Important Takeaways:
- The US has been given a chilling ‘WW3 by Christmas’ warning by pro-Putin spokesperson Sergey Markov.
- Western allies, also including Britain and France, have taken a “big jump” towards a nuclear conflict by giving Ukraine permission to fire Western long-range missiles into Kremlin territory, Markov claims.
- A regular Putin “mouthpiece”, Markov warned that the shock move by President Joe Biden could mean that Britons could be facing a Christmas in shelters.
- The threat, in an interview on the BBC Radio 4’s The World At One, was also echoed by President-Elect Donald Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., who suggested that those behind the move to approve Ukraine’s use of the missiles wanted to “make sure they got World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives”.
- President Biden’s move, however, has been welcomed by Ukraine, by senior UK defense sources and by many European leaders.
- The move will allow Ukraine to fire US ATACM missiles, UK Storm Shadow missiles and French Scalp missiles into Kremlin territory.
- Speaking to BBC Radio 4, he said: “My reaction [to the White House’s decision] was awful, I couldn’t sleep well because I am just afraid nuclear war is coming.
- “This decision of United States, Great Britain and France is not a step towards nuclear war it is a big jump to nuclear war, nuclear catastrophe.
- “It is a very dangerous decision. The point is these rocket-missiles cannot be fired by the Ukrainian army, technically.
- “Because, these rocket-missiles need to have very good map of the Russian territory and only the US has this map, even Great Britain and France does not have this map.”
- “So, we regard this as the start of a direct war by Britain, America and France against Russia, another nuclear power.
- “American rocket missiles against our territory. This is a clear escalation of the war.”
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Important Takeaways:
- European nations are gearing up for an all-out war on the continent as Ukraine launched US-made missiles into Russia for the first time and Vladimir Putin officially lowered the threshold for Moscow to consider a nuclear strike.
- Germany’s foreign minister yesterday vowed her country ‘will not be intimidated’ by Putin…
- According to a 1,000-page document entitled ‘Operationsplan Deutschland’, Germany would reportedly host hundreds of thousands of troops from NATO countries and serve as a logistics hub for sending huge quantities of military equipment, food and medicine toward the front.
- A report by Der Spiegel in the summer said as many as 800,000 soldiers from the security bloc could be hosted by Germany as they transit to posts further East.
- The German army is also instructing companies and civilians on how to protect key infrastructure and mobilize for national defense, envisaging a situation in which Russia expands drone flights, spying operations and sabotage attacks across Europe.
- Businesses have been advised to create crisis plans detailing employee responsibilities during emergencies and will be instructed to stockpile diesel generators or install wind turbines to ensure energy independence.
- Finland reminded its citizens of their ‘national defense obligation’ and recently launched a new information website, while Sweden laid out a detailed guide on how to seek shelter and what to do in case of a nuclear attack.
- Putin yesterday signed off on an updated version of the Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine that broadens the scope for Moscow to turn to its fearsome atomic arsenal on the same day that US-made missiles rained down on Russian soil.
- The new document, first announced in September, allows Putin’s strategic forces to deploy their devastating weapons if Russia or Belarus is threatened by a non-nuclear nation supported by a nuclear power.
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Important Takeaways:
- Ukraine has carried out its first strike on Russian territory with US-supplied long-range missiles just days after the Biden administration gave Kyiv the green light despite fears it could escalate the conflict beyond control.
- A fiery explosion at an ammunition depot in Karachev around 75 miles from the Ukrainian border in Russia’s Bryansk region lit up the night sky early this morning on what is the 1,000th day of war in Ukraine.
- Kyiv is yet to officially confirm the ATACMS strike, but Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed they shot down five missiles. A sixth missile was damaged but ultimately landed on the military facility, it said.
- The reports emerged within minutes of the Kremlin threatening a ‘nuclear response’ should Ukraine hit targets on Russian soil with Western-supplied long-range munitions.
- ‘The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against it with the use of conventional weapons,’ Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Russia this morning.
- His statement followed Vladimir Putin’s approval of an updated nuclear doctrine that allows his strategic forces to deploy nuclear weapons if Russian or Belarusian territory is threatened by a non-nuclear nation supported by a nuclear power.
- Threats that could make Russia’s leadership consider a nuclear strike include an attack with conventional missiles, drones or other aircraft, according to the updated document.
- A Ukrainian strike on Russian territory with US-supplied missiles meets these criteria, raising fears that Moscow may now consider a dramatic escalation in the conflict.
- … ‘if anyone has the urge to launch ATACMS, SCALP, Storm Shadow missiles… there will be essentially nothing left of America trying to pull us into escalation.
- ‘There will be no Biden and no Trump. The American people and we know this perfectly well.’
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Important Takeaways:
- North Korea may deploy as many as 100,000 soldiers to assist Russia in its war against Ukraine, according to assessments from G20 nations reported by Digi24.
- The move would deepen the alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, reflecting growing cooperation between the two nations.
- Sources familiar with these evaluations stated that such a deployment is not imminent. If it happens, the soldiers would likely be sent in phases, with troops rotating over time rather than being deployed all at once.
- This approach would help sustain combat effectiveness and minimize losses.
- The figure of 100,000 soldiers indicates that Putin may be preparing for a prolonged conflict. This potential reinforcement would complement military supplies already provided by North Korea, including artillery shells and ammunition.
- The growing military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang have raised concerns among international observers. Experts warn that deeper cooperation could further destabilize the region and extend the war in Ukraine.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin earlier said that it was up to representatives of supplier countries to enter flight data into long-range Western missiles. Therefore, Moscow will see the Pentagon responsible for ATACMS strikes, the Russian President said.
- Indeed, the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot independently prepare strikes with the use of long-range Western missiles. Ukrainian military specialists would need to obtain data from Western reconnaissance satellites first. Ultimately, permission to use long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia would indicate NATO’s direct participation in the hostilities.
- This suggests that Ukraine may launch ATACMS missiles from positions located deep in Kiev-controlled territories. The US missiles will thus be able to hit Kursk, Voronezh, and parts of the Oryol region of Russia.
- Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, which Kyiv also received from the West, have a range of up to 300 kilometers. These missiles, in their current configuration, cannot reach Moscow or Tula. There are Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles with a range of up to 560 kilometers, but the West did not transfer modifications of those missiles to Kyiv.
- French publication Le Figaro wrote that Paris and London allowed Kyiv to use Anglo-French Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG air-to-surface cruise missiles to strike Russia. At the same time, a source of RBC-Ukraine reported in August that London could give such permission only with the consent of France, Germany and the United States, since Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles use technologies from these countries.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday launched a massive exercise of the country’s nuclear forces featuring missile launches in a simulation of a retaliatory strike, as he continued to flex the country’s nuclear muscle amid spiraling tensions with the West over Ukraine.
- Speaking in a video call with military leaders, Putin said that the drills would simulate top officials’ action in using nuclear weapons and include launches of nuclear-capable ballistic and cruise missiles.
- Defense Minister Andrei Belousov reported that the exercise is intended to practice “strategic offensive forces launching a massive nuclear strike in response to a nuclear strike by the enemy.”
- Putin, who has repeatedly brandished the nuclear sword as he seeks to deter the West from ramping up support for Ukraine, emphasized on Tuesday that Russia’s nuclear arsenal remains a “reliable guarantor of the country’s sovereignty and security.”
- Putin noted that Moscow will continue to modernize its nuclear forces, deploying new missiles that have a higher precision, quicker launch times and increased capabilities to overcome missile defenses.
- As part of Tuesday’s drills, the military test-fired a Yars intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk launch pad at the Kura testing range on the Kamchatka Peninsula, the Defense Ministry said. The Novomoskovsk and Knyaz Oleg nuclear submarines test-fired ICBMs from the Barents Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk, while nuclear-capable Tu-95 strategic bombers carried out practice launches of long-range cruise missiles.
- The ministry said that all the missiles reached their designated targets.
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Important Takeaways:
- Reports from Kyiv say 10,000 North Korean troops are undergoing training in Russia’s Far East and could be used to fight in Ukraine.
- The account of North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia is the latest sign of tightening security ties between two prime U.S. adversaries. Last week, unconfirmed reports said a Ukrainian missile strike killed six North Korean officers in the raging war with Russia across Ukraine’s occupied southern and eastern regions.
- A South Korean military official told the Yonhap News Agency that the reports were being “closely monitored.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin met Iran’s president on Friday, at a time when Tehran is supplying weapons for Moscow’s war in Ukraine and concerns are growing over escalating attacks between Israel and Iran and its militant allies.
- “We have many opportunities now, and we must help each other in our relationships. Our principles, our positions in the international arena are similar to yours,” Pezeshkian said at the start of his meeting with Putin.
- Pezeshkian said that Israel’s “savage attacks,” on Lebanon are “beyond description.”
- Both countries were accused this week by Ken McCallum, the head of Britain’s domestic intelligence agency MI5, of carrying out a “staggering” rise in attempts at assassination, sabotage and other crimes on U.K. soil.
- McCallum said his agents and police have tackled 20 “potentially lethal” plots backed by Iran since 2022 and warned that it could expand its targets in the U.K. if conflicts in the Middle East deepen.
- Speaking Friday as the forum opened, Putin said he wants to create a “new world order” of Moscow’s allies to counter the West, according to video provided by the Kremlin`
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has flatly stated that any long-range missile strikes carried out by Ukraine against the territory of Russia will constitute an act of war against the Russian Federation by NATO.
- He warns that if Ukraine is empowered to strike Russia with long-range missiles supplied by NATO, the alliance would be at war with his country:
- Putin notes that Ukrainian drone attacks have already taken place within Russia, most recently in Moscow. However, “When it comes to using high-precision long-range Western-made weapons, it’s a completely different story.”
- “The Ukrainian army is not able to strike with modern long-range precision systems of Western manufacture. It cannot do this. It can only do so using intelligence from satellites, which Ukraine does not have. This is data from [European Union] satellites, or from the United States, in general from NATO,” he said.
- Putin believes only NATO servicemen can enter flight assignments for the missile systems, arguing the real question is whether NATO wants to be directly involved in the war in Ukraine or not.
- Putin’s ominous words come after Biden-Harris Secretary of State Anthony Blinken hinted that Ukraine may get the green light to use long-range missiles against Russia earlier this week.
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Important Takeaways:
- Three weeks ago, Ukraine’s military launched a stunning operation to take the war in Ukraine back onto the territory of the country that launched it. Three weeks later, the Ukrainians still occupy hundreds of miles of territory in Russia’s western Kursk region.
- The incursion had a number of goals: to force Russia to divert its forces from Ukraine to defend its own towns and cities; to seize territory that might later be used for bargaining leverage in peace negotiations; and to send a political message to the Russian people and their leaders that they are not safe from the consequences of the war launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin nearly two-and-a-half years ago.
- But there was also a less obvious objective: Leaders in Kyiv likely hoped to send a message to their friends in the United States and Europe that their approach to the war has been overly cautious — that fears about “escalation,” “red lines,” and Russian nuclear use — a threat that Putin himself has voiced repeatedly — have been overblown.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged this explicitly in a speech on August 19, saying, “We are now witnessing a significant ideological shift, namely, the whole naive, illusory concept of so-called ‘red lines’ refs somewhere near Sudzha” — a town near the border now under the control of Ukrainian forces.
- The Russian government has certainly done everything in its power to add nuclear uncertainty to Western leaders’ calculations. From the very first day of the invasion, Putin has made repeated references to his country’s nuclear arsenal — the largest in the world — and warned countries that get in Russia’s way of “consequences that you have never faced in your history.”
- Over the course of the war, Putin and other Russian officials have made repeated references to “red lines” that should not be crossed if Western governments don’t want to face a catastrophic response. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has been particularly active in threatening foreign powers with “nuclear apocalypse” via his social media accounts.
- It’s not all rhetoric: The Russian government has taken steps such as moving some of its nuclear weapons to Belarus and conducting realistic drills for using tactical nuclear weapons — seemingly in an effort to remind Ukraine’s allies of Russia’s capabilities.
- Pavel Podvig, senior researcher on Russia’s nuclear arsenal at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research in Geneva [thinks] Putin would be unlikely to consider any sort of nuclear use unless the very existence of the Russian state were threatened. “Even the loss of a region like Kursk technically would not qualify,”
- As the Council on Foreign Relations’s Fix put it, Western “red lines” on aid to Ukraine have clearly shifted. The problem is “we don’t know how the red lines are shifting in Putin’s mind.”
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