Steve Gray: Beijing will be Primary Beneficiary of Russia Sanctions

Matthew 24:6 “And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not alarmed, for this must take place, but the end is not yet.”

Important Takeaways:

  • China is ‘big winner’ of Russia-Ukraine war, former FBI agent who worked in China warns
  • “They’ll be the primary beneficiary of the sanctions against Russia, the yen will benefit from the decline of the ruble, and they have been given a case study of what the world’s response would look like if they were to invade Taiwan.”
  • “It would not be surprising at all to learn that this is shaping up exactly as China planned,” Gray, who spent 10 years working as a supervisory special agent focused on China and North Korea, added.
  • “From my experience as an FBI supervisory special agent working on China and North Korea, I know that the Chinese Communist Party is perpetually and patiently planning to take our place as global leaders,” he warned. “As Americans, we need to be cognizant of this threat.”
  • Although European countries have joined the U.S. in imposing hefty sanctions on Russia amid the Ukraine war, they have mostly spared Russia’s energy industry of such economic warfare, because much of Europe is dependent on Russia for energy.

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Twenty Latin American Countries Have Joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative

Important Takeaways:

  • While the US Wasn’t Looking, China Became the Dominant Power in Latin America, Right on Our Doorstep
  • Latin America took on a new trading partner: China. The region has also begun to shift in an anti-American direction, creating a big strategic problem for the United States.
  • Evan Ellis, a Latin American expert at the U.S. Army War College, Twenty Latin American nations have joined China’s Belt and Road initiative, in which China invests in a nation’s infrastructure, like the new container port China is building for Peru at the Port of Chancay.
  • China will also be supplying nations with civilian nuclear technology, helping them develop space programs, and providing them with Chinese 5G technology that experts have warned is a surveillance tool of the Chinese military.
  • China is establishing a growing number of Confucius Institutes in the region, which are school programs that teach young people Chinese language and culture and push Chinese government propaganda.
  • Ellis said China is also cultivating military ties here which it could use in any future conflict with the United States.
  • “If war ever broke out over Taiwan, they would probably not make it a war that was fought just in Asia, but they would have ways of thinking about how to use operations in the hemisphere,” Ellis warned. “It’s entirely possible that there would be certain anti-US states in the region that might welcome China in.”

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U.S. Response to Russia May Prove Too Soft for Deterring China from Similar Actions Against Taiwan

Matthew 24:6 “And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not alarmed, for this must take place, but the end is not yet.”

Important Takeaways:

  • China may take ‘wrong lessons’ from US, NATO response to Ukraine invasion: experts
  • Taiwan reported that it dispatched fighters to caution nine Chinese planes that flew into its defensive airspace on the first day of Russian’s invasion. China has conducted similar flybys in the past, but the timing remains notable.
  • China’s going to draw some of the wrong lessons here and its leaders might consider the Biden admin’s response to be more show than substance,”
  • NATO has stood back from taking direct action to stop the invasion of Ukraine, which borders on a number of NATO allies.
  • “What do you think they bring to the table – and that leaves aside the question of why would they come in?” Cheng argued. “If they won’t come into Ukraine, which borders on multiple NATO allies, in open violation of a number of formal treaty commitments that every signed – Helsinki accords, Minsk, too – why would we assume our European allies to fight and die for Taiwan when there’s no commitment to it?”

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China’s Foreign Minister Ming Jinwei States China Must Back Russia So it Gets Support Over Taiwan

Matthew 24:6 “And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not alarmed, for this must take place, but the end is not yet.”

Important Takeaways:

  • China state media editor says Beijing must back Russia over Ukraine so it gets support when it fights for Taiwan
  • “China has to back Russia up with emotional and moral support while refraining from treading on the toes of the US and EU,” Ming wrote.
  • “In the future, China will also need Russia’s understanding and support when wrestling with America to solve the Taiwan issue once and for all.”
  • China has not condemned President Vladimir Putin for ordering troops into eastern Ukraine, an act that Western powers consider to be a springboard for a full invasion of Ukraine.

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Taiwan and China are gauging America’s response in the Ukraine crisis

Matthew 24:6 “And you will hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not alarmed, for this must take place, but the end is not yet.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Taiwan watching Ukraine crisis with ‘concern and anxiety,’ says top diplomat in U.S.
  • Taipei’s representative in Washington, Bi-khim Hsiao, said “Like everyone else in the world, we are watching the situation with much concern and anxiety,” she said. “We certainly hope that the situation can be resolved peacefully through diplomatic means.
  • Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, said last month that her nation “empathized” with the plight of Ukrainians because of the military threat Taiwan faces from its powerful larger neighbor. She ordered the creation of a task force to study how tensions between Russia and Ukraine could affect Taiwan’s own long-running conflict with Beijing.
  • Former U.S. officials say China will gauge the U.S. response to Russia as a possible guide to how Washington might counter a crisis over Taiwan.
  • Hsiao said China has tried to wear down Taipei through pressure tactics, bullying and disinformation that stops short of outright military action, in what her government calls “gray zone warfare.”
  • “The Chinese have also been launching cyberattacks, disinformation, cognitive and psychological warfare on the people of Taiwan, aimed at weakening our resolve to our self-defense and also trying to sow divisions within our society,” Hsiao said.
  • Governments that have refused to sever ties with Taiwan or that have criticized Beijing have faced economic retaliation from China, including those of Lithuania and Australia, she said. Democratic countries need to rally, she said, and show China that Beijing’s “coercion” will not succeed.

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U.S. agreed to $100 million “military sales” deal with Taiwan

Matthew 24:6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come.

Important Takeaways:

  • Taiwan Receives Patriot Missiles as China’s Threats Build
  • The United States has agreed to a $100 million “military sales” deal with Taiwan, allowing them access to gain “PATRIOT air and missile defense systems” to help provide their airspace with the necessary security in light of growing Chinese threats.
  • China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian saying on Tuesday the deal “seriously undermines” China’s “sovereignty and security interests,” and “seriously” damages “China-U.S. relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”
  • The need for the contract was demonstrated on the 23rd of January when China flew “39 warplanes” into Taiwan’s air defense zone

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China’s military sends 39 planes to Taiwan’s defense zone

Matthew 24:6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come.

Important Takeaways:

  • China sends largest incursion of warplanes into Taiwan defense zone since October
  • China’s air force flew 39 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone
  • 34 fighter jets, one bomber, two electronic warfare planes and two intelligence-gathering planes.
  • China’s military did not give a reason for the missions on Sunday, but it came days after a US warship conducted a freedom of navigation exercise near the disputed Paracel Islands.

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Two US carries enter South China Sea after Chinese incursion

Matthew 24:6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come.

Important Takeaways:

  • Navy sends two carriers to disputed South China Sea
  • Two Navy aircraft carrier strike groups are conducting operations in the disputed South China Sea amid heightened tensions over recent Chinese aerial incursions near Taiwan.
  • The carrier groups led by the USS Carl Vinson and USS Abraham Lincoln are together practicing communications, anti-submarine warfare and air warfare drills and maritime interdiction operations in the strategic waterway that carries much of the world’s maritime commerce.

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Saving Taiwan means keeping an expansionist power at bay

Matthew 24:6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come.

Important Takeaways:

  • “China wanted Taiwan long before TSMC was churning out chips, and would want it even if TSMC had never existed…. It wants Taiwan because, like Nazi Germany, it is an expansionist power….” — Michael Turton, columnist, Taipei Times, January 10, 2022
  • [A]t a time when China’s Communist Party is attacking democracies, Washington cannot allow Beijing to absorb any one of them, even if it is not home to the world’s leading chipmakers.
  • “Destroying Taiwan’s democracy is essential to giving China’s Communist Party license to destroy all other democracies.” — Richard Fisher to Gatestone, January 2022.
  • If America came to the rescue of Taiwan, it would not be defending just the island; America would be defending itself.
  • America has drawn its western defense perimeter off China’s coast, and Taiwan is smack dab in the middle of that critical line, where the South China and East China Seas meet. Taiwan also protects the southern flank of America’s “cornerstone” ally in East Asia, Japan.

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China warns US over Taiwan

Matthew 24:6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come.

Important Takeaways:

  • China warns US will ‘face unbearable price’ on Taiwan
  • China claims the democratic island of Taiwan as its own territory, and has vowed to seize it one day by force if necessary.
  • Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned. “The US violated the promises made when China and the US established diplomatic relations, condoned and encouraged ‘Taiwan independence’ forces, and tried to distort and hollow out the one-China principle”
  • Under the Taiwan Act, the United States does not recognize Taiwan’s independence, yet commits to helping the island defend itself.

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