Important Takeaways:
- One question is whether the new administration and Europe will provide security guarantees to prevent Russia from taking more territory.
- The one gold-standard security guarantee that Ukraine wants is an invitation to join NATO. But it could not get that under Mr. Biden, and an invitation is unlikely during Mr. Trump’s presidency.
- So, U.S. and European officials are discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine, such as stockpiling a conventional arsenal sufficient to strike a punishing blow if Russia violates a cease-fire.
- Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications.
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Important Takeaways:
- Scientists studying the new mpox strain that has spread out of Democratic Republic of Congo say the virus is changing faster than expected, and often in areas where experts lack the funding and equipment to properly track it.
- That means there are numerous unknowns about the virus itself, its severity and how it is transmitting, complicating the response, half a dozen scientists in Africa, Europe and the United States told Reuters.
- A new strain of the virus, known as clade Ib, has the world’s attention again after the WHO declared a new health emergency.
- The strain is a mutated version of clade I, a form of mpox spread by contact with infected animals that has been endemic in Congo for decades. Mpox typically causes flu-like symptoms and pus-filled lesions and can kill.
- Congo has had more than 18,000 suspected clade I and clade Ib mpox cases and 615 deaths this year, according to the WHO. There have also been 222 confirmed clade Ib cases in four African countries in the last month, plus a case each in Sweden and Thailand in people with a travel history in Africa.
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Important Takeaways:
- Leaders from across Europe expressed support for Ukraine and concern about the direction of the United States on Thursday at a security-focused summit clouded by worries about whether the U.S. will remain a reliable ally if Donald Trump wins a second presidency
- Newly elected U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed around 45 heads of government to a grandiose English country mansion to discuss migration, energy security and the threat from Russia as he seeks to restore relations between the U.K. and its European Union neighbors four years after their acrimonious divorce.
- Starmer said that the U.K. plans to take a more active role on the world stage, especially when it comes to Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion and to people-smuggling gangs organizing irregular migration.
- Trump’s skepticism about NATO has long worried U.S. allies. Trump’s choice of Sen. JD Vance, an opponent of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, as vice presidential running mate has heightened concerns.
- Hungary’s pro-Russia Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said a Trump victory would be “the best news for everybody, because he’s a man of the people.”
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Important Takeaways:
- The US military has raised the alert level of several of its bases across Europe to the second-highest level in a move that hasn’t been seen ‘in at least ten years.’
- The US Army Garrison in Stuttgart, Germany, America’s military headquarters in Europe, bases in Rheinland-Pfalz and Ramstein, and Aviano Air Base in Italy were all put on alert level ‘Charlie’ over the weekend, several publications reported.
- The ‘Charlie’ threat level only ‘applies when an incident occurs or intelligence is received indicating some form of terrorist action or targeting against personnel or facilities is likely,’ according to the US Army.
- It is not currently known why the four bases, which together make up the largest overseas US military community, raised their threat levels.
- But a US official told CNN that they haven’t seen a threat level this high ‘in at least 10 years’, adding that this usually means the military is aware of an ‘active-reliable threat.’
- In addition to the formally raised alert level, Spangdahlem Air Base in West Germany told airmen from its 52nd Fighter unit that they were prohibited from wearing their uniforms off-base, and must commute in civilian clothing, military publication Stars and Stripes reported.
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Important Takeaways:
- Dwindling number of D-Day veterans mark anniversary with plea to recall WWII lessons in today’s wars
- The war in Ukraine shadowed the ceremonies, a grim modern-day example of lives and cities that are again suffering through war in Europe.
- “There are things worth fighting for,” said Walter Stitt, who fought in tanks and turns 100 in July, as he visited Omaha Beach this week. “Although I wish there was another way to do it than to try to kill each other. We’ll learn one of these days, but I won’t be around for that.”
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s presence at the D-Day commemorations with world leaders who are supporting Ukraine fused World War II’s awful past with the fraught present.
- Feted everywhere they go in wheelchairs and walking with canes, veterans are using their voices to repeat their message they hope will live eternal: Never forget.
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Important Takeaways:
- NATO is drawing up plans to send American troops to the frontlines of Europe in the event of an all-out conflict with Russia, it has been revealed.
- New ‘land corridors’ are being carved out to quickly funnel soldiers through central Europe without local bureaucratic impediments, allowing NATO forces to pounce in an instant should Putin’s devastating war in Ukraine move further west.
- The plans are said to include contingencies in case of Russian bombardment, letting troops sweep into the Balkans via corridors in Italy, Greece and Turkey, or towards Russia’s northern border via Scandinavia, officials told The Telegraph.
- Tensions have ratcheted up in recent weeks, with Russian President Vladimir Putin openly acknowledging the ‘possibility’ of ‘a full-scale Third World War’ as he threatens ‘fatal consequences’ for western allies allowing Ukraine use of their weapons on Russian soil.
- But amid warnings from Norway’s top general that Europe only has two to three years to prepare before Russia could realistically attack the bloc, NATO is said to be exploring possible countermeasures.
- NATO leaders agreed last year to prepare 300,000 troops to be kept in a state of high readiness to defend the bloc in case of an attack on a member state – just under half the force Napoleon sent to Russia in his disastrous 1812 campaign.
- Russia meanwhile continues to amass forces. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) thinktank assessed that the Russian military began 2023 with a ‘highly disorganized force in Ukraine’ of around 360,000 troops, rising to 410,000 by the summer.
- By the beginning of this year, they reported, there were 470,000 troops in occupied territories.
- French President Emmanuel Macron has urged NATO unity against a belligerent Russian aggressor, warning ‘the rules of the game has changed’ in a recent speech in Paris.
- ‘The fact that war has returned to European soil, and that it is being waged by a nuclear-armed power, changes everything,’ he told an audience at the Sorbonne late in April.
- Macron warned that Europe is ‘not armed against the risks we face’ abroad and urged his allies on the continent to avoid overreliance on the US for security.
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Important Takeaways:
- Britain is engaged in a “gray war” with Russia, but neither the authorities nor the public are taking the situation seriously enough, the former head of the famed spy agency MI6, Richard Dearlove, has warned.
- The UK military isn’t getting enough money to be able to counter the “threats” posed by Moscow and Beijing, Richard Dearlove, who led the British Secret Intelligence Service between 1999 and 2004, said in an interview with Politico on Friday.
- The statement followed last week’s announcement of the UK’s budget for the next financial year, in which there was no increase in defense spending. It remains at 2% of the country’s GDP.
- “If you stopped anyone in the street here in the UK and asked them whether they thought Britain is at war, they’d look at you as if you were mad. But we are at war — we’re engaged in a gray war with Russia, and I am trying to remind people of that,” the former spy chief said.
- The British authorities have “got to make some tough choices, and I’m afraid the tough choices are in front of us right now. We should be spending at least 2.5%” on defense, he insisted.
- “We urgently need to be building more ships. We need a much bigger navy. And we need more boots on the ground, for God’s sake,” Dearlove stressed.
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Important Takeaways:
- Emmanuel Macron has said he would be prepared to send troops to Ukraine if Vladimir Putin’s forces break through the front lines – further raising the risk of NATO forces clashing with Russia’s armies.
- In an interview published today, the French president said the issue of sending troops would ‘legitimately’ arise if Kyiv and President Volodymyr Zelensky made such a request.
- The Economist said Macron gave the interview after delivering a keynote speech last week where he declared that Europe is ‘mortal’ and could ‘die’ partly due to the threat posed by Russian aggression after its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
- It also came as Russia claimed its forces had taken another town in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, with Moscow’s armies continuing to push against Kyiv’s defenses.
- Russia is rushing to advance against struggling Ukrainian forces ahead of the long-awaited arrival of the bulk of US weapons to the front for Kyiv’s outgunned troops.
- ‘I’m not ruling anything out, because we are facing someone who is not ruling anything out,’ Macron said when asked if he stood by comments earlier this year not excluding the sending of Western troops that sent shockwaves around Europe.
- Such a move would see NATO troops go head-to-head with those in the Russian army, dramatically increasing the risk of an escalation.
- ‘I have a clear strategic objective: Russia cannot win in Ukraine,’ Macron said.
- ‘If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe,’ he warned.
- ‘Who can pretend that Russia will stop there? What security will there be for the other neighboring countries, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and the others?’
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia has warned that Poland will make itself a ‘priority target’ if it hosts NATO nuclear weapons on its territory. In a Thursday statement Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said “Moves in this direction will not provide greater security (for Poland or other nations that host such weapons).” He was further quoted in Russian media as saying:
- Moscow considers any expansion of NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangement as “deeply destabilizing” in nature, “and in fact threatening” Russia, Ryabkov was quoted as saying by TASS on Thursday. This applies to joint missions, where non-nuclear members of the US-led bloc are trained to use American hardware, and even more so to the permanent stationing of such weapons “which hotheads in Warsaw are talking about,” he said.
- In follow-up, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stipulated that “any nuclear weapons deployed to Poland would be legitimate targets in the event of war with the alliance.” Russian media translations said Moscow would see this as a “priority target”.
- While three NATO members are officially nuclear weapons states – the United States, France and the United Kingdom – others are authorized to host nukes (typically ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons). They are Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.
- Apparently, Poland is now throwing its name in the hat for NATO’s nuclear-sharing program, which would expand Western nuke placement right up to Russia’s backyard.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia producing three times more artillery shells than US and Europe for Ukraine
- Russia appears on track to produce nearly three times more artillery munitions than the US and Europe, a key advantage ahead of what is expected to be another Russian offensive in Ukraine later this year.
- Russia is producing about 250,000 artillery munitions per month, or about 3 million a year, according to NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN, as well as sources familiar with Western efforts to arm Ukraine. Collectively, the US and Europe have the capacity to generate only about 1.2 million munitions annually to send to Kyiv, a senior European intelligence official told CNN.
- “What we are in now is a production war,” a senior NATO official told CNN. “The outcome in Ukraine depends on how each side is equipped to conduct this war.”
- Officials say Russia is currently firing around 10,000 shells a day, compared to just 2,000 a day from the Ukrainian side. The ratio is worse in some places along the 600-mile front, according to a European intelligence official
- Russia is running artillery factories “24/7” on rotating 12-hour shifts, the NATO official said. About 3.5 million Russians now work in the defense sector, up from somewhere between 2 and 2.5 million before the war. Russia is also importing ammunition: Iran sent at least 300,000 artillery shells last year — “probably more than that,” the official said — and North Korea provided at least 6,700 containers of ammunition carrying millions of shells.
- Russia has “put everything they have in the game,” the intelligence official said. “Their war machine works in full gear.”
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