Important Takeaways:
- A Trump administration team led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio sat down for four hours with senior representatives of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in the first such meeting since Russia deepened an invasion of Ukraine that launched the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II.
- Neither Ukraine nor any European actor was invited to the talks
- “This is the start of a long process,” Rubio told reporters after the meeting.
- The two sides agreed on a “consultation mechanism to address irritants to our bilateral relationship,” the State Department said.
- They also agreed to appoint “high-level teams to begin working on a path to ending the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible in a way that is enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all sides.”
- President Trump, for whom foreign policy is largely transactional, has said he “just wants the killing to stop” at any cost.
- Tuesday’s meeting was a follow-up to Trump’s telephone conversation with Putin last week. Trump essentially ceded to Putin’s main demands: Ukraine will have to give up territory seized illegally by Russia, and must give up its goal of joining NATO.
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Important Takeaways:
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he will only agree to meet in person with Russian leader Vladimir Putin after a common plan is negotiated with U.S. President Trump.
- Zelenskyy also said he believes Trump is the key to ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and said the U.S president gave him his telephone number before Friday’s opening of the Munich Security Conference.
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Important Takeaways:
- Vladimir Putin appeared on Russian television to appeal to Donald Trump not to start World War III and congratulated him on his win, hours before Donald Trump’s Inaugural address as the 47th President of the United States.
- “We hear [Trump’s] statements on the need to prevent World War III. We undoubtedly welcome such a disposition and congratulate the elected US president,” Putin said in a televised session of Russia’s Security Council.
- He emphasized the potential of rebuilding relations with the US following Trump and his team talking about re-establishing communication as Moscow continues to wage a war in Ukraine.
- Putin said that he has heard Trump and his team’s “statements on their wish to restore direct contacts with Russia, which the outgoing [Biden] administration had cut off through no fault of our own.”
- He said that Moscow “never turned down this dialogue” and highlighted that US-Russia relations should be based on “equality and mutual respect.”
- Putin’s comments show a sharp change in the Kremlin’s stance back in November when they refused to congratulate Trump on his victory, stating the US being “unfriendly” to Russia as the reason.
- On his presidential campaign trail, Trump vowed to end the war in Ukraine.
- Recently, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, too, emphasized Russia’s interest in conversing with the US about the war in Ukraine.
- “No special conditions are needed for this. What is required is the mutual intent and political will to have a dialogue,” Peskov said.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held his annual press conference in Moscow, and although he had criticism toward the UDS on a range of subjects, he did bring warm words of praise towards new President Trump.
- He especially commended Trump’s analysis pointing at NATO’s plan to include Ukraine as one of the root causes of the conflict.
- Lavrov reiterated that peace talks have to include ‘broader arrangements for security in Europe’.
- Associated Press reported:
- “Trump said Russia had it ‘written in stone’ that Ukraine’s membership in NATO should never be allowed, but the Biden administration had sought to expand the military alliance to Russia’s doorstep. Trump added that, ‘I could understand their feelings about that’.”
- Trump’s comments lift the seriousness of discussion, moving away from the tired old trope of denouncing Russia’s action as ‘an unprovoked act of aggression’.
- “’NATO did exactly what it had promised not to do, and Trump said that’, Lavrov said. ‘It marked the first such candid acknowledgement not only from a U.S. but any Western leader that NATO had lied when they signed numerous documents. They were used as a cover while NATO has expanded to our borders in violation of the agreements’.”
- “Lavrov also praised comments by Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Mike Waltz, who said Sunday it’s unrealistic to expect that Ukraine could drive Russian forces ‘from every inch of Ukrainian soil’.
- ‘The very fact that people have increasingly started to mention the realities on the ground deserves welcome’, Lavrov said during his annual news conference in Moscow.”
- “’Threats on the western flank, on our western borders, must be eliminated as one of the main reasons (of the conflict)’, he said. ‘They can probably be eliminated only in the context of some broader agreements’.”
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Important Takeaways:
- NATO scrambled its warplanes early today in response to a fierce Russian bombardment of Ukraine close to its border with Poland.
- The Russian strikes – hitting vital energy facilities in the coldest weeks of winter – were led by Vladimir Putin’s Tu-22 and Tu-95 strategic bombers.
- The onslaught was seen as instant revenge for Tuesday’s Ukrainian aerial strikes on Russia, the heaviest of the almost three-year war.
- In particular, Putin was rattled by Ukraine’s use of British Storm Shadow and American ATACMS missiles which hit key defense facilities including a chemical plant in Bryansk region.
- NATO forces went on full alert in Poland with warplanes scrambled, the country’s operational command headquarters said.
- ‘Duty fighter pairs have been scrambled, and the ground-based air defense and radar reconnaissance systems have reached the highest state of readiness,’ said a statement.
- ‘The steps taken are aimed at ensuring security in the areas bordering the threatened areas.’
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Important Takeaways:
- The US has been given a chilling ‘WW3 by Christmas’ warning by pro-Putin spokesperson Sergey Markov.
- Western allies, also including Britain and France, have taken a “big jump” towards a nuclear conflict by giving Ukraine permission to fire Western long-range missiles into Kremlin territory, Markov claims.
- A regular Putin “mouthpiece”, Markov warned that the shock move by President Joe Biden could mean that Britons could be facing a Christmas in shelters.
- The threat, in an interview on the BBC Radio 4’s The World At One, was also echoed by President-Elect Donald Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., who suggested that those behind the move to approve Ukraine’s use of the missiles wanted to “make sure they got World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives”.
- President Biden’s move, however, has been welcomed by Ukraine, by senior UK defense sources and by many European leaders.
- The move will allow Ukraine to fire US ATACM missiles, UK Storm Shadow missiles and French Scalp missiles into Kremlin territory.
- Speaking to BBC Radio 4, he said: “My reaction [to the White House’s decision] was awful, I couldn’t sleep well because I am just afraid nuclear war is coming.
- “This decision of United States, Great Britain and France is not a step towards nuclear war it is a big jump to nuclear war, nuclear catastrophe.
- “It is a very dangerous decision. The point is these rocket-missiles cannot be fired by the Ukrainian army, technically.
- “Because, these rocket-missiles need to have very good map of the Russian territory and only the US has this map, even Great Britain and France does not have this map.”
- “So, we regard this as the start of a direct war by Britain, America and France against Russia, another nuclear power.
- “American rocket missiles against our territory. This is a clear escalation of the war.”
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Important Takeaways:
- European nations are gearing up for an all-out war on the continent as Ukraine launched US-made missiles into Russia for the first time and Vladimir Putin officially lowered the threshold for Moscow to consider a nuclear strike.
- Germany’s foreign minister yesterday vowed her country ‘will not be intimidated’ by Putin…
- According to a 1,000-page document entitled ‘Operationsplan Deutschland’, Germany would reportedly host hundreds of thousands of troops from NATO countries and serve as a logistics hub for sending huge quantities of military equipment, food and medicine toward the front.
- A report by Der Spiegel in the summer said as many as 800,000 soldiers from the security bloc could be hosted by Germany as they transit to posts further East.
- The German army is also instructing companies and civilians on how to protect key infrastructure and mobilize for national defense, envisaging a situation in which Russia expands drone flights, spying operations and sabotage attacks across Europe.
- Businesses have been advised to create crisis plans detailing employee responsibilities during emergencies and will be instructed to stockpile diesel generators or install wind turbines to ensure energy independence.
- Finland reminded its citizens of their ‘national defense obligation’ and recently launched a new information website, while Sweden laid out a detailed guide on how to seek shelter and what to do in case of a nuclear attack.
- Putin yesterday signed off on an updated version of the Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine that broadens the scope for Moscow to turn to its fearsome atomic arsenal on the same day that US-made missiles rained down on Russian soil.
- The new document, first announced in September, allows Putin’s strategic forces to deploy their devastating weapons if Russia or Belarus is threatened by a non-nuclear nation supported by a nuclear power.
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Important Takeaways:
- Ukraine has carried out its first strike on Russian territory with US-supplied long-range missiles just days after the Biden administration gave Kyiv the green light despite fears it could escalate the conflict beyond control.
- A fiery explosion at an ammunition depot in Karachev around 75 miles from the Ukrainian border in Russia’s Bryansk region lit up the night sky early this morning on what is the 1,000th day of war in Ukraine.
- Kyiv is yet to officially confirm the ATACMS strike, but Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed they shot down five missiles. A sixth missile was damaged but ultimately landed on the military facility, it said.
- The reports emerged within minutes of the Kremlin threatening a ‘nuclear response’ should Ukraine hit targets on Russian soil with Western-supplied long-range munitions.
- ‘The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against it with the use of conventional weapons,’ Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Russia this morning.
- His statement followed Vladimir Putin’s approval of an updated nuclear doctrine that allows his strategic forces to deploy nuclear weapons if Russian or Belarusian territory is threatened by a non-nuclear nation supported by a nuclear power.
- Threats that could make Russia’s leadership consider a nuclear strike include an attack with conventional missiles, drones or other aircraft, according to the updated document.
- A Ukrainian strike on Russian territory with US-supplied missiles meets these criteria, raising fears that Moscow may now consider a dramatic escalation in the conflict.
- … ‘if anyone has the urge to launch ATACMS, SCALP, Storm Shadow missiles… there will be essentially nothing left of America trying to pull us into escalation.
- ‘There will be no Biden and no Trump. The American people and we know this perfectly well.’
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Important Takeaways:
- North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 soldiers to assist Russia in its war against Ukraine, according to assessments from G20 nations reported by Digi24.
- The move would deepen the alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, reflecting growing cooperation between the two nations.
- Sources familiar with these evaluations stated that such a deployment is not imminent. If it happens, the soldiers would likely be sent in phases, with troops rotating over time rather than being deployed all at once.
- This approach would help sustain combat effectiveness and minimize losses.
- The figure of 100,000 soldiers indicates that Putin may be preparing for a prolonged conflict. This potential reinforcement would complement military supplies already provided by North Korea, including artillery shells and ammunition.
- The growing military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang have raised concerns among international observers. Experts warn that deeper cooperation could further destabilize the region and extend the war in Ukraine.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier said that it was up to representatives of supplier countries to enter flight data into long-range Western missiles. Therefore, Moscow will see the Pentagon responsible for ATACMS strikes, the Russian President said.
- Indeed, the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot independently prepare strikes with the use of long-range Western missiles. Ukrainian military specialists would need to obtain data from Western reconnaissance satellites first. Ultimately, permission to use long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia would indicate NATO’s direct participation in the hostilities.
- This suggests that Ukraine may launch ATACMS missiles from positions located deep in Kiev-controlled territories. The US missiles will thus be able to hit Kursk, Voronezh, and parts of the Oryol region of Russia.
- Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, which Kyiv also received from the West, have a range of up to 300 kilometers. These missiles, in their current configuration, cannot reach Moscow or Tula. There are Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles with a range of up to 560 kilometers, but the West did not transfer modifications of those missiles to Kyiv.
- French publication Le Figaro wrote that Paris and London allowed Kyiv to use Anglo-French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG air-to-surface cruise missiles to strike Russia. At the same time, a source of RBC-Ukraine reported in August that London could give such permission only with the consent of France, Germany and the United States, since Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles use technologies from these countries.
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