Important Takeaways:
- The United States and nine allied nations on Thursday formally accused the Russian government of masterminding cyberattacks in 2020 on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, among many other targets.
- The countries pinned the attacks, which largely used a type of malware known as “WhisperGate,” on GRU Unit 29155, a Russian military hacking group.
- Hacking efforts as part of this campaign began in 2020, and included attacks on Ukrainian groups in January 2022 ahead of Russia’s invasion, along with critical infrastructure organizations in government, transportation, financial, health and other sectors in NATO member states.
- According to the FBI, this hacking activity included more than 14,000 observed instances of scanning networks in more than 20 NATO member states and European nations, along with targeting of groups in Central American and Asian nations.
- The Justice Department accused the group of carrying out attacks, including the probing of an unnamed Maryland-based U.S. government agency between August 2021 and February 2022, and of hacking the transportation infrastructure of an unnamed Central European nation supportive of Ukraine in mid-2022.
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Important Takeaways:
- Two employees of Russian state media, Russia Today (RT), were indicted, dozens of internet domains were seized for “malign influence campaigns” and a new visa restriction policy was introduced as part of the efforts to check foreign influence.
- According to an indictment unsealed by the Justice Department on Wednesday, two senior employees of the state-funded RT used shell companies and fake identities to pay $10m to a Tennessee-based media operation to create content benefitting Russia.
- US Attorney General Merrick Garland told reporters that the operation involved millions of followers and never disclosed that it was being directed by Moscow while falsely claiming it was being funded by a private investor.
- According to the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the Treasury, sanctions were imposed on a total of 10 individuals and two entities.
- The State Department has also imposed visa restrictions on the designated individuals and offered a reward of up to $10m for information pertaining to foreign interference in the US election.
- Moscow allegedly wants to see Trump become president for a second time because the Republican candidate has repeatedly expressed his dissatisfaction with the tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine.
- US authorities have said their efforts to counter interference operations are ongoing.
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Important Takeaways:
- On Tuesday, federal prosecutors unsealed the indictment against 41-year-old Linda Sun, born in China and a naturalized American citizen, and her husband, 40-year-old Chris Hu. The indictment charges the couple with operating a money laundering and bank fraud scheme thanks in part to Sun’s allegedly acting as an agent of influence for China while working in Cuomo and Hochul’s administrations.
- The couple were arrested and arraigned in federal court in Brooklyn on Tuesday.
- The 64-page indictment is far-reaching, detailing Sun’s alleged work as an agent for China and her husband’s subsequent illegal business dealings in China. In particular, the indictment lays out how Sun allegedly acted on behalf of the CCP while working for Cuomo, who is called “Politician-1,” and Hochul, who is called “Politician-2.” The indictment states:
- The defendant LINDA SUN acted at the order, direction, or request of representatives of the [People’s Republic of China (PRC)] government and the CCP to engage in political activities intended to influence the public, including the [New York State (NYS)] government, with respect to the political or public interests of the PRC government and the CCP.
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Important Takeaways:
- A top Chinese general on Thursday told White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan that the U.S. must stop its “collusion” with Taiwan, during a high-stakes meeting in Beijing.
- Zhang Youxia, vice chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, told Sullivan that Taiwan “is at the very core of China’s core interests, the bedrock of the political foundation of China-US relations, and the first red line that must not be crossed,” according to a readout from the Chinese Ministry of National Defense.
- “The PLA will definitely take countermeasures against the provocations of the Taiwan independence forces,” the readout said…
- “China urges the US side to stop military collusion with Taiwan, stop arming Taiwan, and stop spreading false narratives on Taiwan.”
- The U.S. has unofficial relations with Taiwan, which China claims as its own, but commits to supporting and arming the self-governing island nation.
- Intimidating Chinese drills and military exercises around Taiwan have increased in recent years, and accelerated after the inauguration earlier this year of pro-U.S. Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te.
- Xi told Biden in the San Francisco summit that he would reunify with Taiwan, by force if necessary.
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Important Takeaways:
- Three weeks ago, Ukraine’s military launched a stunning operation to take the war in Ukraine back onto the territory of the country that launched it. Three weeks later, the Ukrainians still occupy hundreds of miles of territory in Russia’s western Kursk region.
- The incursion had a number of goals: to force Russia to divert its forces from Ukraine to defend its own towns and cities; to seize territory that might later be used for bargaining leverage in peace negotiations; and to send a political message to the Russian people and their leaders that they are not safe from the consequences of the war launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin nearly two-and-a-half years ago.
- But there was also a less obvious objective: Leaders in Kyiv likely hoped to send a message to their friends in the United States and Europe that their approach to the war has been overly cautious — that fears about “escalation,” “red lines,” and Russian nuclear use — a threat that Putin himself has voiced repeatedly — have been overblown.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged this explicitly in a speech on August 19, saying, “We are now witnessing a significant ideological shift, namely, the whole naive, illusory concept of so-called ‘red lines’ refs somewhere near Sudzha” — a town near the border now under the control of Ukrainian forces.
- The Russian government has certainly done everything in its power to add nuclear uncertainty to Western leaders’ calculations. From the very first day of the invasion, Putin has made repeated references to his country’s nuclear arsenal — the largest in the world — and warned countries that get in Russia’s way of “consequences that you have never faced in your history.”
- Over the course of the war, Putin and other Russian officials have made repeated references to “red lines” that should not be crossed if Western governments don’t want to face a catastrophic response. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has been particularly active in threatening foreign powers with “nuclear apocalypse” via his social media accounts.
- It’s not all rhetoric: The Russian government has taken steps such as moving some of its nuclear weapons to Belarus and conducting realistic drills for using tactical nuclear weapons — seemingly in an effort to remind Ukraine’s allies of Russia’s capabilities.
- Pavel Podvig, senior researcher on Russia’s nuclear arsenal at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva [thinks] Putin would be unlikely to consider any sort of nuclear use unless the very existence of the Russian state were threatened. “Even the loss of a region like Kursk technically would not qualify,”
- As the Council on Foreign Relations’s Fix put it, Western “red lines” on aid to Ukraine have clearly shifted. The problem is “we don’t know how the red lines are shifting in Putin’s mind.”
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Important Takeaways:
- New wars, old wars, famine, panic everywhere. So much for a quiet August
- From Bangladesh to Venezuela, one calamity rapidly overtakes another, but common denominators include poverty, corruption and lack of hope
- [Bangladesh] Last week’s revolution in Bangladesh captured the tone. Recalling the 1986 “people power” overthrow of Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines, Sheikh Hasina, a pro-democracy prime minister turned late-life autocrat, did not merely lose her job. She nearly lost her head, legging it into last-minute exile. Bangladesh, in turmoil and beset by score-settling, must piece itself back together. It won’t be easy.
- [Venezuela] …the uproar following Venezuela’s election travesty. President Nicolás Maduro, no Chávez he, thought it was in the bag. Then the actual votes started coming in. Appalled, he belatedly realized he was losing. Publication of results was abruptly suspended, Maduro claimed a bogus victory, and the familiar lies, crackdowns and violence began.
- Except, this time, like Bangladesh, repression hasn’t worked. Vote tallies have not been released, so no one believes him. The US and Europe say that opposition candidate Edmundo González won. Even friendly leftwing governments in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico are jibbing. Hundreds have been arrested, dozens have died. Yet Maduro won’t budge, and so the crisis deepens.
- [Africa] Poverty, lack of opportunity and official corruption roil the global street. In Kenya, young anti-government demonstrators sparked copycat generation Z protests in Nigeria and Uganda. About 70% of Africa’s fast-expanding population is under 30. Youthful insurrection is not confined to a single calendar month. It’s ongoing.
- In the Middle East, matters go from bad to seriously worse, fueling fears of region-wide war. Iran’s response to the assassination of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran is awaited with trepidation. It’s an old story. Western countries conduct emergency evacuations. Israel, backed by the US, prepares to strike back.
- [Ukraine] The conflict dramatically intensified this month after a large Ukrainian force invaded Russia right back.
- Sudan’s civil war is a catastrophe with dire implications for the whole Sahel region, terrorism and migration – yet few seem to notice, let alone care.
- At the opposite end of the spectrum, the wealthy wolves of Wall Street and other financial centers were busy making their own contribution to international insecurity with an irresponsible, rollercoaster display of record stock market instability. Yet jobbers’ jitters surely reflect the fears and uncertainties of a world running clean out of control.
- Speaking of control, the “indispensable” country that much of the world looks to in times of trouble spent August hopelessly distracted by domestic political tumult. Don’t expect the US to sort things out, unless Joe Biden produces a parting rabbit. Harris v Trump is shaping up to be the knock-down, scratch-your-eyes-out, photo-finish fight of the century.
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Important Takeaways:
- United States and Canadian fighter jets intercepted four Russian and Chinese bombers that were flying in international airspace near Alaska on Wednesday, officials said.
- Wednesday’s joint Russian and Chinese flight was…notable for being the first intercept of Chinese military aircraft near Alaska
- The joint Russian and Chinese flight reflects the growing military ties between the two nations.
- NORAD stressed that the flight “is not seen as a threat” and that it will continue to monitor activity near North America “and meet presence with presence.”
- “We’re keeping a watchful eye on how they’re developing their capacity for operating in the region,” Iris Ferguson, deputy assistant Secretary of Defense for Arctic and Global Resilience, told reporters Monday.
- “As we say in the department, you know, they are our long-term pacing challenge. And I think that includes in the Arctic.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Leaders from across Europe expressed support for Ukraine and concern about the direction of the United States on Thursday at a security-focused summit clouded by worries about whether the U.S. will remain a reliable ally if Donald Trump wins a second presidency
- Newly elected U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed around 45 heads of government to a grandiose English country mansion to discuss migration, energy security and the threat from Russia as he seeks to restore relations between the U.K. and its European Union neighbors four years after their acrimonious divorce.
- Starmer said that the U.K. plans to take a more active role on the world stage, especially when it comes to Ukraine’s fight against Russia’s invasion and to people-smuggling gangs organizing irregular migration.
- Trump’s skepticism about NATO has long worried U.S. allies. Trump’s choice of Sen. JD Vance, an opponent of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, as vice presidential running mate has heightened concerns.
- Hungary’s pro-Russia Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said a Trump victory would be “the best news for everybody, because he’s a man of the people.”
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Important Takeaways:
- China rehearses assault on US stealth fighter bases: Beijing military stages attacks on F-35 and F-22 jets as it looks to deter American intervention in Taiwan
- China is bombing models of American fighter jets as part of a rehearsal of a military assault, new satellite photos have revealed.
- The images, taken by Planet Labs over a remote desert area in northwest China, show massive scorch marks next to low-tech models of F-35s and F-22s, some of the most advanced jets used by the US Army.
- The photos also show a long runway with several scotch marks at the top end.
- It is not currently known exactly what weapons were used to leave the marks, but the Times reported that the scale of them would suggest precision missiles were used.
- The desert, the Taklamakan in Xinjiang province, already hosts military testing sites. Three years ago, it was revealed that China had built up models of an American Ford-class aircraft carrier and two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.
- It comes as a Chinese military drone hovered near an airport on a remote Taiwan island causing delays to flights, Taipei’s military and local media said on Wednesday.
- In addition to military pressure from Chinese warplanes and vessels that maintain a near-daily presence around the island, Taiwan has faced incursions from civilian and unidentified drones that surveil and harass troops.
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Important Takeaways:
- The Pentagon has warned Israel against any “miscalculation” along its northern border with Lebanon, as fighting between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Iran-aligned Hezbollah militia continues and Israeli leaders threaten to launch a full-scale cross-frontier incursion.
- Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said the U.S. believes a diplomatic solution to the border tensions is still achievable and that “no one” would benefit from a new Israel-Lebanon war, which could plunge the region into fresh conflict
- Israeli troops, meanwhile, have been training for a possible incursion into southern Lebanon for several months, with “operational plans” for an offensive into Lebanon already “approved and validated,” according to the IDF.
- Hezbollah has said it will keep fighting until Israeli forces fully withdraw from Gaza. But Israel is demanding that Hezbollah pull back its forces north of the Litani River—around 18 miles north of the Israeli border—in accordance with a 2006 United Nations Security Council resolution that sought to end the last major clash between the two sides.
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