Hegseth said NATO membership for Ukraine is not realistic; Europe must be responsible for country’s security

Important Takeaways:

  • US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that the war between Ukraine and Russia “must end,” that Kyiv joining NATO is unrealistic and that the US will no longer prioritize European and Ukrainian security as the Trump administration shifts its attention to securing the US’ own borders and deterring war with China.
  • In remarks before a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Hegseth also said that European troops should be the primary force securing a post-war Ukraine—something US troops will not be involved in, he added.
  • “The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement,” Hegseth said. And he added that any security guarantees offered to Ukraine “must be backed by capable European and non-European troops.”
  • “To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be US troops deployed to Ukraine,” he said.
  • “We’re also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe,” he said
  • Hegseth emphasized that the US “remains committed to the NATO alliance and to the defense partnership with Europe. Full stop. But the United States will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency.”

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Zelensky: Let us into NATO or allows us Nuclear Weapons

Important Takeaways:

  • Ukraine gave up its Cold War-legacy nuclear arsenal in the 1990s “for nothing” and would seek to acquire nuclear bombs again if it wasn’t able to quickly join NATO in the aftermath of the present war or a ceasefire, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday.
  • The Ukrainian president told British broadcaster Piers Morgan in an interview published on Tuesday night that, from his perspective, letting Ukraine into the NATO alliance would be a considerably better deal for its members because it would be so much cheaper. With NATO membership, Russia would not dare invade, he believes, but the level of security guarantees required to keep Moscow polite otherwise would be ruinously expensive.
  • To keep Ukraine secure without NATO would mean Ukraine’s allies funding a million-man army, including troop “contingents” from Western nations as peacekeepers or reinforcements, funding missile systems to keep the skies clear, and Ukraine acquiring its own nuclear deterrent.
  • He said, per the Piers Morgan show’s translation: “If not NATO, we will need to sustain a million [man] army, but the hundreds of thousands that we have will not be enough, they are on the offense and we do not have enough… That is huge money… so that’s why I think NATO is the cheapest option. If not NATO, then we must [build] this huge army with huge money, that means contingents from our partners, and undoubtedly that is a big deterrence missile package against the Ruskis”

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US, NATO not prepared for an EMP: Pentagon analyst

Important Takeaways:

  • NATO’s perennial cycle of eastward expansion has been disastrous for European security, and “spells the beginning of the end of NATO as we know it,” Michael Maloof, senior former Pentagon analyst previously underscored.
  • A launch of an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) weapon at a height of about 200 miles from a satellite to explode a nuclear device up in orbit would knock out all the electronics of NATO countries, including the US, Michael Maloof, former Pentagon senior security policy analyst, told Sputnik.
    • “Look, in the United States alone on the East Coast, 70% of the US population relies on the Eastern grid. Around 90% of all US bases rely on energy from the local community grids. If those are knocked out, there’s no communication. And the United States is not geared up for that,” he added
  • Looking ahead, he predicted that fissures could tear the alliance apart.
    • “NATO’s going to probably begin to fracture and splinter into more regional defense alliances in the years to come,” Maloof speculated, suggesting that it might begin with the Scandinavian countries and then spread to the Eastern European countries.

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Head of German military task force raises concern of Russia rearming to target NATO on eve of Donald Trump being sworn in to office

Important Takeaways:

  • Russia is rearming faster than first thought for a potential attack on Nato, Germany’s military pointman on Ukraine has warned.
  • On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president, Maj Gen Christian Freuding said that Russia had already replaced missiles and tanks lost in its invasion of Ukraine.
  • “The Russian armed forces are not just able to compensate for their enormous personnel and material losses… they are successfully rearming,” he told Die Welt newspaper.
  • Vladimir Putin has reorientated the Russian economy to feed his war machine and has also bought extra supplies from Iran and North Korea which Maj Gen Freuding, who is head of the German military’s task force, said was helping Russia replenish its tanks, missiles and drones.
  • He warned that although it was not clear that Putin had plans to attack Nato, he was “clearly creating the conditions for it”.
  • “Production is growing, the supplies in the depots are growing,” he said.
  • Germany is locked in a debate ahead of a national election next month on whether to back a £2.5 billion aid package for Ukraine.
  • In Ukraine, Russian forces have surrounded the fortress town of Pokrovsk and are on the brink of capturing one of the last Ukraine-held villages in south Donetsk.

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Just days before Trump administration takes over Russian Foreign Minister says Putin is open to negotiations

Sergey Lavrov

Important Takeaways:

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held his annual press conference in Moscow, and although he had criticism toward the UDS on a range of subjects, he did bring warm words of praise towards new President Trump.
  • He especially commended Trump’s analysis pointing at NATO’s plan to include Ukraine as one of the root causes of the conflict.
  • Lavrov reiterated that peace talks have to include ‘broader arrangements for security in Europe’.
  • Associated Press reported:
    • “Trump said Russia had it ‘written in stone’ that Ukraine’s membership in NATO should never be allowed, but the Biden administration had sought to expand the military alliance to Russia’s doorstep. Trump added that, ‘I could understand their feelings about that’.”
  • Trump’s comments lift the seriousness of discussion, moving away from the tired old trope of denouncing Russia’s action as ‘an unprovoked act of aggression’.
    • “’NATO did exactly what it had promised not to do, and Trump said that’, Lavrov said. ‘It marked the first such candid acknowledgement not only from a U.S. but any Western leader that NATO had lied when they signed numerous documents. They were used as a cover while NATO has expanded to our borders in violation of the agreements’.”
    • “Lavrov also praised comments by Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Mike Waltz, who said Sunday it’s unrealistic to expect that Ukraine could drive Russian forces ‘from every inch of Ukrainian soil’.
    • ‘The very fact that people have increasingly started to mention the realities on the ground deserves welcome’, Lavrov said during his annual news conference in Moscow.”
    • “’Threats on the western flank, on our western borders, must be eliminated as one of the main reasons (of the conflict)’, he said. ‘They can probably be eliminated only in the context of some broader agreements’.”

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Russian bombers target Ukraine’s energy facilities; NATO scrambles jets in response

Kyiv bombardment

Important Takeaways:

  • NATO scrambled its warplanes early today in response to a fierce Russian bombardment of Ukraine close to its border with Poland.
  • The Russian strikes – hitting vital energy facilities in the coldest weeks of winter – were led by Vladimir Putin’s Tu-22 and Tu-95 strategic bombers.
  • The onslaught was seen as instant revenge for Tuesday’s Ukrainian aerial strikes on Russia, the heaviest of the almost three-year war.
  • In particular, Putin was rattled by Ukraine’s use of British Storm Shadow and American ATACMS missiles which hit key defense facilities including a chemical plant in Bryansk region.
  • NATO forces went on full alert in Poland with warplanes scrambled, the country’s operational command headquarters said.
  • ‘Duty fighter pairs have been scrambled, and the ground-based air defense and radar reconnaissance systems have reached the highest state of readiness,’ said a statement.
  • ‘The steps taken are aimed at ensuring security in the areas bordering the threatened areas.’

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Russian Zeppelin-like aircraft appear near NATO border: message is clear ‘We are watching you’

Blimp on Estonia Russia Border

Important Takeaways:

  • The strange, Zeppelin-like aircraft had been spotted on the Russian side of the frontier near Narva, a Russian-speaking Estonian town on the far edges of Nato territory.
  • After some debate, Estonian police chose to ignore the blimp and hoped that would be the end of the matter. But the next day, it came back – this time marked with a “Z”, the symbol of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • “We are seeing things like this nearly every week,” Egert Belitšev, the director-general of the Estonian police, said during a tour of Narva’s border checkpoint, the day before Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, arrived in the country for a security summit with Baltic and Nordic leaders.
  • “It was intentionally made visible to everyone, to say: ‘We are watching you.’”
  • “Two years ago we had 18 border incidents and this year we had 96,”
  • “We have seen constant attempts to destabilize the situation.”
  • In one of the more serious incidents in May, Russian border guards removed 20 buoys from the Narva river in the middle of the night in an apparent attempt to redraw the edges of Russia’s territory.
  • “They did it at 3am – this is not something you do if it is a proper or normal thing,” Mr. Belitšev said.
  • Moscow is also trying to push irregular migrants across the Estonian border, and across the Baltic Sea into Finland.
  • Police say there have even been cases of Russians trying to smuggle drone parts across the Estonia border to support Putin’s war.
  • “Russia will remain a threat for a very significant time, we don’t see any changes in the mindset of the Russian regime,” Mr. Tori said.
  • “Russia’s understanding is that we will become more tired and they can outlast us in this war of aggression. Russia sees itself as being at war with Nato and therefore the ends justify the means.”

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Russia retaliates for Ukraine’s use of ATACMS by attacking power grid and military bases

A worker looks up as they repair equipment at a thermal power plant that was damaged during a missile attack, at an undisclosed location in Ukraine, on December 5

Important Takeaways:

  • NATO fighter jets have been scrambled in Poland and along the Alliance’s eastern flank
  • Russia staged a brutal attack on Ukraine this morning, targeting energy and military facilities to plunge civilians into darkness and misery ahead of the festive season.
  • A massive Russian onslaught had been expected, but there were no immediate reports of fearsome medium range ballistic missile Oreshnik being deployed, as had been predicted, although it may yet come.
  • Instead, Ukraine was hit with Iskander, Kalibr, Kinzhal [or Dagger] missiles and Iranian-designed Shahed kamikaze drones, launched from Tu-95MS strategic bombers and MiG-31Ks.
  • The capital Kyiv was hit by major power cuts – and underground trains stopped running, while people huddled in metro stations to escape the bombardment.
  • There were reports of an airbase being hit, along with warehouses and a plant producing drones and repairing helicopters.
  • Ukraine’s national power operator Ukrenergo warned that today half the country would be without power – with temperatures of minus 5C – due to the latest Putin onslaught, ahead the Christmas festivities.
  • Explosions ranged across Ukraine from Ivano-Frankivsk in the west to Kharkiv in the east.
  • Among the other regions hit were Kyiv, Odesa, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Cherkasy, Khmelnitsk, Lviv, and Ternopil.
  • Russia had warned of a powerful response to a Ukrainian strike this week with US-supplied ATACMS missiles on a military airbase in Taganrog.

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Time to turbocharge defense production; shift to a ‘wartime mindset’

Nato Dragon 24 military exercise in March near Gniew, Poland

Important Takeaways:

  • Britain and other members of Nato have been urged to shift to a ‘wartime mindset’ amid the ongoing threats from Russia.
  • Head of the military alliance, Mark Rutte, warned that nations are not ready for the coming years – and that much higher defense spending is needed to keep the enemy at bay.
  • He said more than 3% of GDP had been splurged during the Cold War, but that future spending would have to be much higher than the current target of 2%.
  • ‘Russia is preparing for long-term confrontation, with Ukraine and with us,’ Rutte said in a speech in Brussels.
  • ‘We are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years,’ the Nato secretary-general said.
  • He added: ‘It is time to shift to a wartime mindset and turbocharge defense production and defense spending.’

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Digging into the Archives of NYT several officials discuss the possibility of returning nuclear weapons to Ukraine to deter Russia

Ukrainian troops near the front lines

Important Takeaways:

  • One question is whether the new administration and Europe will provide security guarantees to prevent Russia from taking more territory.
  • The one gold-standard security guarantee that Ukraine wants is an invitation to join NATO. But it could not get that under Mr. Biden, and an invitation is unlikely during Mr. Trump’s presidency.
  • So, U.S. and European officials are discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine, such as stockpiling a conventional arsenal sufficient to strike a punishing blow if Russia violates a cease-fire.
  • Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union. That would be an instant and enormous deterrent. But such a step would be complicated and have serious implications.

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