COVID-19 far more widespread in Indonesia than official data show – studies

By Tom Allard

JAKARTA (Reuters) – COVID-19 is many times more prevalent in Indonesia than shown by official figures in the world’s fourth most populous country, authors of two new studies told Reuters.

The country of 270 million has recorded 1.83 million positive cases, but epidemiologists have long believed the true scale of the spread has been obscured by a lack of testing and contact tracing.

The results of Indonesia’s first major seroprevalence studies – which test for antibodies – were revealed exclusively to Reuters.

One nationwide study between December and January suggested 15% of Indonesians had already contracted COVID-19 – when official figures at the end of January had recorded infections among only around 0.4% of people.

Even now, Indonesia’s total positive infections are only around 0.7% of the population.

The results of the survey were not unexpected given under reporting, said Pandu Riono, a University of Indonesia epidemiologist who worked on the study carried out with help from the World Health Organization.

Siti Nadia Tarmizi, a senior health ministry official, said it was possible the study was preliminary, but there might be more cases than officially reported because many cases were asymptomatic.

She said Indonesia had low contact tracing and a lack of laboratories to process tests.

Based on blood tests, seroprevalence studies detect antibodies which show up people who likely already contracted the disease. The official figures are largely based on swab tests, which detect the virus itself and only reveal those who have it at the time.

Antibodies develop one to three weeks after someone contracts the virus and stay in the body for months.

WEAK TESTING

Seroprevalence studies in other countries – including India – have also revealed more widespread infections.

“Our official surveillance system cannot detect COVID-19 cases. It is weak,” said the principal investigator for the University of Indonesia study, Tri Yunis Miko Wahyono, who commented on it but was not authorized to confirm the figures.

“Contact tracing and testing in Indonesia is very poor and explains why so few cases are detected.”

Fellow study author Pandu said that although the study showed the wider spread of the virus, Indonesia still appeared to be far from achieving herd immunity – making it a priority to speed up vaccination.

Just 6% of Indonesia’s targeted population of 181 million have been fully vaccinated with two doses so far, while 9.4% have had one shot, according to government data.

Preliminary results of a separate seroprevalence study in Bali, done by the University of Udayana, found 17 per cent of those tested in September and November appeared to have been infected, principal investigator Anak Agung Sagung Sawitri told Reuters.

That was 53 times higher than rate of infection based on the cases officially recorded at the time on the tourist island, which is planning to reopen to international visitors next month.

The reopening is opposed by some public health experts, including academic and doctor Ady Wirawan.

“Testing, tracing, isolation and quarantine is very, very weak in Bali,” he said.

(Editing by Matthew Tostevin and Kim Coghill)

Exclusive: Pilot radioed alert on doomed Indonesian jet’s previous flight

A rescue helicopter as seen during rescue operations for Lion Air flight JT610 at Tanjung Priok port in Jakarta, Indonesia, November 1, 2018. REUTERS/Beawiharta

By Gayatri Suroyo and Agustinus Beo Da Costa

JAKARTA (Reuters) – The pilot of a Lion Air flight from Indonesia’s Bali island on Sunday made a radio alert minutes after take-off due to technical problems, but they were overcome and he pushed on to Jakarta. The same jet crashed on another flight hours later, killing all 189 people on board.

Herson, chief of the airport authority for the Bali-Nusa Tenggara area, told Reuters that after the alert the pilot updated the control tower to say that the plane was flying normally and he would not return to the airport as requested.

“The captain himself was confident enough to fly to Jakarta from Denpasar,” said Herson, who goes by one name, speaking by phone from Bali and referring to the resort island’s airport.

The pilot of another plane that was approaching Bali just after the Lion Air jet had taken off said he was ordered to circle above the airport and listened in to a radio conversation between the Lion Air pilot and air traffic controllers.

“Because of the Pan-Pan call, we were told to hold off, circling the airport in the air,” said the pilot, who declined to be named because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

“The Lion plane requested to return back to Bali five minutes after take-off, but then the pilot said the problem had been resolved and he was going to go ahead to Jakarta.”

Pilots use ‘Pan-Pan’ calls to flag urgent situations. They are a step down from ‘Mayday’, which signals severe distress.

The Denpasar-Jakarta flight landed at the Indonesian capital’s airport at 10:55 p.m. local time on Sunday.

The same Boeing 737 MAX jet took off at 6:20 a.m. the next morning, bound for Bangka island, off Sumatra, and plunged into the sea 13 minutes later. Just before the crash, the pilot had made a request to return to base.

A Lion Air spokesman declined to comment when asked about the alert on the earlier flight, citing the ongoing crash investigation.

The budget airline’s CEO, Edward Sirait, said earlier this week that a technical problem had occurred on the Denpasar-Jakarta flight but it had been resolved “according to procedure”.

Amid media speculation over the airworthiness of the aircraft, the transport minister suspended Lion Air’s technical director and three other officers on Wednesday to facilitate the crash investigation.

The suspended technicians “issued the recommendations for that (final) flight”, the ministry said in a press release. It did not say how many technicians had been suspended.

The country’s second-deadliest air disaster since 1997 has renewed concern about Indonesia’s patchy aviation safety record.

It will also put a spotlight on Boeing’s 737 MAX, which was introduced into commercial service last year and until Monday had an accident-free record. The narrowbody MAX is an update of Boeing’s 737 series, the world’s most produced family of commercial aircraft and one widely considered to have a strong safety record.

ERRATIC FLIGHT

During its earlier flight from Bali on Sunday, JT43, the aircraft flew erratically and its airspeed readings were unreliable, according to an accident investigator and a flight tracking website.

According to data from FlightRadar24, the jet displayed unusual variations in altitude and airspeed in the first several minutes of flight – including an 875-foot drop over 27 seconds when it would normally be ascending – before stabilizing and flying on to Jakarta.

However, the pilots kept the plane at a maximum altitude of 28,000 feet compared with 36,000 feet on the same route earlier in the week.

National Transport Safety Committee (NTSC) deputy chief Haryo Satmiko told reporters on Tuesday there were technical problems on the flight, including unreliable airspeed readings.

Divers on Thursday retrieved a flight data recorder from the plane that lay shattered on the muddy seafloor off the coast of Jakarta. The NTSC said it would examine the device to get a clearer picture of what happened on the flight from Bali on Sunday in addition to the flight that crashed on Monday.

Herson, the airport authority chief in Bali, said the aircraft had encountered a “speed and altimeter” problem but the captain was confident that it was airworthy and pressed on.

“He requested to return to the airport for RTB (return to base) but … they updated and flew to Jakarta. The pilot double-checked to ensure that they could fly,” he said.

Two passengers from Sunday’s flight posted on Instagram, reporting that they had been concerned about problems with the air conditioning system and cabin lighting before the plane left Bali nearly three hours late.

Another passenger on JT43 described, in a talk show broadcast by Indonesia’s TVOne, a turbulent flight during which the seatbelt signs were never turned off.

“When the plane took off, it climbed and then went down. It rose again, and then dropped again violently, shaking,” said Diah Mardani. “Everyone in the plane shouted Allahu Akbar (God is Greatest), Subhanallah (Glory to God). We recited every prayer we knew.”

(Writing by John Chalmers; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

Indonesia relief efforts in Lombok stepped up as new quakes kill 10

Debris is seen on a road at Kayangan Port, after an earthquake hit Lombok, Indonesia, August 20, 2018, in this picture obtained from social media. Bayu Wiguna/via REUTERS

MATARAM, Indonesia (Reuters) – At least 10 people were killed by strong tremors that rocked Indonesia’s holiday island of Lombok on Sunday, authorities said following the latest in a series of earthquakes that killed hundreds and forced thousands to flee their homes in recent weeks.

Nearly 500 people have died in quakes and aftershocks since July 29 across the northern coast of the island, which lies just east of Indonesia’s top tourist destination, Bali.

Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, a spokesman at the national disaster mitigation agency, said on Monday relief and reconstruction efforts had been “intensified”.

“The rebuilding of public facilities like hospitals and schools is being speeded up,” he said.

He said more than 100 aftershocks had been recorded since Sunday night’s magnitude 6.9 quake, which sent panicked residents into the streets and cut power and communication lines across the island.

Aftershocks ranging between magnitude 4 and 5 were continuing on Monday morning and access to some areas had been cut off by landslides triggered by the tremors, according to officials in Mataram, Lombok’s main city.

Sunday’s quake came exactly a fortnight after another 6.9 magnitude earthquake which killed around 460 people and prompted massive search, rescue and relief efforts.

Authorities estimate that the Aug.5 earthquake caused 5 trillion rupiah ($342 million) of damage on Lombok.

Hundreds of thousands of residents have been left homeless and are camped out in open fields, refusing to shelter indoors due to continuing tremors.

Aid organizations like Save The Children said they were “ready to scale up their humanitarian response”.

“The population feels like it’s had the rug pulled from under them with this new quake,” said Caroline Haga, humanitarian & emergency communications specialist with the Red Cross.

(Additional reporting by Fanny Potkin and Kanupriya Kapoor; Writing by Kanupriya Kapoor; Editing by Ed Davies and Simon Cameron-Moore)

Quake damage to Indonesia’s Lombok exceeds $342 million as deaths top 400

Residents pull down an earthquake damaged house in Kayangan, North Lombok, Indonesia August 12, 2018 in this photo taken by Antara Foto. Picture taken August 12, 2018. Antara Foto/Zabur Karuru/ via REUTERS

JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia’s holiday island of Lombok suffered damage running into more than 5 trillion rupiah ($342 million) from last week’s huge earthquake, authorities said on Monday, as the death toll climbed to more than 430.

More than 350,000 people fled their homes after the 6.9-magnitude quake to shelter in government-provided tents or makeshift structures in open fields. Authorities say aid is slow in getting to some of the hardest-hit areas as they are remote.

“The damage and losses are huge,” Sutopo Nugroho, the spokesman of Indonesia’s National Disaster Mitigation Agency, said in a statement.

“It will take trillions of rupiah…and a lot of time to heal the lives of the people and the economy of Nusa Tenggara Barat,” he said, referring to the province home to Lombok.

Residential homes and public infrastructure suffered the bulk of the damage, he added.

On Monday, President Joko Widodo visited the island, which lies just east of Bali, the southeast Asian country’s most famous tourist destination, for the second time since a slightly smaller quake on July 29.

He has called for search operations and relief efforts to be stepped up.

“I have ordered that the evacuation of victims who have not yet been found be made a priority,” Widodo said in a statement at the weekend.

($1=14,600.0000 rupiah)

(Reporting by Kanupriya Kapoor; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

As death toll on Indonesia’s Lombok tops 100, thousands wait for aid

A woman carries valuable goods from the ruins of her house at Kayangan district after earthquake hit on Sunday in North Lombok, Indonesia, August 7, 2018. REUTERS/Beawihar

By Kanupriya Kapoor

KAYANGAN, Indonesia (Reuters) – The death toll from a powerful earthquake that hit Indonesia’s tourist island of Lombok topped 100 on Tuesday as rescuers found victims under wrecked buildings, while thousands left homeless in the worst-affected areas waited for aid to arrive.

Health workers treat earthquake victims in the courtyard of Tanjung Hospital, North Lombok, Indonesia August 7, 2018 in this photo taken by Antara Foto. Antara Foto/Zabur Karuru/ via REUTERS

Health workers treat earthquake victims in the courtyard of Tanjung Hospital, North Lombok, Indonesia August 7, 2018 in this photo taken by Antara Foto. Antara Foto/Zabur Karuru/ via REUTERS

A woman was pulled alive from the rubble of a collapsed grocery store in the north, near the epicenter of Sunday’s 6.9 magnitude quake, the second tremor to rock the tropical island in a week.

That was a rare piece of good news as hopes of finding more survivors faded and a humanitarian crisis loomed for thousands left homeless by the disaster in the rural area and in desperate need of clean water, food, medicine, and shelter.

Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, the spokesman of Indonesia’s disaster mitigation agency (BNPB) put the toll at 105, including two on the neighboring island of Bali to the west, where the quake was also felt – and the figure was expected to rise.

Lombok had already been hit by a 6.4 magnitude earthquake on July 29 that killed 17 people and briefly stranded several hundred trekkers on the slopes of a volcano.

Indonesia sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire and is regularly hit by earthquakes. In 2004, the Indian Ocean tsunami killed 226,000 people in 13 countries, including more than 120,000 in Indonesia.

People walk near the ruins of a shop after an earthquake hit on Sunday in Pemenang, Lombok island, Indonesia, August 7, 2018. REUTERS/Beawiharta

People walk near the ruins of a shop after an earthquake hit on Sunday in Pemenang, Lombok island, Indonesia, August 7, 2018. REUTERS/Beawiharta

THOUSANDS SCATTERED ON HILLS

Few buildings were left standing in Kayangan on the island’s northern end, where residents told Reuters that as many as 40 died.

Some villagers used sledgehammers and ropes to start clearing the rubble of broken homes, but others, traumatized by continued aftershocks, were too afraid to venture far from tents and tarpaulins set up in open spaces.

There has been little government relief for the area, where the greatest need is for water and food, as underground water sources have been blocked by the quake and shops destroyed or abandoned.

About 75 percent of the north has been without electricity since Sunday, officials said, and some communities were hard to reach because bridges were damaged and trees, rocks, and sand lay across roads cracked wide open in places by the tremor.

“Thousands of people moved to scattered locations,” Sutopo told a news conference in Jakarta.

“People have moved to the hillsides where they feel safer. It’s difficult for help to reach them. We advise people to come down and move closer to the camps.”

Rescuers and policemen talk on top of a collapsed mosque as they try to find survivors after an earthquake hit on Sunday in Pemenang, Lombok Island, Indonesia, August 7, 2018. REUTERS/Beawiharta

Rescuers and policemen talk on top of a collapsed mosque as they try to find survivors after an earthquake hit on Sunday in Pemenang, Lombok Island, Indonesia, August 7, 2018. REUTERS/Beawiharta

Aid agency Oxfam said it was providing clean drinking water and tarpaulin shelters to 5,000 survivors, but the need was much greater, with more than 20,000 estimated to have been displaced.

“Thousands … are under open skies in need of drinking water, food, medical supplies, and clothes,” it said in a statement. “Clean drinking water is scarce due to the extremely dry weather.”

Villagers in Pemenang on Lombok’s northwestern shoulder heard cries for help emerging from the mangled concrete of a collapsed minimart on Tuesday and alerted rescuers. Four hours later they pulled out alive Nadia Revanale, 23.

“First we used our hands to clear the debris, then hammers, chisels, and machines,” Marcos Eric, a volunteer, told Reuters. “It took many hours but we’re thankful it worked and this person was found alive.”

Rescuers heard a weak voice coming from under the wreckage of a nearby two-story mosque, where four people were believed to have been trapped when the building pancaked.

“We are looking for access. We have a machine that can drill or cut through concrete, so we may use that. We are waiting for heavier equipment,” Teddy Aditya, an official of the Indonesian Search and Rescue Agency (Basarnas), told Reuters.

People push their motorcycle through the collapsed ruins of a mosque after an earthquake hit on Sunday in Pemenang, Lombok island, Indonesia, August 7, 2018. REUTERS/Beawiharta

People push their motorcycle through the collapsed ruins of a mosque after an earthquake hit on Sunday in Pemenang, Lombok island, Indonesia, August 7, 2018. REUTERS/Beawiharta

TOURIST EXODUS

Thousands of tourists have left Lombok since Sunday evening, fearing further earthquakes, some on extra flights added by airlines and some on ferries to Bali.

Officials said about 4,600 foreign and domestic tourists had been evacuated from the three Gili islands off the northwest coast of Lombok, where two people died and fears of a tsunami spread soon after the quake.

Saffron Amis, a British student on Gili Trawangan – the largest of the islands fringed by white beaches and surrounded by turquoise sea – said at least 200 people were stranded there with more flowing in from the other two, Gili Air and Gili Meno.

“We still have no wi-fi and very little power. Gili Air has run out of food and water so they have come to us,” she told Reuters in a text message, adding later that she had been taken by boat to the main island en route to Bali.

(Additional reporting by Angie Teo and by Agustinus Beo Da Costa,; Fransiska Nangoy and Fanny Potkin in JAKARTA; Writing by John Chalmers; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

Tourists flee Indonesia’s Lombok island after earthquake kills 98

People crowd on the shore as they attempt to leave the Gili Islands after an earthquake Gili Trawangan, in Lombok, Indonesia, August 6, 2018, in this still image taken from a video. Indonesia Water Police/Handout/via REUTERS

By Kanupriya Kapoor

PEMENANG, Indonesia (Reuters) – Scenes of destruction greeted rescue workers across Indonesia’s resort island of Lombok on Monday, after an earthquake of magnitude 6.9 killed at least 98 people and prompted an exodus of tourists rattled by the second powerful quake in a week.

People recover a motorcycle from a damaged home near a mosque after a strong earthquake in Gunungsari, West Lombok, Indonesia, August 6, 2018 in this photo taken by Antara Foto. Antara Foto/Ahmad Subaidi/ via REUTERS

People recover a motorcycle from a damaged home near a mosque after a strong earthquake in Gunungsari, West Lombok, Indonesia, August 6, 2018 in this photo taken by Antara Foto. Antara Foto/Ahmad Subaidi/ via REUTERS

The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) said it expected the death toll to rise once the rubble of more than 13,000 flattened and damaged houses was cleared away.

Power and communications were severed in some areas, with landslides and a collapsed bridge blocking access to areas around the quake epicenter in the north. The military said it would send a ship with medical aid, supplies and logistics support.

In a message on social network Twitter, the Indonesian Red Cross said it helped a woman give birth after the quake at a health post. One of the names she gave the baby boy was ‘Gempa’, which means earthquake.

Lombok was hit on July 29 by a 6.4 magnitude quake that killed 17 people and briefly stranded several hundred trekkers on the slopes of a volcano.

The Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) said more than 120 aftershocks were recorded after Sunday evening’s quake, whose magnitude the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) revised down to 6.9 from an initial 7.0. At that magnitude it released more than five times the energy of the quake a week earlier, the USGS website showed.

The dead included no foreigners and there were 236 people injured, BNPB spokesman Sutopo Purwo Nugroho told a news conference.

Residents sit outside their home with their belongings following a strong earthquake in Pemenang, North Lombok, Indonesia August 6, 2018 in this photo taken by Antara Foto. Antara Foto/Ahmad Subaidi/ via REUTERS

Residents sit outside their home with their belongings following a strong earthquake in Pemenang, North Lombok, Indonesia August 6, 2018 in this photo taken by Antara Foto. Antara Foto/Ahmad Subaidi/ via REUTERS

HOSPITALS OVERFLOWING

The tremor was powerful enough to be felt on the neighboring island of Bali where, BNPB said, two people died. The first quake was also felt on Bali.

Indonesia sits on the geologically active Pacific Ring of Fire and is regularly hit by earthquakes. In 2004, the Indian Ocean tsunami killed 226,000 people in 13 countries, including more than 120,000 in Indonesia.

Nugroho said more than 20,000 people had been displaced.

Among them were residents of a northern village called Mentigi, who fled to nearby hills. Blue tarpaulins dotted the landscape as people prepared to spend the nights outdoors because of aftershocks or because their homes were destroyed.

“We are getting some aid from volunteers, but we don’t have proper tents yet,” said a 50-year-old villager sheltering with his wife and children, who gave his name only as Marhun.

Ambulances with sirens blaring raced along the coast from north Lombok, but BNPB spokesman Nugroho said emergency units in its hospitals were overflowing and some patients were being treated in parking lots.

The main hospital in the town of Tanjung in the north was severely damaged, so staff set up about 30 beds in the shade of trees and in a tent on a field to tend to the injured.

A boy with a heavily bandaged leg wailed in pain, an elderly man wore a splint improvised from cardboard strips of cardboard on a broken arm, and some hurt by falling debris still had dried blood on their faces.

Chief Water Police of Lombok Dewa Wijaya takes a picture in front of hundreds of people attempting to leave the Gili Islands after an earthquake Gili Trawangan, in Lombok, Indonesia, August 6, 2018, in this picture obtained from social media. Indonesia Water Police/Handout/via REUTERS

Chief Water Police of Lombok Dewa Wijaya takes a picture in front of hundreds of people attempting to leave the Gili Islands after an earthquake Gili Trawangan, in Lombok, Indonesia, August 6, 2018, in this picture obtained from social media. Indonesia Water Police/Handout/via REUTERS

“THIS IS IT FOR ME INDONESIA”

Sengiggi, a seaside tourist strip on Lombok, wore an abandoned look. Amid collapsed homes, some hotels seemed to have shut, restaurants were empty and beaches deserted.

Long lines formed at the airport of Lombok’s main town, Mataram, as foreign visitors cut their holidays short. BNPB said 18 extra flights had been added for leaving tourists.

“I was at the rooftop of my hotel and the building started swaying very hard … I could not stand up,” said Gino Poggiali, a 43-year-old Frenchman, who was with his wife and two children at the airport.

His wife Maude, 44, said the family was on Bali for the first quake and Lombok for the second.

“This is it for me in Indonesia. Next time we will stay in France, or somewhere close,” she said.

Dutch tourist Marc Ganbuwalba injured his knee in a stampede of diners from a restaurant after the quake.

“We are cutting short our holiday because I can’t walk and we’re just not in the mood anymore,” said the 26-year-old, sitting on a trolley at the airport with his leg bandaged.

Officials said more than 2,000 people had been evacuated from the three Gili islands off the northwest coast of Lombok, where fears of a tsunami spread among tourists.

Michelle Thompson, an American holidaying on one of the Gilis, described a “scramble” to get on boats leaving for the main island during which her husband was injured.

“People were just throwing their suitcases on board and I had to struggle to get my husband on, because he was bleeding,” she said.

(Additional reporting by Fransiska Nangoy, Gayatri Suroyo, Fanny Potkin, Agustinus Beo da Costa, Bernadette Christina Munthe, Tabita Diela, Cindy Silviana and Jessica Damiana in JAKARTA, Jamie Freed and Jack Kim in SINGAPORE, and Colin Packham in SYDNEY; Writing by John Chalmers; Editing by Neil Fullick and Clarence Fernandez)

Playing with fire: tens of thousands refuse to leave Bali volcano homes

Playing with fire: tens of thousands refuse to leave Bali volcano homes

By Kanupriya Kapoor

KARANGASEM, Indonesia (Reuters) – Tens of thousands of villagers on the Indonesian holiday island of Bali are refusing to evacuate a 10-km (six-mile) danger zone around an erupting volcano, putting their fate in the hands of the gods or simply staying put to protect homes and livestock.

The glowing, 3,000-metre Mount Agung, considered sacred by many on the Hindu-majority island, started spewing huge columns of ash at the weekend and there have been constant tremors and volcanic mud flows since.

Search and rescue teams making daily forays into the zone say some are refusing to leave their cattle unattended, while others have spiritual reasons.

“The government has been clear about evacuation orders, but some people are slow to act or want to stay,” said Gede Ardana, head of Bali’s search and rescue agency.

“We cannot force them – but we will be held responsible, so we need to convince them.”

For cattle farmer Ketut Suwarte, there was no question of staying put.

“There was thick ash falling around us and we could smell sulfur. We were scared and we decided to leave immediately,” said Suwarte, 47, now staying in an evacuation camp just outside the danger zone.

Suwarte’s father recalls the last time Mount Agung exploded, in 1963, killing about 1,000 people as pyroclastic flows – made up of hot gas and volcanic matter – raced down the mountain.

Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, of the disaster mitigation agency, said about 43,000 people had heeded advice to take shelter, but with an estimated population of 90,000 to 100,000 in the danger area, many had not.

Ika Wardani, 33, sleeps with her family at an evacuation center at night but during the day returns to her cattle farm about 10 km north of the volcano.

‘THEY ARE STUBBORN’

“During the day at least we can see the volcano. But we’re uncomfortable sleeping here at night because an earthquake or loud explosion would cause panic,” she said. “We would have to drive our motorbikes at night and the roads are narrow so it’s safer to spend the nights at the evacuation center.”

She says there are people only five km from the crater who have refused to evacuate.

“They are stubborn,” she said. “Some of them survived 1963 so they believe it’s all right now.”

The government has set up radio stations and chat groups on social media to warn people of the risks.

“Many people have made the decision to stay inside the exclusion zone, and that is clearly very dangerous,” said Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, a spokesman for the disaster management agency.

Others, including tourists, are taking unnecessary risks by trying to take selfies as close as possible, officials say. Last month, a Frenchman shared a video of himself at the crater’s edge on social media.

In September, when authorities first raised the warning alert to the highest level, an exclusion zone of up to 12 km was imposed, prompting nearly 150,000 to leave, but when no major eruption occurred, many returned and the warning status was lowered. When authorities again raised the warning level this week, many were reluctant to move again.

“If (Mount Agung) follows the most frequent trend, it is likely to continue increasing in explosivity – but at what rate and how large, nobody knows,” said Dr Carmen Solana, a volcanologist at the University of Portsmouth.

President Joko Widodo on Wednesday urged people to leave the exclusion zone before it’s too late.

“There must not be any victims,” he said.

(Additional reporting by Johannes P. Christo; Editing by Ed Davies and Nick Macfie)

Tourists fly out of Bali at last as wind blows volcanic ash away

Tourists fly out of Bali at last as wind blows volcanic ash away

By Sultan Anshori

DENPASAR, Indonesia (Reuters) – Airlines laid on extra flights to the Indonesian holiday island of Bali on Thursday to allow thousands of passengers stranded for days by an erupting volcano to fly home as a switch in wind direction blew the ash away.

But a plume of smoke and ash still rose above Mount Agung on Thursday and the volcano, whose crater glows red, continued to rumble.

Bali airport reopened on Wednesday after being closed on Monday.

“We are happy we can leave now,” American tourist David Strand said at the airport. “It’s been interesting to have the volcano active, but we certainly hope that it doesn’t cause any more damage to the people of Bali.”

The airport on neighbouring Lombok island was closed.

China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines sent planes to fetch more than 2,700 Chinese tourists from Bali, Xinhua news agency said.

Korean Air said it had sent a charter flight. Jetstar said it would fly 3,800 passengers on 10 scheduled flights and six relief flights back to Australia on Thursday. It also encouraged customers booked to fly to Bali up to Dec. 7 to look at alternative destinations.

From January to September, Bali received 4.5 million foreign tourists, nearly half of the 10.5 million arrivals in Indonesia.

Chinese have overtaken Australians to become the top visitors to Bali, representing around a quarter of arrivals on the island.

Losses in revenue could be more than $650 million since the volcano warning level was first raised in September, Indonesian Tourism Minister Arif Yahya estimated.

Agung looms over eastern Bali to a height of just over 3,000 meters (9,800 feet). Its last major eruption in 1963 killed more than 1,000 people and razed several villages.

Authorities are urging people living up to 10 km (6 miles) from the summit to move to emergency centres, but tens of thousands don’t want to leave their homes and livestock unattended.

The disaster mitigation agency said on Wednesday about 43,000 people had moved to shelters, but many were thought to be staying put as up to 100,000 people are estimated to live within the danger zone.

“We cannot predict whether it will be bigger than 1963, but … according to our evaluation the potential for a full-scale eruption is still high,” Devy Kamil Syahbana, an official at Indonesia’s centre for volcanology and geological disaster mitigation centre, told Reuters.

(For an interactive graphic on Mount Agung awakens click, http://tmsnrt.rs/2AayRVh)

(Additional reporting by Kanupriya Kapoor and Wayan Sukarda in BALI and Adam Jourdan in SHANGHAI; Writing by Ed Davies; Editing by Nick Macfie)

Indonesia reopens Bali airport as wind clears volcanic ash

Indonesia reopens Bali airport as wind clears volcanic ash

By Ayu Mandala and Slamet Kurniawan

DENPASAR, Indonesia (Reuters) – The airport on the Indonesian holiday island of Bali reopened on Wednesday as wind blew away ash spewed out by a volcano, giving airlines a window to get tourists out while authorities stepped up efforts to get thousands of villagers to move to safety.

Operations at the airport – the second-busiest in Indonesia – have been disrupted since the weekend when Mount Agung, in east Bali, began belching out huge clouds of smoke and ash, and authorities warned of an “imminent threat” of a major eruption.

“Bali’s international airport started operating normally,” air traffic control provider AirNav said in a statement, adding that operations resumed at 2:28 p.m. (0628 GMT).

The reopening of the airport, which is about 60 km (37 miles) away from Mount Agung, followed a downgrade in an aviation warning to one level below the most serious, with the arrival of more favorable winds.

“We really hope that we actually get a flight, maybe today or tomorrow, to get back home,” said tourist Nathan James, from the Australian city of Brisbane, waiting at the airport.

A large plume of white and grey ash and smoke hovered over Agung on Wednesday, after night-time rain partially obscured a fiery glow at its peak.

President Joko Widodo begged villagers living in a danger zone around the volcano to move to emergency centers.

Sutopo Purwo Nugroho of the disaster mitigation agency said about 43,000 people had heeded advice to take shelter, but an estimated 90,000 to 100,000 people were living in the zone.

The decision to resume flights followed an emergency meeting at the airport, when authorities weighing up weather conditions, tests and data from AirNav and other groups.

Flight tracking website FlightRadar24 later showed there were flights departing and arriving at the airport although its general manager said if the wind changed direction the airport could be closed again at short notice.

Agung looms over eastern Bali to a height of just over 3,000 meters (9,800 feet). Its last major eruption in 1963 killed more than 1,000 people and razed several villages.

Ash coated cars, roofs and roads to the southeast of the crater on Wednesday and children wore masks as they walked to school.

‘UNPREDICTABLE’

Singapore Airlines Ltd <SIAL.SI> said it would resume flights while Australia’s Qantas Airways Ltd <QAN.AX> said it and budget arm Jetstar would run 16 flights to Australia on Thursday to ferry home 3,800 stranded customers.

Singapore Airlines and SilkAir were seeking approval to operate additional flights on Thursday, while budget offshoot Scoot said it would cease offering land and ferry transport to the city of Surabaya, on Java island, as it resumed flights to Bali.

Virgin Australia plans to operate up to four recovery flights to Denpasar on Thursday.

“As the volcanic activity remains unpredictable, these flights may be canceled at short notice,” it said on its website.

The head of the weather agency at Bali airport, Bambang Hargiyono, said winds had begun to blow from the north to south, carrying ash toward the neighboring island of Lombok.

He said the wind was expected to shift toward the southeast “for the next three days”, which should allow flights to operate.

As many as 430 domestic and international flights had been disrupted on Wednesday.

Authorities are urging villagers living up to 10 km (6 miles) from the volcano to move to emergency centers, but some are reluctant to leave homes and livestock.

“Those in the 8- to 10-km radius must truly take refuge for safety,” Widodo told reporters.

“There must not be any victims.”

Interactive graphic: ‘Mount Agung awakens’ click http://tmsnrt.rs/2AayRVh

Graphic: ‘Ring of fire’ click http://tmsnrt.rs/2AzR9jv

(Additional reporting by Kanupriya Kapoor in KARANGASEM Jamie Freed in SINGAPORE and Agustinus Beo Da Costa in JAKARTA; Writing by Fergus Jensen and Ed Davies; Editing by Clarence Fernandez, Robert Birsel)

Tourists, authorities feel the heat as Bali volcano keeps airport closed

Tourists, authorities feel the heat as Bali volcano keeps airport closed

By Kanupriya Kapoor and Slamet Kurniawan

KARANGASEM, Indonesia (Reuters) – Indonesia kept the airport on Bali closed on Tuesday as ash from an erupting volcano swept the holiday island, leaving thousands of tourists stranded as authorities tried to persuade villagers living nearby to leave their homes.

A total of 443 flights, both domestic and international, were affected by the closure of the airport, about 60 km (37 miles) from Mount Agung which is spewing smoke and ash high into the sky.

“Aircraft flight channels are covered with volcanic ash,” the transport ministry said in a statement, citing aviation navigation authorities.

The airport – the second-biggest in Indonesia – will be closed at least until 7 a.m. on Wednesday (2300 GMT on Tuesday), the ministry said.

Frustration at the airport was starting to boil over, with an estimated 2,000 people attempting to get refunds and reschedule tickets.

“There are thousands of people stranded here at the airport,” said Nitin Sheth, a tourist from India. “They have to go to some other airport and they are trying to do that, but the government or authorities here are not helping.”

Others were more relaxed.

“No, there’s not a lot of information … very little. (But) it’s all right. We’re on holidays so it doesn’t matter. We don’t know what’s going to happen but we can get back to the bar and have another drink,” said Matthew Radix from Perth.

The airport operator said 201 international flights and 242 domestic ones had been hit.

Ten alternative airports had been prepared for airlines to divert inbound flights, including in neighboring provinces, the operator said, adding it was helping people make alternative bookings and helping stranded travelers.

The airport on Lombok island, to the east of Bali, had reopened, authorities said, as wind blew ash westward, towards the southern coast of Java island.

PRAYERS

Agung towers over eastern Bali to a height of just over 3,000 meters (9,800 feet). Its last eruption in 1963 killed more than 1,000 people and razed several villages.

On Tuesday, however, life went on largely as normal in surrounding villages, with residents offering prayers as the volcano sent huge billows of ash and smoke into the sky.

Some villagers who fled in September, when the alert was last raised to the highest level, have gone home despite government warnings.

On Monday, authorities said 100,000 residents living near the volcano had been ordered to get out of an 8-10 km (5-6 mile) exclusion zone, warning a larger eruption was “imminent”.

While the population in the area has been estimated at anywhere between 63,000 and 140,000, just over 29,000 people were registered at emergency centers, said Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, a spokesman for the Disaster Mitigation Agency.

“Not all people in the danger zone are prepared to take refuge,” he said.

“There are still a lot of residents staying in their homes.”

Indonesia’s Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation Center has warned that an eruption of a size similar to that seen in 1963 could send rocks bigger than a fist flying a distance of up to 8 km (5 miles), and volcanic gas a distance of 10 km (6 miles) within three minutes.

Monitoring has shown the northeastern part of Agung’s peak had swollen in recent weeks “indicating there is fairly strong pressure toward the surface”, the center said.

For interactive package on Agung eruptions, click: http://tmsnrt.rs/2hYdHiq

For graphic on the Pacific Ring of Fire, click: http://tmsnrt.rs/2BjtH6l

(Reporting by Kanupriya Kapoor, Slamet Kurniawan, Nyimas Laula and Reuters Bali stringer in BALI, and; Bernadette Christina Munthe, Cindy Silviana and Fransiska Nangoy in JAKARTA; Additional reporting by Angie Teo and Ed Davies; Writing by Fergus Jensen; Editing by Michael Perry, Robert Birsel)