Important Takeaways:

• Of all the winners and losers from Syria’s sudden change of power, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stands out as among those with the most to gain.
• Erdogan’s clout over his southern neighbor has increased dramatically with the fall of his one-time friend Bashar al-Assad, bolstering his political standing at home and in the international arena.
• The question now is whether Erdogan can convert his new clout into meeting long-held policy objectives — and if the Trump administration will help or hinder him.
• Turkey has already urged disparate opposition forces to work for a reunified Syria, while Turkey-backed rebels wasted no time in pushing out Kurdish forces from two northern towns to the west of the Euphrates River.
• But that risks running into US opposition.
• Kurdish forces allied with the US played a critical role in defeating Islamic State in Syria, yet Turkey regards them as terrorists and a threat to its unity because they are affiliated with the separatist Kurdish group, the PKK, which is waging a war for autonomy in Turkey’s southeast.
• The way Trump decides to handle the PKK presence in Syria will be decisive in how his administration’s relations with Ankara evolve, according to Turkish officials familiar with Erdogan’s strategy who asked not to be named discussing sensitive security matters.

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