Tag Archives: Oil Prices

Oil prices slip as Hurricane Laura makes Gulf Coast landfall

By Ahmad Ghaddar

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Thursday as a massive hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico made landfall in the heart of the U.S. oil industry, forcing oil rigs and refineries to shut down.

Brent crude futures for October, which expire on Friday, fell 50 cents, or 1.1%, to $45.14 a barrel by 1359 GMT. The more active November Brent contract was down 55 cents, or 1.2%, at $45.61 per barrel.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 39 cents or 0.9% to $43 a barrel.

Hurricane Laura made landfall early on Thursday in southwestern Louisiana as a category 4 storm, one of the most powerful to hit the state, with forecasters warning it could push a wall of water 40 miles inland from the sea.

Oil producers on Tuesday had shut 1.56 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output, or 84% of the Gulf of Mexico’s production, evacuating 310 offshore facilities.

At the same time, refiners that convert nearly 2.33 million bpd of crude oil into fuel, and account for about 12% of U.S. processing, halted operations.

“Perhaps traders are waiting to see what the damage is but the limited impact so far may also just be a reflection of the current oil market dynamics. Temporary disruptions are easily covered,” OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said.

Oil prices also shrugged off U.S. crude inventory declines and signs that gasoline demand in the world’s biggest oil consumer were improving.

Crude oil stockpiles fell last week as exports soared the most in 18 months and refineries boosted production to the highest rate since March, Energy Information Administration data showed on Wednesday. Gasoline stocks also fell.

“It appears that the gasoline inventory reduction was due first and foremost to increased demand – gasoline demand rose to a six-month high of around 9.2 million bpd,” Commerzbank said.

(Additional reporting by Sonali Paul and Koustav Samanta; editing by Jason Neely)

Oil falls on fears of more COVID-19 cases

(Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Wednesday on fears about fresh outbreaks of COVID-19 but prices drew some support from stimulus measures and positive tests of a drug that could save some critically ill patients.

Brent crude was down 38 cents, or 0.9%, at $40.58 a barrel at 1335 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 56 cents, or 1.5%, to $37.82 a barrel.

The World Health Organization said it was moving to update its guidelines after results showed the corticosteroid medication dexamethasone cut death rates by about a third among the most severely ill COVID-19 patients.

Yet concerns persisted about the spread of the virus in some regions and the risk of second waves in places where the spread had started to slow.

“The pandemic is rapidly evolving and the outlook for oil demand will, therefore, remain plagued by a degree of uncertainty,” said Stephen Brennock of broker PVM.

To contain the spread of a new virus outbreak in Beijing, scores of flights were canceled and schools shut.

“We think the oil market is not currently pricing in a significant probability of either second waves of coronavirus cases in key consumers and the associated lockdowns, or anything less than a rapid return to economic business-as-usual,” Standard Chartered analysts said, pointing to a downside risk for prices in the medium term.

Weak economic activity is still weighing on demand for crude. Oil imports in Japan, the world’s fourth-biggest crude buyer, slumped in May to the lowest in almost three decades.

However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast a gradual recovery in oil demand and said record supply cuts by the group and other producers were already helping rebalance the market.

Business confidence at Asian companies sank to an 11-year low in the second quarter, a Thomson Reuters/INSEAD survey found, with two-thirds of firms polled seeing a worsening COVID-19 pandemic as the biggest risk over the next six months.

(Reporting by Bozorgmehr Sharafedin in London; Additional reporting Jane Chung in Seoul; Editing by Louise Heavens, Mark Potter and David Clarke)

Oil falls after U.S. crude stockpiles jump and gasoline demand slumps

By Laura Sanicola

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories rose last week by the most since 2016 while gasoline demand suffered its biggest weekly drop ever due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Crude inventories <USOILC=ECI> rose by 13.8 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. That was the biggest one-week rise since 2016, and analysts expect similar reports in coming weeks, as refineries curb output further and gasoline demand continues to decline.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude <CLc1> fell 29 cents, or 1.5%, to $20.19 a barrel by 1:30 p.m. ET (1730 GMT), after hitting a low at $19.90.

June Brent crude <LCOc1> fell $1.45, or 5.5%, to $24.90 a barrel. The global benchmark fell to $21.65 on Monday, its lowest since 2002, when the now-expired May contract was the front month.

The market has slumped on pledges of higher output from Saudi Arabia and Russia after a supply pact collapsed and the sharp fall in demand because of the coronavirus pandemic. Brent crude fell 66% in the first three months of 2020 – its biggest ever quarterly loss.

“Global inventories will be chock full by mid-May. I think the market can continue to decline further,” said Gene McGillian, a broker and oil analyst at Tradition Energy.

“There’s no signs of reproachment with producers and with further demand destruction we could get another $5 taken from the market.”

U.S. state governments have issued orders trying to halt the spread of the virus, and many residents are staying out of their cars. Gasoline demand fell by the most ever in one week, with products supplied, a proxy for demand, dropping by 2.2 million barrels per day to 6.7 million bpd. That augurs for more refining cutbacks down the road.

“Demand is a disaster,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. “That’s the whole problem here. It’s horrible.”

The bearish mood has been fueled by a rift within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members have been unable to agree to a technical meeting in April to discuss sliding prices.

An OPEC-led supply deal fell apart on March 6 when Russia refused to cut output further. Saudi Arabia has already begun to boost output, a Reuters OPEC survey showed on Tuesday, and is expected to pump more in April. [OPEC/O]

“It is very unlikely that OPEC, with or without Russia or the United States, will agree a sufficient volumetric solution to offset oil demand losses,” BNP Paribas analyst Harry Tchilinguirian said in a report on Tuesday.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he would join Saudi Arabia and Russia, if need be, for talks about the fall in oil prices.

(Additional reporting by Yuka Obayashi and Alex Lawler; Editing by Marguerita Choy and David Goodman)

Saudi Arabia floods markets with $25 oil as Russia fight escalates

By Olga Yagova

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia is flooding markets with oil at prices as low as $25 per barrel, specifically targeting big refiners of Russian oil in Europe and Asia, in an escalation of its fight with Moscow for market share, five trading sources said on Friday.

The sources, from oil majors and refiners which process crude in Europe, said Saudi state oil company Aramco told them it would supply all requested additional volumes in April.

Sources previously told Reuters Saudi Arabia is also seeking to replace Russian oil with Chinese and Indian buyers, although not all refiners received volumes they had asked for.

Tanker rates soared as Saudi Arabia provisionally chartered around 31 supertankers to take extra oil, including to the United States, where Russian oil is usually less in demand.

Oil prices have halved since the start of the year because demand has been hit by the coronavirus outbreak and after Russia and OPEC failed to reach a new deal on supply cuts.

Moscow refused to support new deeper cuts, saying the impact from the virus could be much worse than thought, and Riyadh retaliated by opening its taps and pledging to pump record volumes on to the market.

Russia has so far said it is not planning to come back to the negotiating table despite feeling the pressure from the extraordinary Saudi moves.

Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday Russia saw no grounds so far for returning to discussions with its OPEC+ partners and can increase its oil production by a modest 200,000 barrels per day in April.

By contrast, Saudi Arabia has pledged to raise output by 2.6 million bpd in April, including from stocks. Fellow Gulf producers like the United Arab Emirates has had to join in the battle for market share and has also announced production increases.

Saudi Arabia has made a deep cut to its official selling prices for oil. Arab Light and Arab Medium barrels were offered at selling price of $25-28 per barrel on CIF Rotterdam basis, traders said.

On Friday, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) also offered steep discounts for its Murban crude for April, announcing forward prices for the first time in its history. It previously set prices retroactively.

Russia’s main blend Urals has been offered slightly higher than $30 per barrel on CIF Rotterdam basis, according to Refinitiv Eikon data.

“We are happy with our allocation. The requests for April were confirmed. I look forward to May if prices remain that attractive”, a trader with a European oil company involved in the talks told Reuters.

European oil refiners including Total, BP, Eni and SOCAR have all had allocations for additional Saudi crude oil supplies in April confirmed, the sources said.

Saudi Aramco declined to comment. Total, BP, Eni and SOCAR did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.

On Thursday, sources told Reuters Saudi Arabia started focusing on boosting supplies to traditional buyers of Urals as it is trying to replace Russian oil in refiners’ feedstock around the world, from Europe to India.

Brent crude prices were on track for their biggest weekly fall since the 2008 financial crisis on Friday as investors fretted over the impact of the virus on demand and the Russian-Saudi price war. [O/R]

(Reporting by Olga Yagova; Additional reporting by Jonathan Saul, Rania El Gamal in Dubai and Devika Krishna Kumar in New York; Editing by Dmitry Zhdannikov/Jan Harvey/David Evans/Jane Merriman)

Oil falls as spectre of China virus looms over fuel demand

By Julia Payne

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices fell on Thursday on concern that the spread of a respiratory virus from China could lower fuel demand if it stunts economic growth in an echo of the SARS epidemic nearly 20 years ago.

Brent crude futures  were down 88 cents, or 1.39%, at $62.33 a barrel by 1225 GMT, having earlier touched their lowest since Dec. 4. They lost 2.1% in the previous session.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures  fell 89 cents, or 1.57%, to $55.85 a barrel after earlier falling to the lowest since Dec. 3. The contract declined 2.7% on Wednesday.

On Thursday, China put on lockdown two cities that were at the epicentre of a new coronavirus outbreak that has killed 17 people and infected nearly 600, as health authorities around the world scrambled to prevent a global pandemic.

The potential for a pandemic has stirred memories of the Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in 2002-03, which also started in China and dented economic growth and caused a slump in travel.

“Fundamentals are really being driven by virus fears. On a technical basis, there’s been a fight over the past six sessions but oil finally broke the 200-day moving average when it closed below that level yesterday,” said Olivier Jakob, of consultancy Petromatrix.

Cases have been detected as far as away as the United States and global stock markets were also down in part due to fears of the virus spreading further as millions of Chinese prepare to travel for the Lunar New Year.

Beijing said on Thursday that it had cancelled major public events, including two well-known Lunar New Year temple fairs, to curb the spread.

“We estimate a price shock of up to $5 (a barrel) if the crisis develops into a SARS-style epidemic based on historical oil price movements,” JPM Commodities Research said in a note.

The U.S. bank maintained its forecast for Brent to average $67 a barrel in the first quarter and $64.50 a barrel throughout 2020.

Amid all the demand concerns, however, supply remains plentiful.

U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week by 1.6 million barrels, against expectations of a drop, the American Petroleum Institute said late on Tuesday. [API/S]

Brazil also produced more than a billion barrels of oil in 2019, a first for the South American nation, the national oil regulator said on Wednesday.

China, meanwhile, released data on Thursday showing its gasoline exports rose nearly a third last year thanks to new refineries.

(Additional reporting by Aaron Sheldrick in Tokyo; Editing by David Goodman and Bernadette Baum)

Oil rises as Libya declares force majeure in oilfields

By Bozorgmehr Sharafedin

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices rose to their highest in more than week on Monday after two large crude production bases in Libya began shutting down amid a military blockade, risking reducing crude flows from the OPEC member to a trickle.

Brent crude <LCOc1> was up 59 cents, or 0.9%, at $65.44 by 1442 GMT, having earlier touched $66 a barrel, its highest since Jan. 9.

West Texas Intermediate <CLc1> was up 39 cents, or 0.7%, at $58.93 a barrel, after rising to $59.73, the highest since Jan. 10.

Two major oilfields in southwest Libya began shutting down on Sunday after forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar closed a pipeline, potentially cutting national output to a fraction of its normal level, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.

NOC declared force majeure on crude loadings from the Sharara and El Feel oilfields, according to a document seen by Reuters.

The closure, which follows a blockade of major eastern oil ports, risked taking almost all the country’s oil output offline.

However, the earlier rise in oil prices eased after some analysts and traders said supply disruptions in Libya will be short-lived and could be offset by other producers, limiting the impact on global markets.

“The oil market remains well supplied with ample stocks and a healthy spare capacity cushion. In other words, the bullish price impact may prove to be fleeting,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, added: “We expect the current scale of outages to be fairly short-lived… as there is limited upside for Haftar to slow the country’s oil revenues to a trickle.”

“The current closures are clearly a power play aimed at boosting Haftar’s leverage amid international efforts to broker peace in the country.”

Foreign powers agreed at a summit in Berlin on Sunday to shore up a shaky truce in Libya, which has been in turmoil since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

If Libyan exports are halted for any sustained period, storage tanks will fill within days and production will slow to 72,000 barrels per day (bpd), an NOC spokesman said. Libya has been producing around 1.2 million bpd recently.

“A prolonged disruption from Libya would be enough to swing the global oil market from surplus to deficit in (the first quarter of 2020),” said ING analyst Warren Patterson.

Meanwhile in Iraq, another major oil producer, two police officers and two protesters were killed as anti-government unrest resumed after a lull of several weeks.

However, production in southern oilfields was unaffected by the unrest, officials said.

Market activity was thin on Monday on the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday in the United States.

(Reporting by Bozorgmehr Sharafedin in London, Additioanl reporting by Aaron Sheldrick in Tokyo; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, Louise Heavens and Jan Harvey)

Oil back in positive territory ahead of U.S.-China trade deal

By Ron Bousso

LONDON (Reuters) – Global oil benchmark Brent crude rose to more than $64.50, recovering from four days of declines on easing Middle East tensions, as the United States and China prepared to sign a preliminary trade deal.

Brent crude gained 43 cents, or 0.7%, to $64.63 a barrel by 1507 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 11 cents, or 0.2%, to $58.20 a barrel.

The outlook for oil demand was supported by the expected signing of a Phase 1 U.S.-China trade deal on Wednesday, marking a major step in ending a dispute that has cut global growth and dented demand for oil.

China has pledged to buy more than $50 billion in energy supplies from the United States over the next two years, according to a source briefed on the trade deal.

The trade war between the world’s two biggest energy consumers had a tangible impact on global oil demand growth last year, said Tamas Varga, an analyst at broker PVM. Varga pointed to 2019 demand growth of 890,000 barrels per day (bpd), compared with initial forecasts of 1.5 million bpd.

“This year, however, the pace is expected to pick up again and average 1.25 million bpd … In the event of a trade deal upward revisions can be anticipated,” Varga said.

Regardless of trade wars, China’s crude oil imports in 2019 surged 9.5% from the previous year, setting a record for a 17th straight year as demand growth from new refineries propelled purchases by the world’s top importer, data showed.

However, gains were limited by easing concern over possible supply disruptions as a result of tensions in the Middle East.

The recent declines came as investors unwound bullish positions built after the killing of a senior Iranian general in a U.S. air strike on Jan. 2, which sent oil prices to a four-month high, said Harry Tchilinguirian, global oil strategist at BNP Paribas in London.

“As geopolitical tensions take a back seat for now, we may see more of the same in the short term,” Tchilinguirian told the Reuters Global Oil Forum.

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said his country will work for oil market stability at a time of heightened U.S.-Iranian tension.

He also said it was too early to talk about whether the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, would continue with production curbs that are due to expire in March.

Separately, U.S. crude oil inventories were expected to have fallen last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday.

The poll was conducted ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, and the Energy Information Administration, an agency of the U.S. Department of Energy.

(Additional reporting By Jessica Jaganathan; Editing by Louise Heavens and David Goodman)

Oil, safe havens surge as U.S. strikes kill Iranian commander

By Herbert Lash and Marc Jones

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices surged as much as $3 a barrel as gold, the yen and safe-haven bonds all rallied on Friday after the U.S. killing of Iran’s top military commander in an air strike in Iraq ratcheted up tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Traders were spooked after the death of Major General Qassem Soleimani, head of the elite Quds Force who was also one of Iran’s most influential figures, and by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s vow of revenge.

Mideast-focused oil markets saw the most dramatic moves, with Brent oil futures leaping as much 4.5% to $69.20 a barrel. That was the highest since the attacks on Saudi crude facilities in September, though the impact hit almost every asset class.

Europe’s broad STOXX 600 index fell as much as 1% and shares on Wall Street almost the same as New Year optimism, which had pushed equity markets to new records, evaporated.

The yen rose half a percent against the dollar to a two-month high, the Swiss franc hit its highest against the euro since September and gold prices  climbed to a four-month peak, racing past the key $1,550 an ounce level.

“Geopolitics has come back to the table, and this is something that could have major cross-asset implications,” said Salman Ahmed, Lombard Odier’s chief investment strategist.

“What is critical is how it pans out in the next few days,” Ahmed said. “Whether it turns into a theme depends on Iran’s reaction and then the U.S. response.”

Iran promised harsh revenge. Soleimani’s Quds Force and its paramilitary proxies, ranging from Lebanon’s Hizbollah to the PMF in Iraq, have ample means to mount a response.

In September, U.S. officials blamed Iran for attacking the oil installations of Saudi Aramco, the state energy giant and the world’s largest oil exporter. Iran has denied responsibility for the strikes and accused Washington of war-mongering.

The Trump administration then did not respond, beyond heated rhetoric and threats, and markets settled down within a week after Brent surged 14.6%, its biggest one-day percentage gain since at least 1988.

The U.S. government and others on Friday urged their citizens in the region either to return home or to stay away from potential targets and public gatherings.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a round of TV interviews that the United States remained committed to de-escalation with Iran but that it had needed to defend itself.

“He (Soleimani) was actively plotting in the region to take actions – a big action as he described it – that would have put dozens if not hundreds of American lives at risk. We know it was imminent,” Pompeo told CNN.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe shed 0.43%, while its emerging markets index lost 0.32%.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average  fell 210.81 points, or 0.73%, to 28,657.99. The S&P 500  lost 18.86 points, or 0.58%, to 3,238.99 and the Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> dropped 58.26 points, or 0.64%, to 9,033.93.

The global gauge and Wall Street indices set record closing highs on Thursday, extending the year-end rally in equities.

Brent  hit a peak of $69.50 a barrel, its highest since mid-September, though it later traded up $2.40 to $68.65.

West Texas Intermediate  crude  rose $2.20 to $63.38 a barrel, after earlier spiking to $64.09 a barrel, its highest since April 2019.

SCRAMBLE TO SAFETY

Yields on German Bunds and U.S. Treasuries – the world’s benchmark government bonds that are typically seen as the safest assets – fell sharply.

 

The 10-year Bund  yield fell 7 basis points to a two-week low of -0.299%, while Bund futures  were up 0.51 percent, at 172.13 euros.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose 23/32 in price to yield 1.802%, from 1.882% late on Monday.

The dollar index fell 0.08%, with the euro up 0.06% to $1.1177. The Japanese yen  strengthened 0.59% versus the greenback at 107.94 per dollar.

The focus on geopolitics meant markets paid little attention to stronger-than-expected data from France, where inflation rose 1.6% year-on-year in December, beating analysts’ expectations for a 1.4% rise.

German inflation figures were also higher, although unemployment in Europe’s largest economy rose more than expected.

The U.S. manufacturing sector contracted in December by the most in more than a decade, with order volumes crashing to near an 11-year low and factory employment falling for a fifth straight month, the Institute for Supply Management said.

Investors also were looking forward to the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Dec. 10-11 meeting due at 2 p.m. (1900 GMT).

(Reporting by Herbert Lash, additional reporting by Sujata Rao and Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Diptendu Lahiri in Bengaluru; Editing by Dan Grebler)

Drones, sanctions, contamination: supply surprises leave oil unfazed

By Ahmad Ghaddar and Noah Browning

LONDON (Reuters) – They should have started a bull run, but supply shocks that have rocked the oil industry this year have failed to deliver a sustained rise in crude prices.

Drone attacks crippled Saudi Aramco’s oil plants, U.S. oil sanctions knocked out exports from Iran and Venezuela, and massive contamination tainted Russian oil flows.

Yet, instead of sky-high prices, the market has been kept in check by a flood of oil from the U.S. fracking boom and worries about a global recession weighing on the demand outlook.

And there is unlikely to be a spike anytime soon, analysts and data indicate because high-tech industry understands better than ever just how replete their market is with oil.

“Between fears of peak oil demand, unlimited shale growth, a looming global recession and the possibility that millions of barrels of OPEC barrels (sanctioned or otherwise) could return to the market fairly quickly, there is no faith in the future,” said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspect.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which includes Iran, Venezuela and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia, has continued to rein in supply this year but the group’s efforts have not delivered the hoped-for price surge.

Oil futures markets indicate that supply outages have not dealt a boost to prices as investors see the unexpected shocks to oil output will not massively dent overall supply.

SAUDI BOUNCE-BACK

The Sept. 14 attacks on Aramco sites knocked out around 5.7 million bpd of capacity from the world’s biggest oil exporter, nearly 6% of global oil supplies.

Despite the unprecedented damage, Saudi Arabia has swiftly restored its production capacity to 11.3 million barrels per day, just shy of its regular output, sources briefed on Aramco’s operations told Reuters.

Brent oil prices surged 15% in the wake of the attacks but have since lost most of their gains and are trading at around $62 a barrel.

 

While U.S. oil output continues to surge along with the productivity of existing wells, the increasingly sparse number of operating wells could eventually drag on output and provide a boost to prices.

“We think the outlook for U.S. supply growth is far too optimistic,” Mark Hume, portfolio manager at investment giant BlackRock’s Energy and Resources Income Trust.

“There’s a real chance of U.S. growth going to the downside and I think balances will be tighter than one might anticipate right now,” he added.

DATA TRANSPARENCY

Another aspect that has softened the impact of supply shocks on oil prices is the wide availability of data which gives investors a much clearer view on the operations of the market.

BP chief executive Bob Dudley said this week that the reaction to the Saudi attacks was “sensible”.

“It says something about the market – there’s instantaneous data on storage levels which didn’t exist in the past,” he said.

Technology firms increasingly offer real-time data pinpointing storage levels in oil tanks, detecting if a refinery unit is operating using heat cameras and tracking ships.

“The data availability is a bit of a game-changer,” said Norbert Ruecker, head of economics at Swiss bank Julius Baer. “This speeds up what financial markets are all about.”

(Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar and Noah Browning; Additional reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov and Ron Bousso in London and Jessica Resnick-Ault in New York; Editing by Edmund Blair)

Trump says he does not want war after attack on Saudi oil facilities

By Steve Holland and Rania El Gamal

WASHINGTON/DUBAI (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday it looked like Iran was behind attacks on oil plants in Saudi Arabia but stressed he did not want to go to war, as the attacks sent oil prices soaring and raised fears of a new Middle East conflict.

Iran has rejected U.S. charges it was behind the strikes on Saturday that damaged the world’s biggest crude-processing plant and triggered the largest jump in crude prices in decades.

Relations between the United States and Iran have deteriorated since Trump pulled out of the Iran nuclear accord last year and reimposed sanctions over Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic programs. Washington also wants to pressure Tehran to end its support of regional proxy forces, including in Yemen where Saudi forces have been fighting Iran-backed Houthis for four years.

The United States was still investigating if Iran was behind the Saudi strikes, Trump said, but “it’s certainly looking that way at this moment”.

Trump, who has spent much of his presidency trying to disentangle the United States from wars he inherited, made clear, however, he was not going to rush into a new conflict on behalf of Saudi Arabia.

“I’m somebody that would like not to have war,” Trump said.

Several U.S. Cabinet members, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Energy Secretary Rick Perry, have blamed Tehran for the strikes. Pompeo and others will travel to Saudi Arabia soon, Trump said.

A day after saying the United States was “locked and loaded” to respond to the incident, Trump said on Monday there was “no rush” to do so.

“We have a lot of options but I’m not looking at options right now. We want to find definitively who did this,” he said.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said the strikes were carried out by “Yemeni people” retaliating for attacks by a Saudi-led military coalition in a war with the Houthi movement.

“Yemeni people are exercising their legitimate right of defense,” Rouhani told reporters during a visit to Ankara.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi called the allegations “unacceptable and entirely baseless.”

The attacks cut 5% of world crude oil production.

Oil prices surged by as much as 19% after the incidents, the biggest intraday jump since the 1990-91 Gulf crisis over Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. Prices retreated from their peak after Trump said he would release U.S. emergency supplies and producers said there were enough stocks globally to make up for the shortfall.

Japan said it will consider coordinated release of its oil reserves and other measures if needed to ensure sufficient supplies in the wake of the attacks.

Crude prices were down around 1% in Asian trade on Tuesday.

“The question is how long it takes for the supply to get back online,” said Esty Dwek, head of global market strategy at Natixis Investment Managers.

“However, the (geopolitical) risk premium … which has been basically ignored by markets in favor of growth worries in recent months, is likely to be priced in going forward,” she said.

SAUDI SUSPICIONS

Saudi Arabia said the attacks were carried out with Iranian weapons and urged U.N. experts to help investigate the raid.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Iranian threats were not only directed against the kingdom but against the Middle East and the world.

While the prince did not directly accuse Tehran, a Foreign Ministry statement reported him as calling on the international community to condemn whoever was behind the strike.

“The kingdom is capable of defending its land and people and responding forcefully to those attacks,” the statement added.

Saudi Arabia and Iran have been enemies for decades and are fighting a number of proxy wars.

Trump said he had not made commitments to protect the Saudis.

“No, I haven’t promised Saudis that. We have to sit down with the Saudis and work something out,” he said. “That was an attack on Saudi Arabia, and that wasn’t an attack on us. But we would certainly help them.”

Two sources briefed on state oil company Saudi Aramco’s operations told Reuters it might take months for Saudi oil production to return to normal. Earlier estimates had suggested it could take weeks.

Saudi Arabia said it would be able to meet oil customers’ demand from its ample storage, although some deliveries had been disrupted. At least 11 supertankers were waiting to load oil cargoes from Saudi ports, ship tracking data showed on Monday.

RISING TENSIONS

Tension in the oil-producing Gulf region has dramatically escalated this year after Trump imposed severe U.S. sanctions on Iran aimed at halting its oil exports altogether.

For months, Iranian officials have issued veiled threats, saying that if Tehran is blocked from exporting oil, other countries will not be able to do so either. But Iran has denied a role in specific attacks, including bombings of tankers in the Gulf and previous strikes claimed by the Houthis.

Trump has said the goal from his “maximum pressure” approach is to force Iran to negotiate a tougher agreement and has left open the possibility of talks with Rouhani at an upcoming U.N. meeting. Iran says there can be no talks until Washington lifts sanctions.

U.N. Yemen envoy Martin Griffiths told the U.N. Security Council on Monday it was “not entirely clear” who was behind the strike but he said it had increased the chances of a regional conflict.

But the U.S. ambassador to the world body, Kelly Craft, said emerging information on the attacks “indicates that responsibility lies with Iran” and there is no evidence it came from Yemen.

Iran’s Yemeni allies have promised more strikes to come. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said the group carried out Saturday’s predawn attack with drones, including some powered by jet engines.

“We assure the Saudi regime that our long arm can reach any place we choose and at the time of our choosing,” Sarea tweeted. “We warn companies and foreigners against being near the plants that we struck because they are still in our sights.”

U.S. officials say they believe the attacks came from the opposite direction, possibly from Iran itself rather than Yemen, and may have involved cruise missiles. Wherever the attacks were launched, however, they believe Iran is to blame.

The attacks have raised questions about how Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s top spenders on weaponry, much of it supplied by U.S. companies, was unable to protect oil plants from attack.

Sensing a commercial opening, President Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to help Saudi Arabia by providing Russian-made air defense systems to protect Saudi infrastructure.

Russia and China said it was wrong to jump to conclusions about who was to blame for the attack on Saudi Arabia.

(Reporting by Steve Holland in Washington and Rania El Gamal in Dubai; Writing by William Maclean, Mike Collett-White and Doina Chiacu; Editing by Alistair Bell, Peter Cooney & Simon Cameron-Moore)