Important Takeaways:
- The European Union will free up $840 billion in funding to funnel into defense across the bloc, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen announced on Tuesday.
- Dubbed “Rearm Europe,” the remarks from the European Commission’s president came hours after President Donald Trump suspended all U.S. military aid to Ukraine, widening the gulf between Washington and Kyiv and going against the fresh commitments of support from Europe for Ukraine in recent days.
- “I do not need to describe the grave nature of the threats that we face, or the devastating consequences that we will have to endure if those threats would come to pass,” von der Leyen told reporters.
- The European Commission head said she had written a letter to the leaders of the European governments to outline a “set of proposals” to “rearm Europe.”
- It details “how to use all the financial levers at our disposal in order to help member states to quickly and significantly increase expenditures in defense capabilities, urgently now, but also over [a] longer period of time, over this decade,” von der Leyen said.
- As part of the proposal, countries in the bloc will have access to loans of up to €150 billion, or just shy of $158 billion, for defense investment. The plan will also mean activating what is known as an “escape clause” for EU countries in a set of rules that currently govern how member states manage their public finances.
- …European nations are scrambling to work out how to plug huge gaps in its military capabilities that the U.S. has traditionally filled.
- Efforts to rearm will focus on air defense missiles, artillery ammunition and the systems to fire them, as well as drones and counter-drone warfare and other areas of the military, von der Leyen said.
- NATO states have less than 5 percent of the necessary air defense capabilities to protect central and Eastern Europe from large-scale attack, the Financial Times reported in May 2024.
- European officials have previously told Newsweek that air defense capacity is currently a fraction of what it should be, and a major worry.
- As Washington rewrites its relationship with the continent, there are deep and pressing concerns about whether the various leaders across the continent can come up with a coherent strategy to protect NATO’s continental countries, without U.S. involvement. European officials publicly and privately agree that defense spending must dramatically increase, but are split on how quickly this can happen, and by just how much.
- The new plan will mean member states can “massively step up their support to Ukraine,” von der Leyen remarked on Tuesday, which she translated to “immediate military equipment for Ukraine.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Zelenskyy made the concession in a lengthy statement posted to social media on Tuesday, saying Ukraine “is ready to come to the negotiating table.” He added that last week’s meeting “did not go the way it was supposed to be,” and he said “it is time to make things right.”
- “My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts,” Zelenskyy wrote.
- “We are ready to work fast to end the war, and the first stages could be the release of prisoners and truce in the sky — ban on missiles, long-ranged drones, bombs on energy and other civilian infrastructure — and truce in the sea immediately, if Russia will do the same. Then we want to move very fast through all next stages and to work with the US to agree a strong final deal,” he added.
- “We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence. And we remember the moment when things changed when President Trump provided Ukraine with Javelins. We are grateful for this,” the statement continued
- “Our meeting in Washington, at the White House on Friday, did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right. We would like future cooperation and communication to be constructive. Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it at any time and in any convenient format. We see this agreement as a step toward greater security and solid security guarantees, and I truly hope it will work effectively,” Zelenskyy concluded.
- U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron suggested a freeze on strikes from the air, sea and on energy infrastructure for 30 days in Ukraine. Macron told French media the window could be used to negotiate a wider peace deal.
- Trump’s White House has yet to weigh in on the proposal.
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Important Takeaways:
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on Tuesday.
- It is obvious that the US has been the main supplier of military aid to Kiev, Peskov noted, adding that if the US were to relinquish this role or suspend supplies altogether it would “probably be the best contribution to the cause of peace.”
- The spokesman said that if the US had indeed stopped all military aid to Ukraine, it would mean that Kiev would effectively lose the vast majority of its ammunition, equipment and intelligence.
- “If this really is so… then perhaps, without indulging in excessive optimism, we can modestly hope that this could encourage the Kiev regime to lean towards attempts to resolve the situation through peaceful means,” Peskov told Rossiya 1 TV journalist Pavel Zarubin.
- According to Bloomberg, Trump has ordered a freeze on all military aid to Ukraine, which includes equipment already designated for delivery, as well as weapons in transit on aircraft and ships or waiting in transit areas in Poland. The New York Times reported that the president’s order, which has already taken effect, affects more than $1 billion in “arms and ammunition in the pipeline and on order.”
- Meanwhile, the Washington Post claimed that in addition to stopping weapons shipments to Kiev, Washington is also considering the termination of intelligence sharing and training for Ukrainian troops and pilots.
- Zelensky stated on Sunday that peace between Ukraine and Russia was still “very, very far away,” prompting even more ire from Trump, who said it was “the worst statement that could have been made” by the Ukrainian leader.
- Trump warned that “America will not put up with it for much longer,” and suggested that Zelensky “doesn’t want there to be Peace as long as he has America’s backing.”
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Important Takeaways:
- On Friday, Ukraine’s President Zelensky made just such a miscalculation by presuming to lecture President Trump and Vice President Vance while in the White House, and the fallout from that is still landing on the Ukrainian leader’s track-suited shoulders.
- Now British Prime Minister Keir Starmer… proclaiming that the United Kingdom would not only pledge billions in support for Ukraine but would also put British boots on the ground in Ukraine.
- Keir Starmer has said he is ready to put British “boots on the ground” to maintain the peace if a deal is done to end the war in Ukraine.
- The prime minister said he was working with French president Emmanuel Macron to come up with a plan to present to Donald Trump aimed at finally ending the three-year-long conflict.
- He was speaking after hosting an emergency summit of world leaders at Lancaster House in London at which he also set out his plan to build a “coalition of the willing” to deter Russia from attacking its neighbor again.
- Now, there’s a condition: British “troops on the ground and planes in the air,” as the PM points out, would be after a peace deal.
- Starmer said Europe was “doubling down in our support” of Ukraine as he announced that Britain would donate a further £1.6 billion in export finance to the country so it can by 5,000 air defense missiles to be made in Belfast.
- The PM said: “We are at a crossroads in history. This is not a moment for more talk, it is time to act, time to step up and lead and unite around a new plan for a just and enduring peace.”
- Declaring that any peace deal “must be backed by strength”, Starmer said: “We will go further to develop a coalition of the willing to defend a deal in Ukraine and to guarantee the peace.
- Have PM Starmer and President Macron, who apparently is in on this, considered what might happen if things go sideways? What if British or French troops are shot at, even inadvertently, by Russian forces? What if a few young British or French troops were injured or killed? What then? Would the UK and France invoke NATO Article Five? Would they expect all of NATO, including the United States, to suddenly pile on Russia? Russia, we might note, has a primary ally – what, in this instance, might China do?
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Important Takeaways:
- Zelensky’s legitimacy is increasingly in question
- Here’s why Russia and the US can’t force the Ukrainian leader to resign – at least for now
- Zelensky’s departure is far from certain. For him to resign, at least two of three critical conditions must be met:
- The key players in the Ukraine conflict – Russia, the US, and the European Union – must want him to go.
- The Ukrainian political elite must push for his resignation.
- Zelensky himself must see a reason to step down.
- At present, none of these conditions are fully in place.
- The US and Russia have seemingly converged on a three-stage process: ceasefire, elections, peace talks. Reports indicate that an informal consensus is emerging in both capitals. However, neither side has explicitly acknowledged a unified stance, likely because the negotiations are still in their early stages and have yet to formally address Ukraine.
- The European Union remains the wildcard. Brussels is adamant that Ukraine must be supported, regardless of Washington’s position. This provides Zelensky with an alternative power base, meaning that even if Russia and the US agree on his departure, he could still count on support from Europe to justify staying in power.
- Does Ukraine want Zelensky to stay?
- Polling during wartime is notoriously unreliable, making it difficult to assess whether the Ukrainian people truly want Zelensky to step down.
- Ukrainian political opposition also remains fragmented. Many figures within the ruling elite bear grudges against Zelensky, but their ability to effectively challenge his authority is questionable. The Ukrainian parliament recently embarrassed Zelensky by failing to pass a resolution reaffirming his legitimacy at the first attempt – an incident that took place in front of EU representatives. But this is hardly a coordinated coup attempt; rather, it underscores the lack of unity among his detractors.
- Will Zelensky leave willingly?
- The simplest answer is no. Zelensky appears convinced that his leadership is indispensable to Ukraine’s survival. He has consistently rejected any suggestion of early elections or stepping down voluntarily. His statements on the matter are often deflective, saying he would consider resignation only if Ukraine was admitted to NATO – an impossible condition. This suggests he will cling to power for as long as possible.
- The coming crisis: What could change?
- While Zelensky currently holds his ground, shifting battlefield dynamics could force his hand. Ukraine’s military situation continues to deteriorate, its resources are stretched thin, and Western support is no longer guaranteed. The new US administration is unlikely to display the same patience as the Biden White House. If Ukraine fails to turn the tide, Zelensky may face a stark choice: hold elections before the situation becomes catastrophic or risk being overthrown in a palace coup orchestrated by Ukrainian elites desperate to preserve their own futures.
- The latter scenario would not be unusual in history. Leaders who refuse to acknowledge military defeat often find themselves ousted by their own ranks. If Zelensky continues to insist on leading Ukraine down an unwinnable path, he may well meet the same fate.
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Important Takeaways:
- Diplomats from the United States and Russia met and spoke at the U.S. consul general’s residence in Istanbul, Turkey for over six hours on Thursday, the latest meeting between the countries in a bid to normalize diplomatic relations before moving on to the larger matter of finding a solution to the Ukraine War. The discussions were said to have been focused on allowing the two countries to return to being able to properly operate embassies in each other’s’ nations.
- An agreement was reached to hold further meetings although when and where was not stated.
- Thursday’s talk followed another in-person meeting between Russian and American delegations in Saudi Arabia last week, the first such meeting between the nations in years, and a phone call between President Donald Trump and President Vladimir Putin before that. An ambition of these talks is to get diplomatic relations between the states to a point where the two leaders are able to meet in-person to negotiate an end to the Ukraine War, but no meaningful progress on that has been made public.
- One facet of talks so far has been grumbling from Europe and Ukraine in particular about their not having been invited to these talks. While U.S. diplomats have been mollifying, pointing out these first meetings are specifically about American-Russian relations and Europe and Ukraine will have a seat at the table when relevant in the future, Russia’s Putin was more direct, warning European leaders not to attempt to undermine the process.
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Important Takeaways:
- President Trump said Monday that his meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron marked an “important step” in ending the war between Russia and Ukraine…
- Trump and Macron, who have a long-standing relationship after both came to office in 2017, held a bilateral meeting and news conference Monday afternoon, after participating in a Group of Seven leadership call earlier in the day to mark three years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Macron is the first European leader to visit the White House since Mr. Trump returned to office last month.
- “France is America’s oldest ally, our cherished partnership has been a force for freedom, prosperity and peace from the very beginning,” Mr. Trump said. “We’re now working on some very interesting developments, one in particular, as you know, the war between Russia and Ukraine.”
- Citing France’s support during the American Revolution and during World War II, Mr. Trump said the purpose of the meeting was to “end another battle,” the war between Russia and Ukraine.
- “The horrors of this gruesome and bloody war can scarcely be underestimated,” Mr. Trump said, citing the Russians and Ukrainians who have “needlessly died.” “It’s time to end this bloodletting and restore peace, and I think we’re going to do it.”
- Trump called his meeting with Macron an “important step” toward achieving a permanent peace between Russia and Ukraine. He said it’s in the best interest of the U.S., Ukraine, Russia and Europe more broadly to “stop the killing now and bring the world to peace.” He added that he hopes his legacy will be of “a peacemaker and a unifier.”
- Macron said with the new U.S. administration, there’s “good reason for President Trump to reengage with President Putin,” while warning that Putin could violate a negotiated peace. Macron said “being strong and having deterrence capacities is the only way to be sure it will be respected,” saying the U.S. “has the capacity to do so.”
- “A lot of my European colleagues are ready to be engaged, but we do need this American backup because this is part of the credibility of the security guarantees. And this is our collective deterrence capacity,” Macron said. “And I have the feeling that the president has this capacity.”
- Macron made clear the shared objective of peace, while praising the “bravery and resistance of the Ukrainian people.” The French president also touted the friendship between the U.S. and France, along with his personal friendship with Mr. Trump, while noting that this is a “very important moment for Europe.” Macron said European leaders are willing to be a “stronger partner” and do more on defense and security within the continent.
- Trump is also set to meet with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at the White House later this week.
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Important Takeaways:
- Ukraine will not be granted NATO membership, but rather will serve as a “buffer” between the US-led military bloc and Russia, once the conflict with Moscow is over, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has predicted.
- Since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Budapest has consistently criticized the EU’s weapons deliveries to Ukraine. The Hungarian government has long advocated engaging Moscow in dialogue instead, with Orban repeatedly calling for sanctions imposed on Russia to be lifted.
- Delivering his annual state of the nation address in Budapest on Saturday, the prime minister said that the conflict, which “is on its way to its end,” is about “bringing the territory called Ukraine, which until then was a buffer zone, a buffer state between NATO and Russia, under NATO control.”
- “Ukraine, or what remains of it, will once again be a buffer zone. It will not be a NATO member,” Orban predicted.
- “Why European and American liberals thought that the Russians would stand idly by is still a mystery,” the official remarked, claiming that the “experiment has failed.”
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Important Takeaways:
- NATO was forced to scramble its warplanes in Poland today as Vladimir Putin used strategic bombers and missiles to attack neighboring Ukraine – even as Vladimir Putin insists he wants peace ‘as soon as possible’.
- Putin’s air force deployed Tu-95MS nuclear-capable strategic bombers to pound targets across Ukraine, causing panic in Kyiv as residents rushed for the metro underground shelters.
- Explosions were heard in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Sumy, as well as in several towns across the regions of Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv. Drones were also used by Russia, with several people reportedly suffering injuries.
- Warsaw’s armed forces operation command headquarters ordered NATO jets to patrol Polish airspace as Russian bombers and missiles soared over Ukraine amid fears they could approach the Polish border.
- ‘Attention, due to the activity of long-range aviation of the Russian Federation, striking targets located, in particular, in the west of Ukraine, military aviation has begun to operate in the airspace of Poland,’ the command headquarters said.
- Ground-based air defenses and radar reconnaissance systems were also ‘put on alert’.
- It comes just one day after a US B-52 bomber flew a sortie less than 50 miles from the Russian border in a show of strength on the third anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine.
- The B-52 jet, which is described as providing the US with ‘immediate nuclear and conventional global strike capability’, flew from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire to the frontline NATO state and was flanked by F35s and F-A18 fighters.
- The planes jetted in formation over soldiers and tanks as a military parade of over 1,000 troops from NATO and the Estonia’s Defense Forces took place in the Estonian capital of Tallinn.
- February 24 marked three years since Russian troops invaded Ukraine, and is also Estonian Independence Day.
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Important Takeaways:
- By all accounts the hold-up in the US and Ukraine potentially agreeing to a final mineral deal has been President Zelensky’s refusal to sign – seeing in it selling off Ukraine’s economic sovereignty; however, sources on both sides strongly suggest a deal is very close.
- “I will not sign what ten generations of Ukrainians will have to pay back,” said President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a press conference Sunday. President Trump is seeking access to some $500 billion in the country’s minerals, including rare earths, to repay Washington for its wartime aid.
- Kiev as well as many of its European partners have complained that the deal offers no clear security guarantees or even the promise of future aid in return. Instead, it appears set up to repay the US billions in past aid, and Ukrainian officials and the media have described it as punitive.
- Still, there appears to have been some weekend progress, and the Zelensky government knows it’s in no position to fiercely push back, also given that the Trump administration is essentially calling for a near-future change in leadership at this point, having blasted Zelensky as a ‘dictator’.
- A fresh description from US officials involved say the deal will commit to a “free, sovereign and secure” Ukraine and achieving a “lasting peace” as part of it. This will include the US agreeing to “durable partnership” between Washington and Kiev, the texts show as reported by Bloomberg.
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