Tag Archives: OPEC

Oil markets roiled as Harvey hits U.S. petroleum industry

An oil tank damaged by Hurricane Harvey is seen near Seadrift, Texas, August 26, 2017

By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil markets were roiled on Monday after Tropical Storm Harvey wreaked havoc along the U.S. Gulf Coast over the weekend, crippling Houston and its port, and knocking out several refineries as well as some crude production.

U.S. gasoline prices hit two-year highs as massive floods caused by the storm forced refineries in the area to close. In turn, U.S. crude futures fell as the refinery shutdowns could reduce demand for American crude.

Brent futures steadied as pipeline blockades in Libya slashed the OPEC state’s output by nearly 400,000 barrels per day .

Harvey is the most powerful hurricane to hit Texas in more than 50 years, killing at least two people, causing large-scale flooding, and forcing the closure of Houston port as well as several refineries.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Harvey was moving away from the coast but was expected to linger close to the shore through Tuesday. It said floods would spread from Texas eastward to Louisiana.

Texas is home to 5.6 million bpd of refining capacity, and Louisiana has 3.3 million bpd. Over 2 million bpd of refining capacity was estimated to be offline as a result of the storm.

Spot prices for U.S. gasoline futures surged 7 percent to a peak of $1.7799 per gallon, the highest level since late July 2015, before easing to $1.7341 by 1341 GMT.

U.S. traders were seeking oil product cargoes from North Asia, several refining and shipping sources told Reuters, with transatlantic exports of motor fuel out of Europe expected to surge.

“Global refining margins are going to stay very strong,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director of Petromatrix.

“If (U.S.) refineries shut down for more than a week, Asia will need to run at a higher level, because there’s no spare capacity in Europe.”

About 22 percent, or 379,000 bpd, of Gulf production was idled due to the storm as of Sunday afternoon, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement said.

There might also be around 300,000 bpd of onshore U.S. production shut in, trading sources said.

Brent crude futures were up 2 cents at $52.43 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate  crude futures  were down 50 cents at $47.37.

The price moves pushed the WTI discount versus Brent to as much as $5.24 per barrel, the widest in two years.

 

 

(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore; Editing by Dale Hudson and Edmund Blair)

 

Helicopter attacks Venezuela court, Maduro denounces coup bid

Demonstrators holding a Venezuelan flag attend a rally against Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro's government in Caracas, Venezuela June 27, 2017. REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado

By Silene Ramírez and Eyanir Chinea

CARACAS (Reuters) – A Venezuelan police helicopter strafed the Supreme Court and a government ministry on Tuesday, escalating the OPEC nation’s political crisis in what President Nicolas Maduro called an attack by “terrorists” seeking a coup.

The aircraft fired 15 shots at the Interior Ministry, where scores of people were at a social event, and dropped four grenades on the court, where judges were meeting, officials said.

However, there were no reports of injuries.

“Sooner rather than later, we are going to capture the helicopter and those behind this armed terrorist attack against the institutions of the country,” Maduro said.

“They could have caused dozens of deaths,” he said.

The 54-year-old socialist leader has faced three months of protests from opposition leaders who decry him as a dictator who has wrecked a once-prosperous economy. There has been growing dissent too from within government and the security forces.

At least 75 people have died, and hundreds more been injured and arrested, in the anti-government unrest since April.

Demonstrators are demanding general elections, measures to alleviate a brutal economic crisis, freedom for hundreds of jailed opposition activists, and independence for the opposition-controlled National Assembly legislature.

Maduro says they are seeking a coup against him with the encouragement of a U.S. government eager to gain control of Venezuela’s oil reserves, the largest in the world.

Venezuela’s government said in a communique the helicopter was stolen by investigative police pilot Oscar Perez, who declared himself in rebellion against Maduro.

Images shared on social and local media appear to show Perez waving a banner from the helicopter reading “Liberty”, and the number “350” in large letters.

The number refers to the constitutional article allowing people the right to oppose an undemocratic government.

A video posted on Perez’ Instagram account around the same time showed him standing in front of several hooded armed men, saying an operation was underway to restore democracy.

Perez said in the video he represented a coalition of military, police and civilian officials opposed to the “criminal” government, urged Maduro’s resignation and called for general elections. “This fight is … against the vile government. Against tyranny,” he said.

Local media also linked Perez to a 2015 action film, Suspended Death, which he co-produced and starred in as an intelligence agent rescuing a kidnapped businessman.

On Tuesday, witnesses reported hearing several detonations in downtown Caracas, where the pro-Maduro Supreme Court, the presidential palace and other key government buildings are located.

Opponents to Maduro view the Interior Ministry as a bastion of repression and also hate the Supreme Court for its string of rulings bolstering the president’s power and undermining the opposition-controlled legislature.

VOTE CONTROVERSY

Opposition leaders have long been calling on Venezuela’s security forces to stop obeying Maduro.

However, there was also some speculation among opposition supporters on social media that the attack could have been staged to justify repression or cover up drama at Venezuela’s National Assembly, where two dozen lawmakers said they were being besieged by pro-government gangs.

Earlier on Tuesday, Maduro warned that he and supporters would take up arms if his socialist government was violently overthrown by opponents.

“If Venezuela was plunged into chaos and violence and the Bolivarian Revolution destroyed, we would go to combat. We would never give up, and what couldn’t be done with votes, we would do with arms, we would liberate the fatherland with arms,” he said.

Maduro, who replaced Hugo Chavez in 2013, is pushing a July 30 vote for a special super-body called a Constituent Assembly, which could rewrite the national charter and supersede other institutions such as the opposition-controlled congress.

He has touted the assembly as the only way to bring peace to Venezuela. But opponents, who want to bring forward the next presidential election scheduled for late 2018, say it is a sham poll designed purely to keep the socialists in power.

They are boycotting the vote, and protesting daily on the streets to try and have it stopped.

Maduro said the “destruction” of Venezuela would lead to a huge refugee wave dwarfing the Mediterranean migrant crisis.

“Listen, President Donald Trump,” he said earlier on Tuesday. “You would have to build 20 walls in the sea, a wall from Mississippi to Florida, from Florida to New York, it would be crazy … You have the responsibility: stop the madness of the violent Venezuelan right wing.”

Opposition to the July 30 vote has come not just from Venezuelan opposition parties but also from the chief state prosecutor Luisa Ortega and one-time government heavyweights such as former intelligence service boss Miguel Rodriguez.

Rodriguez criticized Maduro for not holding a referendum before the Constituent Assembly election, as his predecessor Chavez had done in 1999.

“This is a country without government, this is chaos,” he told a news conference on Tuesday. “The people are left out … They (the government) are seeking solutions outside the constitution.”

The government said pilot Perez was linked to Rodriguez.

Neither men, nor representatives for them, could be reached immediately to comment on the accusations.

(Additional reporting by Deisy Buitrago, Girish Gupta, Eyanir Chinea, Andrew Cawthorne and Andreina Aponte; Writing by Andrew Cawthorne; Editing by Andrew Hay, Paul Tait and Himani Sarkar)

Weaker dollar helps lift oil, supply worries persist

An oil derrick and wind turbines stand above the plains north of Amarillo, Texas, U.S., March 14, 2017. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

By Sabina Zawadzki

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Friday, helped by a weaker dollar, as investors weighed the impact of OPEC production cuts against rising U.S. shale oil output and persistently high inventories.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Thursday oil output cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers could be extended beyond June if oil stocks stayed above a long-term average.

But analysts said the comments gave limited support because Riyadh has said it needs cooperation to rebalance the market and non-OPEC producers, such as Russia, have yet to deliver fully on reduction commitments in the first half of 2017.

Brent crude was up 31 cents at $52.05 a barrel by 1102 GMT. U.S. light crude was up 33 cents at $49.08.

“The market remains relatively calm today with concerns about having to extend the production cut deal being offset by a weaker dollar,” said Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen.

Oil prices, which lost ground earlier on Friday, have found some support from dollar weakness after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated it would not accelerate plans for rate rises. The fall in the greenback boosted dollar-denominated crude.

Investors will also look for more direction from data due later on Friday. The Baker Hughes weekly rig count will indicate activity in the U.S. shale industry and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission releases calculations of net long and short positions in the crude futures market.

Oil prices fell sharply last week on concerns that OPEC-led production cuts were not reducing the global supply overhang as quickly as expected in the face of increased U.S. output.

OPEC and non-OPEC members reached agreement last year to cut output by a combined 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first half of 2017.

But OPEC’s monthly report showed global oil inventories rose in January to 278 million barrels above the five-year average.

Investors took some comfort from a dip in U.S. stockpiles in the week to March 10, after nine weekly rises. However, the fall in U.S. inventories was a modest 237,000 barrels, leaving 528 million barrels in storage, close to record highs. [EIA/S]

In a further sign that OPEC’s efforts have had little impact so far, oil shipments to Asia have increased 3 percent since the OPEC supply cut deal was made.

(Additional reporting by Jane Chung; Editing by Edmund Blair)

Oil Rises but growing U.S. output threatens Rally

A natural gas flare on an oil well pad burns as the sun sets outside Watford City, North Dakota

By Amanda Cooper

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil edged up on Monday, as investor optimism over the effectiveness of producer cuts encouraged record bets on a sustained price rise, although growing U.S. output and stubbornly high stockpiles kept price gains in check.

Brent futures were up 28 cents at $56.09 a barrel at 1448 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 23 cents at $53.63.

Investors have certainly taken OPEC members at their word on their commitment to cut production and now hold more crude futures and options than at any time on record.

But evidence of rising output in the United States has tempered money managers’ appetite to push prices higher. Since the start of the month oil prices have gained around $2.

“There is still a general consensus that the OPEC/non-OPEC agreement helps supply to get in line with demand. This bullish stance is countered by the ever-increasing inventories in the U.S. and rising rig counts,” PVM Oil Associates strategist Tamas Varga said in a note.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, agreed last year to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) during the first half of 2017.

Estimates indicate compliance with the cuts is around 90 percent, while Reuters reported last week that OPEC could extend the pact or apply deeper cuts from July if global crude inventories fail to drop enough.

Top OPEC exporter Saudi Arabia’s crude oil shipments fell in December to 8.014 million bpd from 8.258 million bpd in November, official data showed on Monday.

“Sustained gains above $55 a barrel, and a hoped-for rally to $60 a barrel, (are) both proving incredibly tough nuts to crack,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at futures brokerage OANDA in Singapore.

“At the crux of the matter is that 90 percent OPEC compliance is being balanced by ever increasing U.S. shale production,” he added.

U.S. energy companies added oil rigs for a fifth consecutive week, Baker Hughes said on Friday, extending a nine-month recovery with producers encouraged by higher prices, which have largely traded above $50 a barrel since late November.

“Assuming the U.S. oil rig count stays at the current level, we estimate U.S. oil production would increase by 405,000 (barrels per day, or bpd) between fourth quarter 2017 and fourth quarter 2016 across the Permian, Eagle Ford, Bakken and Niobrara shale plays,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

The U.S. market will be closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.

(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in SINGAPORE and Aaron Sheldrick in TOKYO; Editing by Louise Heavens/Ruth Pitchford)

Oil price slides on prospect of rising U.S. production

Gas nozzles

By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Wednesday on expectations that U.S. producers would boost output, just as OPEC signaled that a global supply-reduction deal will shrink the oil glut this year.

Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were down 75 cents $54.72 a barrel at 1230 GMT.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were trading down 81 cents at $51.67 per barrel.

U.S. shale production is set to snap a three-month decline in February, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, as energy firms boost drilling activity with crude prices hovering near 18-month highs.

February production will edge up 40,750 barrels per day (bpd) to 4.748 million bpd, the EIA said. In January, it was expected to drop by 5,900 bpd.

“It’s the eternal question about the current flat price and what it does to U.S. crude oil production,” Petromatrix oil strategist Olivier Jakob said.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, excluding Indonesia, pumped 33.085 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, according to figures OPEC collects from secondary sources, down 221,000 bpd from November, OPEC said in a monthly report on Wednesday.

OPEC cut its forecast of supply in 2017 from non-member countries following pledges by Russia and other non-members to join OPEC in limiting output.

OPEC now expects non-OPEC supply to rise by 120,000 bpd this year, down from growth of 300,000 bpd last month, despite an upwardly revised forecast of U.S. supply.

Under the agreement, OPEC, Russia and other non-OPEC producers have pledged to cut oil output by nearly 1.8 million bpd, initially for six months, to bring supplies back in line with consumption.

The output cuts agreed by OPEC and others are likely to come largely from field and refinery maintenance, BMI Research said in a note. It said oil producers are expected to use lower volumes needed for domestic power generation in a bid to maintain export volumes.

“Sticking to output targets is important but export volumes from the participating countries are a much better indicator of how the cuts will affect the market,” it said.

“Participating members are keen not to sacrifice vital export revenue so are trying to find ways to limit domestic crude usage in order to prioritize filling their contracts to foreign refiners.”

A committee responsible for monitoring compliance with the agreement meets in Vienna on Jan. 21-22.

(Additional reporting by Naveen Thukral in Singapore. Editing by Jane Merriman and David Evans)

Oil prices down, but set for biggest yearly gain since 2009

A worker fills a tank with subsidized fuel at a fuel station in Jakarta

By Ethan Lou

(Reuters) – Oil prices were down on Friday, but were still on track for their biggest annual gain since 2009 after OPEC and other major producers agreed to cut output to reduce a global supply overhang that has depressed prices for two years.

U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 25 cents at $53.52 a barrel by 9:38 a.m. EST on Friday, while Brent fell 26 cents to $56.59.

Brent has risen about 50 percent this year and WTI has climbed around 43 percent, the largest annual gains since 2009, when Brent and WTI rose 78 percent and 71 percent respectively.

Oil prices have more than halved since the summer of 2014, when it was above $100 a barrel. The fall in prices due to oversupply, in part thanks to the U.S. shale oil revolution, was accentuated later that year when Saudi Arabia rejected any OPEC deal to cut output and instead fought for market share.

But a new agreement to reduce production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), struck over three months from September this year, marks a return to the 13-country group’s old objective of defending prices.

Oman told some customers it will reduce term allocations by 5 percent in March, but did not say whether the supply reduction would continue after that.

Although doubts remain as to the production cuts’ effectiveness in implementation, the rise in prices can be seen as “proof of international credibility,” for OPEC and partners, said Igor Yusufov, founder of the Fund Energy investment firm and a former Russian energy minister.

Equally as important to oil prices next year will be the development of demand globally, and major forecasters diverge in their predictions.

“We see a big variation in demand growth assessments for 2017, ranging from +1.22 million bpd (barrels per day) … to +1.57 million b/d,” analysts at JBC said in a note to clients.

“Overall, all forecasters agree that Asia will remain the main engine for demand growth.”

Oil will gradually rise towards $60 per barrel by the end of 2017, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, with further upside capped by a strong dollar, a likely recovery in U.S. oil output, and possible non-compliance with agreed cuts.

The market on Friday shrugged off an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories, which rose 614,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 23 according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data. Analysts had expected a decrease of 2.1 million barrels.

(Reporting by Ethan Lou in Kingston, Ontario; Additional reporting by Sabina Zawadzki in London and Mark Tay in Singapore; Editing by Dale Hudson and Chizu Nomiyama)

Highlights: Russian President Putin’s end-of-year news conference

Journalists listen to Russian President Vladimir Putin during his annual end-of-year news conference in Moscow, Russia, December 23,

MOSCOW (Reuters) – The following are highlights from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual end-of-year news conference.

ON U.S. POLITICS

“The party that is called the Democrats has clearly forgotten the original meaning of that name.”

“The use of administrative resources (by the Democrats) is absolutely shameless.”

“Outstanding figures in American history from the ranks of the Democratic Party would likely be turning in their graves. Roosevelt certainly would be.”

“They (the Democrats) are losing on all fronts and looking elsewhere for things to blame. In my view this, how shall I say it, degrades their own dignity. You have to know how to lose with dignity.”

ON WHAT HE WOULD ASK DONALD TRUMP

“It’s hard to say. The U.S. President-elect should first have the opportunity to form his team in an orderly way. Without that, simply having unprepared meetings is not productive. What will the questions be? Questions about the normalization of our relations. Mr Trump did after all say during the election campaign that he thought it right to normalize U.S.-Russia links and said it would not get worse. Because they cannot get any worse, I agree with him on that. We’ll think together about how to make the situation better.”

ON DONALD TRUMP AND THE MILITARY

“In the course of his election campaign he (Trump) spoke about the necessity of strengthening the U.S. nuclear arsenal, and strengthening the armed forces. There’s nothing unusual here. To be honest, I’m a bit surprised by the words of certain other official representatives of the current administration who have for some reason set about proving that the armed forces of the United States are the most powerful in the world. No-one disputed that.”

“If anyone is unleashing an arms race it’s not us … We will never spend resources on an arms race that we can’t afford.”

ON PARTICIPATION IN ELECTIONS IN 2018

“When the time is ripe (I’ll say). I will look at what is happening in the country and in the world, and based on the results of what we have done and what we can do the decision will be made on whether I will participate in upcoming elections for the Russian president.”

ON THE ECONOMY

“(Economic) growth is happening thanks to certain sectors of the economy – machine building, chemicals, manufacturing and agriculture.”

“We saw some economic growth in November … This year we will probably have minus 0.5-0.6 percent (economic growth).”

ON INFLATION

“This year (inflation) will be significantly less than 6 percent … most likely in the region of 5.5 percent – this is a record low inflation rate, and gives us cause to expect that we will be able to reach our target and very soon get to inflation of 5 percent and then 4 percent.”

ON THE BUDGET DEFICIT

“The budget deficit will be a bit bigger .. 3.7 percent. In my view this is an absolutely acceptable amount because, among other reasons, we have preserved a positive external trade balance – more than 70 billion dollars (and) we have preserved our reserves … the central bank’s gold and forex reserves have even grown, and are now a little over 385 (billion dollars). Judging by that measure everything is fine. It’s a good safety margin.”

ON OPEC AND OIL PRICES

“We think that in the second half of 2017 the surplus of oil in the market will disappear and the oil price will stabilize. We are counting on a stabilization (of prices) at today’s level.”

“It (Russian oil production cuts agreed with OPEC) will be a smooth reduction that will hardly affect our overall output. This is perfectly acceptable to us, and we are counting on a rise in prices, which has already happened … a difference in the oil price of $10 will mean extra revenues to the budget of 1.75 trillion rubles ($28.65 billion) and an extra 750 billion rubles of income for oil companies, despite lower output. So at the end of the day everyone ends up winning.”

ON DOPING

“In this area transparency is absolutely essential … Undoubtedly there is a certain political element in all these issues. Sport should be cleansed, along with culture, of any sort of politics. Sport and culture are things that should unite people and not divide them.”

ON UKRAINE AND CRIMEA

“I am sure that sooner or later there will be a normalization of relations with Ukraine, and it (a bridge between Russian and Crimea) will be very beneficial to the development of Russia-Ukraine relations and future commercial and humanitarian links.”

ON PENSIONS

“All the necessary money is in place next year so we can from Feb.1 increase pensions in line with the rate of inflation in 2016.”

ON ALEPPO

“The president of Turkey and the leaders of Iran (also) played a huge role in this (managing the situation around Aleppo). I don’t know if this will sound immodest, but without our participation it would have been impossible.”

($1 = 61.0790 rubles)

(Reporting by Moscow Newsroom)

Oil prices rise as Middle East producers confirm supply cuts

A motorist holds a fuel pump at a Gulf petrol station in London Apri

By Sabina Zawadzki

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Tuesday, supported by strong demand in Asia and supply cuts by Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar as part of production curbs organized by OPEC and other exporters.

But traders said the market was pressured by investors closing financial positions that profited from strong gains the day before.

International Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate  flirted with negative territory in early European trading. By 1420 GMT, Brent was up 40 cents at $56.09 a barrel, while WTI was up 34 cents $53.17.

Traders said there was significant profit-taking after oil shot to mid-2015 highs earlier this week following a deal reached by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other exporters led by Russia to cut output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd).

But they added that oil markets were still broadly supported by the arrangement to crimp output.

“The market is putting a lot of importance on the commentaries coming out of OPEC and non-OPEC (and) the market is giving OPEC the benefit of the doubt that cuts will be implemented and achieved,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at Sydney’s CMC Markets.

However, analysts warned prices would turn fast if the market believed compliance was lacking.

“The plan was designed on Nov. 30. The foundation was laid down on Dec. 10. The construction will start on Jan. 1. The following three to six months will provide us with an answer as to whether the foundation is strong enough to hold the building or will it collapse like a house of cards,” PVM analysts wrote.

In a sign that producers are acting on their plans to cut output, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co told customers it would reduce Murban and Upper Zakum crude supplies by 5 percent and Das crude exports by 3 percent.

Kuwait Petroleum Corp notified customers of a cut in contractual crude supplies for January, as did Qatar Petroleum.

Meanwhile, China’s November crude output fell 9 percent from a year earlier to 3.915 million bpd, data showed on Tuesday. Production recovered from October’s 3.78 million bpd, however, which was the lowest in more than seven years.

China’s refinery throughput hit a record in November of 11.14 million bpd, up 3.4 percent year-on-year.

“Declines in Chinese … crude oil output and expansion of its strategic crude reserves underpin our view for China’s crude oil imports to strengthen,” BMI Research said.

In India, fuel demand rose 12.1 percent year-on-year in November.

(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein and Keith Wallis in Singapore; Editing by Dale Hudson and Louise Heavens)

Oil surges to one-and-a-half-year high, Fed rate increase looms

A gas station attendant pumps fuel into a customer's car at PetroChina's petrol station in Beijing, China,

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices surged to their highest since mid-2015 and U.S. Treasury yields hit a more than two-year peak on Monday after the world’s top crude producers agreed to the first joint output cut since 2001.

Coming at the start of a week when the United States is expected to raise interest rates for the only the second time since the global financial crisis, the weekend agreement between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and key non-OPEC states set the markets alive.

Brent oil futures soared 5 percent to top $57 a barrel for the first time since July 2015 and U.S. crude leapt above $54 a barrel to send global inflation gauges spiking as well.

There was particular surprise as Saudi Arabia, the world’s number one producer, said it may cut its output even more than it had first suggested at an OPEC meeting just over a week ago.

“The original OPEC deal pointed to a fairly lumpy 3 percent cut (in production), so this suggests there is a bit more upside for oil prices,” said Neil Williams, chief economist at fund manager Hermes.

On the rise in bond yields, which tend to set global borrowing costs, he added: “The Fed hike is mostly baked in so when we do get it, it will be more about the statement.”

European oil companies jumped more than 2 percent on the oil surge and helped the pan-regional STOXX 50 index add 0.1 percent, having just had its best week in exactly five years.

Bond markets in contrast were under heavy pressure. Euro zone government bond yields were sharply higher with German Bunds up 5 basis points at 0.40 percent as U.S. yields topped 2.5 percent for the first time since October 2014.

“We have seen OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreeing, which is boosting reflation expectations around the world,” said Chris Weston, an institutional dealer with IG Markets.

In another sign of the reflation trade, breakeven rates –the gap between yields of five-year U.S. debt and a matching tenor in inflation-protected securities — were at two-month highs.

Wall Street futures, meanwhile, pointed to the main U.S. indexes barely budging when they resume, having enjoyed an uninterrupted gain of nearly 4 percent over the past six sessions.

FED UP

Focus was also on the currency markets as the dollar rose to its highest since February against the Japanese yen, before what is almost certain to be the first rate hike of the year from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Japan’s yen also tends to suffer when oil prices rise, since the country is a major importer.

The Norwegian crown, Canadian dollar and Russia rouble were the big gainers from the oil deal. The rouble rose almost 2 percent against both the dollar and euro as Russia shares, which have rocketed almost 90 percent since January, hit the latest in a string of record highs.

Overnight in Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.5 percent after posting its biggest weekly rise in nearly three months last week.

China stocks suffered their biggest fall in six months as blue chips were knocked by fresh regulatory curbs to rein in insurers’ aggressive stock investments and rising bond yields prompted profit-taking in equities.

The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 2.4 percent, to 3,409.18 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.5 percent to 3,152.97 points.

China’s insurance regulator, which recently warned it would curb “barbaric” acquisitions by insurers, said late on Friday it had suspended the insurance arm of China’s Evergrande Group from conducting stock market investment.

Concerns were also rumbling about U.S.-Sino relations after Donald Trump re-ignited controversy over Taiwan.

“I fully understand the ‘one China’ policy, but I don’t know why we have to be bound by a ‘one China’ policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News.

Emerging markets are already bracing for a difficult run if U.S. rate hikes push up the dollar and global bond yields.

Turkey’s lira has borne the brunt of much of the pressure in recent weeks, and it took another 1 percent hit alongside a sharp fall in Turkish bonds after data showed the country’s economy suffering its first contraction since 2009.

Gold, meanwhile, which had a bumper first half of 2016, hit its lowest level since early February at $1,152 an ounce.

(Additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee in Hong Kong, editing by Larry King)

Dow set to open at record high; oil hits $55

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange

By Yashaswini Swamynathan

(Reuters) – The Dow was poised to open at an all-time high on Monday, as oil prices topped $55 a barrel for the first time in 16 months, and investors shrugged off the defeat of a referendum in Italy for constitutional reforms.

Futures lost ground slightly on Sunday after Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi said he would resign following the rejection.

However, world stocks, including Italian shares, reversed course to trade higher on Monday as investors bet against immediate snap elections in the country.

Brent crude prices were up 0.8 percent, after touching a high of $55.33, taking the total gains to 19 percent since Wednesday, when OPEC and other producers struck a deal to limit output to prop up prices. [O/R]

The Dow will open at a record intraday high, its eighth since Nov. 10, if active trading follows movement in futures. The index has marked four straight weeks of gains, benefiting from investors’ rotation into sectors such as financials, which are likely to gain from President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.

“You’ve got a very split tape with some sectors working well, like the financials and transports, while the rest of the market is not working well,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive at Orlando, Florida-based 50 Park Investments.

However, Wall Street closed little changed on Friday as investors booked profits off bank stocks, despite a strong payrolls report that strengthened the prospects of an interest rate hike next week.

Dow e-minis <1YMc1> were up 73 points, or 0.38 percent, at 8:28 a.m. ET (130 GMT), with 57,797 contracts changing hands on Monday.

S&P 500 e-minis <ESc1> were up 6.5 points, or 0.3 percent, with 249,606 contracts traded.

Nasdaq 100 e-minis <NQc1> were up 17.5 points, or 0.37 percent, on volume of 39,369 contracts.

An Institute of Supply Management report is likely to show activity in the U.S. services sector rose slightly in November from the previous month. The report is due at 10:00 a.m. ET (1500 GMT)

New York Federal Reserve President and permanent voting member William Dudley said Trump’s election had created “considerable” uncertainty on the policies he would pursue so it was too soon for the Fed to judge whether its plan for gradual interest rate hikes needs adjusting.

Shares of Energy Transfer <ETP.N> dropped 6.9 percent to $32 after the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers turned down a permit for the company’s controversial pipeline project running through North Dakota.

FairPoint <FRP.O> shares jumped 14.4 percent after Consolidated Communications <CNSL.O> said it would buy the broadband service provider in an all-stock deal valued at $1.5 billion, including debt.

Chesapeake Energy <CHK.N> rose 4.2 percent to $7.53 after the U.S. natural gas producer said it would sell a part of its acreage in the Haynesville Shale area for $450 million to a private company.

(Reporting by Yashaswini Swamynathan in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)