Important Takeaways:
- The Chinese defense ministry said in a statement that forces from both sides recently patrolled the western and northern Pacific Ocean and that the operation had nothing to do with international and regional situations and didn’t target any third party.
- The exercise aimed to demonstrate the capabilities of the navies in addressing security threats and preserving peace and stability globally and regionally
- NATO’s European and North American members and their partners in the Indo-Pacific increasingly see shared security concerns coming from Russia and its Asian supporters, especially China.
- In response, China accused NATO of seeking security at the expense of others and told the alliance not to bring the same “chaos” to Asia. Its foreign ministry maintained that China has a fair and objective stance on the war in Ukraine.
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Important Takeaways:
- Orban, a longtime Trump supporter, also visited Kyiv, Moscow and Beijing in the past two weeks on a self-styled ‘peace mission’ to end the Russia-Ukraine war which has angered Hungary’s NATO allies.
- Orban’s so-called peace initiative has irked many members of the European Union, whose rotating presidency Hungary took over at the start of this month.
- Hungary’s Viktor Orban has met with former US President Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida where they discussed the “possibilities of peace”, the latest stop in the prime minister’s solo run to secure a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war.
- “It was an honor to visit President [Donald Trump] at Mar-a-Lago today. We discussed ways to make peace. The good news of the day: he’s going to solve it!” Orban said on X.
- On Friday, Germany’s foreign ministry said Orban had already caused damage in the first 12 days of his country’s rotating EU presidency.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who said he was not informed by Orban of his onward trip to Russia, has dismissed the prime minister’s ambition of playing the peacemaker.
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Important Takeaways:
- Biden spoke forcefully and fluently about foreign policy, one of his favorite subjects.
- He gave detailed responses about his work to preserve NATO and his plans for a second term.
- Perhaps Biden’s biggest slip-up in the press conference came early on when he referred to Vice President Kamala Harris as “Vice President Trump,” in saying he picked her because he believed she could beat Trump.
- The press conference ended with Biden being asked directly whether he’d step down for Harris if he saw polling showing she had a better chance of beating Trump. “No, unless they come back and said there’s no way you can win,” Biden responded. Then he added, in a stage whisper, “No poll’s saying that.”
- Overall, his presentation was a reminder that people are focused on him now with an almost clinical eye toward possible slip-ups and mistakes, the kind of pressure that is unlikely to go away for as long as Biden insists he’ll stay in the race.
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Important Takeaways:
- Stoltenberg said nuclear transparency should be the cornerstone of NATO’s nuclear strategy to prepare the alliance for what he described as a more dangerous world.
- A decade ago, when the 65-year-old assumed his role at the top of the bloc, nuclear exercises were conducted in complete secrecy.
- Now he openly praises a number of its 32 allies for contributing to the deterrent, including most recently The Netherlands for investing in dual-capable fighter jets that can host US nuclear weapons.
- “Transparency helps to communicate the direct message that we, of course, are a nuclear alliance,” Mr. Stoltenberg said. “NATO’s aim is, of course, a world without nuclear weapons, but as long as nuclear weapons exist, we will remain a nuclear alliance, because a world where Russia, China and North Korea have nuclear weapons, and NATO does not, is a more dangerous world.”
- He warned that China in particular was investing heavily in modern weaponry including its nuclear arsenal, which he said would grow to 1,000 warheads by as early as 2030.
- Stoltenberg insisted that the US and its European allies were now modernizing their nuclear deterrent in the face of increased threat from Russia.
- The number of operational nuclear weapons is top secret but estimates suggest the UK has about 40 of 225 deployed at any one time. The US has about 1,700 of 3,700.
- France, NATO’s third nuclear power, does not make its atomic arsenal available to the alliance because of a long-held decision to maintain independence over its own deterrence.
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Important Takeaways:
- Ukraine last night claimed it successfully hit a missile system inside Russia using U.S. weapons.
- It said the country’s forces destroyed Russian missile launchers with a strike in the Belgorod region.
- Senior politician Yehor Chernev claimed Ukrainian forces used a High Mobility Rocket Artillery System, or HIMARS, The New York Times reported.
- Meanwhile, Joe Biden has ruled out Ukraine joining NATO in a major policy shift. The development comes after the defense alliance’s members, including the US and Britain, released a communique last year declaring ‘Ukraine’s future is in NATO’.
- While his remarks were met with heavy criticism in Kyiv, analysts believe Mr. Biden’s comments could bring a settlement closer.
- Russia has repeatedly referred to Ukraine’s possible membership of NATO to justify its invasion and occupation of the country.
- It comes as NATO countries are set to collaborate to create a ‘drone wall’ on the security alliance’s eastern flank that aims to provide round-the-clock monitoring of threats across the border from Russia and Belarus.
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Important Takeaways:
- NATO is drawing up plans to send American troops to the frontlines of Europe in the event of an all-out conflict with Russia, it has been revealed.
- New ‘land corridors’ are being carved out to quickly funnel soldiers through central Europe without local bureaucratic impediments, allowing NATO forces to pounce in an instant should Putin’s devastating war in Ukraine move further west.
- The plans are said to include contingencies in case of Russian bombardment, letting troops sweep into the Balkans via corridors in Italy, Greece and Turkey, or towards Russia’s northern border via Scandinavia, officials told The Telegraph.
- Tensions have ratcheted up in recent weeks, with Russian President Vladimir Putin openly acknowledging the ‘possibility’ of ‘a full-scale Third World War’ as he threatens ‘fatal consequences’ for western allies allowing Ukraine use of their weapons on Russian soil.
- But amid warnings from Norway’s top general that Europe only has two to three years to prepare before Russia could realistically attack the bloc, NATO is said to be exploring possible countermeasures.
- NATO leaders agreed last year to prepare 300,000 troops to be kept in a state of high readiness to defend the bloc in case of an attack on a member state – just under half the force Napoleon sent to Russia in his disastrous 1812 campaign.
- Russia meanwhile continues to amass forces. The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) thinktank assessed that the Russian military began 2023 with a ‘highly disorganized force in Ukraine’ of around 360,000 troops, rising to 410,000 by the summer.
- By the beginning of this year, they reported, there were 470,000 troops in occupied territories.
- French President Emmanuel Macron has urged NATO unity against a belligerent Russian aggressor, warning ‘the rules of the game has changed’ in a recent speech in Paris.
- ‘The fact that war has returned to European soil, and that it is being waged by a nuclear-armed power, changes everything,’ he told an audience at the Sorbonne late in April.
- Macron warned that Europe is ‘not armed against the risks we face’ abroad and urged his allies on the continent to avoid overreliance on the US for security.
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Important Takeaways:
- Britain is engaged in a “gray war” with Russia, but neither the authorities nor the public are taking the situation seriously enough, the former head of the famed spy agency MI6, Richard Dearlove, has warned.
- The UK military isn’t getting enough money to be able to counter the “threats” posed by Moscow and Beijing, Richard Dearlove, who led the British Secret Intelligence Service between 1999 and 2004, said in an interview with Politico on Friday.
- The statement followed last week’s announcement of the UK’s budget for the next financial year, in which there was no increase in defense spending. It remains at 2% of the country’s GDP.
- “If you stopped anyone in the street here in the UK and asked them whether they thought Britain is at war, they’d look at you as if you were mad. But we are at war — we’re engaged in a gray war with Russia, and I am trying to remind people of that,” the former spy chief said.
- The British authorities have “got to make some tough choices, and I’m afraid the tough choices are in front of us right now. We should be spending at least 2.5%” on defense, he insisted.
- “We urgently need to be building more ships. We need a much bigger navy. And we need more boots on the ground, for God’s sake,” Dearlove stressed.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia warns it is ready for direct conflict if the West wants to fight for Ukraine on the battlefield – as Swedish PM says he is open to hosting nukes ‘in a war situation’
- If the West wants to fight for Ukraine on the battlefield, Russia is prepared for it, the country’s foreign minister declared today.
- ‘It’s their right – if they want it to be on the battlefield, it will be on the battlefield,’ Sergei Lavrov said in comments carried by Russia’s RIA Novosti.
- His statement comes months after French President Emmanuel Macron refused to rule out the possibility that Western troops could one day be sent to Ukraine, and weeks ago said he could send troops if Russian forces break through the front lines.
- Lavrov made the warning as Sweden’s Prime Minister said he would be willing to host Western nuclear weapons should war break out.
- Leaked German documents have also suggested Berlin may be planning to introduce mandatory military service for men and women aged 18.
- The war of words between Moscow and the West dialed up as Russian troops pummeled 30 towns in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region after launching a surprise ground offensive over the border last week.
- RIA also cited him as saying that peace talks on Ukraine due to take place in Switzerland next month without Russia’s participation amounted to an ultimatum to Moscow.
- He compared the situation to ‘a reprimand for a schoolchild’ whose fate was being decided by teachers while he was out of the room.
- ‘You can’t talk to anyone like that, especially to us,’ Lavrov said. ‘The conference… boils down to restating an ultimatum to Russia.’
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Important Takeaways:
- Germany is considering introducing conscription for all 18-year-olds, as it looks to boost its troop numbers in the face of Russian military aggression.
- Both men and women could be called up to boost numbers in the armed forces
- Military planners in Berlin are in the final stages of discussing three options, two of which involve a form of conscription, according to leaked plans reported in the German media.
- Defense Minister Boris Pistorius is set to go public with the official plans by June.
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Important Takeaways:
- Emmanuel Macron has said he would be prepared to send troops to Ukraine if Vladimir Putin’s forces break through the front lines – further raising the risk of NATO forces clashing with Russia’s armies.
- In an interview published today, the French president said the issue of sending troops would ‘legitimately’ arise if Kyiv and President Volodymyr Zelensky made such a request.
- The Economist said Macron gave the interview after delivering a keynote speech last week where he declared that Europe is ‘mortal’ and could ‘die’ partly due to the threat posed by Russian aggression after its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
- It also came as Russia claimed its forces had taken another town in Donetsk, eastern Ukraine, with Moscow’s armies continuing to push against Kyiv’s defenses.
- Russia is rushing to advance against struggling Ukrainian forces ahead of the long-awaited arrival of the bulk of US weapons to the front for Kyiv’s outgunned troops.
- ‘I’m not ruling anything out, because we are facing someone who is not ruling anything out,’ Macron said when asked if he stood by comments earlier this year not excluding the sending of Western troops that sent shockwaves around Europe.
- Such a move would see NATO troops go head-to-head with those in the Russian army, dramatically increasing the risk of an escalation.
- ‘I have a clear strategic objective: Russia cannot win in Ukraine,’ Macron said.
- ‘If Russia wins in Ukraine, there will be no security in Europe,’ he warned.
- ‘Who can pretend that Russia will stop there? What security will there be for the other neighboring countries, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and the others?’
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