three nations have a common interest in fending off Asian competition and exploring scope to source more content regionally.

The defenders of NAFTA also say that it supports millions of jobs in the United States, and point out that U.S. trade shortfalls with Canada and Mexico have declined over the past decade even as the deficit with China continued to climb.

Part of IQOM’s mission is to identify sectors where NAFTA rules of origin could be modified to increase regional content.

For example, U.S., Canadian and Mexican officials are debating how the NAFTA region can reduce auto parts imports from China, Japan, South Korea or Germany, Mexican officials say.

“The key thing is to see how we can get a win-win on the products most used in our countries, and to develop common manufacturing platforms that allow us just to buy between ourselves the biggest amount of inputs we need,” said Luis Aguirre, vice-president of Mexican industry group Concamin.

Graphic: Trade battles – http://tmsnrt.rs/2pAdPcp

(Additional reporting by Michael O’Boyle Alexandra Alper, Ana Isabel Martinez, Ginger Gibson and Adriana Barrera; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)

U.S. coaxes Mexico into Trump plan to overhaul Central America

A member of the military police keeps watch during a routine foot patrol at El Pedregal neighbourhood Tegucigalpa, Honduras, May 3, 2017. REUTERS/Jorge Cabrera

By Gabriel Stargardter

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – The United States is plotting an ambitious attempt to shore up Central America, with the administration of President Donald Trump pressing Mexico to do more to stem the flow of migrants fleeing violence and poverty in the region, U.S. and Mexican officials say.

The U.S. vision is being shaped by Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary John Kelly, who is due to give a speech about his goals for Central America in Washington on Thursday.

Kelly, who knows Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador well from his time as chief of the U.S. Southern Command, helped the administration of former President Barack Obama design his Alliance for Prosperity. That $750-million initiative sought to curtail Central American migration through development projects as well as law-and-order funding to crack down on the region’s dominant gangs.

Kelly aims to re-tool the Obama-era alliance without a large increase in American funding by pressing Mexico to shoulder more responsibility for governance and security in Central America, and by drumming up fresh private investment for the region, U.S. and Mexican diplomats say.

“What we’re going to see is … greater engagement directly between the Central Americans and Mexican government … (and) a more intense effort to integrate the economic side of this effort with the security side,” William Brownfield, the U.S. assistant secretary for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, told Reuters.

“We’re going to see a strategy that has already been developed, but it is going to be pushed harder and more aggressively in the coming year, and the year after.”

The reshaped alliance stands in contrast to some of the isolationist views jostling for power in the White House. Still it’s consistent with Trump’s foreign policy efforts to pressure China to do more to tackle the North Korea nuclear threat and to get European allies to pick up more of the tab for NATO.

The plan also puts Mexico in a delicate spot. President Enrique Pena Nieto has repeatedly expressed his desire to preserve the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which has become a pillar of Mexico’s economy.

But he must avoid the appearance of capitulating to Trump, who has enraged the Mexican public with his threats to withdraw from NAFTA and force Mexico to pay for his proposed border wall.

“We want to be on good terms with them, because we’re dealing with a much more important issue,” said a senior Mexican diplomat who was not authorized to speak publicly. “In return, we want a beneficial NAFTA renegotiation.”

Neither Kelly nor the DHS responded to requests for comment.

“The prosperity and security of Central America … represent a priority of Mexico’s foreign policy,” the country’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

“The Alliance for Prosperity … is a valuable tool that can be strengthened with the participation of other governments.”

A MAN WITH A PLAN

The new-look Alliance will be firmed up in Miami next month, when U.S., Mexican and Central American officials will meet to negotiate various issues, including Mexico’s role, according to a draft U.S. schedule obtained by Reuters.

Mexico’s Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray has said publicly Mexico is willing to work with the United States in stabilizing Central America, without giving much detail.

In private, though, local officials say cash-strapped Mexico lacks the money to invest significantly in the region – a fact that hasn’t eluded the United States.

“We do not have significant expectations of major … financial contributions by the government of Mexico at this time,” Brownfield said.

However, he said it was reasonable to expect Mexico to help train Central American officials, and deepen coordination along its southern border. Mexican government agencies could also work more closely with their southern counterparts, he added, citing the example of Colombia, which is training Central America’s police forces at the United States’ behest.

Brownfield said the re-designed plan would be executed by the State Department and development agency U.S. AID, working closely with the DHS. The Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) is working with U.S. AID to design mechanisms for luring fresh investment, he added.

IADB President Luis Alberto Moreno told Reuters the Miami meeting, coordinated with DHS officials, aimed to deliver “an investment shock” to create jobs and prevent migration.

However, the Mexican diplomat who requested anonymity expressed concern the new plan could presage a deeper militarization of Central America. The region’s armies have launched violent attacks on the powerful “Mara Salvatrucha” and “Calle 18” gangs, sparking accusations of rights abuses.

Mexico, which is also grappling with widespread violence, is open to training Central American security forces, the diplomat said, but won’t send troops to fight the gangs given its long-standing policy not to intervene in foreign conflicts.

The “Alliance for Prosperity” was cooked up by the Obama administration after a 2014 surge in child migrants from Central America. It aimed to stabilize Central America with funding for security and development. But critics say the focus skewed heavily toward funding for tackling drug smuggling and gangs.

Brownfield pointed to falling homicides in Honduras, where the murder rate has dropped to 59 killings per 100,000 people last year from 90.4 in 2012, as evidence it is starting to yield results. Still, Central America remains one of the most violent regions on earth.

Mexican diplomats say U.S. and Central American officials for years quietly pressed Mexico to join the alliance – pressure they ignored until Trump was elected, threatening to scrap NAFTA.

“Now we’re facing a different scenario because we have an American government pressuring us on lots of issues,” said the Mexican diplomat. “We want to be on good terms with the United States.”

(Additional reporting by Patricia Zengerle in Washington; Editing by Frank Jack Daniel and Marla Dickerson)

Puerto Rico requests bankruptcy protection for public debt

Puerto Rico's Governor Ricardo Rossello addresses the audience during a meeting of the Financial Oversight and Management Board for Puerto Rico at the Convention Center in San Juan, Puerto Rico March 31, 2017. REUTERS/Alvin Baez

By Nick Brown

(Reuters) – Puerto Rico’s financial oversight board on Wednesday filed for a form of bankruptcy protection under last year’s federal rescue law known as PROMESA, touching off the biggest bankruptcy in the history of the U.S. municipal debt market.

The move comes a day after several major creditors sued the U.S. territory and its Governor Ricardo Rossello over defaults on the island’s $70 billion in bonds.

The request came under Title III of the PROMESA law is an in-court debt restructuring process akin to U.S. bankruptcy protection, as Puerto Rico is barred from traditional bankruptcy because it is a U.S. territory. The case was filed in U.S. District Court in Puerto Rico.

The process will give Puerto Rico the legal ability to impose drastic discounts on creditor recoveries, but could also spook investors and prolong the island’s lack of access to debt markets.

“The governor needed to show that his primary allegiance lies with the citizens of Puerto Rico, and that was the justification for the filing,” said David Tawil, whose fund, Maglan Capital, held Puerto Rico GO debt but has since sold it. “I’m not sure whether bondholders are going to get any better treatment or recovery under this course of action.”

The legal proceeding does not mean negotiations toward a consensual restructuring agreement must stop, the governor said in a statement on Wednesday.

“It is my hope that the Government’s Title III proceedings will accelerate the negotiation process,” the governor said in the statement.

Rossello’s fiscal plan for the island, approved by the oversight board in March, forecasts Puerto Rico having only $800 million a year to pay debt, less than a quarter of what it owes. The low figure alienated creditors, and negotiations toward a restructuring deal have foundered.

In addition to its debt, Puerto Rico is facing a 45 percent poverty rate, a shrinking population and unemployment more than twice the U.S. average.

Puerto Rico and its general obligation bondholders, whose $18 billion of debt is backed by the island’s constitution, were negotiating until the last minute.

GO holders offered to accept cuts of 10 cents on the dollar, Elias Sanchez, Rossello’s liaison to the oversight board, told Reuters on Wednesday.

The government responded with an offer to repay 70 percent of claims through new bonds, and another 20 cents through a “growth” bond, payable only if Puerto Rico surpassed fiscal projections.

The sides could not reach a deal, and GO creditors sued the island on Tuesday.

(Writing by Nick Brown; Additional reporting by Jonathan Stempel; editing by Clive McKeef)

Iranians must give Rouhani second term to make good on nuclear deal: Vice President

FILE PHOTO: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani inspects the honour guard during a welcoming ceremony upon his arrival at Vnukovo International Airport in Moscow, Russia March 27, 2017. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo

By Alissa de Carbonnel

TEHRAN (Reuters) – Iran’s president must get a second term to secure the economic benefits that he promised would result from a diplomatic thaw with the West, Vice President Masoumeh Ebtekar said ahead of a May 19 election.

Hassan Rouhani’s hardline challengers for the presidency, some of whom are close to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, say he traded away too much in a 2015 deal with world powers that limited Iran’s nuclear work but failed to deliver sufficient rewards.

In a rare interview with a trio of foreign reporters at an EU-Iran business forum on Sunday, Ebtekar, one of Iran’s 12 vice presidents, said voters should not give up on Rouhani.

“He needs more time … He has to be given a chance to be able to continue his program,” said Ebtekar, one of Iran’s most prominent women politicians.

“Rouhani has done a lot to overcome some of the hurdles that the investors find when they are coming,” she said in a nod to concerns over red tape and opaque rules voiced by foreign companies that Iran hopes to attract.

As a young woman, Ebtekar was the face of the radical students who occupied the U.S. Embassy and held its staff hostage for 444 days at the time of the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Known as “Mary”, she spoke in calm, fluent English to the world’s media, putting the hostage-takers’ side of the incident that remains a painful memory for the United States and is one of the reasons Washington considers the Islamic Republic a pariah state.

At 56, she is now firmly in the reformist camp, endorsing Rouhani’s vision of a freer society and diplomatic detente after the lifting of sanctions under the deal he engineered.

If hardliners describe the nuclear deal as a limited engagement with the West on a single issue, Ebtekar sees it as the beginning of a new era of international engagement to realize what she says are the hopes of Iran’s younger generation to end its long isolation.

HIGH EXPECTATIONS

“There is a lot being done which is creating a lot of hope and optimism but at the same time the expectations for the nuclear deal are still very high,” said Ebtekar, her smiling face framed by a traditional black chador over a turquoise scarf.

With unilateral U.S. sanctions still in place, Ebtekar said voters understood that it was not Rouhani’s fault that the nuclear deal had yet to improve their daily lives.

“They understand that mostly the problem is coming from outside. Our government has done its share … now it is up to our partners in the deal to do their share as well.

“This opening up will create a better atmosphere, and I hope that they will – particularly countries like the United States – will stand up to their commitments,” Ebtekar said.

Ayatollah Khamenei’s scepticism over Rouhani’s detente policy is echoed by his strongest challenger, Ebrahim Raisi, a hardline cleric seen as a possible future supreme leader, who says Iran has no need of foreign help.

Ebtekar, however, said the election is Rouhani’s to lose, pointing to parliamentary polls in which the conservatives lost ground. The alliance of moderates and reformists that helped carry him to power in 2013, she said, “gives him a very strong position.”

Ebtekar rejected the view of Western and Gulf Arab states that Iran is an aggressor in the Middle East, saying it has peaceful intentions but also had the right to defend itself from foreign threats.

Iran’s backing of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the militant Lebanese group Hezbollah and alleged support for Yemen’s Houthi fighters has put it at odds with the United States and regional rival Saudi Arabia.

“We are looking forward to play our role to promote peace and also security in the region,” Ebtekar said.

“But it’s natural for the people living in this region to defend themselves, it’s very natural for Lebanon to defend itself, Syria, the Palestinians. So defense is another issue.”

(Additional reporting Bozorgmehr Sharafedin; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

U.S. private sector adds 177,000 jobs in April: ADP

A job seeker holds a "We're Hiring" card while talking to a representative from Target at a City of Boston Neighborhood Career Fair on May Day in Boston, Massachusetts, U.S., May 1, 2017. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

(Reuters) – U.S. private employers added 177,000 jobs in April, slightly above economists’ expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 175,000 jobs, with estimates ranging from 140,000 to 236,000.

Private payroll gains in the month earlier were revised down to 255,000 from an originally reported 263,000 increase.

The report is jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics.

The ADP figures come ahead of the U.S. Labor Department’s more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which includes both public and private-sector employment.

Economists polled by Reuters are looking for U.S. private payroll employment to have grown by 185,000 jobs in April, up from 89,000 the month before. Total non-farm employment is expected to have risen by 185,000.

The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up to 4.6 percent from the 4.5 percent recorded a month earlier.

(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Wall St. flat as Fed meet kicks off; Nasdaq hits record

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., May 1, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Tanya Agrawal

(Reuters) – Wall Street was little changed on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite edging lower after eking out another record high, as the Federal Reserve’s meeting kicks off.

While the Fed is widely expected to stand pat on interest rates, investors are awaiting the central bank’s statement, due on Wednesday, for clues regarding the future path of rate hikes.

“While no one expects any changes to policy, the 500-word statement will probably provide some direction to the dollar,” said Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM.

“‘Will the Fed acknowledge a slowdown in growth and thus send rate hike expectations lower for 2017?’ The Fed’s statement should be answering these questions, and based on that, traders will act.”

Strong corporate earnings for the first quarter have largely outweighed concerns about patches of weak economic data, including a report last week that showed the U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in three years in the first quarter.

At 9:50 a.m. ET (1350 GMT) the Dow Jones Industrial Average <.DJI> was up 5.59 points, or 0.03 percent, at 20,919.05. The S&P 500 <.SPX> was down 1.45 points, or 0.06 percent, at 2,386.88 and the Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> was down 6.52 points, or 0.11 percent, at 6,085.09.

Ten of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were higher, with the industrials index’s <.SPLRCI> 0.34 percent rise leading the advancers.

Investors are bracing for another heavy week of corporate reports to see if quarterly earnings will keep on exceeding expectations.

Overall, profits at S&P 500 companies are estimated to have risen 13.6 percent in the first quarter, the most since 2011, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Shares of Apple <AAPL.O> rose as much as 0.8 percent to $147.69, hitting a record high for the second straight day. The stock was the biggest boost on the S&P and Nasdaq. The iPhone maker is due to report results after the close of market.

Dow component Pfizer <PFE.N> was down 1.2 percent at $33.36 after the drugmaker’s quarterly revenue missed estimates.

MasterCard <MA.N> rose 2.1 percent to $118.73 as the world’s second-largest payments network’s quarterly profit rose.

Advanced Micro Devices <AMD.O> tumbled 16.2 percent to $11.45 after the chipmaker’s second-quarter gross margins forecast raised some concerns.

Coach <COH.N> rose 6.2 percent to $41.12 after the handbag maker reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by 1,321 to 1,263. On the Nasdaq, 1,300 issues fell and 1,052 advanced.

The S&P 500 index showed 30 new 52-week highs and four new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 91 new highs and 19 new lows.

(Reporting by Tanya Agrawal in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D’Souza)

Trump to order a study on abuses of U.S. trade agreements

FILE PHOTO: The headquarters of the World Trade Organization (WTO) are pictured in Geneva, Switzerland, April 12, 2017. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo

By Ayesha Rascoe

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump will sign an executive order on Saturday seeking to identify any problems caused by the nation’s existing trade agreements, including an examination of U.S. involvement in the World Trade Organization, a top trade official said.

Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said his department would work to issue a report in 180 days outlining challenges with these trade deals and possible solutions.

Ross singled out the World Trade Organization as an entity that may need to make some changes, although he cautioned that the administration had not made any decisions yet.

“There’s always the potential for amending organization’s charters like the WTO, particularly when you’re in the position we are,” he said. “We’re the number one importer in the whole world.”

Ross raised concerns that the WTO is too bureaucratic and does not hold meetings often enough. He also argued that the WTO has an “institutional bias” in favor of exporters and against countries that are being “beleaguered by inappropriate imports.”

Remaking U.S. trade relations has been a top priority for Trump, who has argued that the United States has been treated unfairly in international trade.

Trump said on Thursday that he had been prepared to terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico, but backed off after calls from the leaders of those two countries.

The effects of NAFTA on the U.S. economy will also be examined in the new study.

Last month, Trump also issued an order calling for a major review of the causes of all U.S. trade deficits.

(Reporting by Ayesha Rascoe; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)

World stocks pause near record highs ahead of Trump landmark

People walk through the lobby of the London Stock Exchange in London, Britain August 25, 2015. REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett/File photo

By Vikram Subhedar

LONDON (Reuters) – Concern about global trade and U.S. President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies kept appetite for risky assets in check on Friday, setting world stocks on the path to a sluggish end to what will be their sixth straight month of gains.

In an interview with Reuters, Trump called the U.S. trade pact with South Korea “unacceptable” and said it would be targeted for renegotiation after his administration completed a revamp of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico.

Trump’s comments sent Seoul stocks <.KS11> and the won <KRW=> into reverse.

Global stocks <.MIWO00000PUS> were steady, however, little changed on the day and holding near all-time highs and on track for a sixth straight month of gains.

Stock futures on Wall Street <ESc1> were up 0.1 percent, also near their highest ever levels.

Saturday marks Trump’s 100th day in office and his attacks on free trade and scepticism about his administration’s ability to see through a tax and spending campaign promises has dented some of the enthusiasm in markets that followed his election win.

“Trump is reaching the 100-day mark with nothing to show for it and these recent comments just coincide with that. They (the U.S. administration) are finding it hard to push through fiscal plans and all this rhetoric is probably related,” Kiran Kowshik, strategist at Unicredit.

EUROPE POWERING AHEAD

The mood on Europe, however, remains upbeat.

Euro zone bond yields rose across the board on Friday and the euro strengthened, rising 0.6 percent against the dollar <EUR=> to $1.0944, as output data from several countries reaffirmed a picture of economic strength in the bloc.

At the same, inflation blew past expectations to hit a three-year high, keeping pressure on the European Central Bank to start dialing back its stimulus measures.

Regional banking shares <.SX7P> added to recent gains.

Barclays <BARC.L> shares were an outlier, however, sliding 5 percent after disappointing investment banking results and weighing on the broader STOXX 600 <.STOXX> index which fell 0.2 percent.

European stocks are still up more than 2 percent on the week. Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) noted that the $2.4 billion of inflows into European equity funds over the past week were the highest since December 2015.

“The hard data for equities is earnings — and they are powering ahead. Q1 earnings season is very strong and revisions trends are positive and broad-based,” said analysts at BAML, who forecast 15 percent earnings growth for European companies and a further 8 percent rally for the STOXX 600.

Healthy earnings, particularly from companies closely geared to economic growth, have underpinned the rally in global stocks, which have added nearly $5 trillion to their market value so far this year, according to Thomson Reuters data.

In commodities, oil prices rose but were still on track for a second straight weekly loss on concerns that an OPEC-led production cut had failed to significantly tighten an oversupplied market.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude <CLc1> was at $49.43 per barrel at 0649 GMT, up 46 cents, or 0.94 percent, from its last close. WTI is still set for a small weekly loss and is around 8 percent below its April peak.

Brent crude <LCOc1> was at $51.91 per barrel, up 47 cents, or 0.91 percent. Brent is around 8.5 percent down from its April peak and is also on track for a second, albeit small, weekly decline.

(Additional reporting by Sujata Rao, Editing by Jeremy Gaunt and John Stonestreet)

Frugal U.S. consumers seen holding back first-quarter GDP

People shop at The Grove mall in Los Angeles November 26, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy likely hit a soft patch in the first quarter as an unseasonably warm winter and rising inflation weighed on consumer spending, in a potential setback to President Donald Trump’s promise to boost growth.

Reduced business investment in inventories and government spending cuts also crimped gross domestic product growth. A Reuters survey of economists conducted last week forecast GDP rising at a 1.2 percent annual rate, but many economists lowered their estimates after the government on Thursday released advance reports on the goods trade deficit and inventories in March.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting the economy growing at only a 0.2 percent rate in the first quarter, which would be the weakest performance in three years.

The economy grew at a 2.1 percent pace in the fourth quarter. The government will publish its advance first-quarter GDP estimate on Friday at 8:30 a.m. The expected sluggish first-quarter growth pace, however, is not a true picture of the economy’s health.

The labor market is near full employment and consumer confidence is near multi-year highs, suggesting that the mostly weather-induced slowdown in consumer spending is probably temporary. First-quarter GDP tends to underperform because of difficulties with the calculation of data that the government has acknowledged and is working to rectify.

“The weakness is not a reflection of the underlying health of the economy, part of it is residual seasonality,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “It has become more understood over the past few years, that’s why people often discount first-quarter GDP.”

Even without the seasonal quirk and temporary restraints, economists say it would be difficult for Trump to fulfill his pledge to raise annual GDP growth to 4 percent, without increases in productivity.

Trump is targeting infrastructure spending, tax cuts and deregulation to achieve his goal of faster economic growth.

On Wednesday, the Trump administration proposed a tax plan that includes cutting the corporate income tax rate to 15 percent from 35 percent, but offered no details.

ANEMIC CONSUMER SPENDING

Economists estimate that growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, braked to below a 1.0 percent rate in the first quarter. That would be the slowest pace in nearly four years and follows the fourth quarter’s robust 3.5 percent growth rate.

The expected weakness in consumer spending is blamed on a mild winter, which undermined demand for heating and utilities production. Higher inflation, which saw the consumer price index averaging 2.5 percent in the first quarter, also hurt spending.

Government delays issuing income tax refunds to combat fraud also weighed on consumer spending. Economists said Federal Reserve officials were likely to view both the anemic consumer spending and GDP growth as temporary when they meet next week. The Fed is not expected to raise interest rates.

“The good news is that the Fed in recent years has distanced itself from the GDP numbers,” said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP in Jersey City, New Jersey. “A weak first-quarter GDP print should not affect the policy debate.”

After contributing to GDP growth for two straight quarters, inventory investment was likely a drag in the first quarter. JPMorgan is forecasting inventories chopping off one percentage point from GDP growth. Trade was likely neutral after being a huge drag in the fourth quarter.

But some good news is expected. Business investment likely rose further, with spending on equipment seen accelerating thanks to rising gas and oil well drilling as oil prices continue their recovery from multi-year lows.

Investment in home building is also expected to have gained momentum in the first quarter.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. core capital goods orders, shipments increase in March

FILE PHOTO - Honda Motor Co's Acura NSX luxury sports car is seen in assemble line at the company's Performance Manufacturing Center in Marysville, Ohio, U.S., November 11, 2016. REUTERS/Maki Shiraki/File Photo

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods rose less than expected in March, but a second straight monthly increase in shipments suggested business investment accelerated in the first quarter amid a recovering energy sector.

The Commerce Department said on Thursday non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, increased 0.2 percent last month after an upwardly revised 0.1 percent gain in February.

Shipments of these so-called core capital goods rose 0.4 percent after jumping 1.1 percent in February. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government’s gross domestic product measurement.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders rising 0.5 percent last month after a previously reported 0.1 percent dip. March’s modest increase suggests some loss of momentum in the manufacturing sector after recent strong growth.

Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the U.S. economy, is being underpinned by the energy sector revival.

Energy services firm Baker Hughes said last Friday that U.S. oil rigs totaled 688 in the week ending April 21, the most in two years. U.S. drillers have added oil rigs for 14 straight weeks and shale production in May was set for its biggest monthly increase in more than two years.

Business spending on equipment is expected to have accelerated from the fourth-quarter’s annualized 1.9 percent growth pace and will likely be one of the few bright spots when the government publishes its advance first-quarter GDP estimate on Friday.

Manufacturing could get a lift from President Donald Trump’s proposed tax plan, announced on Wednesday, that includes cutting the corporate income tax rate to 15 percent from 35 percent.

Last month, orders for machinery slipped 0.2 percent, but shipments increased 0.7 percent. Orders for primary metals rose in March as did shipments of these products. Electrical equipment, appliances and components orders and shipments also increased last month.

There were, however, declines in orders for fabricated metal products and computers and electronic products.

Last month overall orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last three years or more, increased 0.7 percent after surging 2.3 percent in February. Civilian aircraft orders increased 7.0 percent.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)