Important Takeaways:
- Just one day after pagers used by hundreds of members of the militant group Hezbollah exploded, more electronic devices detonated in Lebanon Wednesday in what appeared to be a second wave of sophisticated, deadly attacks that targeted an extraordinary number of people.
- Both attacks, which are widely believed to be carried out by Israel, have hiked fears that the two sides’ simmering conflict could escalate into all-out war.
- Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said Thursday the mass bombing attack on the group’s communications devices was a “severe blow” and said Israel had crossed a “red line.”
- Tuesday’s explosions were most likely the result of supply-chain interference, several experts told the AP — noting that very small explosive devices may have been built into the pagers prior to their delivery to Hezbollah, and then all remotely triggered simultaneously, possibly with a radio signal.
- The specifics of Wednesday’s explosions are still uncertain. But reports of more electronic devices exploding may suggest even greater infiltration of boobytrap-like interference in Lebanon’s supply chain.
- An attack of this caliber requires building the relationships needed to gain physical access to the pagers before they were sold; developing the technology that would be embedded in the devices; and developing sources who can confirm that the targets were carrying the pagers.
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Important Takeaways:
- How do we know that the coming days, weeks, and month or two before winter are potentially explosive?
- It is not just Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who told US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on Monday, that the possibility for a diplomatic solution with Hezbollah in the North is running out.
- It is not just the rumors that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to replace Gallant with Gideon Sa’ar as defense minister in order to have greater support for a major operation against Hezbollah.
- Throughout, the main reason not to enter into war with Hezbollah was to avoid distractions that might handicap the IDF from its goal of taking apart all 24 of Hamas’s battalions in Gaza.
- Gallant declared Hamas’s last battalion in Rafah defeated on August 21, nearly a month ago.
- Despite Netanyahu’s publicly threatening words and tone, another major reason that war has not broken out is that the prime minister was privately terrified of how many Israelis might die from an estimated Hezbollah onslaught of 6,000-8,000 rockets per day.
- August 25 is when all of that changed – radically.
- On that day, Hezbollah planned to launch several hundred, possibly up to 1,000 rockets on Israel, including on critical intelligence headquarters bases north of Tel Aviv.
- Yet, on August 25, the IDF did not just beat Hezbollah – it cleaned house.
- The military blew up the vast majority of the rockets and drones with which Hezbollah had intended to attack Israel before these threats could even be launched.
- Suddenly, Netanyahu has a newfound confidence: that he actually can afford a major operation against Hezbollah – with much fewer losses to the home front than he had expected.
- So, what if – instead of 5,000-10,000 dead Israelis from tens of thousands of Hezbollah rockets over several weeks – he could hit Hezbollah harder than it’s ever been hit before and destroy so many of its rocket launchers on the ground that Israeli casualties might not be just smaller but exponentially smaller?
- Finally, the winter factor comes into play.
- Sources have told the Post that if more than 4-6 weeks pass without an operation, it may be impossible – or much harder – to carry out such an operation until Spring 2025.
- This would mean condemning the northern residents to another 6 months outside of their homes, something becoming increasingly untenable domestically in Israel.
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Important Takeaways:
- Making deals with Islamic terrorists doesn’t work
- “In its boldest move, Hezbollah sent four drones toward the Karish platform several weeks ago, all of which were intercepted by the Israel Defense Forces,” reported The Times of Israel on July 31, 2022.
- This was exactly what surrendering part of the gas field to Hezbollah was supposed to prevent.
- “The proposal for this point involves recognizing it as part of Lebanon, with UN forces deployed there as a neutral party for both sides.” — The Jerusalem Post, September 8, 2024.
- United Nations forces are absolutely useless and pull back whenever there’s any conflict. (Nor is the UN remotely neutral.)
- Hezbollah will claim any territory it gets and attack anyway because that is what Islamic terrorists do. Hezbollah is backed by Iran. It’s going to attack when Tehran tells it to. As an Islamic terror group, attacking non-Muslims and dominating them is a fundamental religious obligation. So making deals with it won’t work.
- Just like making deals with Hamas doesn’t work.
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Important Takeaways:
- The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced early Sunday morning local time that it had launched a preemptive strike on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon to thwart a major imminent attack by the Iran-backed terror group.
- Residents of northern Israel were advised to enter bomb shelters and “safe rooms” in their homes in anticipation of a response by Hezbollah. Israel’s missile defense system, notably the Iron Dome, was said to be intercepting rockets.
- Israel’s Army Radio reported that residents were being advised to take shelter even in cities relatively far from the northern border, such as the port city of Haifa, which is in the north of the country but typically safe from rockets.
- In a statement in Hebrew, IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that the military had detected that Hezbollah was about to fire a large barrage of rockets and missiles into Israel. Therefore, he said, the Israel Air Force (IAF) had taken preemptive action. A response was expected from Hezbollah, and therefore he said that residents of the north should enter safe rooms for at least ten minutes. He stressed that Israel’s defenses were “not hermetic.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Israel’s military reported an airstrike hitting a weapons warehouse near a Hamas military site in Gaza City, as well as strikes that killed militants in central Gaza.
- Another round of airstrikes targeted more than 10 areas in southern Lebanon overnight, the Israel Defense Forces said Thursday. Those attacks were aimed at locations used by the Hezbollah militant group, the IDF said.
- U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke Wednesday about efforts by the United States to support Israel “against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, to include ongoing defensive U.S. military deployments,” according to a White House statement.
- Negotiators from the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Israel are expected to meet in the coming days in Cairo to try to push forward the process of achieving a cease-fire that would include a halt in fighting and the release of hostages still held by Hamas.
- Netanyahu’s office said Wednesday that Israel insists on achieving all of its goals for the war, including ensuring that Hamas cannot pose a security threat to Israel.
- Hamas on Wednesday reiterated its core demands, which include Israel fully withdrawing from Gaza.
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Important Takeaways:
- Hezbollah has launched dozens of rockets at the occupied Golan Heights after Israeli aircraft struck deep inside Lebanon, as fears of an all-out war grow.
- The Israeli military said it hit Hezbollah weapons storage facilities in the Bekaa Valley overnight. The Lebanese health ministry said one person was killed and 30 others injured.
- In response, Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran, said it targeted Israeli military positions in the Golan with a rocket barrage. Israeli authorities said two homes were hit and one person was injured.
- Meanwhile, the Palestinian Fatah movement accused Israel of assassinating a senior member of its armed wing in Lebanon in an effort to ignite a regional conflict.
- The Israeli military said it had killed Khalil al-Makdah in a strike in the southern port city of Sidon because he was operating on behalf of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and was involved in directing attacks in and smuggling weapons to the occupied West Bank.
- Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops on Tuesday that the military’s “center of gravity” was gradually shifting from Gaza and to the Lebanese border.
- “Attacking munitions warehouses in Lebanon is preparation for anything that might happen,” he noted.
- In response to the strikes, Hezbollah said it had launched a barrage of rockets towards an IDF logistics base in the Golan Heights.
- The IDF said about 50 projectiles had been launched from Lebanon and that some had fallen in the settlement of Katzrin.
- “The IDF and ISA will constantly continue to take action to monitor and thwart activity that endangers the safety of the State of Israel and its citizens, in order to expose and impair Iranian attempts to carry out terrorist activity,” they added.
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Important Takeaways:
- Some see God’s divine intervention in an earthquake that struck southern Syria and Lebanon on the very day as an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel was anticipated.
- Israel has been bracing for an attack by Iran and its proxy Hezbollah ever since the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran on July 31.
- Some have felt the delay in a response may have been because the Islamic State wanted to wait for the Tisha B’Av, or the 9th of Av on the Jewish lunar calendar, which began on Monday evening and continued until nightfall on Tuesday.
- However, the Associated Press reported that a 5.5 magnitude earthquake struck the city of Hama at 11:56 p.m. local time Monday night. The official Syria state news outlet said it was a 4.8 magnitude quake. Aftershocks continued into Tuesday morning.
- “In Damascus and Beirut — the capital of neighboring Lebanon, where the earthquake was also felt — residents descended to the streets fearing a stronger quake that would collapse buildings,” according to the AP.
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Important Takeaways:
- Within the last month, nearly all major Western and international airlines have announced suspensions and cancelations of their service to both Tel Aviv and Beirut. This also as foreign nationals have scrambled to get out of both countries, given ongoing fears of the outbreak of bigger regional war involving Iran and Hezbollah attacking Israel.
- While American Airlines was among the many carriers announcing temporary pauses in service, it has just issued a surprising lengthy extension to this suspension in flights. On Friday, the Fort Worth-based company announced it doesn’t plan to resume flights to Tel Aviv until April 2025.
- This is a longer cancelation than any other airline, including in all of Europe, so far as a result of the Gaza war and related fears of regional escalation and spillover.
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Important Takeaways:
- As Iran threatens to respond to the suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, the regional militias that the Islamic Republic has armed for decades could play a role in any attack.
- Iran relies on militias as an asymmetric threat to squeeze both Israel and the United States.
- Iran’s arming began in earnest in the 1980s with Shiite forces in Lebanon fighting against Israel. They became the Hezbollah militia.
- The arming expanded with the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein, a longtime foe of Tehran.
- Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard is one of the most powerful armed groups in the Middle East.
- The militias in Iran’s self-described “Axis of Resistance” include: Iraqi militias, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Palestinian militant forces, Yemen’s Houthi rebels
- The Houthis follow the Shiite Zaydi faith, a branch of Shiite Islam that is almost exclusively found in Yemen. The rebels claim they’ve recruited 200,000 additional fighters since launching their attacks.
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Important Takeaways:
- Sources said Blinken indicated that while the U.S. does not know the exact time of the attacks, they could begin as early as the next 24-48 hours.
- Blinken coordinated the call with U.S. allies in an effort to put as much last-minute diplomatic pressure as possible on Iran and Hezbollah to temper any potential retaliation against Israel, according to Axios. Sources say Blinken emphasized the importance of preventing an all-out war.
- Blinken allegedly indicated that the United States is prepared for retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah in response to the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and military commander Fuad Shukr. But, he said, it is unclear what form the relation will take.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a meeting late Sunday with heads of the military and intelligence services, said Israel is determined to stand up to Iran “on every front and in every arena — near and far.”
- “Iran and its minions are looking to surround us in a stranglehold of terrorism … Whoever seeks to harm us will pay a very heavy price,” Netanyahu said ahead of the meeting.
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