U.S. plan to arm Kurdish militia casts shadow over Trump-Erdogan talks

FILE PHOTO: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends the Roundtable Summit Phase One Sessions of Belt and Road Forum at the International Conference Center in Yanqi Lake on May 15, 2017 in Beijing, China REUTERS/Lintao Zhang/Pool/File Photo *** Local Caption *** Aung San Suu Kyi

By Orhan Coskun and Daren Butler

ANKARA (Reuters) – Angered by a U.S. decision to arm Kurdish YPG fighters in Syria, Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan heads to Washington this week for talks with Donald Trump seeking either to change the president’s mind or to “sort things out ourselves”.

Trump’s approval of plans to supply the YPG as it advances toward the Islamic State stronghold of Raqqa, just days before his first meeting with Erdogan, has cast a shadow over Tuesday’s planned talks between the two NATO allies.

Ankara, a crucial partner in the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State, considers the YPG an extension of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency in Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast for three decades and is designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the European Union and United States.

Washington sees the YPG as distinct from the PKK and as a valuable partner in the fight against Islamic State.

“If we are strategic allies we must take decisions as an alliance. If the alliance is to be overshadowed we’ll have to sort things out for ourselves,” Erdogan told reporters on Sunday, according to the pro-government Sabah newspaper.

Erdogan was speaking during a visit to China, ahead of his trip to Washington for his first meeting with Trump.

Turkey had hoped that Trump’s inauguration would mark a new chapter in ties with Washington after long-running tensions with the Obama administration over Syria policy and Ankara’s demands for the extradition of U.S.-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen.

Erdogan blames Gulen supporters for a failed coup attempt last July and has conducted a large-scale crackdown on them, drawing criticism from Washington. Gulen, who has denied involvement in the coup, remains in the United States.

Erdogan welcomed Trump’s election victory last November and said he hoped it would lead to “beneficial steps” in the Middle East. When Erdogan narrowly won sweeping new powers in an April referendum, Trump rang to congratulate him, unlike European politicians who expressed reservations about the vote.

DYNAMITE

But hopes for rapprochement took a hit last week. The decision to arm the YPG was “tantamount to placing dynamite under Turkey-USA relations”, a senior Turkish official said.

“Just as it was being said that relations (which were) seriously harmed during the Obama period are being repaired, Turkey moving apart from one of its biggest allies would be an extremely bad sign,” the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters.

Erdogan portrays U.S. support for the Kurdish militia – instead of Syrian Arab rebels – as a leftover policy from the Obama administration, which he said had wrongly accused Turkey of doing too little in the fight against Islamic State.

“It is a slander of the Obama administration. Unfortunately now they have left the Syria and Iraq problem in Trump’s lap,” Erdogan said in China.

Erdogan will tell Trump that backing a Kurdish force to retake Arab territory held by Islamic State will sow future crises, and that other forces in the region including Kurdish Iraqi leaders also oppose the YPG, the Turkish official said.

Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said after talks in London last week with U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis that Trump’s meeting with Erdogan would be an opportunity to “correct the mistake” of support for the YPG.

“Now we will conduct the final talks,” Erdogan said. “After that we will make our final decision.”

The United States sees few alternatives to supporting the YPG, which forms a major part of the Syrian Democratic Forces advancing on Raqqa, if it is to achieve the goal of crushing Islamic State in Syria.

Erdogan did not spell out what actions Turkey might take if Washington does press ahead with its plans.

Officials have suggested it could step up air strikes on PKK bases in northern Iraq, or YPG targets in Syria. It could also impose limits on the use of its Incirlik air base as a launchpad for the air campaign against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

But that would hamper operations against jihadis who also menace Turkey and have claimed responsibility for attacks including the bombing of Istanbul airport in June 2016.

“Naturally (Turkey) would have to consider the aftermath of closing the Incirlik base to (U.S.) use,” said Soli Ozel, a lecturer at Turkey’s Kadir Has university.

“It will not be very easy to put relations back on track,” Ozel said. “I think ultimately a formula will be found. I think neither side wants to cut relations.”

(Additional reporting by Tulay Karadeniz; Writing by Dominic Evans; Editing by Gareth Jones)

Israeli forces kill Palestinian during clashes: Palestinian ministry, residents

A Palestinian protester hurls stones towards Israeli troops during clashes in the West Bank village of Beita, near Nablus May 12, 2017. REUTERS/Mohamad Torokman

JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Israeli soldiers shot dead a Palestinian during stone-throwing clashes in the occupied West Bank on Friday, residents and the Palestinian Health Ministry said.

An Israeli military spokeswoman said about 100 Palestinians were involved in what she described as a violent riot during which they threw stones at Israeli soldiers. “In response to the threat the soldiers fired riot dispersal means,” she said.

The Palestinian Health Ministry said the man killed had been shot in the chest. Residents of the West Bank village Nabi Saleh, near the city of Ramallah, said he was shot during stone-throwing clashes that erupted after Friday prayers.

At least 244 Palestinians have died during a wave of sporadic violence in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, that began in October 2015. At least 164 of them had launched stabbing, shooting or car ramming attacks, Israel says. Others died during clashes and protests.

In the same period of violence, 37 Israelis, two American tourists and a British student have been killed. The frequency of the attacks has slowed but has not stopped.

Israel has said the Palestinian leadership is inciting the violence. The Palestinian Authority, which exercises limited self-rule in the West Bank, denies incitement and says that, in many cases, Israel has used excessive force in thwarting attackers armed with rudimentary weapons.

(Reporting by Alis Sawafta and Maayan Lubell; Editing by Alison Williams)

Erdogan sees ‘new beginning’ in Turkish-U.S. ties despite Kurdish arms move

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan speaks during a news conference at Esenboga International airport in Ankara, Turkey May 12, 2017. Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Presidential Palace/Handout via REUTERS

By Humeyra Pamuk and Daren Butler

ISTANBUL (Reuters) – President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday his visit to the United States next week could mark a “new beginning” in relations between the NATO allies which were shaken by a U.S. decision to arm Kurdish YPG fighters in Syria.

Erdogan repeated Ankara’s criticism of President Donald Trump’s decision, saying it ran counter to the two countries’ strategic interests – but also sought to portray it as a relic of the Obama administration’s Middle East policy.

“The United States is still going through a transition period. And we have to be more careful and sensitive,” he told a news conference at the Ankara airport before departing for China and the United States, where he will meet Trump for the first time since the president’s January inauguration.

“Right now there are certain moves in the United States coming from the past, such as the weapons assistance to the YPG,” Erdogan said. “These are developments that are in contradiction to our strategic relations with the United States and of course we don’t want this to happen.”

Turkey considers the YPG an extension of the outlawed PKK, which has fought an insurgency in its southeast region for three decades and is designated a terrorist group by Turkey, the European Union and United States.

Erdogan said he did not want to see “a terrorist organization alongside the United States”, and that Turkey would continue military operations against Kurdish militia targets in Iraq and Syria.

He also said he would pursue “to the end” Turkey’s demand for the extradition of the U.S.-based Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen who Ankara says was behind a failed military coup last July. That was followed by a purge of tens of thousands of Turkish state employees accused of links to Gulen, who has denied any involvement in the coup attempt.

But the tone of Erdogan’s comments, four days before he is due in Washington to meet Trump, contrasted with angry rebukes from Ankara earlier this week, when the foreign minister said every weapon sent to the YPG was a threat to Turkey and the defense minister described the move as a crisis.

Erdogan, who had a fraught relationship with former President Barack Obama, said his meeting with Trump at the White House next week would be decisive. “I actually see this U.S. visit as a new beginning in our ties,” he said.

Trump’s Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said after talks in London on Thursday with Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim that he had no doubt the two countries could work through the tensions caused by the decision to arm the YPG.

A U.S. official also told Reuters that the United States was looking to boost intelligence cooperation with Turkey to support its fight against the PKK.

Asked about U.S. pledges of support, Erdogan suggested he will seek further guarantees when he meets Trump. “Among the information we have received, there is some that satisfy us and others that are not sufficient,” he said.

(Writing by Dominic Evans; Editing by David Dolan)

Iraq’s Shi’ite paramilitaries squeeze Islamic State toward Syria border

Debris is seen on a street controlled by Iraqi forces fighting the Islamic State fighters in north west of Mosul. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui

ERBIL, Iraq (Reuters) – Iraq’s Shi’ite paramilitaries launched an offensive on Friday to drive Islamic State from a desert region near the border with Syria as security forces fought the militants in the city of Mosul.

Spokesman Karim al-Nouri said the target of the operation was the Qairawan and Baaj areas about 100 km west of Mosul, where U.S.-backed Iraqi forces are advancing in their campaign to rout the militants from city.

Seven months into the Mosul campaign, Islamic State has been driven from all but a handful of districts in the city’s western half including the Old City, where it is using hundreds of thousands of civilians as human shields.

The paramilitaries have been kept on the sidelines of the battle for the city of Mosul itself, but have captured a vast, thinly populated area to the southwest, cutting Islamic State supply routes to Syria.

Islamic State is losing territory and on the retreat in both Iraq and Syria.

The Iraqi military said in a statement its air force was supporting the operation by the paramilitary groups known collectively as Hashid Shaabi or Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).

Unlike regular Iraqi security forces, the PMF does not receive support from the U.S.-led coalition, which is wary of Iran’s influence over the most powerful factions within the body.

Officially answerable to the government in Baghdad, the PMF were formed when Islamic State overran around one third of Iraq including Mosul nearly three years ago and Iraqi security forces disintegrated.

Nouri said PMF control over the border would assist Syrian government forces when they push toward the Islamic State-held city of Raqqa.

On Friday, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said their assault on Raqqa, the militants’ biggest urban stronghold, would begin soon and that they were awaiting weapons including armored vehicles from the U.S.-led coalition

The PMF is not officially involved in Syria, but tens of thousands of Iraqi Shi’ite militiamen are fighting there on behalf of the government of President Bashar al-Assad, which is backed by Iran.

(Reporting by Isabel Coles; Editing by Richard Lough)

U.S.-backed Syrian forces expect Raqqa assault soon, await weapons

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) officials hold a press conference in the town of Tabqa, after capturing it from Islamic State militants this week, Syria May 12, 2017. REUTERS/Rodi Said

By Rodi Said

TABQA, Syria (Reuters) – The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) said on Friday their attack to capture Raqqa city from Islamic State would begin soon and the U.S.-led coalition would supply them with weapons including armored vehicles for the assault.

The SDF, an alliance of militias including Arab groups and the Kurdish YPG militia, has been waging a campaign to isolate and ultimately capture Raqqa city since November, with backing from the U.S.-led coalition.

While the U.S.-led coalition has already supplied weapons to Arab fighters in the SDF, the White House this week authorized for the first time arming its most powerful element – the Kurdish YPG – to help in the Raqqa assault, infuriating Turkey.

SDF commander Abdul Qader Hevdeli declined to say when exactly the assault on Raqqa would begin, but said it would be soon during a news conference in the town of Tabqa, which the SDF captured this week from IS after weeks of fighting.

“I can’t specify exactly, I believe entering and storming the city will happen at the start of the summer,” he said.

“At the start of entering (Raqqa), of course, as (the U.S.-led coalition) promised us, there will be support in the form of specialized weapons, armored vehicles or others,” he said.

He said that weapons the White House has approved for the YPG had yet to arrive. “I believe these weapons or this support will arrive soon,” he said.

The capture of Tabqa and its nearby dam on the Euphrates river marked a major milestone in the SDF campaign against IS. The SDF said in a statement Tabqa would be turned over to a civilian council once fully secured.

It also said the authority that oversees the hydroelectric Tabqa dam would remain “a national Syrian institution that will serve all the regions of Syria without exception”.

(Additional reporting by Beirut bureau; Writing by Tom Perry; Editing by Hugh Lawson and Richard Lough)

Iraqis dig their own wells in battle-scarred Mosul

Iraqi security personnel stand guard during the inaugration of a water treatment plant on the outskirts of Qaraqosh, Iraq, May 7, 2017. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui

(This May 11 story has been refiled to correct U.N. to U.N. Development Program and adds government in paragraph 11.)

By Ahmed Aboulenein

MOSUL, Iraq (Reuters) – The families start queuing every day near the well in Mosul’s Karaj al-Shamal neighborhood, filling their large plastic containers with sulphurous, nearly undrinkable water.

As the battle to clear out Islamic State drags on around them, the residents of the wrecked city in northern Iraq have given up waiting for the government or international aid groups and started digging their own water out of the rubble.

They don’t always hit the cleanest sources.

“We have no water, no electricity, no salaries, and no food. What are we supposed to do? Eat grass?” says 56-year-old Fasla Taher, as she take her containers home to the nine orphans and two widowed daughters under her care.

Shaker Mahmoud, a carpenter and day laborer, says he helped dig the well, funded by a local benefactor. The same unnamed donor has paid for five others in the area and local charities have dug some more.

Families try boiling the water to make it safer to drink, but the smell and the taste linger. “It is not fit to drink. I took it to a lab once and they said it was 15-25 percent sulfur,” says Mahmoud.

The supply is still invaluable for washing – at least 10 children had died in the area because of unsanitary conditions since the fighting started.

Islamic State militants overran the city in 2014, taking it as their biggest base in Iraq and triggering counter-attacks that have destroyed large parts of the infrastructure, including the water pipes.

A government offensive that started in October has cleared the militants out of the eastern side of the city. But the ultra-conservative militants are holed up in the Old City on the western side of the Tigris river and fighting seems to have stalled.

WATER TREATMENT

The United Nations Development Program and the government this week also reopened a water sanitation plant, part of a program that they hope will supply all re-taken areas in three months – still a long wait for the residents.

“It’s now been weeks, months really, since there has been safe drinking water here and that is why the opening of this water treatment plant is just so important today,” Lise Grande, UNDP Resident Representative for Iraq, told Reuters on Sunday.

About another 25 other plants are in line for repairs.

Beyond Mosul itself, officials say it will take $35 billion to restore all facilities in surrounding Nineveh province, though the central government in Baghdad has not yet made funds available.

Back in Karaj al-Shamal, the residents are still doing the work for themselves, as they wait for their own treatment plant to be repaired.

Progress has been slow. Soon after Islamic State quit their area, locals pooled money to repair their pipeline, only to watch it destroyed in an air strike the same day the work finished.

So they resorted to their own wells, and queuing up outside with their large plastic containers.

“This is all set up by generous people. The state is not involved,” Mahmoud says.

(Reporting by Ahmed Aboulenein; Editing by Andrew Heavens)

With tunnel lifeline cut, pressure mounts on Syrian rebel enclave

Abu Malek, one of the survivors of a chemical attack in the Ghouta region of Damascus that took place in 2013, uses his crutches to walk along a street in the Ghouta town of Ain Tarma, Syria. REUTERS/Bassam Khabieh

By Ellen Francis

BEIRUT (Reuters) – For nearly four years, food, fuel and medicine have traveled across frontlines into the besieged eastern suburbs of Damascus through a network of underground tunnels.

But an army offensive near the Syrian capital has shut the routes into the rebel enclave of Eastern Ghouta, causing supplies to dwindle and prices to rocket, residents say.

“The price of fuel went up like crazy,” said Adnan, 30, the head of a local aid group that distributes food.

A cooking gas canister now costs 50,000 Syrian pounds, nearly four times its price before the attack and almost 20 times the state-regulated price in nearby Damascus.

Adnan, whose aid group buys rice, lentils and other goods that arrive via the tunnels, said the shutdown and steep price hikes had triggered rising despair in the suburbs.

As the army tightens the noose, fighters and civilians are bracing for a full-blown assault and bitter shortages that could last through the winter.

“The operation aims to strangle the Ghouta … by closing off the crossings and tunnels,” Hamza Birqdar, military spokesman for the Jaish al-Islam rebel group, told Reuters.

“Trade through the tunnels has completely stopped.”

Government forces have blockaded Eastern Ghouta, a densely populated pocket of satellite towns and farms, since 2013. It remains the only major rebel bastion near Damascus, though it has shrunk by almost half over the past year.

President Bashar al-Assad’s government has been steadily defeating pockets of armed rebellion near the capital, with the help of Russian air power and Iranian-backed militias.

It ultimately aims to seize the Ghouta, pushing fighters to accept state rule or leave for rebel territory in the north, in a type of negotiated withdrawal that has helped shore up its rule over Syria’s main urban centers.

TUNNEL CRACKDOWN

Heavy fighting and air strikes have rocked the districts that stand between Damascus and Eastern Ghouta, severing smuggling routes that provided a lifeline for around 300,000 people in the besieged suburbs.

The army assault entered a higher gear in recent months in the districts of Barzeh and Qaboun, at the capital’s eastern edges, which abruptly ended a local truce that had been in place with rebels there since 2014.

Their relative calm and location had turned them into a transit point where traders brought supplies from the capital and shuttled them underground into the opposition enclave. Government forces have now swept into most of the two districts.

The siege generated a black market economy and profiteers who traded across frontlines, says an activist who has smuggled medicine through one of the tunnels.

Goods prices were ramped up by payments to checkpoints in government-held areas and rebels that control the tunnels, the activist and other residents said.

Syrian officials were not available for comment on such allegations.

Syrian state media says Ghouta militants dug tunnels hundreds of meters long to move weapons and ambush army positions. The tunnels have been a target of army operations, with several blown up in recent months, it has said.

The wide array of rebels – including hardline jihadists and other groups supported by Turkey, the United States and Gulf monarchies – have been on the back-foot across Syria.

In Eastern Ghouta, a bout of renewed rebel infighting, after a rebel attack at the fringes of Damascus quickly fizzled out in March, could play into the government’s hands.

Birqdar said rebels faced “heavy shelling, air strikes, and incoming tanks” every day. “We must prepare for every scenario that could happen on the battlefield,” he said.

“We are fully ready to negotiate over stopping the bloodshed by the regime, but will not accept any talks that lead to surrender.” He ruled out a local evacuation deal.

The government says such deals have succeeded where U.N.-based peace talks failed. The opposition describes it as a strategy of forced displacement after years of siege – a method of warfare the United Nations has condemned as a war crime.

WHEN WINTER COMES

The U.N. has warned of impending starvation if aid does not reach Eastern Ghouta, where international deliveries have long been erratic and obstructed. A convoy that entered last week, for the first time in months, carried food and supplies for just about 10 percent of the estimated population.

“People have rushed to the markets to stock up,” said Adnan. “Because they have bitter memories of 2013,” when their towns first came under siege.

Merchants inside the Ghouta had filled up large warehouses that would last months, and residents would harvest crops in the area’s remaining farmland in the summer, he said. “Things will get worse when winter comes.”

The Wafideen crossing at the outskirts, where checkpoints allowed food to enter, has also been restricted since February, Adnan and others said.

One resident said rebel fighters also ran their own hidden routes through which they had moved unnoticed or smuggled arms.

Medics relied on the tunnels for antibiotics, anesthetics, and other supplies, said Abu Ibrahim Baker, a surgeon in Eastern Ghouta. Hospitals would be “able to hold out, God willing, but not for very long,” he said.

(Reporting by Ellen Francis; Editing by Tom Perry and Catherine Evans)

Security situation in Afghanistan likely to get worse: U.S. intel chief

U.S. Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats testifies before the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S. May 11, 2017. REUTERS/Eric Thayer

By Idrees Ali

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The security situation in Afghanistan will further deteriorate even if there is a modest increase in U.S. military support for the war-torn country, the top U.S. intelligence official said on Thursday, as President Donald Trump’s administration weighs sending more forces to Afghanistan.

Afghan army units are pulling back, and in some cases have been forced to abandon more scattered and rural bases, and the government can claim to control or influence only 57 percent of the country, according to U.S. military estimates from earlier this year.

“The intelligence community assesses that the political and security situation in Afghanistan will almost certainly deteriorate through 2018, even with a modest increase in (the)military assistance by the United States and its partners,” Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats said in a Senate hearing.

In February, Army General John Nicholson, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, said he needs several thousand more international troops to break a stalemate with the Taliban.

Reuters reported in late April that Trump’s administration was carrying out a review of Afghanistan and conversations are revolving around sending between 3,000 and 5,000 U.S. and coalition troops to Afghanistan.

Deliberations include giving more authorities to forces on the ground and taking more aggressive action against Taliban fighters. This could allow U.S. advisers to work with Afghan troops below the corps level, potentially putting them closer to fighting, a U.S. official said.

In the same hearing, the head of the military’s Defense Intelligence Agency said the situation would worsen unless U.S. trainers worked with Afghan soldiers closer to the front line, their numbers increased and there was greater intelligence and surveillance.

Trump has not been formally presented with the options yet.

Some U.S. officials said they questioned the benefit of sending more troops to Afghanistan because any politically palatable number would not be enough to turn the tide, much less create stability and security. To date, more than 2,300 Americans have been killed and over 17,000 wounded.

President Ashraf Ghani’s U.S.-backed government remains plagued by corruption and divided by factions loyal to political strongmen whose armed supporters often are motivated by ethnic, family, and regional loyalties.

Coats said that Afghanistan would struggle to decrease its reliance on the international community “until it contains the insurgency or reaches a peace agreement with the Taliban.”

(Reporting by Idrees Ali; Editing by Alistair Bell)

Mattis tells Turkey’s PM: U.S. committed to your security

FILE PHOTO: U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis addresses a news conference during a NATO defence ministers meeting at the Alliance headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, February 16, 2017. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir/File Photo

By Phil Stewart

LONDON (Reuters) – U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim on Thursday that Washington was committed to protecting its NATO ally, a spokeswoman said, as Turkey fumes over a decision to arm Kurdish fighters in Syria.

The roughly half-hour meeting in London appeared to be the highest level talks between the two nations since Washington announced on Tuesday plans to back the YPG militia in an assault to retake the city of Raqqa from Islamic State.

Turkey views the YPG as the Syrian extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which has fought an insurgency in southeast Turkey since 1984 and is considered a terrorist group by the United States, Turkey and Europe.

A U.S. official told Reuters that the United States was looking to boost intelligence cooperation with Turkey to support its fight against the PKK. The Wall Street Journal reported the effort could end up doubling the capacity of an intelligence fusion center in Ankara.

It was unclear if the effort would be enough to soothe Turkey, however.

Turkey has warned the United States that its decision to arm Kurdish forces fighting Islamic State in Syria could end up hurting Washington, and accused its NATO ally of siding with terrorists.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who will meet U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington next week, has voiced hopes Washington might reverse the decision.

Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White disclosed little about Mattis’ meeting with Binali in London, where both men were attending a conference on Somalia.

“The secretary reiterated U.S. commitment to protecting our NATO ally,” she said in a statement after the talks.

Mattis, speaking on Wednesday, expressed confidence that the United States would be able to resolve tensions with Turkey over the decision to arm the Kurds, saying: “We’ll work out any of the concerns.”

Yildirim told reporters on Wednesday the U.S. decision “will surely have consequences and will yield a negative result for the U.S. as well”.

The United States regards the YPG as a valuable partner in the fight against Islamic State militants in northern Syria.

Washington says that arming the Kurdish forces is necessary to recapturing Raqqa, Islamic State’s de facto capital in Syria and a hub for planning attacks against the West.

That argument holds little sway with Ankara, which worries that advances by the YPG in northern Syria could inflame the PKK insurgency on Turkish soil.

(Reporting by Phil Stewart, editing by Larry King)

Charismatic Tehran mayor defies establishment to stay in presidential race

Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf gestures in this undated handout photo provided by Tasnim News Agency on May 9, 2017. Tasnim News Agency/Handout via REUTERS

By Parisa Hafezi

ANKARA (Reuters) – The charismatic 55-year-old mayor of Tehran seems a long-shot contender for Iran’s presidency, but could emerge as the main threat to President Hassan Rouhani if he beats other hardliners to emerge as the sole challenger in a second round.

A chisel-jawed former Revolutionary Guards commander with an action man persona, an airline pilot’s license and a populist economic message, Baqer Qalibaf has so far defied the clerical establishment by refusing to drop out before the May 19 vote.

In the last election four years ago, Qalibaf very nearly made it to the run-off, despite placing a distant second to Rouhani with just 16.5 percent of the vote. Rouhani, who promised to reduce Iran’s international isolation and grant more freedoms at home, averted a second round by winning just over 50 percent.

This time around, establishment hardliners who want to unseat Rouhani are mainly placing their trust in Ebrahim Raisi, a jurist and cleric who studied at the feet of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

They are not happy that the maverick Tehran mayor is standing again and splitting the anti-Rouhani vote.

“Qalibaf’s decision to remain in the race represents is a risk for him and the establishment,” said an official in Tehran, who asked not to be identified. “It will divide hardliners’ votes but it will also endanger his future career, as Qalibaf has ignored influential hardliners’ call to step down.”

Still, with his own record of drawing millions of voters, Qalibaf may be hoping he can beat Raisi in the first round to face Rouhani in the run-off a week later, which would force conservatives to rally behind him.

A similar path carried a previous populist Tehran mayor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to the presidency in 2005, despite never quite dispelling the discomfort of the establishment.

From Qalibaf’s perspective, that could have been him: in 2005, he resigned his military posts to run for president and was seen as a strong contender, only to lose the crucial battle for second place in the final days when hardliners switched their allegiance to Ahmadinejad.

Ahmadinejad won 19.5 percent in the first round, good enough for second place, on his way to a surprising triumph against former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in the run-off. Qalibaf went on to win Ahamdinejad’s job as mayor of the capital, a post he has held ever since.

Qalibaf promotes his record as a pragmatic problem-solver, tackling the capital’s acute infrastructure problems and improving public transportation.

But Tehran’s chaotic and chronically snarled traffic, a corruption investigation in 2016 and the deaths of 50 firefighters in the collapse of a 17-storey building in January in Tehran have dented his popularity.

To civil rights activists and reformers he is also known for his previous role as a police chief who boasted of crushing protests and personally beating demonstrators.

He joined the elite Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) at 19 and served as the commander of its air force from 1996. He still has a license to fly big airliners. He was appointed by Khamenei as Iran’s police chief after a bloody crackdown on students in Tehran ignited nationwide unrest in 1999.

In a two-hour audio recording, released by opposition websites and the U.S.-based International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, Qalibaf is heard describing how he personally beat up protesters with batons.

He was among a group of IRGC commanders who in June 2003 sent a letter to then-president Mohammad Khatami, now seen as the father of Iran’s reform movement, effectively threatening a coup unless the president took firm control of protests.

(Writing by Parisa Hafezi; editing by Peter Graff)