Important Takeaways:
- The U.S. embassy in Ukraine cited “specific information of a potential significant air attack” on Wednesday morning, ordering its citizens in the country to shelter in place, as tensions between America and the Russian Federation rise ever higher.
- The American embassy compound in western Kyiv was closed on Wednesday morning, with a convoy of diplomatic vehicles apparently evacuating the buildings. A message posted by the embassy staff stated it had received “specific information of a potential significant air attack” that was thought to be planned for Wednesday. The closure was out of an “abundance of caution”, they said, but nevertheless embassy staff were told to shelter in place and American citizens in Ukraine told to be prepared to take shelter.
- Advice given by the embassy to Americans in Ukraine stated they should now: “Identify shelter locations in advance of any air alert… Immediately take shelter if an air alert is announced”.
- Spain and Greece have also closed their embassies this morning and the British government is considering whether to close theirs, too.
- The so-called “unusual” embassy closure comes just 24 hours after Ukraine launched what appears to be its first U.S.-made ATACMS ballistic missile into Russia, as opposed to Russian-occupied land in Ukraine, where such weapons have hitherto been targeted.
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Important Takeaways:
- The US has been given a chilling ‘WW3 by Christmas’ warning by pro-Putin spokesperson Sergey Markov.
- Western allies, also including Britain and France, have taken a “big jump” towards a nuclear conflict by giving Ukraine permission to fire Western long-range missiles into Kremlin territory, Markov claims.
- A regular Putin “mouthpiece”, Markov warned that the shock move by President Joe Biden could mean that Britons could be facing a Christmas in shelters.
- The threat, in an interview on the BBC Radio 4’s The World At One, was also echoed by President-Elect Donald Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., who suggested that those behind the move to approve Ukraine’s use of the missiles wanted to “make sure they got World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives”.
- President Biden’s move, however, has been welcomed by Ukraine, by senior UK defense sources and by many European leaders.
- The move will allow Ukraine to fire US ATACM missiles, UK Storm Shadow missiles and French Scalp missiles into Kremlin territory.
- Speaking to BBC Radio 4, he said: “My reaction [to the White House’s decision] was awful, I couldn’t sleep well because I am just afraid nuclear war is coming.
- “This decision of United States, Great Britain and France is not a step towards nuclear war it is a big jump to nuclear war, nuclear catastrophe.
- “It is a very dangerous decision. The point is these rocket-missiles cannot be fired by the Ukrainian army, technically.
- “Because, these rocket-missiles need to have very good map of the Russian territory and only the US has this map, even Great Britain and France does not have this map.”
- “So, we regard this as the start of a direct war by Britain, America and France against Russia, another nuclear power.
- “American rocket missiles against our territory. This is a clear escalation of the war.”
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Important Takeaways:
- European nations are gearing up for an all-out war on the continent as Ukraine launched US-made missiles into Russia for the first time and Vladimir Putin officially lowered the threshold for Moscow to consider a nuclear strike.
- Germany’s foreign minister yesterday vowed her country ‘will not be intimidated’ by Putin…
- According to a 1,000-page document entitled ‘Operationsplan Deutschland’, Germany would reportedly host hundreds of thousands of troops from NATO countries and serve as a logistics hub for sending huge quantities of military equipment, food and medicine toward the front.
- A report by Der Spiegel in the summer said as many as 800,000 soldiers from the security bloc could be hosted by Germany as they transit to posts further East.
- The German army is also instructing companies and civilians on how to protect key infrastructure and mobilize for national defense, envisaging a situation in which Russia expands drone flights, spying operations and sabotage attacks across Europe.
- Businesses have been advised to create crisis plans detailing employee responsibilities during emergencies and will be instructed to stockpile diesel generators or install wind turbines to ensure energy independence.
- Finland reminded its citizens of their ‘national defense obligation’ and recently launched a new information website, while Sweden laid out a detailed guide on how to seek shelter and what to do in case of a nuclear attack.
- Putin yesterday signed off on an updated version of the Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine that broadens the scope for Moscow to turn to its fearsome atomic arsenal on the same day that US-made missiles rained down on Russian soil.
- The new document, first announced in September, allows Putin’s strategic forces to deploy their devastating weapons if Russia or Belarus is threatened by a non-nuclear nation supported by a nuclear power.
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Important Takeaways:
- Two subsea telecoms cables in the Baltic Sea have been damaged in a suspected act of Russian sabotage, highlighting the fragility of the world’s data networks.
- A 730-mile (1,170km) C-Lion1 cable carrying data between Germany and Finland was severed on Monday.
- Meanwhile, a 135-mile (218km) internet link between Lithuania and Sweden’s Gotland Island stopped working on Sunday, according to Sweden’s Telia Group.
- “No one believes that the cables were accidentally damaged,” said Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defense minister.
- “We have to assume, without certain information, that the damage is caused by sabotage.”
- Germany and Finland said they were “deeply concerned” by the damage to the C-Lion1 cable, which is run by Finnish state-controlled cyber security and telecoms company Cinia.
- “Our European security is not only under threat from Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors,” a joint statement read.
- The economic damage caused by the loss of data services from a cable is difficult to estimate, but according to a recent report by Gallagher, it can quickly reach billions of dollars.
- The incident is the latest in a series of mysterious disruptions to undersea cables that have been linked to Russia.
- It comes amid deepening tensions with the West over the Ukraine war.
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Important Takeaways:
- Ukraine has carried out its first strike on Russian territory with US-supplied long-range missiles just days after the Biden administration gave Kyiv the green light despite fears it could escalate the conflict beyond control.
- A fiery explosion at an ammunition depot in Karachev around 75 miles from the Ukrainian border in Russia’s Bryansk region lit up the night sky early this morning on what is the 1,000th day of war in Ukraine.
- Kyiv is yet to officially confirm the ATACMS strike, but Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed they shot down five missiles. A sixth missile was damaged but ultimately landed on the military facility, it said.
- The reports emerged within minutes of the Kremlin threatening a ‘nuclear response’ should Ukraine hit targets on Russian soil with Western-supplied long-range munitions.
- ‘The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against it with the use of conventional weapons,’ Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Russia this morning.
- His statement followed Vladimir Putin’s approval of an updated nuclear doctrine that allows his strategic forces to deploy nuclear weapons if Russian or Belarusian territory is threatened by a non-nuclear nation supported by a nuclear power.
- Threats that could make Russia’s leadership consider a nuclear strike include an attack with conventional missiles, drones or other aircraft, according to the updated document.
- A Ukrainian strike on Russian territory with US-supplied missiles meets these criteria, raising fears that Moscow may now consider a dramatic escalation in the conflict.
- … ‘if anyone has the urge to launch ATACMS, SCALP, Storm Shadow missiles… there will be essentially nothing left of America trying to pull us into escalation.
- ‘There will be no Biden and no Trump. The American people and we know this perfectly well.’
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Important Takeaways:
- The United States allowing its long-range tactical missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia for the first time would “inevitably lead to a serious escalation,” Kremlin figures warn after Washington D.C. appears to brief one of President Biden’s final acts in office will be to permit such attacks.
- Russia warned of dire consequences if Ukraine used long-range U.S.-made ATACMS missiles to strike strategic targets deep inside the Federation, but also confidence it would be able to foil the attacks in the first place. The responses came after claims were published in the beltway-interest newspapers favored for leaks by the U.S. intelligence community at the weekend that U.S. President Joe Biden would permit Ukraine to use the American Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles to strike targets within Russia.
- Until now, the system was permitted for Kyiv to strike Russian targets inside Ukraine, but deeper strikes inside Russia had been prohibited over fears using American weapons to directly attack the Russian Federation would lead to Russia treating the U.S. as a direct combatant in the conflict. Ukraine sees hitting Russia inside Russia as essential as it would theoretically allow them to destroy Russian weapons before they have a chance to join battle.
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Important Takeaways:
- North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 soldiers to assist Russia in its war against Ukraine, according to assessments from G20 nations reported by Digi24.
- The move would deepen the alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, reflecting growing cooperation between the two nations.
- Sources familiar with these evaluations stated that such a deployment is not imminent. If it happens, the soldiers would likely be sent in phases, with troops rotating over time rather than being deployed all at once.
- This approach would help sustain combat effectiveness and minimize losses.
- The figure of 100,000 soldiers indicates that Putin may be preparing for a prolonged conflict. This potential reinforcement would complement military supplies already provided by North Korea, including artillery shells and ammunition.
- The growing military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang have raised concerns among international observers. Experts warn that deeper cooperation could further destabilize the region and extend the war in Ukraine.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier said that it was up to representatives of supplier countries to enter flight data into long-range Western missiles. Therefore, Moscow will see the Pentagon responsible for ATACMS strikes, the Russian President said.
- Indeed, the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot independently prepare strikes with the use of long-range Western missiles. Ukrainian military specialists would need to obtain data from Western reconnaissance satellites first. Ultimately, permission to use long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia would indicate NATO’s direct participation in the hostilities.
- This suggests that Ukraine may launch ATACMS missiles from positions located deep in Kiev-controlled territories. The US missiles will thus be able to hit Kursk, Voronezh, and parts of the Oryol region of Russia.
- Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, which Kyiv also received from the West, have a range of up to 300 kilometers. These missiles, in their current configuration, cannot reach Moscow or Tula. There are Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles with a range of up to 560 kilometers, but the West did not transfer modifications of those missiles to Kyiv.
- French publication Le Figaro wrote that Paris and London allowed Kyiv to use Anglo-French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG air-to-surface cruise missiles to strike Russia. At the same time, a source of RBC-Ukraine reported in August that London could give such permission only with the consent of France, Germany and the United States, since Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles use technologies from these countries.
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Important Takeaways:
- It was revealed last month that 12,000 North Korean troops had been sent to Ukraine to fight on behalf of Russia. Now, they are reported to have been deployed to Kursk as part of the Russian counter-offensive, while Pyongyang this week ratified a landmark new defense pact with Moscow.
- There were already indications that North Korea had provided significant materiel to the Russian war effort, including 8 million rounds of 122-millimeter and 152-millimeter ammunition and a number of ballistic missiles, according to figures from CSIS.
- But the deployment of soldiers – apparently to assist the 50,000 Russian troops – is a serious escalation.
- The implications could go further than that, however – including for the security of the Indo-Pacific, and particularly South Korea. Units that fight alongside Russian troops may get the opportunity to learn modern warfare techniques and tactics.
- … in a statement to Business Insider that “Russia is training North Korean soldiers to operate strike UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] and reconnaissance drones”.
- Such training in the use of drones, counter-drone techniques, GPS jamming and other electronic warfare technologies in such a front-line environment – combined with Russian technology transfers – may end up serving as a catalyst for the modernization of North Korea’s large but famously outdated army.
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Important Takeaways:
- Ukraine has the resources and expertise to indigenously produce a large quantity of nuclear weapons at short notice if it was forced to do so, a briefing document meant for top government figures allegedly says, a report states.
- A briefing produced for the Ukrainian defense ministry allegedly explaining to policy makers that the country could rapidly develop rudimentary nuclear bombs from spent fuel rods and long-range ballistic missiles to carry them states this could be achieved in just months.
- Claimed as an exclusive by The Times of London, the document is presented by the newspaper as illustrating a potential backstop for the country to defend itself from the Russian Federation if the United States under a Trump Presidency withdrew military support. President Trump has made clear he wishes to bring peace to Europe quickly, but has not yet revealed how. Many of the options open to him do not align with the official Kyiv policy as the only acceptable end to the war being total victory over Russia.
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