Tag Archives: rate hike

Fed officials turn focus to rate debate, eye on jobs, inflation

By Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Federal Reserve officials on Monday turned their focus towards a debate over interest rate policy that is likely to intensify in coming months, with one top official saying the conditions for a rate hike could be met next year with job growth expected to continue and inflation already pushing beyond comfortable levels.

Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said that while the Fed remains “a ways away from considering raising interest rates,” if his current outlook for the economy proves correct then the “necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022.”

His remarks come as the Fed shifts attention towards a possible clash between its hope to drive jobs as high as possible, and its concern that inflation is already running too fast.

Inflation to date already presents “much more than a ‘moderate’ overshoot of our 2% longer-run inflation objective, and I would not consider a repeat performance next year a policy success,” Clarida said.

He said economic growth should drive the unemployment rate to 3.8% by the end of next year, and “eliminate the 4.2 million ’employment gap’ relative to” the months before the pandemic.

At that point an interest rate path similar to the one laid out by Fed officials in September would “be entirely consistent” with the Fed’s new framework for hitting its 2% inflation target and reaching “maximum employment,” Clarida said in remarks prepared for presentation at the Brookings Institution.

That rate “dot plot” showed 18 Fed officials evenly split over the need to raise rates next year, with a majority showing rates rising more steadily in 2023 and 2024.

In separate remarks St. Louis Federal Reserve bank president James Bullard repeated his outlook that the Fed will need to raise rates twice next year — with U.S. job markets already so tight it is adding to inflation through growing wage and compensation costs.

“We are going to see downward pressure on the unemployment rate and we are going to continue to see a very hot jobs market with compensation rising,” Bullard said on Fox Business Network. “We’ve got quite a bit of inflation here…we definitely want to see that come down closer to our inflation target.”

“If inflation is more persistent than we are saying right now, then I think we may have to take a little sooner action in order to keep inflation under control,” Bullard .

Two other Federal Reserve bank presidents are due to speak later in the day.

(Reporting by Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir; Editing by Mark Potter and Andrea Ricci)

Fed expected to increase rates, may signal fewer hikes ahead

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Jerome Powell, his nominee to become chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks at the White House in Washington, U.S., November 2, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo

By Ann Saphir and Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, but may cut the number of hikes it anticipates next year and signal an earlier end to its monetary tightening in the face of financial market volatility and rising recession fears.

The central bank is due to announce its decision at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT) after its final two-day policy meeting of the year. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference half an hour later.

Investors widely expect the Fed will lift borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of between 2.25 percent and 2.50 percent. It would be the fourth rate hike of the year and the ninth since the central bank began its current tightening cycle in December 2015.

A rate hike on Wednesday could draw the ire of the White House. President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked the Fed for raising rates this year, saying it was undercutting his efforts to boost the economy. On Tuesday, Trump warned Fed policymakers not to “make yet another mistake.”

The Fed’s tightening is designed to reduce the monetary policy boost to a U.S. economy that is now growing much faster than central bank policymakers think it can sustain.

With the price of oil tumbling, economic growth in Europe and China slipping, and the fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package expected to fade, Fed policymakers appear ready to back away from their prior view that the economy could weather three more rate hikes next year.

Fresh Fed economic forecasts to be released along with the policy statement may suggest that two rate hikes is more likely, economists say. Traders of interest rate futures do not even think the Fed will manage one hike.

“You are at an inflection point,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust. “You are most likely seeing growth slowing and you don’t know how much growth and what kind of growth is left over after the fiscal stimulus wears off. And that’s why they don’t know if they need zero, one, or more rate hikes.”

U.S. stocks were broadly higher Wednesday morning on investor optimism the Fed would signal it was near the end of its tightening cycle. The S&P 500 index & SPX has tumbled more than 12 percent since late September and, barring a turnaround, is on pace for its poorest December performance since 1931.

With borrowing costs after Wednesday’s expected rate hike close to, if not in, the broad range that Fed officials have identified as “neutral” for a healthy economy, policymakers are also likely to emphasize that future rate-setting decisions will hinge on new economic data.

That may be particularly important as data pulls the central bank in different directions, with a strong labor market and robust output suggesting the need for higher rates, and a weaker global economy and U.S. bond yields suggesting not.

The divergence between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world was cast into stark relief after FedEx Corp slashed its profit outlook on Tuesday. FedEx, seen as a bellwether for global trade, flagged a litany of issues including a Brexit-led slowdown in the United Kingdom, a contraction in the German economy and slowing China demand due to an ongoing trade spat with the United States.

FORWARD GUIDANCE

Economists say the Fed will probably modify or remove from its policy statement a reference to the likelihood that “further gradual increases” in its key overnight lending rate will be needed.

Doing so would mark one more step in the Fed’s march away from its reliance on forward guidance to shape market expectations in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession.

It could also help the central bank guard against criticism, whether from Trump or others, by allowing Powell to point to the economic realities on the ground as forcing his hand on any future rate hikes.

“They want to get to the place where they can say all decisions are data-dependent,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Standish Mellon Asset Management.

(Editing by Paul Simao)

North American commercial property insurance rates seen rising sharply in 2018

- Interstate highway 45 is submerged from the effects of Hurricane Harvey seen during widespread flooding in Houston, Texas, U.S. August 27, 2017.

By Suzanne Barlyn

(Reuters) – North American commercial property insurance rates could rise by as much as 25 percent during 2018 for properties that suffered catastrophe losses this year, according to a report on Monday by insurance brokerage Willis Towers Watson.

The commercial property insurance market, which has been soft during recent years, is now heading toward a correction, largely due to hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria, which together triggered one of the most destructive hurricane seasons in history, Willis Towers Watson said.

Rates for commercial properties that were not damaged, but located in catastrophe-prone areas, may increase between 10 and 20 percent, while the cost of coverage for properties in other locations could increase by up to 5 percent, Willis Towers Watson said.

Insurers around the globe are looking to raise rates after what is likely to have been their most costly quarter on record. American International Group Inc & AIG. said on Friday it would pursue double-digit rate increases and bolster reinsurance, following $3 billion in third-quarter catastrophe losses.

Hurricanes Irma and Maria alone caused as much as $135 billion in insured losses, according to modeling firm AIR Worldwide. Earthquakes in Mexico could cost billions more.

Other insurers pursuing rate increases include the Travelers Companies Inc and Chubb Ltd .

“The marketplace is going to react, and buyers need to be ready,” Willis Towers Watson wrote in the report. Insurers will have a clearer sense of their losses when policy renewals begin next year, the company said.

Auto liability rates may increase between 3 and 8 percent as insurers continue to ratchet up rates because of higher accident rates due to distracted driving and rising costs to fix damaged vehicles, Willis Towers Watson said.

Most buyers of cyber insurance, which covers certain damages if a company is hacked, will face modest increases when they renew, triggered by growth in the sector. “The cleanest risks may still see low single-digit decreases,” the report said.

 

(Reporting by Suzanne Barlyn in New York; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

 

Rookies and robots brace for first UK rate rise since 2007

Office lights are on at dusk in the Canary Wharf financial district, London, Britain,

By Fanny Potkin and Polina Ivanova

LONDON (Reuters) – Financial markets braced this week for what could be the Bank of England’s first rate rise in a decade – a step into the unknown for a generation of young traders who started work after 2007 but also for the state-of-the-art technology they use.

After a decade that included a global financial crash, numerous investigations into market collusion and relentless automation, trading floors at banks in London have been transformed in ways not obvious at first glance.

The newest kid on the block is not necessarily the rookie trader with a PhD in physics but the latest computer model or algorithm. How these models will perform under the almost novel circumstances of tightening monetary policy is as much a question as how the human neophytes will react.

Using past market data, assessments of demand, valuation models and even measures of how upbeat news headlines are, computers crunch the numbers, game the scenarios and buy or sell in the blink of an eye.

But shocks such as Brexit have shown that computer-driven trading can end in stampedes, or so-called flash crashes.

“You’ve got to weigh up the strength of the traders and the strength of the algorithms that have been developed and whether they can manage this kind of a process when the rate hike does come in,” said Benjamin Quinlan, CEO of financial services strategy consultancy Quinlan & Associates.

At Citibank’s expansive trading floor in London, the dealing room doesn’t look much different from a decade ago with traders hunched in front of banks of screens, the odd national flag perched on top, and television screens on mute.

But beneath the outward appearance, foreign exchange trading has undergone a seismic shift: more than 90 percent of cash transactions and a growing proportion of derivatives trades in the global $5 trillion a day FX market are done electronically.

So-called smart algos, or fully automated algorithmic trading programs that react to market movements with no human involvement, were virtually non-existent in 2007. Now, almost a third of foreign exchange trades are driven solely by algorithms, according to research firm Aite Group.

“Most of these algorithms haven’t really been tested in a rising interest rate scenario so the next few months will be crucial,” said a portfolio manager at a hedge fund in London.

To be sure, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate rise in a decade in 2015 provided a dry run for this week’s UK decision – but the two economies are in very different positions and the knock-on effects on the wider financial markets of a Bank of England move are hard to predict.

 

ROOKIES AND ROBOTS

Much has changed since the Bank of England raised rates by 0.25 percent on July 5, 2007 to 5.75 percent. The first iPhone had yet to reach British shores, the country’s TVs ran on analogue signals and Northern Rock bank was alive and well.

Where once lightning decision-making and a calm head in a crisis were at a premium, the bulk of trading today is done by machines and the job of a foreign exchange sales trader is often little more than minding software and fielding client queries.

Itay Tuchman, head of global FX trading at Citi and a 20-year market veteran, said while the bank employs roughly the same number of people in currency trading as over the last few years, fewer are dedicated to business over the phone.

“We have an extensive electronic trading business, powered by our algorithmic market making platform, which is staffed by many people that have maths and science PhDs from various backgrounds,” said Tuchman, who heads trading for Citi’s global developed and emerging currency businesses.

London is the epicenter of those changes with the average daily turnover of foreign exchange trades executed directly over the phone down by a fifth to $566 billion in just three years to 2016, according to the Bank of England.

At Dutch bank ING’s London trading room, Obbe Kok, head of UK financial markets, said the floor now has about 165 people but the bank wants to make it 210 by the end of the year – searching mainly for traders attuned to technological innovations and keen on artificial intelligence.

The proportion of people employed in trading with degrees in mathematics and statistics has increased by a 58 percent over the last 10 years, Emolument, a salary benchmarking site, said.

“What banks have started to do is trade experience for technological skill and with electronic platforms growing, the average age on the floor is a bit younger,” said Adrian Ezra, CEO of financial services recruitment agency Execuzen.

 

TAPER TANTRUM

The increasing use of technology means traders can gauge the depth of market liquidity at the click of a button or quickly price an option based on volatility – a major change from a few years ago when they had to scour the market discreetly for fear of disclosing their interest to rivals.

Ala’A Saeed, global head of institutional electronic sales and one of the brains behind Citi’s trading platform FX Velocity, said its electronic programs process thousands of trades per minute.

Most of the currency trading models used by banks incorporate variables such as trading ranges, valuation metrics including trade-weighted indexes and trends in demand based on internal client orders to get a sense of which way markets are moving – and the potential impact of a new trade.

Nowadays, the models also incorporate sentiment analysis around news headlines and economic data surprises.

These electronic trading platforms also have years of financial data plugged into them with various kinds of scenario analyses, but one thing they have sometimes appeared unprepared for is a sudden change in policy direction.

Witness the market mayhem exacerbated by trend-following algorithms when Switzerland’s central bank scrapped its currency peg in 2015, or the taper tantrum in 2013 when the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would stop buying bonds.

Or Britain’s vote last year to leave the European Union.

Indeed, the biggest risk for financial markets cited by money managers in a Bank of America Merrill Lynch poll in October was a policy misstep from a major central bank.

 

EASY CREDIT, LOW VOLATILITY

One concern is that the rise in automation has coincided with a prolonged decline in market volatility as central banks from the United States to Japan have kept interest rates close to zero and spent trillions of dollars dragging long-term borrowing costs lower to try to reboot depressed economies.

While central banks have been careful to get their messages across as they end the years of stimulus, there are concerns about whether quantitative trading models can capture all the qualitative policy shifts.

For example, a growing number of investors expect the Bank of England to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.5 percent on Nov. 2, and then leave it at that for the foreseeable future.

But futures markets are expecting another rate rise within six to nine months, injecting a new level of risk around interest rate moves and potentially boosting volatility.

Neale Jackson, a portfolio manager at 36 South Capital Advisors, a $750 million volatility hedge fund in London, said young traders have never seen an environment other than central banks supporting markets, and that has fueled risk-taking underpinned by the belief that “big brother has got our backs”.

“The problem these days is that there’s a whole generation of traders who have never seen interest rates, let alone interest rates hikes,” said Kevin Rodgers, a veteran FX trader and the author of “Why Aren’t They Shouting?”, a book about the computer revolution within financial markets.

 

(Additional reporting by Maiya Keidan and Simon Jessop; writing by Saikat Chatterjee; editing by Mike Dolan and David Clarke)

 

U.S. yield curve flattens, world stocks dip; focus on possible December hike

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., September 8, 2017.

By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. Treasury yield curve flattened to a two-and-a half month low and key world stock markets fell on Thursday, as investors assessed indications from the U.S. Federal Reserve that it may raise interest rates a third time this year.

The Fed, as expected, also laid out plans to begin the unwinding of a decade of aggressive monetary stimulus, but took a more hawkish than expected stance at this week’s meeting.

“The meeting was definitely more hawkish than what the market was anticipating,” said Mary Ann Hurley, vice president in fixed income trading at D.A. Davidson in Seattle.

“We were definitely not pricing in another rate hike for this year,” Hurley said.

MSCI’s broad index of global stock markets was down 0.3 percent at 486.72.

The U.S. dollar earlier rose to a two-month high against the yen, while an index that measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of currencies dipped.

A Reuters poll late Wednesday of primary dealers, the banks authorized to transact directly with the Fed, showed that the Fed will resume rate hikes in December and raise borrowing costs three more times in 2018.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary spigots open at full.

The Treasury yield curve between five-year notes and 30-year bonds flattened to 92 basis points on Thursday, the lowest level since July 6. Intermediate-dated debt is more sensitive than longer-dated bonds to interest rate increases.

U.S. stocks pulled back from their all-time highs, though bank stocks cheered the prospect of higher interest rates which should help their profits. The S&P bank index was up 0.4 percent, adding to Wednesday’s gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 17.83 points, or 0.08 percent, to 22,394.76, the S&;P 500 lost 3.67 points, or 0.15 percent, to 2,504.57 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 23.08 points, or 0.36 percent, to 6,432.96.

Emerging markets shares were lower, with an index of emerging markets down 0.3 percent.

S&P Global became the second major rating agency this year to cut China’s credit score, citing worries about the country’s rising debt levels and the risks that posed for financial stability in the world’s second largest economy.FED,

China’s markets were already closed by the time it came but it kept the pressure on emerging markets stocks.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.69 percent lower.

Since the start of 2014, Reuters analysis shows that the big three rating agencies – S&P Global, Moody’s and Fitch – have racked up more than 155 emerging market downgrades between them, which averages out a roughly one a week.

The Japanese yen weakened 0.11 percent versus the greenback at 112.34 per dollar. The dollar index fell 0.29 percent.

Gold fell to its lowest in almost four weeks as investors continued to assess the Fed statement. Spot gold dropped 0.7 percent to $1,291.91 an ounce.

Oil prices were down slightly before a meeting of oil producers that could extend production limits.

U.S. crude fell 0.22 percent to $50.58 per barrel and Brent was last at $55.91, down 0.04 percent on the day.

 

(Additional reporting by Karen Brettell in New York, Marc Jones in London and Hideyuki Sano in Tokyo; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

 

U.S. short-term bond yields, dollar gain on Fed rate hike

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) as a television screen displays coverage of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen shortly after the announcement that the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike interest rates, in New York, U.S.,

By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Yields on shorter-dated Treasuries hit their highest in more than five years on Wednesday while the dollar rallied after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected and signaled a faster pace of hikes in 2017.

U.S. stocks fell in choppy action, but were off their lows, following the statement from the Fed, which raised the target federal funds rate 25 basis points to between 0.50 percent and 0.75 percent.

Central bank policymakers also shifted their outlook to one of slightly faster growth, with President-elect Donald Trump planning a simultaneous round of tax cuts and increased spending on infrastructure.

“It was largely as expected, but it’s pretty clear the market is taking it as a bit more aggressive or hawkish than it had thought,” said Ed Keon, portfolio manager and managing director at QMA, the multi-asset manager wholly-owned by Prudential Financial in Newark.

Yields on two-year Treasury notes rose to their highest since August 2009, while three-year yields hit their highest since May 2010 and five-year yields rose to their highest since May 2011.

U.S. two-year notes fell 4/32 in price to yield 1.247 percent.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last up 1 percent at 102.11. The index had been trading lower while bond yields were also mostly lower before the Fed statement.

In the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 41.96 points, or 0.21 percent, to 19,869.25, the S&P 500 lost 7.7 points, or 0.33895 percent, to 2,264.02 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.33 points, or 0.01 percent, to 5,463.49.

MSCI’s all-country world stock index was down 1.1 percent, adding to earlier losses. The pan-European STOXX 600 share index ended down 0.5 percent.

Gold turned lower and tapped the lowest in more than 10 months following the Fed statement, while oil prices fell as the dollar gained.

Spot gold was down 0.3 percent at $1,154.62 an ounce.

Brent crude futures settled at $53.90 per barrel, down $1.82, or 3.27 percent. U.S. crude ended the session down $1.94, or 3.66 percent at $51.04 per barrel.

(Editing by Robin Pomeroy and Nick Zieminski)

Oil surges to one-and-a-half-year high, Fed rate increase looms

A gas station attendant pumps fuel into a customer's car at PetroChina's petrol station in Beijing, China,

By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – Oil prices surged to their highest since mid-2015 and U.S. Treasury yields hit a more than two-year peak on Monday after the world’s top crude producers agreed to the first joint output cut since 2001.

Coming at the start of a week when the United States is expected to raise interest rates for the only the second time since the global financial crisis, the weekend agreement between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and key non-OPEC states set the markets alive.

Brent oil futures soared 5 percent to top $57 a barrel for the first time since July 2015 and U.S. crude leapt above $54 a barrel to send global inflation gauges spiking as well.

There was particular surprise as Saudi Arabia, the world’s number one producer, said it may cut its output even more than it had first suggested at an OPEC meeting just over a week ago.

“The original OPEC deal pointed to a fairly lumpy 3 percent cut (in production), so this suggests there is a bit more upside for oil prices,” said Neil Williams, chief economist at fund manager Hermes.

On the rise in bond yields, which tend to set global borrowing costs, he added: “The Fed hike is mostly baked in so when we do get it, it will be more about the statement.”

European oil companies jumped more than 2 percent on the oil surge and helped the pan-regional STOXX 50 index add 0.1 percent, having just had its best week in exactly five years.

Bond markets in contrast were under heavy pressure. Euro zone government bond yields were sharply higher with German Bunds up 5 basis points at 0.40 percent as U.S. yields topped 2.5 percent for the first time since October 2014.

“We have seen OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreeing, which is boosting reflation expectations around the world,” said Chris Weston, an institutional dealer with IG Markets.

In another sign of the reflation trade, breakeven rates –the gap between yields of five-year U.S. debt and a matching tenor in inflation-protected securities — were at two-month highs.

Wall Street futures, meanwhile, pointed to the main U.S. indexes barely budging when they resume, having enjoyed an uninterrupted gain of nearly 4 percent over the past six sessions.

FED UP

Focus was also on the currency markets as the dollar rose to its highest since February against the Japanese yen, before what is almost certain to be the first rate hike of the year from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

Japan’s yen also tends to suffer when oil prices rise, since the country is a major importer.

The Norwegian crown, Canadian dollar and Russia rouble were the big gainers from the oil deal. The rouble rose almost 2 percent against both the dollar and euro as Russia shares, which have rocketed almost 90 percent since January, hit the latest in a string of record highs.

Overnight in Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.5 percent after posting its biggest weekly rise in nearly three months last week.

China stocks suffered their biggest fall in six months as blue chips were knocked by fresh regulatory curbs to rein in insurers’ aggressive stock investments and rising bond yields prompted profit-taking in equities.

The blue-chip CSI300 index fell 2.4 percent, to 3,409.18 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 2.5 percent to 3,152.97 points.

China’s insurance regulator, which recently warned it would curb “barbaric” acquisitions by insurers, said late on Friday it had suspended the insurance arm of China’s Evergrande Group from conducting stock market investment.

Concerns were also rumbling about U.S.-Sino relations after Donald Trump re-ignited controversy over Taiwan.

“I fully understand the ‘one China’ policy, but I don’t know why we have to be bound by a ‘one China’ policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News.

Emerging markets are already bracing for a difficult run if U.S. rate hikes push up the dollar and global bond yields.

Turkey’s lira has borne the brunt of much of the pressure in recent weeks, and it took another 1 percent hit alongside a sharp fall in Turkish bonds after data showed the country’s economy suffering its first contraction since 2009.

Gold, meanwhile, which had a bumper first half of 2016, hit its lowest level since early February at $1,152 an ounce.

(Additional reporting by Saikat Chatterjee in Hong Kong, editing by Larry King)

Feds can be ‘gentle’ in hiking rates, New York FED President says

William Dudley, President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, speaks at Brooklyn College in the Brooklyn borough of New York,

By Jonathan Spicer

ALBANY, N.Y. (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve can be “gentle” in removing monetary stimulus since U.S. inflation remains low and the economic expansion could last five or more years, one of the most influential Fed policymakers said on Wednesday.

“We’re at a point where the economic expansion has plenty of room to run,” said New York Fed President William Dudley, echoing Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s message last month after the central bank decided to leave interest rates unchanged at near a record low of 0.25-0.5 percent.

“Inflation is a little below our target, rather than above our target, so I think we can be quite gentle as we go in terms of gradually removing monetary policy accommodation,” said Dudley, a close ally of Yellen and a permanent voter on policy.

The U.S. central bank lifted rates in December for the first time in nearly a decade and has stood pat since, as market volatility and overseas events were seen to threaten the U.S. economy, which slowed in the first half of the year. Still, most Fed officials still expect to raise rates again before year end.

“I think this economic expansion can last a good while longer,” Dudley told a business council gathering, adding one reason the Fed has been patient in mulling a rate hike this year is that “slack,” or underutilized workers, remain in the U.S. labor market.

The Fed, he said, is aiming for a best-case scenario in which the economy grows at a “moderate rate over the next five to 10 years” while unemployment remains around 5 percent or a bit lower “and just have a very long-lived economic expansion.”

(Reporting by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Interest Rates Unlikely to Raise Yet

Federal Reserve building in Washington

By Jason Lange and Lindsay Dunsmuir

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve appears unlikely to raise interest rates before June amid widespread concern at the U.S. central bank over its limited ability to counter the blow of a global economic slowdown, minutes from the Fed’s March 15-16 policy meeting suggest.

The minutes released on Wednesday showed policymakers debated whether they might hike rates in April but “a number” of them argued headwinds to growth would probably persist, with many arguing they should be cautious about raising rates.

“Participants generally saw global economic and financial developments as continuing to pose risks,” according to the minutes.

Policymakers had signaled at the close of the March meeting that they expected to raise rates twice in 2016 but the timing of the hikes still appears up in the air.

According to the minutes, many Fed members said they were concerned that the central bank had limited firepower to respond to shocks from abroad because interest rates are already so close to zero.

“Many participants indicated that the heightened global risks and the asymmetric ability of monetary policy to respond to them warranted caution,” the minutes stated.

Investors have held doubts the Fed would raise rates at all this year and the minutes did little to shift bets on the path of policy.

Prices for fed futures contracts suggested investors still saw the chance of a rate hike in December as just better than even, and they saw virtually no chance of an increase at the April 26-27 policy meeting, according to the CME group.

“Resistance to near-term action is still quite entrenched,” said Ian Shepherdson, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

According to the minutes, several of the central bankers said elevated risks faced by the U.S. economy meant that raising rates in April “would signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate.”

A small minority indicated a rate hike might be warranted when the Fed meets at the end of April. After that meeting, policymakers next convene June 14-15.

Policymakers had signaled in December that four rate increases were likely in 2016, and the minutes of the March meeting highlighted the consensus within the Fed around a cautious outlook for the economy.

PROCEEDING WITH CARE

Fed chief Janet Yellen said on March 29 the U.S. central bank should “proceed cautiously” in raising rates, a view Fed Governor Lael Brainard pushed late last year which has been recently embraced by policymakers including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who had previously warned the Fed might hike too slowly.

Bullard said on Wednesday that economic data has been mixed since the March meeting, which could make it difficult for the Fed to raise rates this month.

The Fed left its target interest rate for overnight lending between banks at between 0.25 percent and 0.5 percent in March and in January after December’s hike which ended seven years of near-zero rates.

Global financial markets have been volatile since August amid concerns a slowing Chinese economy could drag heavily on global growth. Expectations the Fed would outpace other central banks in raising rates also tightened financial conditions by leading the dollar to strengthen in 2014 and 2015, though the consensus for caution has helped stabilize the U.S. currency.

At the same time, an inflation index closely followed by the Fed has begun to rebound, although policymakers were divided in March over whether the increase would prove lasting.

“Some participants saw the increase as consistent with a firming trend in inflation. Some others, however, expressed the view that the increase was unlikely to be sustained,” according to the minutes.

(Reporting by Jason Lange and Lindsay Dunsmuir in Washington; Editing by Andrea Ricci)