North Korean soldiers going home in body bags over the weekend as they fought alongside Russians

Important Takeaways:

  • Ukraine targets Russia’s mercenaries saying ‘there is no reason for Koreans to fight and die for Putin’
  • “Today, we already have preliminary data that the Russians have begun to use North Korean soldiers in their assaults. A significant number of them,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday.
  • Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reported the North Koreans were embedded with Russian Marines and Airborne troops – elite units – in the Russian region of Kursk, which Ukraine has counter-invaded.
  • Zelenskyy posted that Russia was adopting gruesome tactics to obscure the loss of North Korean soldiers.
  • “After the battles with our guys, the Russians are also trying to… literally burn the faces of the killed North Korean soldiers,” he wrote on Telegram.
  • He added, “There is no reason for Koreans to fight and die for Putin. And even after their death, all that awaits them from Russia is mockery.”
  • There were no statements from Russia or North Korea on these first casualties of Korean mercenaries.

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Russian Zeppelin-like aircraft appear near NATO border: message is clear ‘We are watching you’

Blimp on Estonia Russia Border

Important Takeaways:

  • The strange, Zeppelin-like aircraft had been spotted on the Russian side of the frontier near Narva, a Russian-speaking Estonian town on the far edges of Nato territory.
  • After some debate, Estonian police chose to ignore the blimp and hoped that would be the end of the matter. But the next day, it came back – this time marked with a “Z”, the symbol of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • “We are seeing things like this nearly every week,” Egert Belitšev, the director-general of the Estonian police, said during a tour of Narva’s border checkpoint, the day before Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, arrived in the country for a security summit with Baltic and Nordic leaders.
  • “It was intentionally made visible to everyone, to say: ‘We are watching you.’”
  • “Two years ago we had 18 border incidents and this year we had 96,”
  • “We have seen constant attempts to destabilize the situation.”
  • In one of the more serious incidents in May, Russian border guards removed 20 buoys from the Narva river in the middle of the night in an apparent attempt to redraw the edges of Russia’s territory.
  • “They did it at 3am – this is not something you do if it is a proper or normal thing,” Mr. Belitšev said.
  • Moscow is also trying to push irregular migrants across the Estonian border, and across the Baltic Sea into Finland.
  • Police say there have even been cases of Russians trying to smuggle drone parts across the Estonia border to support Putin’s war.
  • “Russia will remain a threat for a very significant time, we don’t see any changes in the mindset of the Russian regime,” Mr. Tori said.
  • “Russia’s understanding is that we will become more tired and they can outlast us in this war of aggression. Russia sees itself as being at war with Nato and therefore the ends justify the means.”

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Russian Commander of Chemical and Biological weapons assassinated by Ukrainian Security Services

Russian Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov

Important Takeaways:

  • A Ukrainian official has taken credit for the assassination of Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, the commander of Russia’s chemical, biological and radiation defense forces, and his assistant, who were killed in an explosion in Moscow on Tuesday.
  • Russia’s Investigative Committee said the explosive device was placed in a scooter near a residential apartment block on Ryazansky Avenue and triggered remotely, according to The Associated Press. The bombing came one day after Ukrainian Security Services charged Kirillov with crimes.
  • The bomb had the power of roughly 300 grams of TNT, according to Russian state news agency Tass.
  • Kirillov was charged by the SBU on Monday with using banned chemical weapons on the battlefield. Several countries had also placed him under sanctions for his role in the war against Ukraine, The AP reported.
  • The SBU said it has recorded more than 4,800 uses of chemical weapons during Russia’s attack on Ukraine, which began in Feb. 2022.

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Russia retaliates for Ukraine’s use of ATACMS by attacking power grid and military bases

Important Takeaways:

  • NATO fighter jets have been scrambled in Poland and along the Alliance’s eastern flank
  • Russia staged a brutal attack on Ukraine this morning, targeting energy and military facilities to plunge civilians into darkness and misery ahead of the festive season.
  • A massive Russian onslaught had been expected, but there were no immediate reports of fearsome medium range ballistic missile Oreshnik being deployed, as had been predicted, although it may yet come.
  • Instead, Ukraine was hit with Iskander, Kalibr, Kinzhal [or Dagger] missiles and Iranian-designed Shahed kamikaze drones, launched from Tu-95MS strategic bombers and MiG-31Ks.
  • The capital Kyiv was hit by major power cuts – and underground trains stopped running, while people huddled in metro stations to escape the bombardment.
  • There were reports of an airbase being hit, along with warehouses and a plant producing drones and repairing helicopters.
  • Ukraine’s national power operator Ukrenergo warned that today half the country would be without power – with temperatures of minus 5C – due to the latest Putin onslaught, ahead the Christmas festivities.
  • Explosions ranged across Ukraine from Ivano-Frankivsk in the west to Kharkiv in the east.
  • Among the other regions hit were Kyiv, Odesa, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Khmelnitsk, Lviv, and Ternopil.
  • Russia had warned of a powerful response to a Ukrainian strike this week with US-supplied ATACMS missiles on a military airbase in Taganrog.

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Time to turbocharge defense production; shift to a ‘wartime mindset’

Important Takeaways:

  • Britain and other members of Nato have been urged to shift to a ‘wartime mindset’ amid the ongoing threats from Russia.
  • Head of the military alliance, Mark Rutte, warned that nations are not ready for the coming years – and that much higher defense spending is needed to keep the enemy at bay.
  • He said more than 3% of GDP had been splurged during the Cold War, but that future spending would have to be much higher than the current target of 2%.
  • ‘Russia is preparing for long-term confrontation, with Ukraine and with us,’ Rutte said in a speech in Brussels.
  • ‘We are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years,’ the Nato secretary-general said.
  • He added: ‘It is time to shift to a wartime mindset and turbocharge defense production and defense spending.’

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Russia warns citizens not to visit US and Washington says Americans have been wrongfully imprisoned in Russia as escalating confrontation teeters

Red Square Moscow

Important Takeaways:

  • Russian and US diplomats say the relationship is worse than at any time since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis…
  • “In the context of the increasing confrontation in Russian-American relations, which are teetering on the verge of rupture due to the fault of Washington, trips to the United States of America privately or out of official necessity are fraught with serious risks,” Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, told a news briefing.
  • “We urge you to continue to refrain from trips to the United States of America and its allied satellite states, including, first of all, Canada and, with a few exceptions, European Union countries, during these holidays,” she said.
  • Both Moscow and Washington say their citizens have been wrongfully imprisoned and their diplomats harassed increasingly as relations soured, though they both defend convictions by their own justice systems.

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More money and weapons being rushed to Ukraine before Biden’s administration comes to an end

Important Takeaways:

  • The Biden administration might be in its final days but that doesn’t mean the flow of lethal U.S. weaponry to Ukraine shows any sign of slowing. Far from it.
  • That was confirmed Monday when an additional $725 million in military assistance, including counter-drone systems and munitions for its High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), was announced by the White House.
  • AP reports it is unclear whether the munitions for the HIMARS are the coveted ATACMS — the Army Tactical Missile System — but Ukraine has been pressing for more of the longer-range missiles to strike additional targets inside Russia.
  • The package also includes more of the anti-personnel land mines Ukraine seeks to slow Russian and North Korean ground forces in Russia’s Kursk region and comes on the back of the billions of dollars in U.S. taxpayer funds already used to support Kiev in its fight against Russia.
  • President Joe Biden has pledged to spend all of the military assistance funds Congress approved this year for Ukraine before the end of his administration on Jan. 20, which before Monday’s announcement included about $7.1 billion in weapons that would be drawn from the Pentagon’s stockpiles.

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“Trade wars” sanctions can be disruptive but China has had time to observe Russia react to heavy sanctions by the West

Nvidia's-AI-chips

Important Takeaways:

  • China has been supporting Russia’s economy since the start of the Ukraine war by buying its oil while supplying it with everything from microelectronics to washing machines.
  • Meanwhile, Beijing has been getting its own strategic benefit: a real-world case study in how to circumvent Western sanctions.
  • Russia’s economy has been surprisingly resilient throughout the Ukraine war, but it has shown fresh signs of cracking under Western pressure recently. In the past week, the Russian ruble plunged to its lowest point since the early days of the conflict after the U.S. imposed new banking sanctions.
  • Moscow owes much of its economic durability to its oil exports and its cooperation with Beijing, as the leaders of both countries seek to challenge the U.S.-led world order.
  • “Sanctions can be really disruptive for any production sector that is enmeshed in global supply chains,” Fishman said. “That makes China highly vulnerable.”
  • While the U.S. has already imposed sanctions on China, including export restrictions on advanced semiconductors and measures against telecommunications giant Huawei, a crisis over Taiwan could lead to an economic war of a different magnitude.
  • Full-scale financial sanctions by the West would disrupt the country’s financial system, interrupt trade and put $3.7 trillion in Chinese overseas bank assets and reserves at risk, according to a report last year by the Atlantic Council and Rhodium Group think tanks.
  • One major lesson for China from Russia’s experience has been the importance of preparation, analysts say. Before the war, Russia had sought to diversify its foreign reserves, de-dollarize its economy and build domestic financial plumbing. Even though its success was mixed, those moves helped shield the Russian economy and buy it time to adapt.

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“The relationship between Russia and North Korea is clearly developing into a much closer one with various aspects and shared goals”

Vladimir Putin Kim Jong Un

Important Takeaways:

  • North Korea has sent more than 100 KN-23 and KN-24 short-range nuclear capable ballistic missiles to Russia, according to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence.
  • Pyongyang joined the fray in August and is reinforcing Moscow’s troops in Kursk after Kyiv launched an incursion in the summer. North Korea’s support has become a key, as Pyongyang assists Moscow in replenishing its weapons stockpiles.
  • “The aggressor state of Russia has received more than 100 such missiles from the DPRK. The enemy first used these weapons in the war against Ukraine at the end of 2023,” said the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine.
  • “Along with the missiles, Pyongyang then sent its military specialists to Russia to service the launchers and participate in war crimes against Ukraine.”
  • This shipment is part of a broader effort by North Korea to support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, including other military supplies such as artillery systems and rocket launchers.
  • According to South Korea’s national intelligence service, North Korea has delivered over 13,000 containers of artillery, missiles, and other conventional weapons to Russia since August, 2023.
  • Samuel Cranny-Evans told Newsweek: “The relationship between Russia and North Korea is clearly developing into a much closer one with various aspects and shared goals.”

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Digging into the Archives of NYT several officials discuss the possibility of returning nuclear weapons to Ukraine to deter Russia

Ukrainian troops near the front lines

Important Takeaways:

  • One question is whether the new administration and Europe will provide security guarantees to prevent Russia from taking more territory.
  • The one gold-standard security guarantee that Ukraine wants is an invitation to join NATO. But it could not get that under Mr. Biden, and an invitation is unlikely during Mr. Trump’s presidency.
  • So, U.S. and European officials are discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine, such as stockpiling a conventional arsenal sufficient to strike a punishing blow if Russia violates a cease-fire.
  • Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications.

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