Important Takeaways:
- U.S. President Joe Biden announced more than $8 billion in military assistance for Ukraine on Thursday to help Kyiv “win this war” against Russian invaders, using a visit by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to make a major commitment.
- The aid includes the first shipment of a precision-guided glide bomb called the Joint Standoff Weapon, with a range of up to 81 miles (130 km).
- The bulk of the new aid, $5.5 billion, is to be allocated before Monday’s end of the U.S. fiscal year, when the funding authority is set to expire.
- Another $2.4 billion is under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which allows the administration to buy weapons for Ukraine from companies rather than pull them from U.S. stocks.
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Important Takeaways:
- A satellite image analyzed by CBS News shows a large crater and remnants of a possible explosion on a launchpad at Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northern Russia on Sept. 21. The crater is approximately 200 feet wide, and the site contains dark rubble and other debris indicating a large fire or explosion.
- Pavel Podvig, director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project, an arms control and nuclear weapons analysis blog, said an explosion may have occurred during the defueling of the missile as the images indicate the missile may have “exploded in the silo.”
- The Plesetsk Cosmodrome is located roughly 500 miles north of Moscow and 250 miles east of Russia’s border with Finland.
- Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment in a press briefing on Monday, Sept. 23, about the alleged explosion, saying: “We do not have any information on this matter.”
- The Sarmat is classified as a “heavy” ICBM designed to reach a target about 11,000 miles away and is capable of carrying up to 10 tons in payload, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Missile Defense Project.
- According to Russian independent news outlet Sirena, Russia has conducted six failed tests of nuclear weaponry since June, including its Poseidon torpedo and Bulava submarine-launched missile.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia and Iran are using artificial intelligence to influence the American election, U.S. intelligence officials said on Monday.
- “Foreign actors are using AI to more quickly and convincingly tailor synthetic content,” an official with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said. “The IC (intelligence community) considers AI a malign influence, accelerant, not yet a revolutionary influence tool.”
- Officials saw AI being used in overseas elections, but it has now made its way to American elections, according to intelligence officials, who says there is evidence Russian manipulated Vice President Kamala Harris’ speeches.
- Russia “has generated the most AI content related to the election, and has done so across all four mediums, text, images, audio and video,” an ODNI official said.
- “Russia is a much more sophisticated actor in the influence space in general, and they have a better understanding of how U.S. elections work and what states to target,” an ODNI official said.
- Iran has also used AI in its election influence efforts, including help in writing fake social media posts and news articles to further Iran’s objectives, which are to denigrate the former President Donald Trump’s candidacy, the official said.
- Officials have previously assessed Iran prefers that Vice President Harris win the 2024 election.
- The intelligence community assesses that AI is an “accelerant” to influence operations, but the risk to U.S. elections depends the ability of foreign actors to overcome restrictions built into many AI tools and remain undetected, develop their own sophisticated models, and strategically target and disseminate such content.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has flatly stated that any long-range missile strikes carried out by Ukraine against the territory of Russia will constitute an act of war against the Russian Federation by NATO.
- He warns that if Ukraine is empowered to strike Russia with long-range missiles supplied by NATO, the alliance would be at war with his country:
- Putin notes that Ukrainian drone attacks have already taken place within Russia, most recently in Moscow. However, “When it comes to using high-precision long-range Western-made weapons, it’s a completely different story.”
- “The Ukrainian army is not able to strike with modern long-range precision systems of Western manufacture. It cannot do this. It can only do so using intelligence from satellites, which Ukraine does not have. This is data from [European Union] satellites, or from the United States, in general from NATO,” he said.
- Putin believes only NATO servicemen can enter flight assignments for the missile systems, arguing the real question is whether NATO wants to be directly involved in the war in Ukraine or not.
- Putin’s ominous words come after Biden-Harris Secretary of State Anthony Blinken hinted that Ukraine may get the green light to use long-range missiles against Russia earlier this week.
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Important Takeaways:
- The Kremlin has issued yet more warnings following reports that the Biden administration could soon greenlight long-range attacks by Kiev forces on Russian territory using US-supplied arms.
- Both the UK and Canada are on board, we reported earlier, and British Prime Minister Ken Starmer is visiting Washington where he’s directly lobbying Biden to jump on board and grant Zelensky’s urgent request to lift all restrictions on Western weaponry.
- However, The New York Times suggests that saner minds are prevailing at this point. “President Biden’s deliberations with Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain about whether to allow Ukraine to attack Russia with long-range Western weapons were fresh evidence that the president remains deeply fearful of setting off a dangerous, wider conflict,” the publication writes.
- Let’s hope this is the case, given this is arguably the most dangerous moment and decision-point of the war to date.
- Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov on Friday added to prior Kremlin warnings, telling Rossiya 24 channel that he fears American leadership and the people are under “illusion”.
- He said they seem to think that “if there is a conflict, it will not spread to the territory of the United States of America.”
- Antonov continued by stressing that Americans can’t hide from nuclear war if this unthinkable happens. “I am constantly trying to convey to them one thesis that the Americans will not be able to sit it out behind the waters of this ocean. This war will affect everyone, so we constantly say – do not play with this rhetoric,” Antonov stated according to state media translation.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia’s move to expel British diplomats ratchets up tensions between Moscow and London, hours before Starmer lands in Washington to advance talks on getting the green light from U.S. President Joe Biden for Kyiv to use Britain’s Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of more than 250 km (155 miles), inside Russia.
- President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the West would be directly fighting with Russia if it allowed Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western-made long-range missiles, a move he said would alter the nature and scope of the conflict.
- The Kremlin said on Friday that Putin had delivered what it described as a clear and unambiguous message to the West which it was sure had been heard.
- Washington and London see Iran’s delivery of ballistic missiles to Russia to use against Ukraine, announced by Washington this week, as a dramatic escalation and it had sped up talks on Ukraine’s long-range missile use, three Western sources said. Russia and Iran have denied any such deliveries.
- Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the activities of the British embassy in Moscow had gone well beyond the Vienna diplomatic conventions.
- “More importantly, it is not just a question of formality and non-compliance with declared activities, but of subversive actions aimed at damaging our people,” Zakharova said on Telegram.
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Important Takeaways:
- Blinken stated “I can tell you that as we go forward, we will do exactly what we have already done, which is we will adjust, we’ll adapt as necessary – including with regard to the means that are at Ukraine’s disposal.”
- The question of permission for Ukraine to use long-range weapons inside of Russia is also likely to be discussed at a meeting between British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden in Washington on Friday.
- So far, the US has only given Kiev permission to use its munitions to strike inside Russian territory if the targets are just across the border from the embattled eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
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Important Takeaways:
- Ruben Brekelmans, the defense minister of The Netherlands, just gave Zelensky the approval to use their weapons to wage war on Russia and even attack Moscow. Brekelmans claimed that international law “is not limited by distance.” He added, “The right to self-defense does not end 100 kilometers from the border.” He has now placed The Netherlands in the crosshairs, being the first to authorize Ukraine to start killing civilians in Russia.
- As I have said, my fear is that they know what they are doing, and Putin has shown tremendous restraint. They want him to be overthrown by Russian Neocons, and they will not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.
- Brekelmans declared: “We have not placed any operational restrictions on Ukraine regarding distance.”
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Important Takeaways:
- China is communist North Korea’s closest ally, but has refrained from major displays of support towards the Kim regime in the past year, particularly after Pyongyang published an excoriating screed against Beijing in May for backing a statement vaguely supporting the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. North Korean diplomacy has since trended towards Russia, signing a mutual defense treaty with Moscow in July during strongman Vladimir Putin’s first visit to North Korea in decades.
- China and North Korea nonetheless rely on each other significantly for ideological and economic support. Xi’s message hoping to “strengthen communication” with Kim arrives as North Korea escalates belligerent behavior against South Korea, flooding the country with a wave of trash-filled balloons over the weekend. China, in turn, faces growing economic challenges and resistance to its geopolitical agenda from the West.
- The South Korean news agency Yonhap described Beijing and Pyongyang as “relatively estranged” in the context of the founding anniversary message and the upcoming anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries. South Korean sources have reportedly not seen any indication that the two countries will plan any “grand celebrations” together to mark the occasion.
- While still close allies, North Korea and China have kept a diplomatic distance this year compared to those prior, which appeared to expand following China participating in a summit in Seoul alongside the governments of that country and Japan in May. The trilateral summit, the ninth of its kind in modern history, united the conservative governments of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio with the Communist Party and resulted in a joint statement that outraged North Korea.
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Important Takeaways:
- Ukraine unleashed more than 140 drones on Russia overnight, officials said Tuesday, killing a woman near Moscow, grounding flights and setting off air defenses in several parts of the country.
- Russia’s ministry of defense said in a statement it had shot down 144 Ukrainian drones overnight – ’72 UAVs over Bryansk region, 20 over Moscow region, 14 over Kursk region, 13 over Tula region’, and 25 more over five other parts of the country.
- Moscow regional governor Andrey Vorobyov said in a Telegram post that a 46-year-old woman had been killed and several people wounded when a UAV damaged at least two high-rise apartment building in the Ramenskoye district of Moscow region, some 30 miles southeast of the Kremlin.
- The latest wave of drones came just a week after Ukraine suffered one of its darkest days after two ballistic missiles killed at least 51 people and injured 219 on September 3.
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