Coordination on potential Israeli response to Iran continues between Jerusalem and Washington

Oil Storage Tanks

Important Takeaways:

  • The region has been tensely awaiting a promised Israeli reprisal for an October 1 massive ballistic missile attack by Iran, with Washington attempting to coordinate and temper Israel’s reaction.
  • “There were no big decisions” made by ministers, an Israeli source told The Times of Israel, adding “There is a desire from the Israelis to coordinate with the Americans” over the response, and that strategic discussions continue between the sides.
  • The Prime Minister’s Office also told The Times of Israel that Gallant’s trip to the US to discuss Israel’s response has yet to be approved
  • Jerusalem has pledged a significant retaliation, but Biden — who directed US forces to help thwart the Iranian attack — has expressed opposition to targeting Iran’s nuclear or oil production sites.
  • Tehran said to threaten West’s Arab allies if they assist Israeli strike

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Hezbollah is preparing for a long war of attrition in south Lebanon

site of Israeli air strike

Important Takeaways:

  • Hezbollah is preparing for a long war of attrition in south Lebanon, after Israel wiped out its top leadership, with a new military command directing rocket fire and the ground conflict, two sources familiar with its operations said.
  • Hezbollah has been diminished by three weeks of devastating Israeli blows – most notably the killing of its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
  • Friends and foes alike are now watching how effectively it resists Israeli troops that have crossed into Lebanon with the stated aim of driving it away from the border.
  • The Iran-backed group still has a considerable stockpile of weapons, including its most powerful precision missiles which it has yet to use, four sources familiar with its operations said, despite waves of airstrikes that Israel says has severely depleted its arsenal.
  • “The fact that the chain of command has been damaged does not take away the ability to shoot Israeli communities or try to hit” Israeli forces, Levine told Reuters, describing Hezbollah as “the same powerful terror army we all know.”
  • A statement this week signed by the “operations room of the Islamic Resistance” said fighters were resisting incursions and “watching and listening” to Israeli troops where they least expect it – an apparent reference to concealed Hezbollah positions.
  • Israel says it aims to secure the return of tens of thousands of people who evacuated northern Israel after Hezbollah began firing rockets a year ago in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza.

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Hezbollah is still without a new leader

deputy chief of Hezbollah Sheikh Naim Qassem

Important Takeaways:

  • Hezbollah is still without a new leader, nearly two weeks after its long-serving chief was killed in an Israeli strike and with its deputy head apparently unwilling to step into the role.
  • Hezbollah’s deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem—currently considered the organization’s top official—said in a video address streamed by Iranian news outlet Press TV on Tuesday that a new leader would be elected, suggesting he would not take up the mantle
  • Dahiyeh is described by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) as Hezbollah’s nerve center and de-facto base, and has come under heavy Israeli bombardment in recent weeks.
  • Hezbollah has many branches and commanders at varying levels, many of whom Israel has said it has killed.
  • Israel had reportedly targeted Safieddine late last week, but there had been no confirmation whether he had been killed.
  • As well as Nasrallah and Safieddine, other leading Hezbollah figures reported to have been killed include Ali Karaki, Ibrahim Aqeel and Fu’ad Shakar.
  • On Tuesday, Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to Israel’s northern border with Lebanon that Hezbollah “is an organization without a head,” adding that “Nasrallah was eliminated, his replacement was probably also eliminated.”
  • On Tuesday, the IDF said it had killed Suhail Hussein Husseini, described by the Israeli military as the commander of Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut.

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Biden, Netanyahu phone call to discuss Israeli plans for retaliatory strike on Iran

Biden on call with Netanyahu

Important Takeaways:

  • The call, under way late Wednesday morning U.S. time, was the leaders’ first known chat since August and coincided with a sharp escalation of Israel’s conflict with both Iran and the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah with no sign of an imminent ceasefire to end the conflict with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza.
  • The Middle East has been on edge awaiting Israel’s response to a missile attack last week that Tehran carried out in retaliation for Israel’s military escalation in Lebanon.
  • The Iranian attack ultimately killed no one in Israel and Washington called it ineffective.
  • Netanyahu has promised that arch-foe Iran will pay for its missile attack, while Tehran has said any retaliation would be met with vast destruction, raising fears of a wider war in the oil-producing region which could draw in the United States.
  • Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant canceled a Wednesday visit to the Pentagon, the Pentagon said, as Israeli media reported Netanyahu wanted first to speak with Biden.
  • Israel has faced calls by the United States and other allies to accept a ceasefire deal in Gaza and Lebanon but has said it will continue its military operations until Israelis are safe.

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Hezbollah pelted Haifa with rockets on Tuesday in the heaviest attack yet

Iron Dome intercepts rockets

Important Takeaways:

  • Hezbollah pelted Haifa with rockets on Tuesday in the heaviest attack yet on the northern Israeli port city, as the Lebanese terror group insisted its military capabilities “were fine” despites weeks of devastating IDF strikes.
  • More than 100 rockets were fired at the city within half an hour around midday.
  • Most of the rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome system, although some got through, exploding in the Haifa suburbs of Kiryat Yam and Kiryat Motzkin, security services said.
  • The blue skies above the city were filled with white trails of the interceptor rockets rising to meet the incoming barrages, and explosions mushroomed above Haifa as sirens wailed and thousands of Israelis ran for bomb shelters.
  • The salvos came as the IDF announced that it was carrying out strikes against Hezbollah targets in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
  • The large-scale attack also came moments after Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem, one of the last surviving members of the group’s top leadership, insisted that Hezbollah’s military capabilities were intact, that it had increased its rocket fire on Israel, and that it was itching for “clashes” with Israeli troops in Lebanon.
  • He said Hezbollah’s top leadership was directing the war and that the commanders killed by Israel had been replaced. “We have no vacant posts,” he added.
  • Qassem also said that Hezbollah supports efforts to reach a ceasefire for Lebanon, but for the first time omitted any mention of a Gaza truce deal as a precondition to halting his group’s fire on Israel.
  • “In any case, after the issue of a ceasefire takes shape, and once diplomacy can achieve it, all of the other details can be discussed and decisions can be made,” he said. “If the enemy (Israel) continues its war, then the battlefield will decide.”

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Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel’s third largest city Haifa on Monday as Israeli forces poised to expand ground raids into south Lebanon

Hezbollah fires rockets

Important Takeaways:

  • Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel’s third largest city Haifa on Monday as Israeli forces looked poised to expand ground raids into south Lebanon on the first anniversary of the Gaza war, which has spread conflict across the Middle East.
  • Iran-backed Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, the Palestinian militant group fighting Israel in Gaza, said it targeted a military base south of Haifa with “Fadi 1” missiles and launched another strike on Tiberias, 65 km (40 miles) away.
  • Hezbollah said it targeted areas north of Haifa in a second salvo of missiles later in the day.
  • The military said the air force was carrying out extensive bombings of Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon, and that two Israeli soldiers were killed in border-area combat, taking the military death toll inside Lebanon so far to 11.
  • It said it also carried out a targeted strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where a thick plume of smoke could be seen.
  • The spiraling conflict has raised concerns that the United States, Israel’s superpower ally, and Iran will be sucked into a wider war in the oil-producing Middle East.
  • The Gaza war has given rise to a multi-front Middle East conflict, drawing in Iran’s broader “Axis of Resistance” – Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, Iraqi militia groups – and sparking several rare, direct confrontations between Israel and Iran.

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Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran and its regional allies will not back down against Israel

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Important Takeaways:

  • Supreme leader defends Iran’s attack on Israel as ‘legitimate’, and calls on Muslim countries to unite.
  • “The resistance in the region will not back down even with the killing of its leaders,” Khamenei said, calling Iran’s attack on Israel “legal and legitimate”.
  • “The operations were … in return for the heinous crimes committed by this bloodthirsty criminal entity,” he said.
  • He said Iran would fulfill its “duty” to allies in a considered manner.
  • It was the supreme leader’s first such sermon in more than four years, coming just before the first anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel
  • Iran’s proxies in its “axis of resistance” – Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis and armed groups in Iraq – have carried out attacks in the region in support of the Palestinians in the Gaza war.
  • Addressing massive crowds, Khamenei issued a rallying call to Muslim nations – “from Afghanistan to Yemen, from Iran to Gaza and Lebanon” – saying they should unite against common “enemy” Israel, which he claimed had deployed “psychological”, “economic” and “military” warfare against them.
  • Early on Friday, Israel hit Beirut with a barrage of attacks reportedly targeting senior Hezbollah figure Hashem Safieddine, a putative successor to Nasrallah.

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Israel’s military told residents in south Lebanon to evacuate immediately

Evacuate Lebanon

Important Takeaways:

  • Israel’s military told residents of more than 20 towns in south Lebanon to evacuate their homes immediately on Thursday as it pressed on with cross-border incursions and struck Hezbollah targets in a suburb of Beirut.
  • Hezbollah also carried out new strikes, targeting what it called Israel’s “Sakhnin base” for military industries in Haifa Bay on the Mediterranean coast of northern Israel with a salvo of rockets.
  • Israel says the aim of its operations in Lebanon is to allow tens of thousands of its citizens displaced from northern Israel by Hezbollah bombardments during the Gaza war to return home safely
  • In Beirut’s southern suburb known as Dahiye, a dense neighborhood where Hezbollah holds sway, several explosions were heard on Thursday and several large plumes of smoke were rising after heavy Israeli strikes.
  • Hezbollah said it detonated a bomb against Israeli forces infiltrating a southern Lebanese village and attacked Israeli forces near the border.
  • Overnight, Israel bombed central Beirut in an attack the Lebanese health ministry said killed nine people.
  • The United States has said Iran will face “severe consequences” and that it would work with Israel, while warning Iran not to act against U.S. forces in the region.
  • A growing number of countries were evacuating citizens from Beirut as governments worldwide urged their citizens to get out.

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Israeli officials say all options will be on the table

Exploded projectile Gedera-\ Israel

Important Takeaways:

  • Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening up a new and far more dangerous front in the war that has engulfed the Middle East.
  • Iran threatened on Tuesday that if Israel responds with force to the nearly 200 missiles it launched on Tuesday, it will attack again.
  • If that happens, Israeli officials say all options will be on the table – including strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
  • Many Israeli officials point to Iran’s oil facilities as a likely target, but some say targeted assassinations and taking out Iran’s air defense systems are also possibilities.
  • “The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. They will understand. We will stand by the rule we established: whoever attacks us, we will attack him,” Netanyahu said.

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Eight Israeli soldiers have been killed inside Lebanon; Hezbollah declared it was ‘only the first round’

IDF Chief: We have capabilities to reach and strike any point in the Middle East

Important Takeaways:

  • Eight Israeli soldiers have been killed amid intense clashes in southern Lebanon after commando units were ambushed by Hezbollah fighters earlier today, the IDF has revealed.
  • News of the losses came as Hezbollah declared it was ‘only the first round’ of its fight against Israel, while the IDF released video footage showing its special forces carrying out the invasion for the first time.
  • Hezbollah’s media officer Mohammad Afif sought to dispel speculation that the Lebanese militant outfit had been weakened by ongoing Israeli attacks
  • ‘Our forces and resistance are fully prepared to confront and resist the enemy. I tell everyone that the resistance is fine and the command and control system is fine,’ Afif declared.
  • ‘What happened today in Misgav Am, Maroun al-Ras and Adaisseh today is only the beginning,’ Afif said.
  • Meanwhile, Israel’s military is preparing a response to yesterday’s shocking attack by Iran that saw nearly 200 ballistic missiles streak across the Middle East and rain down on Israel last night.

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