Tag Archives: Britain

Britain calls for 800 foreign butchers to avoid pig cull

By Guy Faulconbridge

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain will offer six-month emergency visas to 800 foreign butchers to avoid a mass pig cull, it said on Thursday, after farmers complained that an exodus of workers from abattoirs and meat processors had left the pork sector fighting for survival.

A combination of Brexit and COVID-19 has sparked an exodus of east European workers, leaving some 120,000 pigs in barns and fields across the country waiting to be slaughtered, according to the National Pig Association.

Environment Secretary George Eustice said the temporary visas would address the problem which farmers said was putting livelihoods at risk and causing animal welfare issues.

“What we’re going to do is allow butchers in abattoirs and meat processors dealing with pigs, to be able to come in on a temporary basis under the Seasonal Worker scheme for up to six months,” Eustice told reporters.

“That will help us to deal with the backlog of pigs that we currently have on farms to give those meat processors the ability to slaughter more pigs.”

Eustice said around 800 butchers would be needed to clear the backlog and announced private storage aid to help abattoirs store meat.

But he said the government had decided not to ease the English language requirement for skilled visas to allow more butchers to come via that route – a key demand from farmers, who have been calling for weeks for ministers to take action.

“The industry had asked us to look at the language requirement on the skills route,” he said. “We have looked at that but we don’t think that provides an answer to their particular challenge. And that’s why we decided instead to have temporary visas.”

The lack of butchers is just one of a number of areas where Britain is facing acute labor shortages.

Last month, it announced plans to issue temporary visas for 5,000 foreign truck drivers and 5,500 poultry workers, but the government wants businesses to invest in a British workforce rather than rely on cheap foreign labor.

Ministers have also been keen to downplay suggestions that Britain’s exit from the European Union was the main issue hitting labor in the supply chains.

Many workers in the pig industry had gone home during the pandemic and simply not returned, Eustice said.

“It’s a complex picture: there have been lots of market disruptions, problems with access to the Chinese market, maybe some overproduction – here production is up by about 7% – and yes, labor has been an aggravating factor but it’s not been the only factor,” Eustice said.

“The pig industry, and in common with many parts of the food industry, has seen a loss of staff as many of the EU citizens that they relied on left during the pandemic – nothing to do with Brexit.”

As part of the measures to address the problem with the lack of lorry drivers, he said cabotage rules for EU drivers would be relaxed so that they could do as many trips as they liked over a two-week period.

(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; editing by Michael Holden and Nick Macfie)

British gas pumps still dry, pig cull fears grow

By Andrew MacAskill and James Davey

LONDON (Reuters) -Many British gas stations were still dry on Friday after a chaotic week that saw panic-buying, fights at the pumps and drivers hoarding fuel in water bottles after an acute shortage of truck drivers strained supply chains to breaking point.

Shortages of workers in the wake of Brexit and the COVID pandemic have sown disarray through some sectors of the economy, disrupting deliveries of fuel and medicines and leaving up to 150,000 pigs backed up on farms.

British ministers have for days insisted the crisis is abating or even over, though retailers said more than 2,000 gas stations were dry and Reuters reporters across London and southern England said dozens of pumps were still closed.

Queues of often irate drivers snaked back from those gas stations that were still open in London.

“I am completely, completely fed up. Why is the country not ready for anything?” said Ata Uriakhil, a 47-year-old taxi driver from Afghanistan who was first in a line of more than 40 cars outside a closed supermarket petrol station in Richmond.

“When is it going to end?,” Uriakhil said. “The politicians are not capable of doing their jobs properly. The government should have been prepared for this crisis. It is just incompetence.”

Uriakhil said he had lost about 20% of his normal earnings this week because he has been waiting for fuel rather than picking up customers.

The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA) said members reported on Friday that 26% of pumps were dry, 27% had just one fuel type in stock and 47% had enough petrol and diesel.

“Independents, which total 65% of the entire network, are not receiving enough deliveries of fuel compared with other sectors such as supermarkets,” Gordon Balmer, executive director of the Petrol Retail Association, told Reuters.

Ministers say the world is facing a global shortage of truck drivers and that they are working to ease the crisis. They deny that the situation is a consequence of an exodus of EU workers following Britain’s departure from the bloc, and have dismissed concerns the country is heading towards a “winter of discontent” of shortages and power cuts.

Though there are shortages of truck drivers in other countries, EU members have not seen fuel shortages.

After a shortage of truckers triggered panic buying at gas stations, farmers are now warning that a shortage of butchers and abattoir workers could force a mass cull of up to 150,000 pigs.

EU PIGS?

Britain’s pig industry implored retailers to continue buying local pork and not cheaper EU products, saying businesses would go bust and livestock would be culled if producers were not given immediate support.

The weekly slaughter of pigs has dropped by 25% since August after the pandemic and Britain’s post-Brexit immigration rules combined to hit an industry already struggling for workers, leading to a now acute shortage of butchers and slaughterers.

“As a result of the labor supply issues in pork processing plants, we currently have an estimated 120,000 pigs backed up on UK pig farms that should have gone to slaughter,” the National Pig Association said in a letter to retailers.

“The only option for some will be to cull pigs on farm.”

The meat processing industry has long struggled to find enough workers but it has been hit by the departure of many eastern European workers who returned home due to Brexit and COVID-19.

The pig association said that despite attempts to persuade the government to ease immigration rules, it appeared to have reached an impasse. Britain recently changed tack to allow some international workers to come in for three months to drive trucks and fill gaps in the poultry sector.

(Additional reporting by Costas Pitas, Kate Holton, James Davey and Sarah Young; Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Andy Bruce, Angus MacSwan and Alison Williams)

Imminent UK border changes could add to trucker problems, industry group says

LONDON (Reuters) – Changes to Britain’s border rules this week which prevent European Union ID cards from being accepted as proof of identity could compound existing issues for freight entering the United Kingdom, a global road transport body said.

Under new immigration rules which come into force on Oct. 1 as part of post-Brexit measures to end freedom of movement, EU nationals will need a passport to enter the United Kingdom.

The International Road Transport Union (IRU) said that, despite working closely with the British government to inform haulers, some drivers were likely to be caught out.

“Aside from not seeing the real benefits of adding this layer of bureaucracy, and potentially affecting already difficult border freight flows post Brexit, we are also concerned that passports are generally more expensive than ID cards,” said Raluca Marian, IRU EU Advocacy Director.

“UK authorities need to implement the change from Friday respecting professional drivers, without unnecessary bureaucracy or causing border or supply chain disruptions that would compound the serious supply chain issues already being seen in the UK due to driver shortages.”

The Home Office, the government department that administers immigration policy, said ID cards are some of the “most insecure and abused documents,” and the haulage industry has had almost a year to prepare for the changes.

This comes as Britain struggles with a shortage of tens of thousands of truck drivers which has led to severe supply chain issues, with fuel stations running empty in recent days after a spate of panic-buying.

Britain left the EU’s single market at the beginning of 2021, creating a full customs border with the bloc. However, London did not immediately bring in import checks on goods entering Britain to give businesses time to adjust amid concern they would lead to delays.

Earlier this month, the government said those checks would now not be introduced until next year, citing the COVID pandemic as the reason.

(Reporting by Michael Holden. Editing by Andrew MacAskill)

Britain has 10 days to save Christmas, retail sector says

By James Davey, Victor Jack and Kylie MacLellan

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain’s retail industry warned the government on Friday that unless it moves to alleviate an acute shortage of truckers in the next 10 days then significant disruption was inevitable in the run-up to Christmas.

As the world’s fifth-largest economy emerges from COVID-19 lockdowns, a spike in European natural gas prices and a post-Brexit shortage of truck drivers have left Britain grappling with soaring energy prices and a potential food supply crunch.

BP had to close some of its gas stations due to the driver shortages while queues formed at some Shell stations as pumps ran dry in some places. ExxonMobil’s Esso said a small number of its 200 Tesco Alliance retail sites had also been impacted in some way.

In a rush to fill up, drivers also queued at some gas stations in London and the southern English county of Kent. Diesel ran out at one station visited by Reuters.

For months supermarkets, processors and farmers have warned that a shortage of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers was straining supply chains to breaking point – making it harder to get goods on to shelves.

“Unless new drivers are found in the next 10 days, it is inevitable that we will see significant disruption in the run-up to Christmas,” said Andrew Opie, director of food & sustainability at the British Retail Consortium, the retail industry’s lobby group.

“HGV drivers are the glue which hold our supply chains together,” Opie said. “Without them, we are unable to move goods from farms to warehouses to shops.”

The next 10 days are crucial because retailers ramp up supplies in October to ensure there are enough goods for the peak Christmas season.

Hauliers and logistics companies cautioned that there were no quick fixes and that any change to testing or visas would likely be too late to alleviate the pre-Christmas shortages as retailers stockpile months ahead.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government has insisted that there will be no return to the 1970s when Britain was cast by allies as the “sick man of Europe” with three-day weeks, energy shortages and rampant inflation.

‘DON’T PANIC’

As ministers urged the public not to panic buy, some of Britain’s biggest supermarkets have warned that the shortage of truck drivers could lead to just that ahead of Christmas.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro said that Johnson, whom he met in New York, had asked him for an “emergency” agreement to supply a food product that is lacking in Britain, though the British embassy disputed Bolsonaro’s account.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said there was a global shortage of truckers after COVID halted lorry driver testing so Britain was doubling the number of tests. Asked if the government would ease visa rules, he said the government would look at all options.

“We’ll do whatever it takes,” Shapps told Sky News. “We’ll move heaven and earth to do whatever we can to make sure that shortages are alleviated with HGV drivers.

“We should see it smooth out fairly quickly,” he said.

British ministers are due to meet later on Friday in an attempt to hash out a fix.

TRUCKER VISA?

The trucking industry body, the Road Haulage Association (RHA), has called on the government to allow short-term visas for international drivers to enter Britain and fill the gap, while British drivers are being trained for the future.

“It’s an enormous challenge,” Rod McKenzie, head of policy at the RHA, told Reuters. In the short-term, he said, international drivers could help, even if it may be too late to help Christmas, and in the longer term the industry needed better pay and conditions to attract workers.

“It’s a tough job. We the British do not help truckers in the way that Europeans and Americans do by giving them decent facilities,” he said.

The British haulage industry says it needs around 100,000 more drivers after 25,000 returned to Europe before Brexit and the pandemic halted the qualification process for new workers.

Shapps, who said the driver shortage was not due to Brexit, said COVID-19 exacerbated the problem given that Britain was unable to test 40,000 drivers during lockdowns.

(Additional reporting by Gerhard Mey, Kate Holton, Michael Holden and Paul Sandle; Writing by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Toby Chopra nd Nick Macfie)

Don’t panic buy, Britain tells consumers as BP shuts gas stations

By Guy Faulconbridge, James Davey and Kate Holton

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil giant BP said on Thursday it was having to temporarily close some petrol filling stations in Britain because of a lack of truck drivers, hours after a junior minister cautioned the public not to panic buy amid fears of food shortages.

Small Business Minister Paul Scully said Britain was not heading back into a 1970’s-style “winter of discontent” of strikes and power shortages amid widespread problems caused by supply chain issues.

Soaring wholesale European natural gas prices have sent shockwaves through energy, chemicals and steel producers, and strained supply chains which were already creaking due to insufficient labor and the tumult of Brexit.

After gas prices triggered a carbon dioxide shortage, Britain was forced to extend emergency state support to avert a shortage of poultry and meat.

Tesco, Britain’s biggest supermarket group, told government officials last week the dearth of truck drivers would lead to panic-buying in the run-up to Christmas if no action was taken.

Supermarket shelves of carbonated drinks and water were left empty in some places and turkey producers have warned that families could be left without their traditional turkey lunch at Christmas if the carbon dioxide shortage continues.

In a further sign of worsening supply chain dislocation, BP temporarily closed some of its 1,200 UK petrol stations due to a lack of both unleaded and diesel grades, which it blamed on driver shortages.

ExxonMobil’s Esso said a small number of its 200 Tesco Alliance retail sites had also been impacted.

“There is no need for people to go out and panic buy,” Scully told Times Radio.

“Look, this isn’t a 1970s thing at all,” he said when asked if Britain was heading back into a winter of discontent – a reference to the 1978-79 winter when inflation and industrial action left the economy in chaos.

The Bank of England said inflation would temporarily rise above 4% for the first time in a decade later this year, largely due to energy and goods prices.

A Tesco spokesperson said the group currently had good availability though it said the shortage of HGV drivers had led to “some distribution challenges.” A spokesperson for No. 2 player Sainsbury’s said “availability in some product categories may vary but alternatives are available.” Supermarkets and farmers have called on Britain to ease shortages of labor in key areas – particularly of truckers, processing and picking – which have strained the food supply chain.

LABOR CRUNCH

The trucking industry needs another 90,000 drivers to meet demand after Brexit made it harder for European workers to drive in Britain and the pandemic prevented new workers from qualifying.

“My business has about 100 HGV drivers short, and that is making it increasingly very, very difficult to service our shops,” said Richard Walker, managing director at supermarket Iceland, adding that deliveries were being cancelled.

“It is a concern and as we look to build stock as an industry, to work towards our bumper time of year, Christmas, we’re now facing this shortage at the worst possible time. I am worried.”

The National Farmers’ Union has written to Prime Minister Boris Johnson asking him to urgently introduce a new visa system to help tackle labor shortages across the supply chain.

COAL POWER?

The rise in natural gas prices is adding to the sense of chaos. Six energy suppliers have gone out of business this month, leaving nearly 1.5 million customers facing a rise in bills.

Just over a month before Johnson hosts world leaders at a United Nations climate conference, known as COP26, power generator Drax Group Plc said it could keep its coal-fired power plants operating beyond their planned closure next year.

Britain is having talks with the energy regulator Ofgem about whether or not a cap on gas and electricity prices for consumers may have to go up, Scully said.

The cap was brought in to stop energy companies gouging consumers but has now turned their businesses unprofitable as it is below the wholesale price.

Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng told parliament the government would not bail out failed energy companies and would not offer grants or subsidies to larger energy companies.

(Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge, Kate Holton, James Davey and Michael Holden; editing by Angus MacSwan, Elaine Hardcastle and Nick Macfie)

The third man: UK charges another Russian for nerve attack on double agent

By Michael Holden

LONDON (Reuters) -British police said on Tuesday a third Russian had been charged in absentia with the 2018 Novichok murder attempt on former double agent Sergei Skripal, saying they could also now confirm the three suspects were military intelligence operatives.

The attack on Skripal, who sold Russian secrets to Britain, caused one of the biggest rows between Russia and the West since the Cold War, leading to the tit-for-tat expulsion of dozens of diplomats after Britain pointed the finger of blame at Moscow.

Russia has rejected any involvement, casting the accusations as anti-Russian propaganda.

Skripal and his daughter Yulia were found unconscious, slumped on a public bench in the southern English city of Salisbury in March 2018. They and a police officer who went to his house were left critically ill in hospital from exposure to the military-grade nerve agent.

A woman later also died from Novichok poisoning after her partner found a counterfeit perfume bottle which police believe had been used to smuggle the poison into the country.

In September 2018, British prosecutors charged two Russians, then identified by the aliases Alexander Petrov and Ruslan Boshirov, with conspiracy to murder Skripal and the attempted murder of Yulia and the officer, Nick Bailey.

Dean Haydon, Britain’s Senior National Coordinator for Counter Terrorism Policing, said prosecutors had now authorized them to charge a third man, Sergey Fedotov, who was aged about 50, with the same offences.

Haydon also said Petrov and Boshirov were really named Alexander Mishkin and Anatoliy Chepiga, and Fedotov’s true name was Denis Sergeev. All three were believed to be in Russia, he said. Britain has no extradition treaty with Russia, and Moscow has so far refused to hand over Petrov and Boshirov.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office said the issue would be raised with the Russian ambassador to London.

Russians “should recognize that our sense that justice must be done is not abated,” Johnson told Sky News in an interview while on a trip to the United States.

The Russian foreign ministry said Britain was using the poisoning to stoke anti-Russian sentiment.

‘DANGEROUS INDIVIDUALS’

The Skripal suspects were a three-man GRU team which had carried out operations on behalf of the Russian state in other countries, and there had been discussions with Bulgaria and the Czech Republic, Haydon said.

“We can’t go into the detail of how, but we have the evidence that links them to the GRU,” Haydon told reporters, the first time police had categorically identified them as Russian spies. “All three of them are dangerous individuals.”

As with the other two Russians, British police had obtained an arrest warrant for Fedotov and they were applying for Interpol notices against him, he said.

The police announcement came on the same day that the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Russia was responsible for the 2006 killing of ex-KGB officer Alexander Litvinenko, who was poisoned at a London hotel with Polonium 210, a rare radioactive isotope.

British police say Petrov and Boshirov carried out the Skripal attack, while Fedotov met them several times over the weekend of March 2-4 when the poisoning occurred.

After they were accused by Britain, Boshirov and Petrov appeared on Russian TV to say they were tourists who had travelled to Salisbury to do some sightseeing.

“There’s the famous Salisbury Cathedral. It’s famous not only in Europe, but in the whole world. It’s famous for its 123 meter-spire,” Boshirov said.

(additional reporting by Elizabeth Piper and Kylie MacLellan; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Peter Graff)

UK meat industry warns of imminent supply threat from CO2 crisis

By James Davey

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain’s meat processors will start running out of carbon dioxide (CO2) within five days, forcing them to halt production and impacting supplies to retailers, the industry’s lobby group warned on Monday.

A jump in gas prices has forced several domestic energy suppliers out of business and has shut fertilizer plants that also make CO2 as a by-product of their production process.

The CO2 gas is used to stun animals before slaughter, in the vacuum packing of food products to extend their shelf life, and to put the fizz into beer, cider and soft drinks. CO2’s solid form is dry ice, which is used in food deliveries.

The CO2 crisis has compounded an acute shortage of truck drivers in the UK, which has been blamed on the impact of COVID-19 and Brexit.

“My members are saying anything between five, 10 and 15 days supply (remain),” Nick Allen of the British Meat Processors Association told Sky News.

With no CO2, a meat processor cannot operate, he said.

“The animals have to stay on farm. They’ll cause farmers on the farm huge animal welfare problems and British pork and British poultry will disappear off the shelves,” Allen said.

“We’re two weeks away from seeing some real impacts on the shelves,” he said, adding that poultry could start disappearing from shops even sooner.

Allen said the government was working to try and resolve the issue and might be able to persuade fertilizer producer CF Industries to re-start its UK plants.

Business minister Kwasi Kwarteng said he met CF Industries CEO Tony Will on Sunday to explore ways to secure CO2 supplies.

“Work is ongoing … to ensure that those sectors which are impacted by this … have appropriate contingency plans in place to ensure that there is minimal disruption,” he told parliament.

Meanwhile, the British Soft Drinks Association warned some manufacturers had only a few days of CO2 left.

UNHAPPY CHRISTMAS?

Some in the poultry industry fear a Christmas crisis.

Ranjit Singh Boparan, owner of 2 Sisters Food Group and Bernard Matthews, said the CO2 issue was “a massive body blow”, noting that the supply of turkeys this Christmas was already compromised by labor shortages.

Shares in processor Cranswick, whose products include fresh pork and chicken and gourmet sausages, fell 4% after it said production could be halted.

The crisis is also having a more immediate impact.

Online supermarket group Ocado said it had temporarily reduced the number of lines it is able to deliver from its frozen range. Dry ice is used to keep items frozen during delivery. Ocado shares fell 1.6%.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC), which represents retailers including the major supermarket groups, said the CO2 shortage had compounded existing pressures on production and distribution.

“… it is vital that government takes immediate action to prioritize suppliers and avoid significant disruption to food supplies,” said Andrew Opie, the BRC’s director of food and sustainability.

Britain’s National Farmers Union said it was concerned about the shortages of fertilizer and CO2.

“We’re aware of the added strain this puts on a food supply chain already under significant pressure due to lack of labor,” NFU vice president Tom Bradshaw said.

Britain’s big four supermarket groups – market leader Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons declined to comment.

(Reporting by James Davey; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Jason Neely, Gareth Jones and Alexander Smith)

Britain says China’s BGI must register prenatal tests by Sept 1

By Reuters Staff

LONDON (Reuters) – China’s largest gene company BGI Group must register its prenatal test with local regulators by Sept. 1 if it wants to keep offering products in Britain, a minister said on Thursday.

A Reuters report found BGI Group developed the tests in collaboration with China’s military and uses them to collect genetic data from millions of women round the world.

However, BGI says it alone produced the NIFTY test, has never shared data for national security or defense purposes, and complies with European privacy laws. Reuters found no evidence BGI violated privacy agreements or regulations.

British junior health minister James Bethell said the British Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) expected BGI’s devices to need oversight before being placed on the local market.

“The MHRA understand BGI genetic screening tests are currently available for sale in the UK. These devices do not appear to have been registered with the MHRA at this time,” Bethell said in a written response to a question on BGI’s tests from a member of Britain’s upper chamber of parliament.

“However, due to their risk classification, registration will be required from 1 September 2021 in order to continue placing the products on the market.”

Bethell said there had been no specific assessment of BGI’s tests, but that neither the state-run National Health Service (NHS) nor the Public Health England (PHE) agency used its technology.

The tests have been available in some private clinics in England since at least 2014, however.

“There are no grounds to prevent BGI Groups operating in the UK provided they comply with UK legislation and regulatory requirements,” Bethell added.

In an emailed statement, BGI said it “strictly complies with local laws, guidelines, and protocols, while adhering to internationally recognized ethical and legal standards.”

Britain warns COVID-19 could infect half Myanmar in next two weeks

By Michelle Nichols

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Britain’s U.N. ambassador warned on Thursday that half of Myanmar’s 54 million people could be infected with COVID-19 in the next two weeks as Myanmar’s envoy called for U.N. monitors to ensure an effective delivery of vaccines.

Myanmar has been in chaos since the military ousted an elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi on Feb. 1, with protests and fighting between the army and newly formed militias. The United States, Britain and others have imposed sanctions on the military rulers over the coup and repression of pro-democracy protests in which hundreds have been killed.

“The coup has resulted in a near total collapse of the healthcare system, and health care workers are being attacked and arrested,” British U.N. Ambassador Barbara Woodward told an informal Security Council discussion on Myanmar.

“The virus is spreading through the population, very fast indeed. By some estimates, in the next two weeks, half of the population of Myanmar could be infected with COVID,” she said.

Myanmar state media reported on Wednesday that the military ruler is looking for greater cooperation with other countries to contain the coronavirus.

Infections in the Southeast Asian country have surged since June, with 4,980 cases and 365 deaths reported on Wednesday, according to health ministry data cited in media. Medics and funeral services put the toll much higher.

“In order to have smooth and effective COVID vaccination and providing humanitarian assistance, close-monitoring by the international community is essential,” Myanmar’s U.N. Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun, who speaks for the elected civilian government, told the Security Council discussion.

“As such, we would like to request the U.N. in particular the Security Council to urgently establish a U.N.-led monitoring mechanism for effective COVID vaccination and smooth delivery of humanitarian assistance,” he said.

Myanmar recently received two million more Chinese vaccines, but it was believed to have only vaccinated about 3.2% of its population, according to a Reuters tracker.

(Reporting by Michelle Nichols; editing by Grant McCool)

Britain reports highest deaths from COVID-19 since March as Johnson urges caution

By Alistair Smout and Paul Sandle

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain reported its highest number of deaths and people in hospital with coronavirus since March on Tuesday, with Prime Minister Boris Johnson urging caution despite a week of lower reported numbers of infection.

Britain reported 131 new deaths from COVID-19, the highest daily total since March 17, though it came after just 14 deaths were reported on Monday, suggesting the weekend might have impacted when deaths were reported.

The number of COVID-19 patients in British hospitals has also steadily risen to 5,918, also the highest since March, following a spike in cases earlier this month.

The number of new infections has fallen each day for the last seven days, though Johnson stressed the pandemic was not over.

“It is very, very important that we don’t allow ourselves to run away with premature conclusions about (lower case numbers),” Johnson told broadcasters, noting it would take a while for the lifting of restrictions in England to feed through to the data.

“People have got to remain very cautious and that remains the approach of the government.”

Johnson has lifted restrictions in England and is betting he can get one of Europe’s largest economies firing again because so many people are now vaccinated, a decision which marks a new chapter in the response to the novel coronavirus.

Imperial College epidemiologist Neil Ferguson said the effective end of Britain’s pandemic could be just months away as vaccines have so dramatically reduced the risk of hospitalization and death.

“We’re not completely out of the woods but the equation has fundamentally changed,” Ferguson, whose modelling of the virus’s likely spread at the outset of the pandemic in early 2020 alarmed governments across the world, told the BBC.

“I’m positive that by late September, October time we will be looking back at most of the pandemic.”

ON THE WAY DOWN

Johnson lifted COVID-19 restrictions in England on July 19. New daily cases in the current wave peaked two days earlier at 54,674 and have since fallen dramatically, to 23,511 new cases on Tuesday.

The closure of schools for summer, the end of the Euro 2020 soccer championships and warmer weather are among factors epidemiologists say might have reduced social mixing indoors and therefore cases, even as England’s economy has fully reopened.

Case numbers have been falling for longer in Scotland, where the recent peak in new infections was on July 1, than in England, corresponding to an earlier elimination from the Euros.

“Both of them seem to coincide in some ways with the end of activity in the Euro 2020 tournament,” Rowland Kao, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, told Reuters, adding that changes in testing patterns might mean that the sharpness of the drop is overstated in daily testing figures.

“(Cases) may go up again, because we’re only just going to be starting to see the effect of the complete release of restrictions associated with July 19 in England. So there may still be rises yet to come.”

Britain has one of the highest official fatality rates from COVID-19 in the world, with 129,303 deaths, but vaccinations and lockdowns have greatly slowed the rate since March.

Scotland’s National Clinical Director Jason Leitch said a gradual return to usual social activity would help smooth the end of the current wave, but that the next few weeks would be unpredictable.

“On the way down is always bumpier than the exponential rise on the way up,” he told Reuters.

(Reporting by Sarah Young and Alistair Smout; Additional reporting by Paul Sandle; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Janet Lawrence, Catherine Evans, William Maclean and Mike Harrison)