Important Takeaways:
- The United States allowing its long-range tactical missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia for the first time would “inevitably lead to a serious escalation,” Kremlin figures warn after Washington D.C. appears to brief one of President Biden’s final acts in office will be to permit such attacks.
- Russia warned of dire consequences if Ukraine used long-range U.S.-made ATACMS missiles to strike strategic targets deep inside the Federation, but also confidence it would be able to foil the attacks in the first place. The responses came after claims were published in the beltway-interest newspapers favored for leaks by the U.S. intelligence community at the weekend that U.S. President Joe Biden would permit Ukraine to use the American Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles to strike targets within Russia.
- Until now, the system was permitted for Kyiv to strike Russian targets inside Ukraine, but deeper strikes inside Russia had been prohibited over fears using American weapons to directly attack the Russian Federation would lead to Russia treating the U.S. as a direct combatant in the conflict. Ukraine sees hitting Russia inside Russia as essential as it would theoretically allow them to destroy Russian weapons before they have a chance to join battle.
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Important Takeaways:
- Sweden is sending out some five million pamphlets to residents urging them to prepare for the possibility of war, with instructions on how to stockpile food and water amid growing fears of a conflict with Russia.
- Neighboring Finland has also launched a new preparedness website while Norwegians recently received booklets instructing them on how to manage on their own for a week in the event of war and other threats.
- Since the start of the war, Stockholm has repeatedly urged Swedes to prepare both mentally and logistically for the possibility of war, citing the serious security situation in its vicinity.
- The booklet ‘If Crisis or War Comes’, sent by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB), contains information about how to prepare for emergencies such as war, natural disasters, or cyber-attacks.
- It is an updated version of a pamphlet that Sweden has issued five times since World War II. However, underlining the seriousness of the potential threat, the book is twice the size of previous years.
- In one of the more worrying excerpts… ‘The global security situation increases the risks that nuclear weapons could be used. In the event of an attack with nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, take cover in the same way as in an air attack,’ it instructs readers
- ‘Shelter provides the best protection. After a couple of days, the radiation has decreased significantly.’
- Another message, which has been brought forward from the middle of the booklet in the updated version, reads: ‘If Sweden is attacked by another country, we will never give up. All information to the effect that resistance is to cease is false.’
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Important Takeaways:
- North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 soldiers to assist Russia in its war against Ukraine, according to assessments from G20 nations reported by Digi24.
- The move would deepen the alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, reflecting growing cooperation between the two nations.
- Sources familiar with these evaluations stated that such a deployment is not imminent. If it happens, the soldiers would likely be sent in phases, with troops rotating over time rather than being deployed all at once.
- This approach would help sustain combat effectiveness and minimize losses.
- The figure of 100,000 soldiers indicates that Putin may be preparing for a prolonged conflict. This potential reinforcement would complement military supplies already provided by North Korea, including artillery shells and ammunition.
- The growing military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang have raised concerns among international observers. Experts warn that deeper cooperation could further destabilize the region and extend the war in Ukraine.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier said that it was up to representatives of supplier countries to enter flight data into long-range Western missiles. Therefore, Moscow will see the Pentagon responsible for ATACMS strikes, the Russian President said.
- Indeed, the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot independently prepare strikes with the use of long-range Western missiles. Ukrainian military specialists would need to obtain data from Western reconnaissance satellites first. Ultimately, permission to use long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia would indicate NATO’s direct participation in the hostilities.
- This suggests that Ukraine may launch ATACMS missiles from positions located deep in Kiev-controlled territories. The US missiles will thus be able to hit Kursk, Voronezh, and parts of the Oryol region of Russia.
- Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, which Kyiv also received from the West, have a range of up to 300 kilometers. These missiles, in their current configuration, cannot reach Moscow or Tula. There are Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles with a range of up to 560 kilometers, but the West did not transfer modifications of those missiles to Kyiv.
- French publication Le Figaro wrote that Paris and London allowed Kyiv to use Anglo-French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG air-to-surface cruise missiles to strike Russia. At the same time, a source of RBC-Ukraine reported in August that London could give such permission only with the consent of France, Germany and the United States, since Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles use technologies from these countries.
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Important Takeaways:
- It was revealed last month that 12,000 North Korean troops had been sent to Ukraine to fight on behalf of Russia. Now, they are reported to have been deployed to Kursk as part of the Russian counter-offensive, while Pyongyang this week ratified a landmark new defense pact with Moscow.
- There were already indications that North Korea had provided significant materiel to the Russian war effort, including 8 million rounds of 122-millimeter and 152-millimeter ammunition and a number of ballistic missiles, according to figures from CSIS.
- But the deployment of soldiers – apparently to assist the 50,000 Russian troops – is a serious escalation.
- The implications could go further than that, however – including for the security of the Indo-Pacific, and particularly South Korea. Units that fight alongside Russian troops may get the opportunity to learn modern warfare techniques and tactics.
- … in a statement to Business Insider that “Russia is training North Korean soldiers to operate strike UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] and reconnaissance drones”.
- Such training in the use of drones, counter-drone techniques, GPS jamming and other electronic warfare technologies in such a front-line environment – combined with Russian technology transfers – may end up serving as a catalyst for the modernization of North Korea’s large but famously outdated army.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia launched a massive combined missile and drone attack on the Kyiv region Wednesday, the third on the country in three days, but Ukrainian air defenses intercepted most of the airborne ordnance with only one injury reported.
- President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a social media post that Russian missiles — including ballistic and cruise missiles targeting Kyiv — were shot down, along with about a dozen of about 90 drones involved in the attacks.
- Kyiv authorities said Wednesday’s two-hour-long attack, the first in more than two months, began with air-raid sirens sounding at around 6:30 a.m. local time as drones bore down on Kyiv Oblast and then cruise missiles, followed by a ballistic missile strike on Kyiv itself timed to coincide with the arrival of the cruise missiles.
- Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said the attack drones destroyed a house and seriously damaged a four-story apartment building with blazes breaking out on the upper levels.
- That came the day after Russia unleashed a record 145 drones Sunday — the largest attack of the war — against targets all across Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian Air Force, which claimed to have shot most of them down.
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Important Takeaways:
- Vladimir Putin has amassed 40,000 of his soldiers and 10,000 North Koreans as he plots to attack Kursk in just days, a report claims.
- The Kremlin leader is set to try and claw back the area of Russia which Ukraine seized back in August.
- Those soldiers are said to be wearing Russian uniforms and have been equipped by Moscow, but will fight in their own units.
- Putin’s army has also been training the North Koreans in infantry tactics, artillery fire, and trench clearing.
- Russia’s major battlefield assault looms as Donald Trump’s election win could also change the shape of peace talks.
- Ukraine is waiting with bated breath for the Republican’s next move following his historic election win.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday launched a massive exercise of the country’s nuclear forces featuring missile launches in a simulation of a retaliatory strike, as he continued to flex the country’s nuclear muscle amid spiraling tensions with the West over Ukraine.
- Speaking in a video call with military leaders, Putin said that the drills would simulate top officials’ action in using nuclear weapons and include launches of nuclear-capable ballistic and cruise missiles.
- Defense Minister Andrei Belousov reported that the exercise is intended to practice “strategic offensive forces launching a massive nuclear strike in response to a nuclear strike by the enemy.”
- Putin, who has repeatedly brandished the nuclear sword as he seeks to deter the West from ramping up support for Ukraine, emphasized on Tuesday that Russia’s nuclear arsenal remains a “reliable guarantor of the country’s sovereignty and security.”
- Putin noted that Moscow will continue to modernize its nuclear forces, deploying new missiles that have a higher precision, quicker launch times and increased capabilities to overcome missile defenses.
- As part of Tuesday’s drills, the military test-fired a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk launch pad at the Kura testing range on the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Defense Ministry said. The Novomoskovsk and Knyaz Oleg nuclear submarines test-fired ICBMs from the Barents Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk, while nuclear-capable Tu-95 strategic bombers carried out practice launches of long-range cruise missiles.
- The ministry said that all the missiles reached their designated targets.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia has been on a roll: the 2008 invasion of Georgia, the seizure of Crimea in 2014 and the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine surprised an overconfident Vladimir Putin, yet the war continues, with Russian casualties exceeding 500,000.
- From the time Russia invaded Ukraine, Mr. Putin has threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons. He recently announced a new nuclear doctrine: Aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear one, should be considered a joint attack.
- [meanwhile] China is building more missile silos: 120 in Gansu province and about 110 in Xinjiang province. China’s Rocket Force, established by President Xi Jinping, receives significant resources for the nuclear modernization program. China is not a member of New START and continues to refuse to discuss its nuclear program with the U.S.
- China continues to encircle and threaten Taiwan and claim sovereignty over the South China Sea despite a 2016 U.N. Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in favor of the Philippines that said China’s actions were unlawful. China continues to ignore the ruling.
- North Korea has about 50 nuclear weapons and enough fissile material to produce seven nuclear weapons per year. It also has a chemical and biological program, and in 2002, it was the only country that withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
- Since the failure of the February 2019 Hanoi Summit, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been in a race to build more nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to launch them as far as the U.S. with the Hwasong-17, a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple reentry vehicles, with a range of 15,000 kilometers (over 9,320 miles), capable of reaching the entire U.S.
- Iran is in a category by itself.
- Iran enriches uranium to 60%, enabling it to produce weapons-grade uranium in a few weeks. The International Atomic Energy Agency monitors Iran’s nuclear-related activities and has expressed concern about not getting the access its monitors require to certify that Iran is in compliance with IAEA safeguards.
- Moreover, Iran’s ballistic missile program is impressive — 12 types of medium-range and short-range ballistic missiles. It is only a matter of time before Iran has ICBMs capable of targeting Europe and the U.S. This is in addition to its support of its proxies Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran’s goal: to annihilate Israel.
- This is the axis of authoritarian states. The nations’ goal is to change the world order.
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Important Takeaways:
- North Korea has sent about 10,000 troops to Russia to train and fight in Ukraine within “the next several weeks,” the Pentagon said Monday, in a move that Western leaders say will intensify the almost three-year war and jolt relations in the Indo-Pacific region.
- Some of the North Korean soldiers have already moved closer to Ukraine, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said, and were believed to be heading for the Kursk border region, where Russia has been struggling to push back a Ukrainian incursion.
- Earlier Monday, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte NATO confirmed recent Ukrainian intelligence reports that some North Korean military units were already in the Kursk region.
- Adding thousands of North Korean soldiers to Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II will pile more pressure on Ukraine’s weary and overstretched army. It will also stoke geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the wider Indo-Pacific region, including Japan and Australia, Western officials say.
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