Important Takeaways:
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko reportedly said that the Kremlin wants an “ironclad” guarantee that Ukraine will be prohibited from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), as the Trump administration works to broker a deal to end the fighting.
- “We will demand that ironclad security guarantees become part of this agreement,” Grushko was quoted by the Russian newspaper Izvestia as saying, according to Reuters. “Part of these guarantees should be the neutral status of Ukraine, the refusal of NATO countries to accept it into the alliance.”
- Grushko reportedly made no mention of the 30-day cease-fire proposal, which was accepted by Ukraine with U.S. negotiators in Saudi Arabia last week. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that any agreement must first meet crucial conditions.
- U.S. special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff told CNN on Sunday that Trump and Putin are expected to speak on the phone this week. Witkoff himself described having a “positive” and “solution-based” meeting with Putin in Moscow last week.
- Grushko reportedly reiterated in the interview with Izvestia that Russia remains strictly opposed to the deployment of European troops to Ukraine, as Britain, France and Australia have signaled being open to sending a NATO “peacekeeping” force to the country.
- “It does not matter under what label NATO contingents were to be deployed on Ukrainian territory: be it the European Union, NATO, or in a national capacity,” Grushko said, according to Reuters. “If they appear there, it means that they are deployed in the conflict zone with all the consequences for these contingents as parties to the conflict.”
- French President Emmanuel Macron, meanwhile, was quoted as telling several French media outlets on Saturday that the intention is to “deploy a few thousand men per nation, at key points, to carry out training programs” and “show our support over the long term.”
- “If Ukraine asks allied forces to be on its territory, it is not up to Russia to accept or not,” Macron reportedly said.
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Important Takeaways:
- The Polish president said there’s a need for NATO’s deterrence to shift eastward to Poland following the end of the Cold War
- Polish President Andrzej Duda has asked the US to deploy nuclear weapons to Poland to deter a potential Russian invasion.
- Duda argued that NATO’s deterrence should shift eastward from Germany to Poland following the end of the Cold War, adding that he has discussed the option with Washington’s Ukraine-Russia envoy Keith Kellogg. However, Duda did not divulge the details of the conversation.
- “The borders of NATO moved east in 1999, so 26 years later there should also be a shift of the NATO infrastructure east. For me this is obvious,” Duda told the Financial Times (FT).
- “I think it’s not only that the time has come, but that it would be safer if those weapons were already here,” he added.
- Duda made a similar remark in the summer of 2024, saying at the time that Poland was ready to host nuclear arms if NATO decides to deploy the weapons in the face of Russia reinforcing its armaments in Belarus and Kaliningrad.
- Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk also made similar comments in recent days, saying Warsaw has been “talking seriously” with France to deploy its nuclear arsenal in Poland after French President Emmanuel Macron talked of a potential nuclear umbrella for Europe.
- Duda also referenced Russia’s deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in neighboring Belarus in his comments to the FT. Poland shares a border with Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave and Moscow ally Belarus.
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Important Takeaways:
- A politician vying to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s next leader has suggested forming a closer alliance with Britain and France as the NATO nations possess nuclear weapons, which could help safeguard the Canadians against potential threats posed by President Donald Trump.
- Chrystia Freeland, former deputy prime minister under Trudeau, warned that Trump poses a direct “threat” to Canada’s sovereignty by saying that the country could potentially become the 51st U.S. state.
- What Happens Next
- Canada is hoping that the head of state, Britain’s King Charles III, will condemn Trump’s statements on annexing the nation. Trudeau met with the king on Monday at the monarch’s royal residence Sandringham, Norfolk, east England.
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Important Takeaways:
- NATO was forced to scramble its warplanes in Poland today as Vladimir Putin used strategic bombers and missiles to attack neighboring Ukraine – even as Vladimir Putin insists he wants peace ‘as soon as possible’.
- Putin’s air force deployed Tu-95MS nuclear-capable strategic bombers to pound targets across Ukraine, causing panic in Kyiv as residents rushed for the metro underground shelters.
- Explosions were heard in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Sumy, as well as in several towns across the regions of Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv. Drones were also used by Russia, with several people reportedly suffering injuries.
- Warsaw’s armed forces operation command headquarters ordered NATO jets to patrol Polish airspace as Russian bombers and missiles soared over Ukraine amid fears they could approach the Polish border.
- ‘Attention, due to the activity of long-range aviation of the Russian Federation, striking targets located, in particular, in the west of Ukraine, military aviation has begun to operate in the airspace of Poland,’ the command headquarters said.
- Ground-based air defenses and radar reconnaissance systems were also ‘put on alert’.
- It comes just one day after a US B-52 bomber flew a sortie less than 50 miles from the Russian border in a show of strength on the third anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine.
- The B-52 jet, which is described as providing the US with ‘immediate nuclear and conventional global strike capability’, flew from RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire to the frontline NATO state and was flanked by F35s and F-A18 fighters.
- The planes jetted in formation over soldiers and tanks as a military parade of over 1,000 troops from NATO and the Estonia’s Defense Forces took place in the Estonian capital of Tallinn.
- February 24 marked three years since Russian troops invaded Ukraine, and is also Estonian Independence Day.
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Important Takeaways:
- US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that the war between Ukraine and Russia “must end,” that Kyiv joining NATO is unrealistic and that the US will no longer prioritize European and Ukrainian security as the Trump administration shifts its attention to securing the US’ own borders and deterring war with China.
- In remarks before a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Hegseth also said that European troops should be the primary force securing a post-war Ukraine—something US troops will not be involved in, he added.
- “The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement,” Hegseth said. And he added that any security guarantees offered to Ukraine “must be backed by capable European and non-European troops.”
- “To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be US troops deployed to Ukraine,” he said.
- “We’re also here today to directly and unambiguously express that stark strategic realities prevent the United States of America from being primarily focused on the security of Europe,” he said
- Hegseth emphasized that the US “remains committed to the NATO alliance and to the defense partnership with Europe. Full stop. But the United States will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency.”
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Important Takeaways:
- Ukraine gave up its Cold War-legacy nuclear arsenal in the 1990s “for nothing” and would seek to acquire nuclear bombs again if it wasn’t able to quickly join NATO in the aftermath of the present war or a ceasefire, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Monday.
- The Ukrainian president told British broadcaster Piers Morgan in an interview published on Tuesday night that, from his perspective, letting Ukraine into the NATO alliance would be a considerably better deal for its members because it would be so much cheaper. With NATO membership, Russia would not dare invade, he believes, but the level of security guarantees required to keep Moscow polite otherwise would be ruinously expensive.
- To keep Ukraine secure without NATO would mean Ukraine’s allies funding a million-man army, including troop “contingents” from Western nations as peacekeepers or reinforcements, funding missile systems to keep the skies clear, and Ukraine acquiring its own nuclear deterrent.
- He said, per the Piers Morgan show’s translation: “If not NATO, we will need to sustain a million [man] army, but the hundreds of thousands that we have will not be enough, they are on the offense and we do not have enough… That is huge money… so that’s why I think NATO is the cheapest option. If not NATO, then we must [build] this huge army with huge money, that means contingents from our partners, and undoubtedly that is a big deterrence missile package against the Ruskis”
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Important Takeaways:
- NATO’s perennial cycle of eastward expansion has been disastrous for European security, and “spells the beginning of the end of NATO as we know it,” Michael Maloof, senior former Pentagon analyst previously underscored.
- A launch of an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) weapon at a height of about 200 miles from a satellite to explode a nuclear device up in orbit would knock out all the electronics of NATO countries, including the US, Michael Maloof, former Pentagon senior security policy analyst, told Sputnik.
- “Look, in the United States alone on the East Coast, 70% of the US population relies on the Eastern grid. Around 90% of all US bases rely on energy from the local community grids. If those are knocked out, there’s no communication. And the United States is not geared up for that,” he added
- Looking ahead, he predicted that fissures could tear the alliance apart.
- “NATO’s going to probably begin to fracture and splinter into more regional defense alliances in the years to come,” Maloof speculated, suggesting that it might begin with the Scandinavian countries and then spread to the Eastern European countries.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia is rearming faster than first thought for a potential attack on Nato, Germany’s military pointman on Ukraine has warned.
- On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president, Maj Gen Christian Freuding said that Russia had already replaced missiles and tanks lost in its invasion of Ukraine.
- “The Russian armed forces are not just able to compensate for their enormous personnel and material losses… they are successfully rearming,” he told Die Welt newspaper.
- Vladimir Putin has reorientated the Russian economy to feed his war machine and has also bought extra supplies from Iran and North Korea which Maj Gen Freuding, who is head of the German military’s task force, said was helping Russia replenish its tanks, missiles and drones.
- He warned that although it was not clear that Putin had plans to attack Nato, he was “clearly creating the conditions for it”.
- “Production is growing, the supplies in the depots are growing,” he said.
- Germany is locked in a debate ahead of a national election next month on whether to back a £2.5 billion aid package for Ukraine.
- In Ukraine, Russian forces have surrounded the fortress town of Pokrovsk and are on the brink of capturing one of the last Ukraine-held villages in south Donetsk.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held his annual press conference in Moscow, and although he had criticism toward the UDS on a range of subjects, he did bring warm words of praise towards new President Trump.
- He especially commended Trump’s analysis pointing at NATO’s plan to include Ukraine as one of the root causes of the conflict.
- Lavrov reiterated that peace talks have to include ‘broader arrangements for security in Europe’.
- Associated Press reported:
- “Trump said Russia had it ‘written in stone’ that Ukraine’s membership in NATO should never be allowed, but the Biden administration had sought to expand the military alliance to Russia’s doorstep. Trump added that, ‘I could understand their feelings about that’.”
- Trump’s comments lift the seriousness of discussion, moving away from the tired old trope of denouncing Russia’s action as ‘an unprovoked act of aggression’.
- “’NATO did exactly what it had promised not to do, and Trump said that’, Lavrov said. ‘It marked the first such candid acknowledgement not only from a U.S. but any Western leader that NATO had lied when they signed numerous documents. They were used as a cover while NATO has expanded to our borders in violation of the agreements’.”
- “Lavrov also praised comments by Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Mike Waltz, who said Sunday it’s unrealistic to expect that Ukraine could drive Russian forces ‘from every inch of Ukrainian soil’.
- ‘The very fact that people have increasingly started to mention the realities on the ground deserves welcome’, Lavrov said during his annual news conference in Moscow.”
- “’Threats on the western flank, on our western borders, must be eliminated as one of the main reasons (of the conflict)’, he said. ‘They can probably be eliminated only in the context of some broader agreements’.”
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Important Takeaways:
- NATO scrambled its warplanes early today in response to a fierce Russian bombardment of Ukraine close to its border with Poland.
- The Russian strikes – hitting vital energy facilities in the coldest weeks of winter – were led by Vladimir Putin’s Tu-22 and Tu-95 strategic bombers.
- The onslaught was seen as instant revenge for Tuesday’s Ukrainian aerial strikes on Russia, the heaviest of the almost three-year war.
- In particular, Putin was rattled by Ukraine’s use of British Storm Shadow and American ATACMS missiles which hit key defense facilities including a chemical plant in Bryansk region.
- NATO forces went on full alert in Poland with warplanes scrambled, the country’s operational command headquarters said.
- ‘Duty fighter pairs have been scrambled, and the ground-based air defense and radar reconnaissance systems have reached the highest state of readiness,’ said a statement.
- ‘The steps taken are aimed at ensuring security in the areas bordering the threatened areas.’
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