Trump adopts aggressive posture toward Iran after missile launch

A file photo shows a ballistic missile launched and tested at an undisclosed location in Iran. REUTERS/Mahmood

By Steve Holland and Matt Spetalnick

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The White House put Iran “on notice” on Wednesday for test-firing a ballistic missile and said it was reviewing how to respond, taking an aggressive posture toward Tehran that could raise tensions in the region.

While the exact implications of the U.S. threat were unclear, the new administration signaled that President Donald Trump intended to do more, possibly including imposing new sanctions, to curb what he sees as defiance of a nuclear deal negotiated in 2015 by then-President Barack Obama.

The tough talk commits the administration to back up its rhetoric with action, which could cast doubt on the future of the Iran agreement and sow further uncertainty in an already chaotic Middle East, experts said.

Trump has frequently criticized the Iran nuclear deal, calling the agreement weak and ineffective.

Officials declined to say whether the military option was on the table, although Pentagon spokesman Christopher Sherwood said: “The U.S. military has not changed its posture in response to the Iranian test missile launch” on Sunday.

A fiery statement from Trump’s national security adviser, Michael Flynn, marked some of the most aggressive rhetoric by the administration that took office on Jan. 20, making clear that Obama’s less confrontational approach toward Iran was over.

Flynn said that instead of being thankful to the United States for the nuclear deal, “Iran is now feeling emboldened.”

“As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice,” he told reporters in his first appearance in the White House press briefing room.

He said the launch and an attack on Monday against a Saudi naval vessel by Iran-allied Houthi militants off the coast of Yemen underscored “Iran’s destabilizing behavior across the Middle East.”

Iran confirmed it had tested a new missile but said it did not breach a nuclear accord reached with world powers or a U.N. Security Council resolution that endorsed the pact.

‘HOW WOULD U.S. RESPOND?’

Analysts said Iran could interpret Flynn’s warning as bluster given that the Trump administration is still formulating a response.

“It’s a vague way of drawing a line in the sand,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies-Americas. “Taken literally, it could mean: ‘You do this one more time and you’ll pay for it.’ But how would the U.S. respond?”

The warning could foreshadow more aggressive economic and diplomatic measures against Iran.

Three senior U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said a range of options, including economic sanctions, was being considered and that a broad review was being conducted of the U.S. posture toward Iran.

One official said the intent of Flynn’s message was to make clear the administration would not be “shy or reticent” toward Tehran.

“We are in the process of evaluating the strategic options and the framework for how we want to approach these issues,” the official said. “We do not want to be premature or rash or take any action that would foreclose options or unnecessarily contribute to a negative response.”

“Our sincere hope is that the Iranians will heed this notice today and will change their behavior,” he said.

Iran has test-fired several ballistic missiles since the nuclear deal in 2015, but the latest test was the first since Trump became president.

RISK OF MISCALCULATION

The issue came to the forefront on the same day that the U.S. Senate confirmed former Exxon Mobil Corp Chief Executive Rex Tillerson as secretary of state.

Trump told Tillerson at his swearing-in ceremony that “although you inherit enormous challenges in the Middle East and around the world, I believe we can achieve peace and security in these very, very troubled times.”

Simon Henderson, a Gulf expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said there was a danger of a miscalculation by Washington or Tehran.

“The question now is will the Iranian logic be: ‘My goodness, this guy is serious, we’d better behave ourselves?’” he said. “Or do they say: ‘Why don’t we tweak him a bit more to see what he really means, maybe test him.’”

The administration’s tough statement came midway through a three-day exercise by 18 U.S., French, British and Australian warships and an undisclosed number of aircraft close to Iranian waters in the Gulf, according to a statement by U.S. Central Command.

Trump is due to hold talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a strident critic of the Iran nuclear deal, at the White House on February 15.

The U.S. president and Saudi Arabia’s ruler, King Salman, spoke by phone on Sunday and were described by the White House as agreeing on the importance of enforcing the deal and “addressing Iran’s destabilizing regional activities.”

Sunni Muslim-dominated Saudi Arabia, home to Mecca and other Islamic holy sites, and Shi’ite Muslim-majority Iran are regional rivals.

(Additional reporting by Jonathan S. Landay, Roberta Rampton, Idrees Ali, Yeganeh Torbati, Lesley Wroughton, Yara Bayoumy and Arshad Mohammed; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Peter Cooney)

Iran confirms new missile test, says it does not violate nuclear deal

Iran flag

By Bozorgmehr Sharafedin

DUBAI (Reuters) – Iran’s defense minister said on Wednesday it had tested a new missile but this did not breach the Islamic Republic’s nuclear accord with world powers or a U.N. Security Council resolution endorsing the pact.

Iran has test-fired several ballistic missiles since the nuclear deal in 2015, but the latest test was the first during U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. Trump said in his election campaign that he would stop Iran’s missile program.

“The recent test was in line with our plans and we will not allow foreigners to interfere in our defense affairs,” Defence Minister Hossein Dehghan told Tasnim news agency. “The test did not violate the nuclear deal or (U.N.) Resolution 2231.”

A U.S. official said on Monday that Iran test-launched a medium-range ballistic missile on Sunday and it exploded after traveling 630 miles (1,010 km).

The Security Council held an emergency meeting on Tuesday and recommended the matter of the missile testing be studied at committee level. The new U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, called the test “unacceptable”.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Tuesday that Tehran would never use its ballistic missiles to attack another country.

Some 220 Iranian members of parliament reaffirmed support for Tehran’s missile program, calling international condemnation of the tests “illogical.”

“The Islamic Republic of Iran is against weapons of mass destruction, so its missile capability is the only available deterrence against enemy hostility,” the lawmakers said in a statement carried on state media on Wednesday.

The state news agency IRNA quoted Ali Shamkhani, head of Iran’s National Security Council, as saying Iran would not seek “permission from any country or international organization for development of our conventional defensive capability”.

The Security Council resolution was adopted to buttress the deal under which Iran curbed its nuclear activities to allay concerns they could be put to developing atomic bombs, in exchange for relief from tough economic sanctions.

The resolution urged Tehran to refrain from work on ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear weapons. Critics say the resolution’s language does not make this obligatory.

Tehran says it has not carried out any work on missiles specifically designed to carry nuclear payloads.

The test on Sunday, according to U.S. officials, was of a medium-range ballistic missile, a type that had been tested seven months ago as well.

Iran has one of the Middle East’s largest missile programs but its potential effectiveness has been limited by a poor record for accuracy.

However, Hossein Salami, deputy head of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) said on Sunday, the day of the test, that the country was now one of the few whose ballistic missiles were capable of hitting moving objects.

Such a capability would enable Iran to hit enemy ships, drones or incoming ballistic missile.

Some of Iran’s precision-guided missiles have the range to strike its regional arch-enemy Israel.

On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Iran’s new missile test a “flagrant violation” of the U.N. resolution. He said he would ask Trump in their meeting in mid- February for a renewal of sanctions against Iran.

(Reporting by Bozorgmehr Sharafedin; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

Iran will not use ballistic missiles to attack any country: foreign minister

Minister of foreign affairs for Islamic Republic of Iran

By John Irish

TEHRAN (Reuters) – Iran said on Tuesday it would never use its ballistic missiles to attack another country and defended its missile tests, saying they are neither part of a nuclear accord with world powers nor a U.N. Security Council resolution endorsing the pact.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif spelled out Tehran’s stance after a U.S. official said Iran on Sunday test-launched a medium-range ballistic missile that exploded after 630 miles (1,010 km).

In light of this, the United States requested the U.N. Security Council hold “urgent consultations” on Tuesday, after its scheduled session on Syria’s conflict.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault told reporters in Tehran that had voiced its concerns over the Iranian test, adding that it harmed the international community’s confidence in Tehran and contravened Security Council Resolution 2231.

That resolution ratified a July 2015 accord between Iran and six world powers under which Tehran curbed its nuclear activity to defuse concerns it could be put to making atomic bombs; in return, Iran won relief from crippling economic sanctions.

Zarif neither confirmed nor denied the U.S. report that it tested a ballistic missile on Sunday but added: “The missiles aren’t part of the nuclear accords. Iran will never use missiles produced in Iran to attack any other country.”

“No Iranian missiles have been produced to carry nuclear warheads,” said Zarif, speaking at a joint news conference held with Ayrault in Tehran. The Security Council resolution called on Iran not to carry out activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, condemned Iran on Monday and said he would work with other lawmakers and the Trump administration to hold Iran accountable.

“COMMON INTEREST”

Ayrault said at the start of his two-day trip to Tehran on Monday that France would act as a defender of the nuclear deal that new U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to tear up.

“We hope that that question of Iran’s defensive program will not be used as a pretext for the new U.S. administration … to provoke new tensions,” Zarif said.

Ayrault added it was imperative the Islamic Republic abide strictly by the conditions of the accord. He said it was in the “common interest” that all sides heeded the deal.

Ayrault is looking to reassure Tehran of France and Europe’s support for the nuclear deal, and to increase commercial ties. The deal was engineered two years ago by the United States, Russia, China, Britain, Germany and France.

“This deal has to be rigorously kept to,” Ayrault said. “I want this deal to last and that no badly chosen initiatives are taken that could put the accord in jeopardy.”

During the U.S. election race, Trump branded it “the worst deal ever negotiated”, telling voters he would either rip it up or seek a better agreement.

Paris took one of the hardest lines against Tehran in the talks, but has been quick to restore trade relations since then.

Major French corporations including planemaker Airbus <AIR.PA>, oil major Total <TOTF.PA> and car companies Peugeot <PEUP.PA> and Renault <RENA.PA> have all signed contracts.

Ayrault said trade between the two countries had surged by 200 percent since the July 2015 deal.

He added that a deal between Turboprop maker ATR with IranAir for the sale of at least 20 aircraft was “practically sealed”, and that a contract with construction group Vinci <SGEF.PA> for two regional airports was also making progress.

Ayrault also sought to reassure Zarif over the potential return to Iran of major Western banks, which have hesitated for fear of possible U.S. fines if they do business with Iran.

“Some banks are reticent, but we are working on this,” Ayrault said.

(Editing by Mark Heinrich)

Israel’s Netanyahu says he will push Trump on Iran sanctions

Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu

JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday he planned to push U.S. President Donald Trump to renew sanctions against Iran during a visit to Washington next month, complaining that Iran had once more tested a ballistic missile.

Netanyahu has been harshly critical of the deal that six world powers including the United States under president Barack Obama struck with Iran to curb its nuclear program in return for an end to multilateral sanctions. Iran is Israel’s avowed enemy and Israel argues that the agreement fails to prevent Iranian weapons posing a threat to its very existence.

During the U.S. election campaign, Trump called the pact a “disaster” and “the worst deal ever negotiated”, though he has also said it would be hard to overturn an agreement enshrined in a U.N. resolution.

In a statement on his personal Twitter account, around the same time the White House announced his Feb. 15 visit, Netanyahu said: “Iran again launched a ballistic missile. This is a flagrant violation of a Security Council Resolution.”

A U.S. official said on Monday that Iran had test-fired a medium-range ballistic missile on Sunday, which exploded after 630 miles.

“In my upcoming meeting with President Trump I intend to bring up the renewal of sanctions against Iran,” Netanyahu said. “Iran’s aggression cannot be left without a response.”

The Obama administration said Iran’s ballistic missile tests had not violated the nuclear agreement, but Trump has said he will stop Tehran’s missile program.

Under the U.N. resolution approving the nuclear deal, Iran is “called upon” to refrain from work on ballistic missiles designed to deliver nuclear weapons for up to eight years.

Critics of the deal have said the language is ambiguous and does not make compliance obligatory, while Tehran says the missiles it has tested are not specifically designed to carry nuclear warheads.

This month, Iranian lawmakers approved plans to increase military spending, including expanding the long-range missile program.

(Reporting by Ari Rabinovitch; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

France, worried by Trump, promises to be defender of Iran nuclear deal

France leader saying he will continue Iran Nuclear Deal

By John Irish

TEHRAN (Reuters) – France vowed on Monday to act as defender of Iran’s nuclear deal, which U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to tear up, but said it was imperative Tehran abide strictly by the conditions of the accord.

Arriving in the Iranian capital for a two-day visit, French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said it was in the “common interest” that the 2015 accord under which Tehran agreed to curb its nuclear program in return for lifted sanctions was obeyed.

During the U.S. election race Trump had branded it “the worst deal ever negotiated”, telling voters he would either rip it up or seek a better agreement.

“I’m coming as the defender of the accord, but to be vigilant and explain that they (the Iranians) must be irreproachable,” Jean-Marc Ayrault told reporters after landing in Tehran.

“We harbor real concerns about the U.S. administration’s attitude towards this agreement,” he said.

The deal was brokered by the United States, Russia, China, Britain, Germany and France. Paris took one of the hardest lines against Tehran in the negotiations, but has been quick to restore trade ties.

Major French corporations including planemaker Airbus, oil major Total and automobile manufacturers Peugeot and Renault have all signed deals.

Ayrault said that while Tehran had “largely” kept to the terms of the deal, it had pushed the spirit of the accord over the past year by carrying out several ballistic missile tests.

“We want this agreement to be respected. It is in the common interest of the international community that it is,” Ayrault said.

The foreign minister is due to meet Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and the powerful Secretary of Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani.

The visit, which includes an economic conference where some contracts may be concluded, will provide an opportunity for talks on Syria. Paris is a vociferous opponent of Iran’s backing of Syria’s leader, Bashar al-Assad.

“We will discuss our disagreements, notably on Syria. “We had hoped Iran would be less aggressive in the region,” Ayrault said, referring to the period since the nuclear deal.

On Sunday, Trump spoke by telephone with Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, a close U.S.-ally in the Middle East. A White House statement said the two leaders agreed on the need to address “Iran’s destabilizing regional activities.”

(Editing by Ingrid Melander and Richard Lough)

U.S. deploys high-tech radar amid heightened North Korea rhetoric: official

radar to spy on North Korea

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A high-tech sea-based U.S. military radar has left Hawaii to monitor for potential North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile test launches, a U.S. defense official said on Wednesday.

Earlier this month, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said that the isolated, nuclear-capable country was close to test-launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the radar, known as the Sea-based X-band radar (SBX), left on Monday and would reach its destination, about 2,000 miles (3,218 km) northwest of Hawaii, towards the end of January.

The radar is able to track ICBMs and differentiate between hostile missiles and those that are not a threat.

On Tuesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said the U.S. military might monitor a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile test and gather intelligence rather than destroy it, as long as the launch did not pose a threat.

“If the missile is threatening, it will be intercepted. If it’s not threatening, we won’t necessarily do so,” Carter said,

“Because it may be more to our advantage to, first of all, save our interceptor inventory, and, second, to gather intelligence from the flight, rather than do that (intercept the ICBM) when it’s not threatening.”

Carter’s remarks came just over a week after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump vowed that North Korea would never fulfill its threat to test an ICBM. Trump said in a Jan. 2 tweet: “It won’t happen!”

“The SBX’s current deployment is not based on any credible threat; however, we cannot discuss specifics for this particular mission while it is underway,” Commander Gary Ross, a Pentagon spokesman, said.

(Reporting by Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart; Editing by James Dalgleish)

NATO seeks to manage Russia’s new military deployments

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg addresses a news conference during a NATO defence ministers meeting at the Alliance headquarters in Brussels, Belgium,

By Robin Emmott

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – President Vladimir Putin’s high-profile military deployments aim to showcase Russian power in any global confrontation with the West, NATO officials say, but the alliance will not seek to match Moscow’s actions.

Curtis Scaparrotti, the U.S.-led alliance’s top commander, told allied defense ministers on Wednesday that more than 120,000 Russian troops took part in exercises in September which culminated with the firing of a missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads, diplomats said.

As Russia’s sole aircraft carrier passed Europe’s shores this week, reports of its warships equipped with nuclear-capable missiles in the Baltic alarmed allies. The alliance is also concerned by Moscow’s deployment of ballistic Iskander missiles in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

“The main challenge is not individual events or deployments,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters. “It is the overall picture, where we see a substantial increase in Russia’s capabilities at sea, in the air and on land; exercises with a more aggressive patterns.”

Stoltenberg declined to say publicly what he thought Russia’s overall aims are. But Scaparrotti, who is also a U.S. army general, told defense ministers that Russia was seeking, in military parlance, “escalation dominance,” according to people briefed on the discussions.

That strategy holds that a military power can best contain and control conflicts if it is dominant at each step in an escalation with an adversary, potentially all the way to the biggest threat of nuclear weapons.

Some military analysts believe Putin holds this doctrine close to his heart.

“Putin is showing a desire for dominance,” said a senior NATO diplomat. “From the Arctic, to the Baltic and the Black Sea, sometimes simultaneously, Russia wants to use sophisticated weaponry mixed with ships of a Soviet vintage.”

NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL “WITHIN WEEKS”

In written remarks to reporters, Scaparrotti said only that “actions speak louder than words” and noted the Kremlin’s decision to consolidate control of the armed forces in Moscow and nuclear missile tests.

NATO says its decision to send 4,000 troops, planes, tanks and artillery to former Soviet republics in the Baltics and to Poland next year is a measured response compared to what NATO believes are 330,000 Russian troops amassed near Moscow.

“We will not mirror what Russia is doing,” Stoltenberg said. “We are not in a Cold War situation,” he said, referring to when 300,000 U.S. service personnel were stationed in Europe. NATO generals want to adhere to a 1997 agreement with Moscow not to station substantial combat forces on the NATO-Russia border.

Norway, which has a long border with Russia, will allow 330 U.S. troops to be stationed on its soil for a limited period from next year, the first time foreign troops have been posted on its territory since the end of World War Two.

Stoltenberg hopes to convene another NATO-Russia Council – the forum bringing together Russia’s top diplomat to the alliance and NATO envoys – in the next few weeks, diplomats say. Stoltenberg, who hails from Russia’s neighbor Norway, insists there is no attempt to isolate Moscow.

However, diplomats also complain that discussing such issues as Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea and near-misses between Western planes and Russian jets, have come to nothing.

That leaves NATO trying to learn more about Russia’s aims if Putin continues to escalate the stand-off with the West.

“One thing we need to address is if we all have the capacity to read Russia’s behavior satisfactorily. Russia is doing a lot of new, unfamiliar things,” said Britain’s ambassador to NATO Adam Thomson, who served as a diplomat in Moscow in the 1980s.

“It is obviously trying to signal but it is not clear that we know how to understand those signals,” he told reporters.

(Reporting by Robin Emmott; Editing by Richard Balmforth)

Another North Korea missile fails after launch, say U.S. and South

A ballistic rocket launch drill of the Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army (KPA) is seen at an unknown location, in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang on March 11, 2016. REUTERS / KCN

By Ju-min Park and Eric Walsh

SEOUL/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – North Korea test-fired a missile that failed immediately after launch early on Thursday, the U.S. and South Korean militaries said, hours after the two countries agreed to step up efforts to counter the North’s nuclear and missile threats.

The missile was believed to be an intermediate-range Musudan and was launched from the western city of Kusong, where the isolated state attempted but failed to launch the same type of missile on Saturday, the U.S. Strategic Command and South Korea’s Office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

The launch came shortly after the United States and South Korea agreed in Washington to bolster military and diplomatic efforts to counter the North’s nuclear and missile programs, which it is pursuing in defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions.

“We strongly condemn the North’s continued illegal acts of provocation,” the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.

Japan condemned the launch and said it would make a formal protest to the North through its embassy in Beijing.

The failed missile launch was the eighth attempt in seven months by the North to launch a weapon with a design range of 3,000 km (1,800 miles) that can be fired from road mobile launchers, the two militaries said.

North Korea has been pursuing its nuclear and missile programs at an unprecedented pace this year.

In June, North Korea launched a Musudan missile that flew about 400 km (250 miles), more than half the distance to Japan, a flight that was considered a success by officials and experts in South Korea and the United States.

North Korea said on Thursday that it would continue to launch satellites despite its rival South’s objections, in a statement by its space agency carried by official media.

TRUMP VS CLINTON

Pyongyang says it has a sovereign right to pursue a space program by launching rockets carrying satellites, most recently in February, although Washington and Seoul worry that such launches are long-range missile tests in disguise.

Impoverished North Korea and the rich, democratic South are technically still at war because their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty. The North regularly threatens to destroy the South and its main ally, the United States.

News of the North’s latest ballistic missile launch broke during the third and last U.S. presidential debate in which Republican candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, exchanged sharply contrasting views on U.S. alliances.

Trump said U.S. defense treaties around the world, including with South Korea, had to be renegotiated because “we’re being ripped off by everybody in the world”.

Clinton said Trump wanted to tear up alliances that keep nuclear proliferation in check while she believed alliances make the world and the United States safer.

“I will work with our allies in Asia, in Europe, in the Middle East and elsewhere,” Clinton said.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, speaking before the failed missile launch, said the United States would do “whatever is necessary” to defend itself, South Korea and other allies against North Korea.

Kerry and U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter reaffirmed that any attack by North Korea would be defeated, and any use of nuclear weapons “met with an effective and overwhelming response,” a joint statement said.

As part of the military effort, Kerry said the United States would deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system to South Korea “as soon as possible”.

China strongly opposes deployment of the U.S. system, saying it would impinge on its own strategic deterrence.

South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se, also speaking in Washington before the failed launch, said North Korea was nearing the “final stage of nuclear weaponisation” and the allies would mobilize “all tools in the toolkit” to defend themselves.

A U.S. aerospace expert, John Schilling, said this week in a report on the 38 North project that despite the failures, the pace of testing could enable the North to put the Musudan missile into operational service sometime next year.

(Editing by Jack Kim and Nick Macfie)

Squeezing North Korea: old friends take steps to isolate regime

Friendship bridge between China and North Korea

By Ju-min Park and Tony Munroe

SEOUL (Reuters) – From kicking out North Korean workers and ending visa-free travel for its citizens, to stripping flags of convenience from its ships, Cold War-era allies from Poland to Mongolia are taking measures to squeeze the isolated country.

More such moves, with prodding from South Korea and the United States, are expected after North Korea recently defied U.N. resolutions to conduct its fifth nuclear test.

North Korea’s limited global links leave most countries with few targets for penalizing the regime on their own.

Mounting sanctions over the years have made Pyongyang more adept at evasion and finding alternative sources for procurement, a recent paper by experts at Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found.

Nonetheless, South Korea has been especially active in pushing the North’s allies for unilateral action in hopes of reining in Pyongyang’s arms program.

“If long-standing friends of North Korea continue to publicly curb their ties with the country, Pyongyang will have fewer places overseas where its illicit networks can operate unhindered or with political cover from the host capital,” said Andrea Berger, deputy director of the proliferation and nuclear policy program at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI).

South Korean officials have declined to say whether they have made inducements to countries to punish North Korea.

“Presumably in the course of that diplomatic interaction it is also being made clear to Pyongyang’s partners that deeper trade ties with economies like South Korea will not be fully realizable” without taking steps against North Korea, Berger said.

Angola, for one, has suspended all commercial trade with Pyongyang, banning North Korean companies from operating there since the U.N. toughened sanctions in March, a South Korean foreign ministry official told Reuters recently.

Angola was suspected of buying military equipment in 2011 from North Korea’s Green Pine Associated Corp, which is under U.N. sanction, according to a 2016 U.N. report. North Korea had also cooperated with Angola in health care, IT and construction, South Korea’s embassy there said in December.

Angolan officials did not respond to requests for comment, but the country told the U.N. in July it had not imported any light weapons from North Korea in recent years.

North Korea’s export of cheap labor has also been targeted.

Earlier this year, Washington urged countries to curb the use of North Korean workers, who number roughly 50,000 and generate between $1.2 billion and $2.3 billion annually for Pyongyang, according to a 2015 U.N. report.

Poland, which hosted as many as 800 North Korean workers, according to some estimates, this year stopped renewing visas, as did Malta.

Travel restrictions have also increased, with Ukraine recently revoking a Soviet-era deal that allowed visa-free visits for North Koreans.

Singapore, which has been a hub for North Korea-linked trade, will require visitors from the country to apply for visas starting next month, its immigration authority said in July.

DE-FLAGGED

The vast majority of North Korea’s trade is with China, and experts warn sanctions will have limited impact without Beijing’s backing. China condemns Pyongyang’s nuclear program but is also its chief ally and is unwilling to pressure leader Kim Jong Un’s regime too far, fearing a collapse that would destabilize the entire region. That means agreeing significantly tightened U.N. sanctions could be difficult.

Some of the most tangible results of recent efforts to isolate North Korea have seen countries ban its ships from their registries. North Korean-owned vessels are suspected of using other flags to camouflage the movement of illicit cargo.

Landlocked Mongolia, which is among Pyongyang’s steadiest allies but also has close ties with Seoul, canceled the registrations of all 14 North Korean vessels flying its flag, according to a report it submitted to the U.N. in July, even though sanctions compelled it to act on just one of them.

Cambodia, once the most popular flag of convenience for North Korea, ended its registry scheme for all foreign ships in August, although it did not single out North Korea.

The flags of 69 North Korean ships, none of them on a U.N. blacklist, have been de-registered since the U.N. tightened sanctions in March, South Korea’s foreign minister said last month. The North’s merchant fleet is estimated by the U.N. at roughly 240 vessels.

Still, one-off measures by various countries mean Pyongyang can simply shift its business elsewhere – a shortcoming of unilateral actions in general.

China and Russia employ the bulk of North Korean workers and have publicly shown no inclination to halt the practice.

Last week, North Korean state media announced the Sept 19 “inauguration” of its embassy in the Belarusian capital Minsk. However, on Monday, the Belarus foreign ministry said there was no North Korean embassy there, although it did not immediately give further information.

Pyongyang has been known to use diplomatic personnel, several whom have been caught with large amounts of gold or cash, to procure banned equipment or fund illegal activities.

China, experts say, remains the key.

“Rather than being efficient, unilateral actions put psychological pressure on the North,” said Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies at Seoul National University. “But like criminal gangs, North Korea won’t cringe much under psychological pressure.”

(Additional reporting by Andrei Makhovsky in Minsk, Herculano Coroado in Luanda and Prak Chan Thul in Phnom Penh; Editing by Lincoln Feast)

North Korea ready for another nuclear test any time: South Korea

Kim Jon Un of North Korea

By Ju-min Park and Jack Kim

SEOUL (Reuters) – North Korea is ready to conduct an additional nuclear test at any time, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said on Monday, three days after the reclusive North’s fifth test drew widespread condemnation.

Pyongyang set off its most powerful nuclear blast to date on Friday, saying it had mastered the ability to mount a warhead on a ballistic missile and ratcheting up a threat that its rivals and the United Nations have been powerless to contain.

“Assessment by South Korean and U.S. intelligence is that the North is always ready for an additional nuclear test in the Punggye-ri area,” the site of the North’s five nuclear explosions, South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Moon Sang-gyun told a news briefing.

“North Korea has a tunnel where it can conduct an additional nuclear test,” Moon said.

South Korea is pushing for more sanctions against Pyongyang to close what it says were loopholes left in the last United Nations Security Council resolution adopted in March.

Both China and Russia backed sanctions imposed in March following the North’s January nuclear test, but their apparent ambivalence about fresh sanctions cast doubt on the Security Council’s ability to quickly form a consensus.

“We expect that China, as one of the Security Council member states, should take this issue seriously and play a very constructive role to come up with a very effective and strong sanctions resolution,” a South Korean foreign ministry official said.

NEW SANCTIONS?

The Security Council denounced the latest test on Friday and said it would begin work immediately on a resolution. The United States, Britain and France – three of the five veto-wielding permanent members – pushed for the 15-member body to impose new sanctions.

However, China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said sanctions alone could not solve the North Korean nuclear issue. The crux of the issue lay with the United States, not China, she added.

On Saturday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said a “creative” response was needed.

Speaking to Lavrov on Monday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China “strongly urged North Korea and other relevant parties to remain calm and exercise restraint, and not take any new steps to intensify tensions”, China’s Foreign Ministry said.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Lavrov and Wang condemned North Korea’s latest nuclear test in a phone conversation on Monday. Russia and China are the remaining veto powers on the Security Council.

As tensions rose on the Korean peninsula in the week of last week’s test, South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye said that North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles posed an “imminent threat.

“As North Korea has publicly said nuclear warheads have been standardized and customized to mount on ballistic missiles, we should keep in mind that North Korea’s nuclear missiles are a realistic, imminent threat targeting us, not a simple threat for negotiations,” Park said in a meeting with major political party leaders.

Pyongyang’s assertions that it is able to miniaturize a nuclear warhead have never been independently verified.

BOMBER FLIGHT DELAYED

North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho, formerly the country’s chief nuclear negotiator, arrived in Beijing on Monday and was seen entering the country’s embassy, Japan’s Kyodo news agency reported.

Ri left Pyongyang on Monday to attend a meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement countries in Venezuela and later the U.N. General Assembly, the North’s official KCNA news agency said.

A U.S. special envoy for the isolated state, Sung Kim, will travel to Seoul on Monday. Kim met Japanese officials on Sunday and said the United States may launch unilateral sanctions against North Korea, echoing comments by U.S. President Barack Obama on Friday in the wake of the test.

South Korea’s Yonhap news agency reported that bad weather had delayed the flight of an advanced U.S. B-1B bomber to the Korean peninsula, a show of strength and solidarity with ally Seoul, scheduled for Monday.

The flight from the U.S. base in Guam would now take place on Tuesday, a U.S. Forces in Korea official told Reuters, declining to identify the type of aircraft involved.

A group of 31 South Korean conservative lawmakers said the country should have nuclear weapons, either by acquiring its own arms or asking the Americans to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons that were withdrawn from the South under a 1991 pact for the decentralization of the peninsula.

“We should discuss every plan including an independent nuclear armament program at the level of self-defense to safeguard peace,” Won Yoo-chul, a senior lawmaker for the ruling Saenuri Party, said in a statement.

South Korea’s defense ministry said there was no change in its policy barring nuclear weapons.

(Additional reporting by John Ruwitch in Shanghai and Michael Martina in Beijing; Editing by Lincoln Feast and Alex Richardson)