Important Takeaways:
- Just 14% of Americans think Biden has made them better off as president: Another dire poll shows 70% believe Bidenomics has ‘hurt’ them
- When asked what was causing them most financial stress, some 82 percent of those surveyed said price increases.
- ‘Every group — Democrats, Republicans and independents — list rising prices as by far the biggest economic threat . . . and the biggest source of financial stress,’ said Erik Gordon, a professor at Michigan’s Ross School.
- ‘That is bad news for Biden, and the more so considering how little he can do to reverse the perception of prices before election day.’
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Important Takeaways:
- Credit card balances spiked in the third quarter to a $1.08 trillion record. Here’s how we got here
- Americans now owe $1.08 trillion on their credit cards, according to a new report on household debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Credit card balances spiked by $154 billion year over year, notching the largest increase since 1999, the New York Fed found.
- “Credit card balances experienced a large jump in the third quarter, consistent with strong consumer spending and real GDP growth,” said Donghoon Lee, the New York Fed’s economic research advisor.
- Credit card delinquency rates also rose across the board, according to the New York Fed, but especially among millennials, or borrowers between the ages of 30 and 39, who are burdened by high levels of student loan debt.
- With most people feeling strained by higher prices — particularly for food, gas and housing — more cardholders are carrying debt from month to month or falling behind on payments, and a greater percentage of balances are going more than 180 days delinquent, according to a separate report from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
- Nearly one-tenth of credit card users find themselves in “persistent debt” where they are charged more in interest and fees each year than they pay toward the principal — a pattern that is increasingly difficult to break, the consumer watchdog said.
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Important Takeaways:
- Europe’s economy risks a recession after output falls in the third quarter
- The euro area economy risks falling into recession later this year after official data Tuesday showed that output shrank slightly in the third quarter.
- Gross domestic product across the 20 countries that use the euro fell 0.1% in the July-to-September quarter compared with the previous three months, according to an initial estimate published by Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics office.
- The dip follows a rise of only 0.2% in the April-to-June quarter and highlights the fine line between contraction and growth in the eurozone. GDP was stagnant in the final three months of 2022 and the first quarter of this year.
- “The big picture is that the eurozone is struggling. It has only grown by 0.1% over the past year, and the timeliest business surveys consistently point to activity declining at the start of [the fourth quarter],”
- Recent survey data shows that activity in the eurozone’s manufacturing and services sectors has been on a downward trajectory, with demand for goods and services set to weaken further.
- Even if the region avoids a recession, economists say a meaningful recovery is still some way off.
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Important Takeaways:
- One key question about the Russo-Ukraine War is: how long can the Russian economy keep it up? After all, the intention of Western economic and financial sanctions against Russia was to cripple Russian growth and render its war machine incapable of maintaining the fight.
- Russia’s heavily-oil-dependent economy is estimated to have lost over $100 billion as a consequence of oil sanctions.
- Yet economies at war often find a way to keep going for longer than one might think, provided that domestic citizens retain faith in their leaders
- The current violent attacks by Hamas on Israel may even have had, as one of their goals, a rise in oil prices – after all, Russia is a significant Hamas backer.
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Important Takeaways:
- Most Still See Another Depression Ahead
- Despite claims by President Joe Biden about the strength of America’s economy, most Americans still think we’re headed toward another Great Depression.
- The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 52% of American Adults believe it is likely that, over the next few years, the United States will enter a 1930s-like depression, including 21% who say a major depression is Very Likely. Thirty-six percent (36%) don’t think another Great Depression is likely over the next few years, including 11% who say it’s Not At All Likely. Another 11% are not sure.
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Important Takeaways:
- This Extremely Important Indicator Is Absolutely Screaming That A Recession Is Coming
- A lot of the talking heads on television seem to think that the threat of a recession has passed
- [But]…the numbers are clearly telling us that economic conditions are rapidly getting worse.
- There is one extremely important indicator that has been absolutely screaming that a recession is coming.
- 10-year bond yields have now been below 3-month bond yields for 212 trading days in a row, and such an inversion has “telegraphed the last eight recessions”…
- But for 212 straight trading days, no matter what the indicators have said, the Treasury market has delivered what is widely understood as a starkly different message: The economy is veering toward a contraction, since 10-year yields have held below 3-month ones.
- Such an inversion telegraphed the last eight recessions. And on Thursday, the market surpassed the 1980 record to hold that way for the longest consecutive daily stretch since Bloomberg’s records begin in 1962.
- But there have been times when the inversion has happened quite a bit before the recession arrived…
- Moreover, the yield curve sometimes inverts long before a contraction. In July 2006, the 10-year yield started holding consistently below the 3-month rate, but the downturn didn’t start until December 2007.
- It appears that something similar is happening now.
- A very painful storm is going to hit our economy.
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Important Takeaways:
- Luxury furniture companies report huge losses as experts say stalling housing market means nobody is buying new sofas
- Furniture retailers are seeing sales slow as experts claim America’s cooling housing market means fewer shoppers are purchasing sofas.
- Two luxury US firms reported drops in their second-quarter sales last week, with California-based RH recording a fall of 19 percent while Hooker Furnishings said revenue was down 36 percent.
- Their share prices fell 16 and 17 percent respectively on Friday, CNN reported.
- Last month, Williams-Sonoma, which owns West Elm and Pottery Barn, reported the two brands dropped 20 and 10 percent from their respective revenues.
- Similarly, Wayfair, an online furniture seller, saw its second-quarter revenue decline 3.4 percent, CNN noted. Another furniture manufacturer, La-Z-Boy, reported a 20 percent drop in sales in August.
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Important Takeaways:
- RIP Beverly Hills: Startling video shows how once-thriving shopping mecca is now a desolate wasteland as high-end shops, banks, and restaurants shutter their doors amid economic woes and crime
- The closed shops, which also include convenience retailers like Rite Aid and Chipotle, and even popular workout class option SoulCycle, have shuttered their doors on Wilshire Boulevard, leaving the area bereft of its former appeal. Their sad decline marks a departure from the area’s lengthy heyday…
- The reasons for the ample number of closures vary, as many brands see a decrease in demand for in-person retail experiences, while others pivot business strategies following acquisitions by other brands. The downturned economy has also negatively impacted most brands, but especially those marketing luxury products.
- Businesses in Beverly Hills, and Los Angeles in general, are also in the midst of contending with a major spike in crime that has left many stores defenseless against mobs of robbers.
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Important Takeaways:
- Inflation, unemployment and gross domestic product numbers are all giving Biden something to smile about.
- Even though Americans are making more than they did before the pandemic, their money is getting them a lot less than it did two and half years ago.
- While American paychecks are finally outpacing skyrocketing inflation, they have not been growing anywhere near as fast as prices have the last two and a half years
- People don’t like inflation, even when their wages are up, Americans will focus on the slow pace of real wage growth, rather than real wage growth alone.
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Revelations 13:16-18 “Also it causes all, both small and great, both rich and poor, both free and slave, to be marked on the right hand or the forehead, so that no one can buy or sell unless he has the mark, that is, the name of the beast or the number of its name. This calls for wisdom: let the one who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man, and his number is 666.”
Important Takeaways:
- Yellen Faces a Diplomatic Test in Her High-Stakes Visit to China
- The Treasury secretary will need to defend export controls and tariffs while explaining that the United States does not aim to harm China’s economy.
- The trip, her first to the country as Treasury secretary, represents Ms. Yellen’s most challenging test of economic diplomacy to date as she attempts to ease years of festering distrust between the United States and China.
- For Ms. Yellen, the challenge will be to convince her Chinese counterparts that the bevy of U.S. measures blocking access to sensitive technology such as semiconductors in the name of national security are not intended to inflict harm on the Chinese economy.
- In her meetings in Beijing, Ms. Yellen is expected to make the case that the Biden administration’s actions to make the U.S. economy less reliant on China and to entice more production of critical materials inside the United States are narrowly focused measures that are not meant to instigate a broader economic war.
- China continues to hold nearly $1 trillion of U.S. debt and is America’s third-largest trading partner, making an abrupt severing of ties potentially calamitous for both countries and the global economy.
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