Tag Archives: Oil Prices

Oil prices could induce a summer recession

IDF-Tanker

Important Takeaways:

  • Oil prices a ‘chief concern’ for markets after Iran attack on Israel
  • Colas estimated that a spike in oil prices pushing U.S. gasoline to $5.40 a gallon this summer would make a recession later in 2024 “a genuine possibility.” U.S. gas prices averaged $3.634 a gallon at the pump on Monday, according to AAA, at last check.
  • “Crude prices are our chief concern, but we are a long way” from $125 a barrel — a level of West Texas Intermediate oil that “would almost certainly cause a recession if sustained,” said Colas. “Gasoline prices are the transmission mechanism between Mideast conflict and the US economy: when pump prices increase quickly, consumers must cut back on other spending.”

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Emergency Oil Reserve at 40 year low

Oil-Reserve-Shortage

Important Takeaways:

  • America’s emergency oil reserve is at a 40-year low — and that could inflate oil prices, Goldman Sachs says
  • America’s emergency oil stockpile has plunged to 40-year lows. The shrinking Strategic Petroleum Reserve is limiting Washington’s ability to shield consumers from the fallout of Saudi Arabia’s aggressive supply cuts, according to Goldman Sachs.
  • “At this point, US energy policy has fewer bullets left. It has less levers left in its policy toolkit,” Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs, told CNN in a phone interview.
  • That’s one reason Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to stay high, averaging $100 a barrel this time next year. Triple-digit oil would boost already-high prices at the pump, worsening inflation and potentially influencing the 2024 race for the White House.
  • To cushion the blow from the war in Ukraine, the Biden administration has released vast amounts of oil from the SPR, the underground series of storage tanks along the Gulf Coast that contains emergency oil.
  • Industry veterans say that strategy helped mitigate the hit to consumers as gasoline prices plunged after hitting $5.02 a gallon in June 2022.

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Oil Prices Jump Again. Better Keep Your Tanks Full

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Oil jumps to highest since 2011 as OPEC holds output steady despite Russia’s war on Ukraine
  • U.S. oil climbed to the highest level in more than a decade in Wednesday trade, with global benchmark Brent topping $113 per barrel after OPEC and its oil-producing allies, which includes Russia, decided to hold production steady.
  • West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, jumped more than 8% to trade at $112.51 per barrel, the highest level since May 2011.
  • “Brent crude could surge to the $120 level if the oil market starts to think it is likely that sanctions will be placed on Russian energy.”

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Oil falls as storm-hit U.S. supply trickles back into market

By Stephanie Kelly

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Friday as energy companies in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico restarted production after back-to-back hurricanes in the region shut output.

Both Brent and U.S. crude benchmarks were on track for weekly gains of 3.2% and 3.3%, respectively, owing to the recent supply tightness due to the hurricane outages.

Brent crude futures fell 42 cents to $75.25 a barrel by 12:48 p.m. EDT (1648 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 60 cents to $72.01 a barrel.

Friday’s slump came after five straight sessions of rises for Brent. On Wednesday, Brent hit its highest since late July, and U.S. crude hit its highest since early August.

“The reason oil prices reached such highs in the last few days was clearly supply disruptions and drawdowns in inventories, so now that U.S. oil production is returning, oil as expected trades lower,” said Nishant Bhushan, Rystad Energy’s oil markets analyst.

Gulf Coast crude oil exports are flowing again after hurricanes Nicholas and Ida took out 26 million barrels of offshore production. Restarts continued with about 28% of U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude output offline, Reuters reported on Thursday.

The dollar climbed to a multi-week high on Friday, making dollar-denominated crude more expensive for those using other currencies. The dollar got a boost from better-than-expected U.S. retail sales data on Thursday.

U.S. consumer sentiment steadied in early September after plunging the month before to its lowest level in nearly a decade, but consumers remain worried about inflation, a survey showed on Friday.

(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly in New York; additional reporting by Julia Payne in London, Sonali Paul in Melbourne and Roslan Khasawneh in Singapore; Editing by David Goodman, Louise Heavens and David Gregorio)

Oil firms as demand hopes outweigh rise of COVID-19 variant

By Noah Browning

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Tuesday as broad hopes for a demand recovery persisted despite new outbreaks of the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus prompting fresh mobility curbs worldwide.

Brent crude futures were up 50 cents, or 0.7%, at $75.18 a barrel by 1400 GMT, having slumped by 2% on Monday.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 55 cents, or 0.8%, to $73.46 after a 1.5% retreat on Monday.

“From a global perspective, there are seemingly growing concerns over the increase in the COVID-19 Delta variant,” said StoneX analyst Kevin Solomon.

“The market has grown relatively immune to COVID-19 developments, but if lockdowns occur in larger demand centers in Asia, we may see the market’s nonchalance abate.”

Spain and Portugal, favorite summer holiday destinations for Europeans, imposed new restrictions on unvaccinated Britons on Monday, while Australians also faced tighter curbs owing to flare-ups of the virus across the country.

However, the market still expects the rollout of vaccination programs to brighten the demand outlook, analysts said.

“The narrative of the past few months has not changed: the war against the virus is being gradually won, the global economy and oil demand are recovering,” said PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga.

“Oil supply is being effectively managed. Therefore dips are probably viewed by ardent bulls as attractive buying opportunities.”

The virus flare-up comes as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and allies, together known as OPEC+, are set to meet on July 1 to discuss easing their supply curbs.

OPEC’s demand forecasts show that in the fourth quarter global oil supply will fall short of demand by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), giving the producers some room to agree to add output.

Analysts expect OPEC+ to step up supply in August because the market has tightened on strong growth in fuel demand in the United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers.

Investors will be looking to the latest U.S. inventory data for cues on the demand outlook. Crude stocks are likely to have extended their fall for a sixth straight week while gasoline stocks are also expected to have declined, a preliminary Reuters poll showed.

(Additional reporting by Sonali Paul; Editing by David Evans and David Goodman)

India demand fears, weak Japan crude imports knock oil prices 2%

By Laila Kearney

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices were down 2% on Friday, falling from six-week highs as investors unloaded positions after weak Japanese crude import data and on worries about fuel demand in India, where COVID-19 infections have soared.

U.S. crude and global benchmark Brent were set for their biggest daily drops in about three weeks, but were still on track for monthly gains of about 8% and 6%, respectively. Fuel demand worldwide is mixed but consumption is rising in the United States and China.

Brent crude fell by $1.30, or 1.9%, at $67.26 a barrel by 12:48 p.m. EDT (1648 GMT), the last day of trading for the front-month June contract. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for June was at $63.67 a barrel, down $1.34, or 2.1%.

“The tug of war between summer demand growth prospects and worsening COVID infections is still in full swing,” JBC Energy analysts wrote on Friday.

India, the world’s third largest oil consumer, is in deep crisis, with hospitals and morgues overwhelmed, as the number of COVID-19 cases topped 18 million on Thursday.

Japan’s – another major crude oil importer – imports fell 25% in March from a year earlier to 2.34 million barrels per day, according to government figures. However, the country’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace since early 2018.

“There are still several major countries struggling mightily with the COVID-19 and of course there is a humanitarian crisis developing in India,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. “These are two big sources of demand that are taking a hit.”

OPEC oil output rose in April due to more supply from Iran, countering the cartel’s pact with allies to reduce supply.

A Reuters survey forecast that Brent would average $64.17 in 2021, up from last month’s consensus of $63.12 per barrel and the $62.3 average for the benchmark so far this year.

(Additional reporting by Shadia Nasralla and Florence Tan; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and David Gregorio)

Oil steadies as dollar slumps but pandemic surge weighs

By Devika Krishna Kumar

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices were little changed on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar but pressured by concerns about the impact on demand from rising coronavirus cases in India and other countries.

Brent crude was down 4 cents, at $66.73 a barrel by 11:06 AM ET (1506 GMT), after rising 6% last week. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. oil was up 3 cents at $63.16 a barrel, having gained 6.4% last week.

The U.S. dollar traded at a six-week low versus major peers on Monday, with Treasury yields hovering near their weakest in five weeks.

With oil priced in dollars, a softer greenback could spur demand from holders of other currencies.

“If today’s broad-based weakness in the US dollar is sustained, the energy complex should be able to maintain the bulk of last week’s gains,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates.

“The primary hazard to continued oil price strength is the possible pre-emergence of Covid-19 case counts on a broad scale”

India reported a record rise in infections, which lifted overall cases to just over 15 million, making the country the second-worst affected after the United States, which has reported more than 31 million infections.

Deaths from COVID-19 in India also rose by a record 1,619 to nearly 180,000.

The capital region of Delhi ordered a six-day lockdown, joining around 13 other states across India that have decided to impose restrictions, curfews or lockdowns in their cities.

“This new wave of measures, while so far likely to be less stringent than what we saw in March 2020, when gasoline and gasoil/diesel demand in the country fell by close to 60%, is nevertheless set to weigh on transportation fuel consumption,” consultancy JBC said.

Hong Kong will suspend flights from India, Pakistan and the Philippines from April 20 due to imported coronavirus infections, authorities said on Sunday.

Lending some support, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports fell in February to their lowest in eight months, the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) said on Monday, as the world’s biggest oil exporter voluntarily capped output to support oil prices.

JP Morgan now expects Brent prices to break the $70 mark by May, compared with September in its previous forecast, the bank said in a recent note. It still expects them to finish the year at a similar level of about $74.

(Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar in London, Aaron Sheldrick in Tokyo; Editing by Jan Harvey, Kirsten Donovan, Alexander Smith and David Gregorio)

Oil prices rise on economic outlook, drawdown in fuel stocks

By Julia Payne

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Thursday on a weaker dollar as fears of rising U.S. inflation eased while a steep fall in U.S. fuel stocks meant a crude glut would be short-lived as refiners restart in Texas.

Brent crude oil futures for May rose 79 cents, or 1.16%, to $68.69 a barrel by 1430 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April was up 62 cents, or 0.96%, at $65.06. Both contracts had risen by more than $1 a barrel in earlier trade.

“Fears of inflation are receding as the February U.S. CPI was at 1.7%. Consequently, bond yields fell and equities stabilized with the Dow hitting an all-time high. The dollar, therefore, is weakening, which helps oil,” Tamas Varga, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said.

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as concern about a strong pick-up in inflation eased and focus turned to an auction of 30-year government debt. The dollar is at its lowest level in a week.

Varga added that the massive draw on U.S. gasoline stocks has also helped to boost oil prices.

“(It) implies that refiners’ crude intake will keep growing, reversing the recent stock builds we have seen in the last three weeks due to Winter Storm Uri.”

U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 11.9 million barrels in the week to March 5 to 231.6 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said, compared with expectations for a 3.5 million-barrel drop.​

Crude inventories, however, rose by 13.8 million barrels in the week to March 5 to 498.4 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for an 816,000-barrel rise, as the nation’s oil industry continued to feel the effects of a winter storm mid-February that stalled refining and forced production shut-ins in Texas.

Globally, stocks also remain ample with crude oil in storage at major land and sea hubs rising last week, according to analysts and ship trackers.

As the pace of inoculations picks up, several states such as North Carolina and California have moved to relax COVID-19 restrictions.

Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives gave final approval on Wednesday to one of the largest economic stimulus measures in American history, a sweeping $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill that gives President Joe Biden his first major victory in office.

(Reporting by Julia Payne and Jessica Jaganathan; editing by Jason Neely and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

Oil jumps almost 4% as output slow to recover from Texas storms

By Laila Kearney

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices rose nearly 4% on Monday, boosted by the expected slow return of U.S. crude output after last week’s deep freeze in Texas shut in production.

U.S. producers shut anywhere from 2 million to 4 million barrels per day of oil output due to cold weather in Texas and other oil producing states, and the unusually cold conditions may have damaged installations that could keep output offline longer than expected.

Brent crude settled at $65.24 a barrel, rising $2.33, or 3.7%, while U.S. oil settled at $61.49 a barrel, jumping $2.25, or 3.8%. The U.S. benchmark crude contract for March delivery expires on Monday, and the more widely-traded April contract was up $2.44, or 4.1%, at 61.70 a barrel.

Shale oil producers in the region could take at least two weeks to fully restart normal output, sources said, as damage assessments and power disruptions slow their recovery.

“The significant loss of both crude and gasoline production suggests more upside and likelihood of new highs possibly within a one-week time frame,” said Jim Ritterbusch of consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates. But he cautioned that with limited refining capacity, price could under pressure if refiners take weeks to return to normal.

“The market is behaving as if the refiners are going to come online quicker than the headlines would lead you to believe,” said Yawger. Gasoline crackspreads, an indicator of refiners’ margins have dropped by 5%.

For the first time since November, U.S. drilling companies cut the number of oil rigs operating due to the cold and snow enveloping Texas, New Mexico and other energy-producing centers, signaling even tighter supplies ahead.

OPEC+ oil producers are set to meet on March 4, with sources saying the group is likely to ease curbs on supply after April given a recovery in prices, although any increase in output will likely be modest given lingering uncertainty over the pandemic.

“Saudi Arabia is eager to pursue yet higher prices in order to cover its social break-even expenses at around $80 a barrel while Russia is strongly focused on unwinding current cuts and getting back to normal production,” said SEB chief commodity analyst Bjarne Schieldrop.

(Additional reporting by Noah Browning and Aaron Sheldrick in London and Jessica Resnick-Ault in New York; Editing by Jason Neely and Emelia Sithole-Matarise, David Gregorio and Jane Merriman)

Oil extends losses as Texas prepares to ramp up output after freeze

By Devika Krishna Kumar

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil prices fell for a second day on Friday, retreating further from recent highs as Texas energy companies began preparations to restart oil and gas fields shuttered by freezing weather and power outages.

Brent crude futures were down 66 cents, or 1%, at $63.27 a barrel by 12:27 p.m. (1727 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 99 cents, or 1.6%, to $59.53.

For the week, Brent was on track for a 1.3% gain while WTI was largely flat.

This week, both benchmarks had climbed to the highest in more than a year.

“Price pullback thus far appears corrective and is slight within the context of this month’s major upside price acceleration,” said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates.

Unusually cold weather in Texas and the Plains states curtailed up to 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude production and 21 billion cubic feet of natural gas, analysts estimated.

Texas refiners halted about a fifth of the nation’s oil processing amid power outages and severe cold.

Companies were expected to prepare for production restarts on Friday as electric power and water services slowly resume, sources said.

“While much of the selling relates to a gradual resumption of power in the Gulf coast region ahead of a significant temperature warmup, the magnitude of this week’s loss of supply may require further discounting given much uncertainty regarding the extent and possible duration of lost output,” Ritterbusch said.

Oil prices fell despite a surprise drop in U.S. crude stockpiles last week, before the big freeze hit. Inventories fell 7.3 million barrels to 461.8 million barrels, their lowest since March, the Energy Information Administration reported on Thursday.

“Vaccines and the impressive rollouts we’ve seen have delivered strong gains, as have the efforts of OPEC+ – Saudi Arabia, in particular – and the big freeze in Texas, which gave oil prices one final kick this week,” Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA said.

“With so many bullish factors now priced in, it seems we’re seeing some of these positions being unwound.”

The United States on Thursday said it was ready to talk to Iran about returning to a 2015 agreement that aimed to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Still, analysts did not expect near-term reversal of sanctions on Iran that were imposed by the previous U.S. administration.

“This breakthrough increases the probability that we may see Iran returning to the oil market soon, although there is much to be discussed and a new deal will not be a carbon-copy of the 2015 nuclear deal,” said StoneX analyst Kevin Solomon.

(Additional reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar in London and Roslan Khasawneh in Singapore and Sonali Paul in Melbourne; Editing by Marguerita Choy and David Gregorio)