Important Takeaways:
- This Extremely Important Indicator Is Absolutely Screaming That A Recession Is Coming
- A lot of the talking heads on television seem to think that the threat of a recession has passed
- [But]…the numbers are clearly telling us that economic conditions are rapidly getting worse.
- There is one extremely important indicator that has been absolutely screaming that a recession is coming.
- 10-year bond yields have now been below 3-month bond yields for 212 trading days in a row, and such an inversion has “telegraphed the last eight recessions”…
- But for 212 straight trading days, no matter what the indicators have said, the Treasury market has delivered what is widely understood as a starkly different message: The economy is veering toward a contraction, since 10-year yields have held below 3-month ones.
- Such an inversion telegraphed the last eight recessions. And on Thursday, the market surpassed the 1980 record to hold that way for the longest consecutive daily stretch since Bloomberg’s records begin in 1962.
- But there have been times when the inversion has happened quite a bit before the recession arrived…
- Moreover, the yield curve sometimes inverts long before a contraction. In July 2006, the 10-year yield started holding consistently below the 3-month rate, but the downturn didn’t start until December 2007.
- It appears that something similar is happening now.
- A very painful storm is going to hit our economy.
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