Tag Archives: Blizzard

Blizzard roars into U.S. Northeast, snarling travel

A lone visitor takes a picture near the brink of the ice covered Horseshoe Falls in Niagara Falls, Canada.

By Gina Cherelus and Scott Malone

NEW YORK/BOSTON (Reuters) – The first major winter storm of 2018 bore down on the U.S. Northeast on Thursday, closing schools and government offices and disrupting travel as work crews scrambled to clear roads of snow before plummeting temperatures turn it to treacherous ice.

After bringing rare snowfall to the southeast a day earlier, the storm carried rapid accumulation and high winds to New York, where subway systems appeared less crowded than usual as many commuters heeded officials’ warnings to stay home.

Blizzard warnings were in place along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, with the National Weather Service forecasting winds as high as 55 miles per hour (89 kph) that may bring down tree limbs and knock out power.

More than a foot (30 cm) of snow was forecast for Boston and coastal areas in northern New England.

The storm is the product of a rapid and rare plunge in barometric pressure that some weather forecasters are referring to as bombogenesis, or the so-called “bomb cyclone.”

The term comes from the merging of two words: bomb and cyclogenisis, according to private forecaster AccuWeather.

On Wednesday, the storm dumped snow on Florida’s capital Tallahassee for the first time in 30 years, and was expected to last through the day.

About 3,000 airline flights within, into or out of the United States were canceled ahead of the storm’s arrival on Thursday, with New York’s three major airports and Boston’s Logan International seeing as many as three out of four flights called off, according to tracking service FlightAware.com.

Federal government offices planned to delay opening for two hours on Thursday, while state officials in Connecticut and Massachusetts ordered non-essential workers to stay home. In Maine, Governor Paul LePage ordered state offices closed for the day.

“Travel conditions are expected to be treacherous,” LePage said in a statement. “Avoiding unnecessary travel will keep accidents to a minimum and allow state and municipal road crews to safely go about their work.”

The snow storm brought a break in extreme cold temperatures that have gripped much of the region since Christmas, frozen part of the Niagara Falls, played havoc with public works and impeded firefighting in places where temperatures barely broke 20 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 6 centigrade).

But forecasters warned temperatures would drop sharply on Friday and into the weekend. That left work crews scrambling to clear snow off roadways and sidewalks on Thursday before it freezes to ice and makes conditions more treacherous for pedestrians and drivers alike.

“These are tough conditions to move around in, so if you don’t need to be on the road … you shouldn’t,” said New York Mayor Bill de Blasio on Twitter. “Everyone needs to take this weather very seriously.”

Schools were ordered to close in New York, many parts of New Jersey, Boston and other cities through the region.

A woman walks down the street during a blizzard in Long Beach, New York, U.S. January 4, 2018.

A woman walks down the street during a blizzard in Long Beach, New York, U.S. January 4, 2018. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

SOUTHERN SNOW

Private forecaster AccuWeather said snow would fall quickly during the day, at a rate of several inches per hour, with the storm intensified by the bombogenesis effect.

The phenomenon occurs when a storm’s barometric pressure drops by 24 millibars in 24 hours. As a result, the accumulation of snow and winds intensifies, which can cause property damage and power outages.

More than 35,000 customers were without power in Georgia, North Carolina and Virginia early on Thursday, utilities reported online.

A part of US-13 at the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel in Virginia was closed due to high winds early on Thursday while state transportation departments throughout the region reported dozens of delays due to deteriorating roads conditions.

Late on Wednesday, a baggage car and two sleeper cars on an Amtrak train traveling from Miami to New York, with 311 passengers aboard, derailed as it was slowly backing into a station in Savannah, Georgia. No one was injured, an Amtrak spokesman said.

The cold has been blamed for at least nine deaths over the past few days, including those of two homeless people in Houston.

(Additional reporting by Brendan O’Brien; Editing by Alison Williams and Bernadette Baum)

Blizzard blows into northeast U.S.; flights canceled, schools shut

Cars are covered in snow in a general parking lot during the snowstorm at O'Hare International Airport in Chicago, Illinois, U.S., March 13, 2017. Some Chicagoland areas received up to 5 inches of snow, and more than 400 flights were cancelled at O'Hare. REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski

By Daniel Trotta and Scott Malone

NEW YORK/BOSTON (Reuters) – Snow piled up rapidly in parts of the northeastern United States on Tuesday as a blizzard began blowing in, with residents being advised to stay at home, airlines grounding flights and schools canceling classes.

The National Weather Service (NWS) warned some 50 million people from Pennsylvania to Maine of a “rapidly intensifying nor’easter” that was unusual for so late in the winter. Some could expect to find themselves surrounded by up to 2 feet (60 cm) of snow by early Wednesday, the federal agency predicted.

Governors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia declared states of emergency.

New York City was expected to escape the worst of it after the NWS withdrew its blizzard warning for the city on Tuesday morning, replacing it with a mere “winter weather advisory.” The service sharply reduced its snowfall forecast for the city to between 4 and 8 inches (10 and 20 cm).

Still, city life already was disrupted with many New Yorkers already planning to stay home with hard-won groceries picked up from crowded stores the night before.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo suspended above-ground portions of the city’s subway service and said the Metro-North commuter service to the suburbs would shut down at noon. Transit officials warned that more bus and train routes might be suspended throughout the day.

“Normally, with the geography of New York, we normally have it on the east side or the west side. But this is statewide,” Cuomo told MSNBC in an interview.

“We’ve been through this a number of times so we’re prepared for it. Airports are basically closed … Government is basically closed, schools are basically closed, so there’s no real reason to be on the roads and we made that clear yesterday.”

Some 2,000 members of the National Guard and 5,000 plows were deployed across the state, Cuomo said.

Workers clear frozen precipitation from a walkway at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., March 14, 2017. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Workers clear frozen precipitation from a walkway at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., March 14, 2017. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

AIR TRAFFIC SNARLED

Airlines canceled about 5,500 flights across the United States, according to tracking service FlightAware.com. The airports with the most cancellations were Newark in New Jersey, LaGuardia in New York and Boston Logan International Airport.

American Airlines <AAL.O> canceled all flights into New York’s three airports – Newark, LaGuardia and John F. Kennedy International Airport – and JetBlue Airways <JBLU.O> reported extensive cancellations.

Delta Air Lines <DAL.N> canceled 800 flights for Tuesday for New York, Boston and other northeast airports. United Airlines <UAL.N> said it would have no operations at Newark or LaGuardia.

“We’re keeping a close eye on things and depending on how things go, will plan to ramp back up Wednesday morning,” United said in a statement.

New York City public schools – the largest U.S. school system – canceled classes on Tuesday as did schools in the Washington, D.C., area, Boston, Philadelphia and northern New Jersey.

Federal agencies in Washington said they were opening three hours later than normal on Tuesday.

The storm comes near the end of an unusually mild winter along much of the East Coast, with below-normal snowfalls in cities such as New York City and Washington.

Boston was braced for up to a foot of snow, which forecasters warned would fall quickly during the storm’s peak. The double-murder trial in Boston of former New England Patriots star Aaron Hernandez was suspended for the day because of the weather.

Washington, a city that functions badly with even small amounts of snow, was expecting 5 inches (13 cm) and twice that in outlying areas.

Snow fall was to be heavy at times with as much as 4 inches an hour expected to fall with winds reaching up to 60 mph (100 kph) in parts of the northeast, the National Weather Service warned.

Coastal flood warnings were also in effect for several parts of the region as a storm surge is expected during high tide on Tuesday, the weather service said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was due to meet President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday, postponed her trip until Friday, the White House said.

Shelves are seen scarce with bread at a Trader Joe's grocery store ahead of a fast-moving winter storm expected to hit the northeastern United States, in the borough of Manhattan in New York, U.S., March 13, 2017. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

Shelves are seen scarce with bread at a Trader Joe’s grocery store ahead of a fast-moving winter storm expected to hit the northeastern United States, in the borough of Manhattan in New York, U.S., March 13, 2017. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

(Additional reporting by Brendan O’Brien in Milwaukee, Laila Kearney and Jonathan Allen in New York and Scott Malone in Boston; Editing by Louise Ireland and Bill Trott)

U.S. Northeast braces for late winter blizzard

A woman is seen through a snow soaked car window walking in the snow at Cunningham Park in the borough of Queens in New York, U.S.

By Chris Michaud and Daniel Trotta

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Forecasters put the U.S. East Coast from New York City to Boston on a blizzard watch starting as early as Monday night, with authorities warning residents to prepare for the possibility of widespread power outages, road closures and flight disruptions.

Weather experts predicted the region could see 12 to 18 inches of wind-blasted snow from Monday to early Wednesday.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced preparations for the so-called Nor’easter storm, activating the state Emergency Operations Center as of Monday night while also directing state agencies to be on heightened alert.

“I encourage all New Yorkers in affected regions to plan ahead and avoid any unnecessary travel as the storm progresses,” Cuomo said in a statement, adding that commuters should expect road closures, delays and cancellations.

The storm also raised the potential for power outages with damaging winds across eastern Long Island and southeastern Connecticut, the National Weather Service said.

Significant disruption to air travel in the region was also anticipated with the storm.

Blowing snow and strong winds could lead to whiteout conditions with visibility as poor as a quarter mile, the service said. Sub-freezing temperatures were forecast in the upper 20s Fahrenheit.

New York City issued a snow alert for Monday night into Tuesday, expecting snowfall rates of up to 2 to 4 inches per hour Tuesday morning and afternoon, with gusts of up to 50 mph.

Mayor Bill de Blasio warned New Yorkers that “besides the snow, it will be cold,” while officials recommended that people avoid driving and use mass transit when possible.

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey was installing hundreds of pieces of snow equipment at the three New York area airports. Thousands of tons of salt and sand were prepared for airport roads, parking lots, bridges and tunnels.

As some 50 million people along the Eastern Seaboard came under storm or blizzard watches, Washington, D.C., which often bogs down with even low levels of snow, was expecting 5 inches and twice that in outlying areas.

The storm comes near the end of an unusually mild winter along much of the East Coast, with below-normal snowfalls in some areas, including New York City and Washington. It was the warmest February on record in nearly the entire area, according to the Northeast Regional Climate Center.

Last week in New York, temperatures hovered near 70 degrees Fahrenheit, according to Accuweather.com, hitting 60 or higher on six days in February.

Meanwhile, in the western United States, the weather service forecast potentially record-setting heat in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, where temperatures were expected into the 90s in some places.

(Reporting by Chris Michaud and Daniel Trotta; Editing by Randy Fabi)

Flights canceled, roads hazardous as winter storm pummels New England

A man clears snow off his vehicle following a winter snow storm in Somerville,

BOSTON (Reuters) – Hundreds of flights were canceled, scores of vehicle crashes reported and schools and government offices shuttered as the third winter storm in five days slammed New England on Monday.

Government offices were closed throughout Maine, with much of the state’s coast expecting to see 18 inches to 24 inches (46-61 cm) of snow by the day’s end, according to the National Weather Service.

“Travel conditions are expected to remain treacherous throughout Monday,” said Maine Governor Paul LePage. “Stay off the roads and avoid traveling unless it is an absolute emergency.”

Substantially less snow fell further south, though wind gusts of up to 55 miles per hour (89 kph) threatened to down tree limbs and power lines, forecasters warned.

Courts were closed throughout New Hampshire and Massachusetts, prompting a one-day delay in the start of jury selection for the double murder trial of former New England Patriots star Aaron Hernandez.

Some 675 U.S. flights were canceled on Monday, with Boston’s Logan International Airport the hardest hit with more than one of every five flights called off, according to tracking service FlightAware.com.

Residents dig out following a winter snow storm in the Boston suburb of Wakefield, Massachusetts, U.S.

Residents dig out following a winter snow storm in the Boston suburb of Wakefield, Massachusetts, U.S. February 13, 2017. REUTERS/Brian Snyder

At least one storm-related death was reported in Bedford, Massachusetts, about 15 miles (24 km) northwest of Boston, where a 60-year-old man died after he was struck and killed by a snowplow in the parking lot of the Veterans Administration hospital where he lived, police said.

The recent flurry of snowstorms follows a winter that has been mild throughout New England.

National Weather Service data on Monday showed that even with the most recent snowfall, Boston had recorded just 32.4 inches (82 cm) of snow so far this year.

That’s less than half the amount the city had experienced by this time of year in the record-setting winter of 2014-2015, when more than 9 feet (2.74 m) of snow fell and some snowbanks lingered on until the summer.

(Reporting by Scott Malone; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

Blizzard begins bearing down on Great Lakes, near-whiteout conditions expected

Portions of Illinois and Indiana were bracing for a blizzard on Wednesday.

The National Weather Service issued blizzard warnings for select counties in those states, saying high winds and heavy snow could generate near-whiteout conditions throughout the day.

The service said 6 to 12 inches of snow were expected across the warning area, and warned of wind gusts possibly reaching 50 mph. Travel was expected to be close to impossible during the height of the storm, and the warnings encouraged people to stay off the roads when possible.

The National Weather Service said snow had already begun falling on Wednesday morning.

More than 1,000 flights to or from Chicago’s airports had already been cancelled as of mid-day, according to flight monitoring website flightaware.com.

The Indiana State Police said they had responded to at least 46 crashes in just four hours, and the Indiana Department of Transportation reported multiple roads were closed due to incidents.

Some of the roads had since reopened, but the transportation department reported driving conditions were difficult on many roads in northwest Indiana. The state Department of Homeland Security issued numerous travel watches and advisories in that part of the state.

Broader winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories were also issued in other parts of Illinois and Indiana, as well as Missouri and Michigan. Winds were not expected to be as high in those areas, but the service said 6 to 12 inches of snow were still possible in many communities.

Residents of all of the affected states are encouraged to monitor their local forecasts.

Blizzard sets sights on New England, forecasts call for a foot of snow

Parts of New England were preparing for a blizzard on Monday morning.

The National Weather Service issued a blizzard warning for southeastern Massachusetts, warning that 8 to 12 inches of heavy snow and wind gusts of 60 mph were in the forecast.

The service warned the storm could damage trees, cause power outages and lead to whiteout conditions, which may complicate travel. The blizzard warning expires at 7 p.m. this evening.

Snowfall totals were steadily on the rise on Cape Cod, with the National Weather Service reporting that 3.5 inches fell in Centerville, Massachusetts, in just four hours.

Other parts of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Long Island and coastal New Hampshire were under less-severe winter storm warnings, though the National Weather Service was still calling for 4 to 10 inches of snow and wind gusts of up to 45 mph in those regions.

Lighter totals are forecast in Maine, New Jersey, New York and northern New Hampshire, which were under winter weather advisories. The service is calling for 2 to 6 inches of snow there.

Those advisories and warnings are set to expire tomorrow morning, according to the service.

The Weather Channel is calling the storm Winter Storm Mars.

The winter storm comes just two days after another winter storm knocked out power for at least 170,000 customers in Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island. About 5,000 customers in those states were without power as of 11 a.m. local time Monday, according to the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency and local utility companies Eversource and National Grid.

The latest storm already led to more than 300 flight cancellations to or from Boston Logan International Airport, according to flight monitoring website FlightAware.com. Nearly 400 flights to or from the three airports that serve New York City were cancelled, the site reported.

Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker said that all non-emergency government employees in nine of the state’s 14 counties should not report to work on Monday. The Massachusetts State Police also tweeted that ferry service to Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket had been suspended.

Separately, the National Weather Service issued blizzard warnings in parts of Iowa and Minnesota as another storm moves across the Great Plains. The service is only calling for an inch of snow, but 55 mph wind gusts could significantly reduce visibility through tonight.

“Travel is not advised in many areas,” the blizzard warning states.

The service also issued winter storm warnings in parts of Carolina and Tennessee, saying parts of the East Tennessee Mountains could see a foot of snow before Wednesday. Winter weather advisories were issued in several surrounding states, though lighter totals were expected there.

Residents of all the affected states should monitor their local forecasts.

Blizzard watch issued ahead of ‘potentially paralyzing’ snowstorm

The National Weather Service on Wednesday issued its first watches for a winter storm that could wreak havoc on the northeastern United States this weekend.

The blizzard watch includes the cities of Baltimore and Washington and surrounding areas in Maryland and Virginia. It will formally go into effect on Friday afternoon and remain valid through Saturday night, the service said.

The National Weather Service said it’s “monitoring the possibility” that a storm could drop 1 to 2 feet of snow along the I-95 corridor this Friday and Saturday.

The stretch includes other major cities like Philadelphia, Boston and New York, though no watches for those areas had been issued as of mid-day Wednesday.

The service’s Weather Prediction Center warned of a “potentially paralyzing winter storm for portions of the Mid-Atlantic,” including possible blizzard conditions in Baltimore and Washington, and said more than a half-inch of ice was possible in Kentucky and North Carolina. Coastal flooding was also possible.

The blizzard watch cautions that the area could receive more than a foot of snow, with a wintry mix possible on Friday night. The storm is also expected to bring 40 mph wind gusts, which could lead to whiteouts and power outages.

“Heavy snow and blowing snow will cause dangerous conditions and will be a threat to life and property,” the watch states. “Travel is expected to be severely limited if not impossible during the height of the storm Friday night and Saturday.”

The blizzard watch encourages people to stock up on necessary items.

The service also issued less-severe winter storm watches for portions of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Virginia, though still warned that a foot of snow was possible in some areas and said blowing snow could pose travel hazards.

The Weather Channel is calling the potential storm Winter Storm Jonas.

The threat came as another winter storm was moving across the country.

National Weather Service radar showed precipitation falling throughout the south, and winter weather advisories or winter storm warnings were in effect for portions of Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, Georgia and the Carolinas.

On Tuesday, Georgia Governor Nathan Deal declared a state of emergency for 15 counties affected by winter weather.

California Rattled By Heavy Rains, Snow, Earthquake

Large portions of California were bracing for more heavy rain and snow Wednesday as El Niño pushed powerful storms toward the state, threatening to cause flash flooding and other damage.

The National Weather Service issued numerous flash flood watches along the California coastline and also issued winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories for areas in higher elevations. The service’s office in San Diego also warned of a chance for mudslides, particularly in areas where recent wildfires burned.

National Weather Service forecasts called for 2 to 4 inches of rain to fall across Southern California on Wednesday, accompanied by peak wind gusts of up to 60 mph that could be strong enough to topple trees and power lines. The rain comes a day after 1.42 inches fell at Los Angeles International Airport, smashing a daily rainfall record that stood for more than 36 years. Other parts of California received more than 3 inches of rain, National Weather Service data indicated.

The National Weather Service was calling for 5 to 10 inches of snow in higher elevations on Wednesday, but said mountain peaks could see 18 inches. Near-blizzard conditions were expected in some places. More storms were expected to drop additional precipitation tonight and Thursday.

Meanwhile, the United States Geological Survey reported a magnitude 4.5 earthquake occurred just outside of Banning, California, at 6:42 a.m. local time. The California Highway Patrol’s website indicated it received reports of small rocks and mud across state Route 243 a few minutes after the earthquake, though it wasn’t clear if the earthquake triggered the landslide.

Banning is located about 80 miles east of Los Angeles.

The National Weather Service also issued a flash flood warning for parts of Ventura County, just northwest of Los Angeles, cautioning that heavy rain could cause mud and debris to slide across busy Highway 101.

The storms were being blamed on El Niño, a weather pattern known for producing atypical and extreme weather throughout the world. It occurs when part of the Pacific Ocean is warmer than usual, which sets off a ripple effect that has a wide-reaching result. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has said that the United States is expected to see the effects of this El Niño over the next three months as one of the strongest instances of the phenomenon on record may sway temperatures and precipitation totals across significant portions of the nation.

Los Angeles opened up several shelters to help the city’s homeless population weather the storms.

Christmas time storms, tornadoes kill at least 43 in U.S.

By Lisa Maria Garza

DALLAS (Reuters) – Storms hit the U.S. South, Southwest and Midwest over the Christmas holiday weekend, unleashing floods and tornadoes that killed at least 43 people, flattened buildings and snarled transportation for millions during a busy travel time.

The bad weather, or the threat of it, prompted the governors of Missouri and New Mexico to declare a state of emergency for their states.

Flash floods killed at least 13 people in Missouri and Illinois.

In Missouri, emergency workers have evacuated residents from their homes and conducted dozens of water rescues, Governor Jay Nixon said on Sunday. He said at least eight people had been killed and numerous roadways had been closed.

Nixon declared a state of emergency, saying continued rains would make already widespread flooding conditions worse.

Three adults and two children were near the village of Patoka, Illinois, 85 miles (137 km) east of St. Louis, Missouri, when their car was washed away by floodwaters on Saturday night, according to Marion County Coroner Troy Cannon.

In Texas, at least 11 people were killed in the Dallas area over the weekend by tornadoes, including one packing winds of up to 200 miles per hour (322 km per hour). The twister hit the city of Garland, killing eight people and blowing vehicles off highways.

“It is total devastation,” Garland Police spokesman Lieutenant Pedro Barineau said. “It is a very difficult time to be struck by such a horrible storm the day after Christmas.”

Three other deaths were reported in the Dallas metropolitan area, the United States’ fourth most populous with about 7 million residents. Scores of people were injured in the region and officials estimated some 800 homes may have been damaged.

Powerful tornadoes are a staple of spring and summer in central states but occur less frequently in winter, according to U.S. weather data.

Three tornadoes were reported in Arkansas on Sunday, the weather service said, but there were no initial reports of significant injuries or damage.

The service has issued tornado watches and warnings for areas in that state, as well as in parts of Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Mississippi.

A tornado watch means a storm is likely, while a warning means a storm or storms have been sighted.

The storms came on the heels of tornadoes that hit two days before Christmas, killing at least 18 people, including 10 in Mississippi.

In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott said his office had declared Dallas County and three nearby counties disaster areas. He also warned people to be wary of snow in western parts of the state and rivers spilling their banks in other places.

The National Weather Service issued severe weather advisories for large parts of the central United States, including a blizzard warning for parts of New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and a flash flood watch stretching from Texas to Indiana.

New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez declared a state of emergency for the entire state due to a winter storm that had dumped up to two feet of snow by Sunday night.

The New Mexico city of Roswell bested its one-day snowfall record, receiving 12.3 inches by Sunday evening, the Weather Service said.

The bad weather forced the cancellation of nearly 1,500 flights in the nation on Sunday, according to tracking service FlightAware.com. About half of the canceled flights were in Dallas, a major U.S. flight hub.

(Reporting by Lisa Maria Garza and Jon Herskovitz; Additonal reporting by Marice Richter in Dallas and Curtis Skinner in San Francisco; Writing by Jon Herskovitz; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Paul Tait)

Northeastern Blizzard Not As Strong As Feared

Some areas of the northeast are digging out from up to two feet of snow today but that total is far less than was anticipated from a massive winter storm.

Officials say that New York City was spared a large wave of the storm when less than a foot of snow fell on the city.  The bans on car travel were lifted early Tuesday and the New York City subway system returned to regular operation after being shut down 10 hours out of caution.

Snow is expected to fall into Wednesday morning through upper New England, leaving some towns in danger of tying or breaking record snowfall amounts for this time of year.  Snow drifts are the biggest issue, with Massachusetts governor Charlie Baker saying some drifts are over six feet in height.

Only one death has been reported from the storm so far.  A teenager died Monday when he was snow-tubing on Long Island and crashed into a lamppost.

While schools and other businesses remain closed throughout the region, the National Weather Service lifted the blizzard warning for all areas below Boston Tuesday.

New York’s governor defended his decision to issue a travel ban ahead of the storm.

“I would rather, if there is a lean one way or another, lean towards safety because I have seen the consequences the other way and it gets very frightening very quickly … we have had people die in storms,” Cuomo told reporters. “I would rather be in a situation where we say ‘We got lucky.'”