Important Takeaways:
- The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of the attack that ignited the war in the Gaza Strip, marked a major triumph for Israel. But Israeli leaders are also seeking to lock in strategic gains that go beyond military victories – to reshape the regional landscape in Israel’s favor and shield its borders from any future attacks, sources familiar with their thinking say.
- By intensifying its military operations against Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel wants to ensure that its enemies and their chief patron, Iran, don’t regroup and threaten Israeli citizens again, according to Western diplomats, Lebanese and Israeli officials, and other regional sources.
- It is also planning a response to a ballistic-missile barrage carried out by Iran on Oct. 1, its second direct attack on Israel in six months.
- Israel informed several Arab states last year that it also wanted to carve out a buffer zone on the Palestinian side of Gaza’s border. But it remains unclear how deep Israel would like it to be or how it would be enforced after the war ends.
- Israel has said it will not agree to a permanent ceasefire without guarantees that whoever runs postwar Gaza will be able to prevent the corridor from being used to smuggle weapons and supplies to Hamas.
- Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said last week the response would be “lethal, precise, and, above all, unexpected”, although he has also said Israel was not looking to open new fronts.
- Iran has warned repeatedly that it will not hesitate to take military action again if Israel retaliates.
- For now, Netanyahu appears determined to redraw the map around Israel in his favor by purging its enemies from its borders.
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Important Takeaways:
- Hezbollah announced a “new and escalatory phase” in its war with Israel on Thursday – hours after the Israeli military confirmed its forces killed the leader of Hamas.
- In a statement, the Iran-backed terrorist organization said that their plan “will be reflected in the developments and events of the coming days” as hundreds of fighters are prepared to “counter any Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanese villages.”
- Along with the two chiefs, the IDF’s airstrikes in southern Lebanon and Beirut have killed more than a dozen senior officials, including the top commanders of Hezbollah’s elite military and missile firing units.
- Hezbollah’s threat comes more than a week after it announced it was ready to engage in cease-fire talks with Israel and previously vowed that it would stop its attacks until it agreed to end the war in Gaza – despite firing missiles over the border nearly every day since Oct. 8.
- It remains unclear if Israel will accept a cease-fire deal with Hezbollah as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reiterated that the operations in Lebanon would not end until he is assured the terror group will no longer pose an active threat to northern Israel.
- The US and France have repeatedly urged the two sides to engage in a truce over fears the conflict would spark an all-out war in the Middle East.
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Important Takeaways:
- The US Embassy in Beirut is calling on Americans to leave Lebanon as soon as possible as the war between Israel and Hezbollah intensifies.
- “US citizens in Lebanon are strongly encouraged to depart now,” the embassy said in a notice to citizens on Monday. “US citizens who choose not to depart at this time should prepare contingency plans should the situation deteriorate further.”
- Just 1,100 of the estimated 86,000 Americans who live in Lebanon have fled the nation so far, with the US setting aside thousands of seats on flights out of Lebanon since Sept. 27, according to the State Department.
- The embassy, however, warned that the flights “will not continue indefinitely,” urging all Americans in Lebanon to make a decision sooner rather than later.
- Embassy officials stressed that any plans for those who choose not to leave “should not rely on the US government for assisted departure or evacuations.”
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Important Takeaways:
- The UNSC “emphasized the need for diplomatic endeavors that would bring a durable end to the conflict and allow civilians on both sides of the Blue Line to return safely to their homes.”
- The United States, which has typically blocked such measures, backed the statement. The carefully worded statement did not mention either Israel or Hezbollah, but rather referred to “the parties.”
- UNSC members expressed their “deep concern for civilian casualties and suffering the destruction of civilian infrastructure and the rising number of internally displaced people.,” Baeriswyl said. “They called on all parties to abide by international humanitarian law,” she added.
- Earlier in the day, Netanyahu said, “We will continue to strike Hezbollah without mercy everywhere in Lebanon – including Beirut. Everything is according to operational considerations.
- “We have proven this recently and we will continue to prove it in the coming days as well,” he stated prior to holding security consultations later that night in the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv.
- For the second day in a row, he also called on the United Nations to remove the peacekeepers from the border during the IDF operation to remove Hezbollah from that area.
- [Netanyahu] “Hezbollah uses UNIFIL facilities and positions as cover while it attacks Israeli cities and communities. These attacks have claimed the lives of many Israelis, including yesterday,” Netanyahu said as he referred to the Hezbollah drone that attacked an airbase in Israel, wounding 63 people and killing four.
- “Israel has every right to defend itself against Hezbollah and will continue to do so,” Netanyahu stated.
- “We regret any harm done to UNIFIL personnel and the IDF is doing its utmost to prevent such incidents,” he stressed.
- “But the best way to assure the safety of UNIFIL personnel is for UNIFIL to heed Israel’s request and to temporarily get out of harm’s way,” Netanyahu said.
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Important Takeaways:
- Netanyahu says IDF will attack Hezbollah everywhere, including Beirut
- His words followed two briefings from a senior Israeli diplomatic source that dismissed multiple media reports about a US request that Israel stop attacking Hezbollah targets in Beirut.
- Two Israeli tanks crossed into Syria on Monday, according to Israeli media, citing Syrian reports.
- According to the reports, the tanks positioned themselves near the border town of Kwdana/Kodna, south of Quneitra, which has been the site of several tank battles, most famously in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
- Hezbollah drone explodes near Binyamina, killing four soldiers and injuring dozens.
- According to the IDF’s tally, the death of Sgt. Bitan raises the total of soldiers killed on or since October 7 of last year to 740.
- Some 353 of this number were killed since the start of the military’s ground operations in the Strip on October 27.
- 101 hostages remain in Gaza
- 48 hostages in total have been killed in captivity, IDF says
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Important Takeaways:
- Many Arab nations such as Jordan and the United Arab Emirates host U.S. bases and oil facilities vital to the world economy, and Iran’s warning about helping Israel is raising fears in the region that these sites could become targets.
- Both Hamas and Hezbollah are backed by Tehran, and Pezeshkian has portrayed Iran as “exercising restraint” because it waited for two months after Haniyeh’s death before attacking Israel.
- In Gaza and Lebanon, people were counting the cost of Israeli strikes. At least 22 people were killed and 117 injured in overnight attacks on Beirut, the Lebanese capital, according to the country’s health ministry.
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Important Takeaways:
- The region has been tensely awaiting a promised Israeli reprisal for an October 1 massive ballistic missile attack by Iran, with Washington attempting to coordinate and temper Israel’s reaction.
- “There were no big decisions” made by ministers, an Israeli source told The Times of Israel, adding “There is a desire from the Israelis to coordinate with the Americans” over the response, and that strategic discussions continue between the sides.
- The Prime Minister’s Office also told The Times of Israel that Gallant’s trip to the US to discuss Israel’s response has yet to be approved
- Jerusalem has pledged a significant retaliation, but Biden — who directed US forces to help thwart the Iranian attack — has expressed opposition to targeting Iran’s nuclear or oil production sites.
- Tehran said to threaten West’s Arab allies if they assist Israeli strike
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Important Takeaways:
- Hezbollah is preparing for a long war of attrition in south Lebanon, after Israel wiped out its top leadership, with a new military command directing rocket fire and the ground conflict, two sources familiar with its operations said.
- Hezbollah has been diminished by three weeks of devastating Israeli blows – most notably the killing of its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
- Friends and foes alike are now watching how effectively it resists Israeli troops that have crossed into Lebanon with the stated aim of driving it away from the border.
- The Iran-backed group still has a considerable stockpile of weapons, including its most powerful precision missiles which it has yet to use, four sources familiar with its operations said, despite waves of airstrikes that Israel says has severely depleted its arsenal.
- “The fact that the chain of command has been damaged does not take away the ability to shoot Israeli communities or try to hit” Israeli forces, Levine told Reuters, describing Hezbollah as “the same powerful terror army we all know.”
- A statement this week signed by the “operations room of the Islamic Resistance” said fighters were resisting incursions and “watching and listening” to Israeli troops where they least expect it – an apparent reference to concealed Hezbollah positions.
- Israel says it aims to secure the return of tens of thousands of people who evacuated northern Israel after Hezbollah began firing rockets a year ago in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza.
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Important Takeaways:
- Hezbollah is still without a new leader, nearly two weeks after its long-serving chief was killed in an Israeli strike and with its deputy head apparently unwilling to step into the role.
- Hezbollah’s deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem—currently considered the organization’s top official—said in a video address streamed by Iranian news outlet Press TV on Tuesday that a new leader would be elected, suggesting he would not take up the mantle
- Dahiyeh is described by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) as Hezbollah’s nerve center and de-facto base, and has come under heavy Israeli bombardment in recent weeks.
- Hezbollah has many branches and commanders at varying levels, many of whom Israel has said it has killed.
- Israel had reportedly targeted Safieddine late last week, but there had been no confirmation whether he had been killed.
- As well as Nasrallah and Safieddine, other leading Hezbollah figures reported to have been killed include Ali Karaki, Ibrahim Aqeel and Fu’ad Shakar.
- On Tuesday, Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to Israel’s northern border with Lebanon that Hezbollah “is an organization without a head,” adding that “Nasrallah was eliminated, his replacement was probably also eliminated.”
- On Tuesday, the IDF said it had killed Suhail Hussein Husseini, described by the Israeli military as the commander of Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut.
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Important Takeaways:
- The call, under way late Wednesday morning U.S. time, was the leaders’ first known chat since August and coincided with a sharp escalation of Israel’s conflict with both Iran and the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah with no sign of an imminent ceasefire to end the conflict with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza.
- The Middle East has been on edge awaiting Israel’s response to a missile attack last week that Tehran carried out in retaliation for Israel’s military escalation in Lebanon.
- The Iranian attack ultimately killed no one in Israel and Washington called it ineffective.
- Netanyahu has promised that arch-foe Iran will pay for its missile attack, while Tehran has said any retaliation would be met with vast destruction, raising fears of a wider war in the oil-producing region which could draw in the United States.
- Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant canceled a Wednesday visit to the Pentagon, the Pentagon said, as Israeli media reported Netanyahu wanted first to speak with Biden.
- Israel has faced calls by the United States and other allies to accept a ceasefire deal in Gaza and Lebanon but has said it will continue its military operations until Israelis are safe.
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