Tag Archives: Interest Rates

Wall Street kicks off 2018 on a strong note

The trading floor is seen on the final day of trading for the year at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York, U.S., December 29, 2017

By Sruthi Shankar

(Reuters) – Wall Street’s main indexes were higher on Tuesday, the first trading day of the year, buoyed by gains in technology and consumer discretionary stocks.

Major stock indexes closed out 2017 with their best performance since 2013, powered by a combination of strong economic growth, solid corporate earnings, low interest rates and hopes of corporate tax cuts.

“The first week of trading usually suggests the overall trend of the markets which we expect to be positive,” Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial in New York, wrote in a note.

Oil prices hovered near their mid-2015 highs on Tuesday amid large anti-government rallies in major exporter Iran and ongoing supply cuts led by OPEC and Russia.

Gold and copper prices continued their upward march, but the greenback began the year on the back foot, with the dollar index slipping to its weakest level since September.

“While we don’t expect the Iranian unrest to reach a full blown political situation just yet, the protest will add to an already positive uptrend in oil and gold prices,” Cardillo said.

December payrolls report, data on manufacturing and service sectors are among leading indicators expected during the week, and will be scrutinized for signs of improving economic health and the number of interest rate hikes this year.

Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, when the central bank raised rates for the fourth time since the 2008 financial crisis, will be issued on Wednesday.

At 9:34 a.m. ET (1434 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 112.06 points, or 0.45 percent, at 24,831.28 and the S&P 500 was up 9.49 points, or 0.35 percent, at 2,683.1. The Nasdaq Composite was up 21.51 points, or 0.31 percent, at 6,924.90.

Six of the 11 major S&P sectors were higher, led by gains in technology and consumer discretionary stocks.

Shares of Walt Disney rose 1.6 percent, giving the biggest boost to the Dow, after brokerage Macquire upgraded the company’s stock to “outperform”.

Netflix and Discovery Communications also rose on positive recommendations from Macquire.

Shares of casino operators Wynn resorts, Las Vegas Sands and Melco Resorts Entertainment were down after a report showed lower-than-expected rise in Macau gambling revenue in December.

Abbott Labs jumped 2.6 percent after JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley upgraded the healthcare company’s stock to “overweight”.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 1,938 to 652. On the Nasdaq, 1,678 issues rose and 743 fell.

(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)

Fed interest rate hike expected next week, three hikes expected in 2018/poll

The Federal Reserve headquarters in Washington September 16 2015. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

By Shrutee Sarkar

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise interest rates later this month, according to a Reuters poll of economists, a majority of whom now expect three more rate rises next year compared with two when surveyed just weeks ago.

The results, from a survey taken just before the U.S. Senate voted to pass tax cuts that are expected to add about $1.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, show economists were already becoming more convinced that rates will need to go even higher.

While about 80 percent of economists surveyed in October said such tax cuts were not necessary, the passage of the bill, President Donald Trump’s first major legislative success, means the forecast risks have shifted toward higher rates, and faster.

The poll’s newly raised expectations for three rate rises next year are now in line with the Fed’s own projections. But they come despite a split among U.S. policymakers on the outlook for inflation, which has remained persistently low.

That is a similar challenge faced by other major central banks, who are generally turning away from easy monetary policy put in place since the financial crisis, looking through still-weak wage inflation and overall price pressures for now.

The core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which excludes food and energy and is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, has undershot the central bank’s 2 percent target for nearly 5-1/2 years.

The latest Reuters poll results suggest it is expected to average below 2 percent until 2019.

While the U.S. economy expanded in the third quarter at a 3.3 percent annualized rate, its fastest pace in three years, the latest Reuters poll – taken mostly before the release of that data – suggested that may be the best growth rate at least until the second half of 2019.

The most optimistic growth forecast at any point over the next year or so was 3.7 percent, well below the post-financial crisis peak of 5.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2009.

Still, all the 103 economists polled, including 19 large banks that deal directly with the Fed, said the federal funds rate will go up again in December by 25 basis points, to 1.25-1.50 percent.

“This is about just getting back to a neutral level where monetary policy is neither encouraging growth or pushing against growth,” said Brett Ryan, senior U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, which recently shifted its view to four rate rises next year.

“The Fed is still accommodative at the moment and we are still some ways away from the neutral fed funds rate which would in the Fed’s view be closer to 2.75 percent. The Fed can hike without slowing the economy.”

Financial markets are also pricing in over a 90 percent chance of a 25 basis-point hike in December, largely based on the falling unemployment rate and reasonably strong economic growth this year.

Asked what is the primary driver behind the Fed’s wish to raise rates further, over 40 percent of respondents said it was to tap down future inflation.

However, almost a third of economists said it is to gather enough ammunition to combat the next recession.

“At some point we are going to have a downturn and they (the Fed) are going to need to react and it is harder to do that when rates are closer to zero,” said Sam Bullard, an economist at Wells Fargo.

The remaining roughly 30 percent had varied responses, including some who said higher rates were needed to avoid risks to financial stability.

Over 90 percent of the 66 economists who answered another question said that the coming changes at the Fed – a new Fed Chair along with several new Fed Board members – will also not alter the current expected course of rate hikes.

“Both the rate tightening outlook and balance sheet reduction program will remain in place as the Fed officials fill open seats. Easing of financial regulation is likely the area that has the most forthcoming changes,” Bullard said.

 

(Additional reporting and polling by Khushboo Mittal and Mumal Rathore; Editing by Ross Finley and Hugh Lawson)

 

Fed’s Dudley confident U.S. inflation should rebound with wages

William C. Dudley, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York speaks during a panel discussion at The Bank of England in London,

y Jonathan Spicer

PLATTSBURG, NY (Reuters) – U.S. inflation is a bit low but should rebound alongside wages as the labor market continues to improve, an influential Federal Reserve official said on Monday, reinforcing the message that a recent patch of weak data is unlikely to derail plans to keep raising interest rates.

The comments by New York Fed President William Dudley, a close ally of Fed Chair Janet Yellen, were among the first after the U.S. central bank hiked rates last week in the face of a series of soft inflation readings.

“This is actually a pretty good place to be” with unemployment at 4.3 percent and inflation at about 1.5 percent, Dudley told the North Country Chamber of Commerce in Plattsburg, New York.

“We are pretty close to full employment,” he said. “Inflation is a little lower than what we would like, but we think that if the labor market continues to tighten, wages will gradually pick up and with that, inflation will gradually get back to 2 percent.”

Price readings have edged lower over the past few months, raising questions about the Fed’s general plan to boost rates one more time before the year-end, and another three times next year. Last week’s hike was the central bank’s third in six months.

Asked about a so-called flattening of yields in the bond market, which suggest investors are skeptical that this Fed policy-tightening cycle will last much longer, Dudley said pausing policy now could raise the risk of inflation surging and hurting the economy.

He said he did not read the market move as a negative signal for the U.S. economy, but rather one that reflects low overseas inflation and borrowing costs.

“I am very confident” that economic expansion “has quite a long ways to go,” Dudley said, adding he expected wage growth to rise to about 3 percent over the next year or two.

(Editing by Bernadette Baum)

U.S. stocks open higher after strong private jobs data

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 31, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan

By Sweta Singh

(Reuters) – U.S. stocks were higher on Thursday after better-than-expected private sector hiring showed that the labor market continues to strengthen, further boosting chances of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve later this month.

The ADP private sector employment report showed that 253,000 jobs were added in May, well above the 185,000 jobs estimated by economists polled by Reuters.

The report by payrolls processor ADP acts as a precursor to the much-awaited nonfarm payrolls data, due on Friday, that includes hiring in both the public and private sectors.

“I think the Fed has already made up its mind. Unless we have a real weak employment data tomorrow I think it’s a go-ahead for the Fed to raise rates in June,” said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard Financial in New York.

San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said on Wednesday he sees a total of three interest rate increases for this year as his baseline scenario, but views four hikes as also being appropriate if the U.S. economy gets an unexpected boost.

Forecasts from Fed officials suggest that a median of two more hikes are planned before the end of the year.

Traders priced in an 89 percent chance of a rate hike in the upcoming Fed meeting on June 14, according to Thomson Reuters data.

At 9:52 a.m. ET the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 21.5 points, or 0.1 percent, at 21,030.15, the S&P 500 was up 6.16 points, or 0.25 percent, at 2,417.96 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 26.51 points, or 0.43 percent, at 6,225.03.    Seven of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were higher, with the health and technology sectors leading the gainers.

The Institute for Supply Management is likely to report that its national manufacturing index slipped to 54.5 in May from 54.8 in April. The data is expected at 10:00 ET.

“We have a multitude of macro news coming out today and that will set the tone for the market’s direction … I think we are looking at another trying session,” Cardillo said.

Deere’s shares were up 1.9 percent at $124.74 after the farm and construction major said it would buy privately held German road construction company Wirtgen Group for $5.2 billion, including debt.

Goodyear Tire’s shares were up 5.7 percent at $34.03 after Morgan Stanley raised its rating to “overweight” from “underweight”.

Box Inc was up 3.9 percent at $19.40 after the cloud storage firm’s quarterly earnings edged ahead of Wall Street analysts’ expectations.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by 1,931 to 657. On the Nasdaq, 1,707 issues rose and 624 fell.

The S&P 500 index showed 28 new 52-week highs and 11 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 82 new highs and 70 new lows.

(Reporting by Sweta Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty and Anil D’Silva)

U.S. inflation expectations edge up: NY Fed

A shopper walks by the sodas aisle at a grocery store in Los Angeles

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Measures of U.S. inflation rebounded slightly last month, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released on Monday that also showed a sharp drop in Americans’ spending expectations.

The survey of consumer expectations, one of several gauges of prices for the U.S. central bank, showed median inflation expectations for one year ahead edged up to 2.8 percent in April, from 2.7 percent in March. The three-year measure was 2.9 percent, compared to 2.7 percent a month earlier.

The bump, which the New York Fed said was driven by those with lower income and education, keeps the price measures roughly in a range since late last year.

The central bank has raised interest rates twice since December in large part on expectations that inflation will keep edging higher.

The survey also showed median household spending growth expectations dropped to 2.6 percent last month, from 3.3 percent in March. It was the lowest level since the New York Fed began measuring in mid-2013.

The internet-based survey is done by a third party and taps a rotating panel of 1,200 household heads.

(Reporting by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Consumer spending slows; inflation pushing higher

A customer shops at a Walmart Supercenter in Rogers, Arkansas June 6, 2013. REUTERS/Rick Wilking

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending barely rose in February amid delays in the payment of income tax refunds, but the biggest annual increase in inflation in nearly five years supported expectations of further interest rate hikes this year.

The Commerce Department said on Friday consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, edged up 0.1 percent. That was the smallest gain since August and followed an unrevised 0.2 percent rise in January.

Economists had expected a 0.2 percent increase.

The government delayed the issuing of tax refunds this year as part of efforts to combat fraud. Spending last month was held back by a 0.1 percent dip in purchases of big-ticket items like automobiles. While unseasonably warm weather reduced households’ heating bills, it restricted spending last month.

Weak consumer spending suggested that economic growth slowed further in the first quarter. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter, stepping down from the July-September quarter’s brisk 3.5 percent pace.

Despite signs of moderate growth, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates at least twice more this year. The U.S. central bank raised its benchmark overnight interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point this month.

Prices for U.S. Treasuries fell on the data, while the dollar was little changed against a basket of currencies. U.S. stock index futures were slightly lower.

With consumer confidence at 16-year highs and labor market tightness pushing up wage growth, the moderation in spending is likely to be temporary. Even with economic growth slowing at the start of the year, inflation is rising.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index gained 0.1 percent last month after jumping 0.4 percent in January. That lifted the year-on-year rate of increase in the PCE price index to 2.1 percent, the biggest gain since April 2012. The PCE price index rose 1.9 percent in January.

Excluding food and energy, the so-called core PCE price index increased 0.2 percent last month after rising 0.3 percent in January. In the 12 months through February, the core PCE price index increased 1.8 percent after a similar gain in January.

The core PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure and is running below its 2 percent target. Inflation is now in the upper end of the range that Fed officials in March felt would be reached this year.

Rising price pressures are also eating into consumer spending. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending fell 0.1 percent in February after declining 0.2 percent in January.

That suggests a sharp deceleration in the pace of consumer spending after a robust 3.5 percent growth rate in the fourth quarter.

Personal income rose 0.4 percent last month after advancing 0.5 percent in January. Wages increased 0.5 percent, the biggest gain in five months.

Income at the disposal of households after accounting for inflation increased 0.2 percent after dipping 0.1 percent in January. Savings rose to a five-month high of $808.0 billion from $770.9 billion in January.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Wall Street treads water as investors await Fed decision

A trader wears a hat referencing the proximity of Dow Jones Industrial Average to 20,000 as he works on floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) shortly before the close of trading in New York, U.S.

By Tanya Agrawal

(Reuters) – Wall Street opened little changed on Wednesday, a day after all three major indexes hit record highs, as investors awaited the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting.

The Fed is widely tipped to lift rates 25 basis points to 0.50-0.75 percent. The announcement is due at 2 p.m. ET (1900 GMT), followed by Chair Janet Yellen’s news conference 30 minutes later.

Market participants will be paying close attention to Yellen’s tone and new forecasts, seeking clues on policymakers’ thinking on how President-elect Donald Trump’s policies will impact growth and inflation.

However, concerns over a strengthening dollar linger with the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, hitting 14-year peaks last month.

“Markets are acting like a zombie today ahead of the Fed decision,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets.

“It is not that they are not expecting a rate hike from the Fed, it is the element of the unknown which Yellen would deliver in her statement.”

At 9:37 a.m. ET the Dow Jones industrial average was up 0.26 points, or 0 percent, at 19,911.47, the S&P 500 was up 0.47 points, or 0.020689 percent, at 2,272.19 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 7.65 points, or 0.14 percent, at 5,471.48.

Six of the 11 major S&P sectors were lower, with the financial index’s 0.91 percent fall leading the decliners.

Wells Fargo fell 2.5 percent to $54.43 after the bank’s “living will” failed U.S. regulators’ assessment for a second time this year.

Oil prices fell about 2 percent as glut worries resurfaced after a reported rise in U.S. crude inventories.

U.S. stocks hit new all-time highs on Tuesday and the Dow Jones industrial average ended fewer than 100 points away from the 20,000 mark as a post-election rally showed no signs of fatigue.

The Dow has climbed about 9 percent since the Nov. 8 election, with gains fueled by expectations that Trump will reduce taxes and regulation and stimulate the economy.

“I don’t think the Dow is an indicator of anything because it’s such a small sample and the way in which the index is constructed,” said Patrick Kaser, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global.

“But that said, right now we’ve been in a month of bullishness and optimism and so the mood will swing to skepticism as we wait for actual policies to come out.”

Meanwhile, U.S. retail sales barely rose in November as households cut back on purchases of motor vehicles. The Commerce Department said retail sales edged up 0.1 percent. Economists had forecast overall retail sales increasing 0.3 percent.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand increased 0.4 percent last month, the largest gain since June, after being unchanged in October.

General Motors fell 2.5 percent to $36.40 and Ford declined 1.3 percent to $12.59 following a report that China will soon slap a penalty on an unnamed U.S. automaker for monopolistic behavior.

Hertz Global dropped 1.4 percent to $24.80 after the car rental company said on Tuesday it would replace its chief executive and reduce its board size.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by 1,445 to 1,133. On the Nasdaq, 1,227 issues fell and 1,028 advanced.

The S&P 500 index showed six new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 26 new highs and six new lows.

(Reporting by Tanya Agrawal; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)

Dollar steadies as pre-Fed nerves dominate

Bank notes of Euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, GB pound and Chinese yuan are seen in this picture

y Patrick Graham

LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar steadied against the yen and euro on Tuesday after its weakest day in a week, with markets still uneasy that a Federal Reserve meeting ending on Wednesday may provoke more investors to cash in the greenback’s recent gains.

Barclays was the latest major bank to cast some doubt on a dollar rally extending into a first quarter set to be dominated by the first policy initiatives from the Trump administration.

While investors have bet on the new president taking steps to bolster growth that will push inflation higher, there are also concerns that he may spark protectionism globally, driving cash into traditional safe havens like the yen.

A rise in Fed interest rates on Wednesday, a big reason for the dollar index’s 7 percent rise since September, looks fully priced in and there are also doubts over whether the U.S. central bank will want to send a strong signal that more tightening is to follow.

“We think the meeting may be a catalyst for people to take some profit on long dollar positions,” Barclays analyst Hamish Pepper said.

“The dollar tends not to perform particularly well in December. If you put that together with a well priced Fed meeting plus already long positioning, it is the right set-up for a pullback.”

The yen strengthened to less than 115 yen per dollar in Asian trade before settling at 115.34, down 0.2 percent on the day but almost a full yen stronger than 24 hours previously.

It has borne the brunt of the dollar’s rally in the past month, down 13 percent since early October. But some traders and analysts have begun to wonder if the Japanese currency might benefit next year if global political risks grow.

Barclays forecasts the dollar weakening to 100 yen in a year’s time.

The euro was little changed at $1.0629 having gained 0.7 percent on Monday as German bund yields rose amid signs Italy will bail out Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena if need be.

Sterling inched higher helped by higher than expected inflation for November and comments from finance minister Philip Hammond backing a transition period to smooth the process of leaving the European Union.

“Rates markets are discounting close to five 25 basis point Fed rate hikes by the end of 2018,” analysts from BNP Paribas said in a note to clients.

“With the Fed likely to be cautious in its forward-looking language on Wednesday, those positioned long dollars heading into the meeting may be concluding that risk-reward is not attractive for staying in positions into the event risk.”

(Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

Oil surges to one-and-a-half-year high, Fed rate increase looms

A gas station attendant pumps fuel into a customer's car at PetroChina's petrol station in Beijing, China,

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices surged to their highest since mid-2015 and U.S. Treasury yields hit a more than two-year peak on Monday after the world’s top crude producers agreed to the first joint output cut since 2001.

Coming at the start of a week when the United States is expected to raise interest rates for the only the second time since the global financial crisis, the weekend agreement between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and key non-OPEC states set the markets alive.

Brent oil futures soared 5 percent to top $57 a barrel for the first time since July 2015 and U.S. crude leapt above $54 a barrel to send global inflation gauges spiking as well.

There was particular surprise as Saudi Arabia, the world’s number one producer, said it may cut its output even more than it had first suggested at an OPEC meeting just over a week ago.

“The original OPEC deal pointed to a fairly lumpy 3 percent cut (in production), so this suggests there is a bit more upside for oil prices,” said Neil Williams, chief economist at fund manager Hermes.

On the rise in bond yields, which tend to set global borrowing costs, he added: “The Fed hike is mostly baked in so when we do get it, it will be more about the statement.”

European oil companies jumped more than 2 percent on the oil surge and helped the pan-regional STOXX 50 index add 0.1 percent, having just had its best week in exactly five years.

Bond markets in contrast were under heavy pressure. Euro zone government bond yields were sharply higher with German Bunds up 5 basis points at 0.40 percent as U.S. yields topped 2.5 percent for the first time since October 2014.

“We have seen OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreeing, which is boosting reflation expectations around the world,” said Chris Weston, an institutional dealer with IG Markets.

In another sign of the reflation trade, breakeven rates –the gap between yields of five-year U.S. debt and a matching tenor in inflation-protected securities — were at two-month highs.

Wall Street futures, meanwhile, pointed to the main U.S. indexes barely budging when they resume, having enjoyed an uninterrupted gain of nearly 4 percent over the past six sessions.

FED UP

Focus was also on the currency markets as the dollar rose to its highest since February against the Japanese yen, before what is almost certain to be the first rate hike of the year from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Japan’s yen also tends to suffer when oil prices rise, since the country is a major importer.

The Norwegian crown, Canadian dollar and Russia rouble were the big gainers from the oil deal. The rouble rose almost 2 percent against both the dollar and euro as Russia shares, which have rocketed almost 90 percent since January, hit the latest in a string of record highs.

Overnight in Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.5 percent after posting its biggest weekly rise in nearly three months last week.

China stocks suffered their biggest fall in six months as blue chips were knocked by fresh regulatory curbs to rein in insurers’ aggressive stock investments and rising bond yields prompted profit-taking in equities.

The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 2.4 percent, to 3,409.18 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.5 percent to 3,152.97 points.

China’s insurance regulator, which recently warned it would curb “barbaric” acquisitions by insurers, said late on Friday it had suspended the insurance arm of China’s Evergrande Group from conducting stock market investment.

Concerns were also rumbling about U.S.-Sino relations after Donald Trump re-ignited controversy over Taiwan.

“I fully understand the ‘one China’ policy, but I don’t know why we have to be bound by a ‘one China’ policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News.

Emerging markets are already bracing for a difficult run if U.S. rate hikes push up the dollar and global bond yields.

Turkey’s lira has borne the brunt of much of the pressure in recent weeks, and it took another 1 percent hit alongside a sharp fall in Turkish bonds after data showed the country’s economy suffering its first contraction since 2009.

Gold, meanwhile, which had a bumper first half of 2016, hit its lowest level since early February at $1,152 an ounce.

(Additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee in Hong Kong, editing by Larry King)

U.S. jobless claims drop from five-month high

help wanted sign in Colorado

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell from a five-month high last week, pointing to labor strength that underscores the economy’s sustained momentum.

A tight labor market together with signs of a strengthening economy and steadily rising inflation will likely push the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates next week.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 for the week ended Dec. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were unrevised.

It was the 92nd straight week that claims were below 300,000, a threshold associated with a healthy labor market. That is the longest stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller.

U.S. financial markets were largely unmoved by the data as investors focused on the European Central Bank’s unexpected decision to cut its asset purchases starting in April.

Prices for U.S. government debt were trading lower, while U.S. stock index futures were higher. The U.S. dollar was stronger against a basket of currencies.

Last week’s drop in first-time applications for jobless benefits was in line with economists’ expectations. Claims hit a 43-year low in mid-November.

Economists had dismissed the recent back-to-back increases in filings, which had pushed claims to a five-month high, as an aberration. Claims tend to be volatile around this time of the year because of different timings of the Thanksgiving holiday.

A Labor Department analyst said there were no special factors influencing last week’s data and that no states had been estimated. The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 1,000 to 252,500 last week.

The labor market is near full employment, with the government reporting last week that the unemployment rate fell to a nine-year low of 4.6 percent in November amid solid increases in nonfarm payrolls.

The Fed’s policy-setting committee meets next Tuesday and Wednesday. Economists expect the U.S. central bank to increase borrowing costs by at least 25 basis points at that meeting. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight interest rate last December for the first time in nearly a decade.

Thursday’s claims report also showed the number of people still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid fell 79,000 to 2.01 million in the week ended Nov. 26. That followed two straight weekly increases.

The four-week average of the so-called continuing claims slipped 9,500 to 2.03 million.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)