Tag Archives: Beef

US cattle herds shrink to a low not seen since 1951: What’s to blame? Drought, surging costs, elevated interest rates?

Cattle-Herd-Shrink-chart

Important Takeaways:

  • US Cattle Herd Shrinks to 73-Year-Low in Blow for Beef Lovers
  • The US cattle herd shrank to the lowest level in more than seven decades as ranchers continue to send their cows to slaughter, threatening to keep beef prices at stubbornly high levels for consumers for at least another couple of years while eroding profits for meat processors.
  • There were 87.2 million cattle as of January 1, down about 2% from a year ago and less than anticipated by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, the US Department of Agriculture said Wednesday in its biannual cattle-inventory report. That’s the smallest animal count since 1951, according to USDA data.
  • American ranchers have for the past four years been culling more cows than they were retaining for breeding because of persistent droughts, surging feed costs and elevated interest rates… herds aren’t expected to start rebounding before at least 2026, said Lane Broadbent, president of KIS Futures Inc. in Oklahoma City.

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Beef is Not for Dinner: US has lowest inventory since 1962

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.

Important Takeaways:

  • The USDA’s biannual cattle report showed that, as of Jan. 1, 2023, there is an 89.3 million head inventory — which is three percent lower than the total from a year ago and the lowest since 2015. Of that number, 38.3 million cows and heifers have calved.
  • Additionally, there are 28.9 million beef cows, which are those explicitly bred for slaughter and meat sales, as of the start of this year — which is down nearly four percent from last year and the lowest the agency has recorded since 1962.

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Beef could be $50 per pound soon Ranchers predict

Revelations 18:23 ‘For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • Oklahoma Ranchers Predict Beef To Rise To $50 per Pound
  • The whole state of Oklahoma is currently classified in a state of drought. Some areas are considered “abnormally dry” while others are listed as experiencing “extreme” drought status, but that’s not painting the full picture that is happening across the entire beef industry right now.
  • During periods of past drought, it hasn’t historically been a widespread occurrence. It’s usually one region or another suffering from dry conditions, and the other regions have been able to support those in need.
  • This drought isn’t currently limited to Oklahoma and a handful of other states… It’s almost the entire western half of the country, and the pain we’re feeling now in the store is nothing compared to what ranchers are warning us of.
  • Thanks to the unending economic symptoms of the pandemic and 2022’s inflation double-punch, average beef prices are currently about twice what they were in 2019. Add in the deepening widespread drought, a shortage of hay and feed, skyrocketing prices, transport costs, and various other metrics, some Southwest Oklahoma beef producers suggest cheap ground beef could eventually top $50 per pound.
  • Between the current inflation and the weather, we could be headed towards another Dust Bowl and Great Depression: Part Deux.

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New Jersey company discovers over 120,000 lbs. of beef has E. coli

Rev 6:6 NAS “And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Over 60 tons of ground beef recalled due to possible E. coli contamination
  • Approximately 120,872 pounds of ground beef products have been recalled due to possible E. coli contamination, KTLA sister station WKBN reported.
  • According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s website, Lakeside Refrigerated Services, of Swedesboro, New Jersey, announced Monday that it is recalling the beef after the problem was discovered during routine testing of imported products produced from Feb. 1 through April 8.

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Inflation in the last year has us paying more for everything

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Price of Unleaded Gas Up 40.8% Under Biden; Used Cars Up 40.5%; Beef Up 16.0%
  • Between January 2021 and January 2022–President Joe Biden’s first year in office–the price of unleaded gasoline increased 40.8 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  • The price beef and veal products increased 16.0 percent, according to BLS. That included a 13.0 percent increase in the price of uncooked ground beef; a 17.1 percent increase in the price of uncooked beef steaks; and a 19.2 percent increase in the price of uncooked beef roasts.
  • The price of pork increased 14.1 percent.
  • The price of chicken increased 10.3 percent.

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Supply chain interruptions will continue over next 6 weeks as COVID-19 variant impacts labor market

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Billionaire supermarket CEO warns of potential meat, egg shortage as omicron disrupts US supply chain
  • Billionaire Gristedes CEO John Catsimatidis, went on to say that many of these interruptions will continue over the next 6 weeks as the COVID-19 variant impacts the labor market
  • Various products, including eggs, poultry, and beef, go up because of low supply and high demand
  • He added that the price hikes and supply chain shortages have been exacerbated by the rising cost of oil, which is necessary for transportation.

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UK meat industry warns of imminent supply threat from CO2 crisis

By James Davey

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain’s meat processors will start running out of carbon dioxide (CO2) within five days, forcing them to halt production and impacting supplies to retailers, the industry’s lobby group warned on Monday.

A jump in gas prices has forced several domestic energy suppliers out of business and has shut fertilizer plants that also make CO2 as a by-product of their production process.

The CO2 gas is used to stun animals before slaughter, in the vacuum packing of food products to extend their shelf life, and to put the fizz into beer, cider and soft drinks. CO2’s solid form is dry ice, which is used in food deliveries.

The CO2 crisis has compounded an acute shortage of truck drivers in the UK, which has been blamed on the impact of COVID-19 and Brexit.

“My members are saying anything between five, 10 and 15 days supply (remain),” Nick Allen of the British Meat Processors Association told Sky News.

With no CO2, a meat processor cannot operate, he said.

“The animals have to stay on farm. They’ll cause farmers on the farm huge animal welfare problems and British pork and British poultry will disappear off the shelves,” Allen said.

“We’re two weeks away from seeing some real impacts on the shelves,” he said, adding that poultry could start disappearing from shops even sooner.

Allen said the government was working to try and resolve the issue and might be able to persuade fertilizer producer CF Industries to re-start its UK plants.

Business minister Kwasi Kwarteng said he met CF Industries CEO Tony Will on Sunday to explore ways to secure CO2 supplies.

“Work is ongoing … to ensure that those sectors which are impacted by this … have appropriate contingency plans in place to ensure that there is minimal disruption,” he told parliament.

Meanwhile, the British Soft Drinks Association warned some manufacturers had only a few days of CO2 left.

UNHAPPY CHRISTMAS?

Some in the poultry industry fear a Christmas crisis.

Ranjit Singh Boparan, owner of 2 Sisters Food Group and Bernard Matthews, said the CO2 issue was “a massive body blow”, noting that the supply of turkeys this Christmas was already compromised by labor shortages.

Shares in processor Cranswick, whose products include fresh pork and chicken and gourmet sausages, fell 4% after it said production could be halted.

The crisis is also having a more immediate impact.

Online supermarket group Ocado said it had temporarily reduced the number of lines it is able to deliver from its frozen range. Dry ice is used to keep items frozen during delivery. Ocado shares fell 1.6%.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC), which represents retailers including the major supermarket groups, said the CO2 shortage had compounded existing pressures on production and distribution.

“… it is vital that government takes immediate action to prioritize suppliers and avoid significant disruption to food supplies,” said Andrew Opie, the BRC’s director of food and sustainability.

Britain’s National Farmers Union said it was concerned about the shortages of fertilizer and CO2.

“We’re aware of the added strain this puts on a food supply chain already under significant pressure due to lack of labor,” NFU vice president Tom Bradshaw said.

Britain’s big four supermarket groups – market leader Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons declined to comment.

(Reporting by James Davey; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Jason Neely, Gareth Jones and Alexander Smith)

U.S. grocery meat supply to improve soon, after virus-fueled demand surge: Tyson Foods

By Tom Polansek

CHICAGO (Reuters) – Demand for U.S. meat at grocery stores will likely exceed supplies for at least another week, the chief executive of Tyson Foods Inc told Reuters on Thursday, as the coronavirus pandemic fuels panic buying among shoppers.

Food manufacturers say overall meat supplies are ample to feed the millions of Americans hunkering down in their homes after state and local governments closed schools, bars and restaurants in an escalation of “social distancing” policies aimed at containing the virus.

But a surge in demand for products from chicken and beef to dry pasta at supermarkets has left store shelves and meat cases empty, alarming consumers.

“Once we are able to replenish supplies, which is probably going to take another week or so, then I think that we’ll be back in better equilibrium between supply and demand,” Tyson CEO Noel White said in an interview.

He later added: “In the short term, being a matter of weeks, there are some imbalances that exist.”

The “imbalances” are more demand than supply in sectors like retail stores, White said. The total amount of beef, pork and poultry available in the United States is up about 2% to 3% from last year, he said.

Orders for meat from grocery stores were significantly higher than usual through the weekend, after demand began to shift away from restaurants last week, White said.

“The demand hit very quickly,” White said. “The order fill rate has improved. It’s still not where we would expect it to be.”

Increased buying at supermarkets has lifted overall demand for meat, although the increase has been largely offset by reduced demand from restaurants, White said. Demand from casual dining restaurants, in particular, has suffered, though fast-food restaurants continue to benefit from strong drive-through traffic, he said. Tyson is the largest U.S. meat supplier and counts companies like McDonald’s Corp as customers.

To meet increased retail demand, Tyson has shifted processing facilities to produce food for grocery stores instead of restaurants, White said. The company is running slaughterhouses at full capacity and on weekends, he said.

U.S. cattle futures have dropped sharply on concerns slaughterhouses will close if the novel coronavirus spreads among workers.

To avoid shutdowns, Tyson has begun taking employees’ temperatures at two processing facilities and is expanding the practice to all U.S. workers, according to the company. It expects deliveries of several thousand thermometers on Thursday, White said.

(Reporting by Tom Polansek in Chicago; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

U.S. bans fresh Brazil beef imports over safety concerns

A customer (R) pays for his meat at the Municipal Market in Sao Paulo October 10, 2014. REUTERS/Nacho Doce

By Tom Polansek

CHICAGO (Reuters) – The United States halted imports of fresh Brazilian beef on Thursday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said, after a high percentage of shipments failed to pass safety checks.

The USDA had “recurring concerns about the safety of the products intended for the American market,” after increasing tests on Brazilian beef in March, according to a statement.

The agency raised scrutiny on Brazilian beef and ready-to-eat products as a precaution following an investigation into corruption involving Brazil’s health inspectors that targeted meat companies JBS SA <JBSS3.SA> and BRF SA <BRFS3.SA>.

JBS, the world’s largest meat packer, declined to comment on the U.S. ban.

The USDA’s action threatens the reputation of meat from Brazil, the world’s top exporter of beef and poultry, even though the United States is not a top customer. It also could boost domestic sales in the United States.

“Product was already on the water and that’s not going to be allowed in,” Altin Kalo, a U.S. livestock analyst at Steiner Consulting Group, said about shipments headed to the United States from Brazil via boat.

Since March, the USDA has rejected 11 percent of Brazilian fresh beef products, compared to the rejection rate of 1 percent for shipments from the rest of the world, the agency said. The shipments, totaling about 1.9 million pounds, raised concerns about public health, animal health and sanitation, according to the USDA.

The agency said none of the rejected lots made it into the U.S. market.

The move to block Brazilian meat is a turnaround for Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, who warned in March that Brazil might retaliate if the United States halted beef imports.

On Thursday, he said in a statement that “although international trade is an important part of what we do at USDA, and Brazil has long been one of our partners, my first priority is to protect American consumers.”

The U.S. suspension will remain in place until Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry “takes corrective action which the USDA finds satisfactory,” according to the agency.

A slew of global buyers, including China, Egypt and Chile, curtailed imports of Brazilian meat after Brazilian federal police unveiled an investigation into alleged corruption in the sector on March 17.

Brazilian authorities said at the time that meat companies made payments to government health officials to forego inspections and cover up health violations.

China is not expected to follow the U.S. move as it only permits imports of frozen Brazilian beef, which has different requirements to fresh meat, said analysts.

Brazil is also China’s top beef supplier, and would be difficult to replace in the short-term, said Pan Chenjun, senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank.

The United States began allowing shipments of fresh beef from Brazil last year after banning them due to concerns about foot and mouth disease in cattle.

(Additional reporting by Michael Hirtzer in Chicago, Tatiana Bautzer in Sao Paulo and Dominique Patton in Beijing.; Editing by David Gregorio and Bill Trott)

Price Of Beef Spiking As Herd Levels Shrink

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has reported that the country’s cattle herd has reached its lowest level in 63 years and that ongoing drought in Texas and the Midwest is going to further threaten herd levels.

More than 80 percent of the Lone Star state has been facing abnormally dry conditions that have impacted both farmer ability to water herds but also reduced much of the grass in the state to a level where it provides no nutrition for animals.

One farmer said he’s had major hits to his farm this year.

“We need rain bad,” rancher Stayton Weldon told Bloomberg.  “We’ve got tremendous drought problems.  It cuts your herd size down because people have to sell off to provide for the cattle that are left.”

Weldon has lost 22 cows and two bulls in the last year because of the conditions.

The USDA says the $85 billion a year beef industry will produce at its lowest level in 20 years through the end of 2014.