Important Takeaways:
- Ukraine targets Russia’s mercenaries saying ‘there is no reason for Koreans to fight and die for Putin’
- “Today, we already have preliminary data that the Russians have begun to use North Korean soldiers in their assaults. A significant number of them,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Saturday.
- Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) reported the North Koreans were embedded with Russian Marines and Airborne troops – elite units – in the Russian region of Kursk, which Ukraine has counter-invaded.
- Zelenskyy posted that Russia was adopting gruesome tactics to obscure the loss of North Korean soldiers.
- “After the battles with our guys, the Russians are also trying to… literally burn the faces of the killed North Korean soldiers,” he wrote on Telegram.
- He added, “There is no reason for Koreans to fight and die for Putin. And even after their death, all that awaits them from Russia is mockery.”
- There were no statements from Russia or North Korea on these first casualties of Korean mercenaries.
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Important Takeaways:
- A Ukrainian official has taken credit for the assassination of Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, the commander of Russia’s chemical, biological and radiation defense forces, and his assistant, who were killed in an explosion in Moscow on Tuesday.
- Russia’s Investigative Committee said the explosive device was placed in a scooter near a residential apartment block on Ryazansky Avenue and triggered remotely, according to The Associated Press. The bombing came one day after Ukrainian Security Services charged Kirillov with crimes.
- The bomb had the power of roughly 300 grams of TNT, according to Russian state news agency Tass.
- Kirillov was charged by the SBU on Monday with using banned chemical weapons on the battlefield. Several countries had also placed him under sanctions for his role in the war against Ukraine, The AP reported.
- The SBU said it has recorded more than 4,800 uses of chemical weapons during Russia’s attack on Ukraine, which began in Feb. 2022.
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Important Takeaways:
- NATO fighter jets have been scrambled in Poland and along the Alliance’s eastern flank
- Russia staged a brutal attack on Ukraine this morning, targeting energy and military facilities to plunge civilians into darkness and misery ahead of the festive season.
- A massive Russian onslaught had been expected, but there were no immediate reports of fearsome medium range ballistic missile Oreshnik being deployed, as had been predicted, although it may yet come.
- Instead, Ukraine was hit with Iskander, Kalibr, Kinzhal [or Dagger] missiles and Iranian-designed Shahed kamikaze drones, launched from Tu-95MS strategic bombers and MiG-31Ks.
- The capital Kyiv was hit by major power cuts – and underground trains stopped running, while people huddled in metro stations to escape the bombardment.
- There were reports of an airbase being hit, along with warehouses and a plant producing drones and repairing helicopters.
- Ukraine’s national power operator Ukrenergo warned that today half the country would be without power – with temperatures of minus 5C – due to the latest Putin onslaught, ahead the Christmas festivities.
- Explosions ranged across Ukraine from Ivano-Frankivsk in the west to Kharkiv in the east.
- Among the other regions hit were Kyiv, Odesa, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Khmelnitsk, Lviv, and Ternopil.
- Russia had warned of a powerful response to a Ukrainian strike this week with US-supplied ATACMS missiles on a military airbase in Taganrog.
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Important Takeaways:
- The Biden administration might be in its final days but that doesn’t mean the flow of lethal U.S. weaponry to Ukraine shows any sign of slowing. Far from it.
- That was confirmed Monday when an additional $725 million in military assistance, including counter-drone systems and munitions for its High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), was announced by the White House.
- AP reports it is unclear whether the munitions for the HIMARS are the coveted ATACMS — the Army Tactical Missile System — but Ukraine has been pressing for more of the longer-range missiles to strike additional targets inside Russia.
- The package also includes more of the anti-personnel land mines Ukraine seeks to slow Russian and North Korean ground forces in Russia’s Kursk region and comes on the back of the billions of dollars in U.S. taxpayer funds already used to support Kiev in its fight against Russia.
- President Joe Biden has pledged to spend all of the military assistance funds Congress approved this year for Ukraine before the end of his administration on Jan. 20, which before Monday’s announcement included about $7.1 billion in weapons that would be drawn from the Pentagon’s stockpiles.
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Important Takeaways:
- China has been supporting Russia’s economy since the start of the Ukraine war by buying its oil while supplying it with everything from microelectronics to washing machines.
- Meanwhile, Beijing has been getting its own strategic benefit: a real-world case study in how to circumvent Western sanctions.
- Russia’s economy has been surprisingly resilient throughout the Ukraine war, but it has shown fresh signs of cracking under Western pressure recently. In the past week, the Russian ruble plunged to its lowest point since the early days of the conflict after the U.S. imposed new banking sanctions.
- Moscow owes much of its economic durability to its oil exports and its cooperation with Beijing, as the leaders of both countries seek to challenge the U.S.-led world order.
- “Sanctions can be really disruptive for any production sector that is enmeshed in global supply chains,” Fishman said. “That makes China highly vulnerable.”
- While the U.S. has already imposed sanctions on China, including export restrictions on advanced semiconductors and measures against telecommunications giant Huawei, a crisis over Taiwan could lead to an economic war of a different magnitude.
- Full-scale financial sanctions by the West would disrupt the country’s financial system, interrupt trade and put $3.7 trillion in Chinese overseas bank assets and reserves at risk, according to a report last year by the Atlantic Council and Rhodium Group think tanks.
- One major lesson for China from Russia’s experience has been the importance of preparation, analysts say. Before the war, Russia had sought to diversify its foreign reserves, de-dollarize its economy and build domestic financial plumbing. Even though its success was mixed, those moves helped shield the Russian economy and buy it time to adapt.
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Important Takeaways:
- North Korea has sent more than 100 KN-23 and KN-24 short-range nuclear capable ballistic missiles to Russia, according to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence.
- Pyongyang joined the fray in August and is reinforcing Moscow’s troops in Kursk after Kyiv launched an incursion in the summer. North Korea’s support has become a key, as Pyongyang assists Moscow in replenishing its weapons stockpiles.
- “The aggressor state of Russia has received more than 100 such missiles from the DPRK. The enemy first used these weapons in the war against Ukraine at the end of 2023,” said the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine.
- “Along with the missiles, Pyongyang then sent its military specialists to Russia to service the launchers and participate in war crimes against Ukraine.”
- This shipment is part of a broader effort by North Korea to support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, including other military supplies such as artillery systems and rocket launchers.
- According to South Korea’s national intelligence service, North Korea has delivered over 13,000 containers of artillery, missiles, and other conventional weapons to Russia since August, 2023.
- Samuel Cranny-Evans told Newsweek: “The relationship between Russia and North Korea is clearly developing into a much closer one with various aspects and shared goals.”
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Important Takeaways:
- One question is whether the new administration and Europe will provide security guarantees to prevent Russia from taking more territory.
- The one gold-standard security guarantee that Ukraine wants is an invitation to join NATO. But it could not get that under Mr. Biden, and an invitation is unlikely during Mr. Trump’s presidency.
- So, U.S. and European officials are discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine, such as stockpiling a conventional arsenal sufficient to strike a punishing blow if Russia violates a cease-fire.
- Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications.
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Important Takeaways:
- World ‘very close to point of no return’ – Scott Ritter
- Russia’s new Oreshnik missile is a “qualitative advancement” showing that Moscow is ready to “mirror” any Western escalation, the former UN weapons inspector has said
- Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the country’s military successfully hit a Ukrainian target with a new intermediate-range ballistic missile called the Oreshnik. The strike was a response to Kiev using US-made ATACMS and HIMARS systems, as well as British-made Storm Shadow missiles in strikes on internationally-recognized Russian territory earlier this week, he added.
- The missile launch is a clear signal to the West that Moscow was not bluffing when it said the US and its allies would not get away with aiding Kiev in striking Russia with Western-made weapons, Ritter argued.
- “The missile that they used is a nuclear-capable system. It had a conventional warhead but could be used for nuclear purposes. Putin basically said that this missile can cover all of Europe and that in the future, he will mirror every action by Ukraine and the West; that any escalation will immediately be responded to,” Ritter told the host of Judging Freedom, Andrew Napolitano.
- The former UN weapons inspector also called the development a “qualitative advancement” that brought a completely new type of weapon to the conflict between Moscow and Kiev. Everyone who believed that Russia was bluffing “has now been put on notice” that it is not, he added.
- A continuation of the current Western policy towards the Ukraine conflict and Russia would be dangerous and irresponsible under such circumstances, Ritter believes. “We are very, very close to reaching the point of no return when it comes to a nuclear war,” he warned.
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Important Takeaways:
- Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia tested a new intermediate range missile in a strike on Ukraine.
- In a surprise address to the nation, the Russian president warned Moscow “had a right” to use the missile and other weapons against countries that have allowed Kyiv to use their missiles to strike Russia, such as the US and Britain.
- Ukraine used British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to strike inside Russia for the first time, a day after using US-made ATACMs to hit a military facility 110km from the Ukrainian border.
- Putin’s surprise address came after Ukraine accused Russia of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads, for the first time in the war.
- UN weapons experts had initially cast doubt on the claim by saying that under an international convention, the Kremlin would have to inform the US more than 24 hours ahead of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile.
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Important Takeaways:
- The U.S. embassy in Ukraine cited “specific information of a potential significant air attack” on Wednesday morning, ordering its citizens in the country to shelter in place, as tensions between America and the Russian Federation rise ever higher.
- The American embassy compound in western Kyiv was closed on Wednesday morning, with a convoy of diplomatic vehicles apparently evacuating the buildings. A message posted by the embassy staff stated it had received “specific information of a potential significant air attack” that was thought to be planned for Wednesday. The closure was out of an “abundance of caution”, they said, but nevertheless embassy staff were told to shelter in place and American citizens in Ukraine told to be prepared to take shelter.
- Advice given by the embassy to Americans in Ukraine stated they should now: “Identify shelter locations in advance of any air alert… Immediately take shelter if an air alert is announced”.
- Spain and Greece have also closed their embassies this morning and the British government is considering whether to close theirs, too.
- The so-called “unusual” embassy closure comes just 24 hours after Ukraine launched what appears to be its first U.S.-made ATACMS ballistic missile into Russia, as opposed to Russian-occupied land in Ukraine, where such weapons have hitherto been targeted.
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