European Union leaders to host Turkey’s Erdogan, the estranged uncle they can’t shut out

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan greets his supporters during a meeting of the ruling AK Party in Corum, Turkey January 28, 2018.

By Gabriela Baczynska and Robin Emmott

BRUSSELS (Reuters) – European Union leaders are so discomfited by their relationship with Turkey these days that they relegated their summit next month to Varna, a Bulgarian Black Sea port, rather than hold it in Brussels.

But despite their wariness over President Tayyip Erdogan, who has cracked down hard on critics at home and lashed out at the West, they need him too much to turn their backs.

Turkish and European Union officials both expect an uneasy atmosphere at the summit on March 26. But the European hosts will have little choice but to hear Erdogan out as he asks for more money for Syrian refugees, a deeper customs union and progress in talks on letting Turks visit Europe without visas.

On the one hand, European leaders have robustly criticized Turkey for what they see as rapid backsliding on democracy and human rights, especially during a crackdown in the wake of a failed coup in 2016. Some of Erdogan’s hostile rhetoric toward Europe last year, including comparing the Dutch and German governments to Nazis, has been, for EU leaders, beyond the pale.

But on the other hand, European countries still rely on Turkey as a NATO ally on Europe’s southern flank. And an EU deal with Erdogan that halted the mass influx of Syrian refugees into the bloc means the Turkish leader is like an estranged relative that you can’t disinvite from a family dinner, no matter how badly you think he has behaved.

“You intensely dislike the person you have in front of you, but you just cannot do without him,” said Marc Pierini, a former EU ambassador to Turkey and now an analyst at Carnegie Europe think-tank.

Turkey says it is in Europe’s interest to be warm.

“If the EU gives positive signals to Turkey, the more Turkey will do in terms of reforms,” said Ankara’s envoy to the European Union, Faruk Kaymakci.

“But the more the EU isolates Turkey, the more inward-looking and nationalist it will turn,” he told reporters, calling for more “trust and confidence at the top level”.

A senior EU official said Turkey had sought to have the summit in Brussels, but the bloc decided to hold it in Varna instead to lower its profile. Bulgaria, Turkey’s neighbor, has better relations with Ankara than some other EU states and holds the rotating EU presidency for the first half of 2018.

“INCREDIBLY UNCOMFORTABLE”

The senior EU official described European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who will chair the Varna meeting with European Council President Donald Tusk, as furious over Erdogan’s crackdown. Some 50,000 people, including journalists, have been arrested and 150,000, including teachers, judges and soldiers, sacked or suspended from their jobs.

“For the EU, this is incredibly uncomfortable. They are backsliding on everything,” the senior EU official said.

Juncker has warned Turkey that it cannot count on any significant rapprochement with the EU as long as it keeps journalists in jail.

The Netherlands formally withdrew its ambassador to Ankara this month, after 2017 was marked by Erdogan calling German and Dutch officials “fascists” for stopping rallies in support of a referendum in Turkey to grant Erdogan broader powers. Germany is particularly angry that some German citizens are among those arrested in Erdogan’s purge.

Turkey is still a candidate to join the EU, having applied decades ago. But after years of on-and-off progress, including under Erdogan who first took power in 2003, the EU froze the accession talks over the crackdown since the botched coup.

Brussels is deeply skeptical that Ankara would reverse the crackdown to deliver the democratic and judicial reforms that would be required to restart those negotiations.

But Kaymakci, the Turkish envoy, said he still hoped the bloc would commit another 3 billion euros ($3.7 bln) for Syrian refugees in Turkey at the Varna summit, and move forward with talks on letting Turks enter Europe without visas.

EU officials say Turkey does not meet criteria for visa-free travel. When it comes to money for refugees, the bloc is looking at how to accommodate Turkey, acknowledging its role in hosting them and committing to look into funding.

Turkey’s request to deepen its customs union, which already allows tariff-free trade with the EU for most goods, is also likely to be politely rebuffed. Germany in particular has opposed further talks on customs for now.

The price Erdogan will have to pay for being invited to Varna, EU officials say, will be listening to his hosts speak frankly. Just weeks after the summit, the European Commission will release what is certain to be a damning report on the situation in Turkey.

(Additional reporting by Dominic Evans in Ankara; Writing by Gabriela Baczynska; Editing by Peter Graff)

Tight deadline for talks after nationalist surge in Northern Ireland

Sinn Fein President Gerry Adam sand Sinn Fein leader Michelle O'Neill speak to media outside the Sinn Fein offices on Falls Road in Belfast, Northern Ireland March 4, 2017. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne

By Ian Graham

DUBLIN (Reuters) – Northern Irish leaders prepared on Saturday for three weeks of challenging talks to save their devolved government after a snap election that could have dramatic implications for the politics and constitutional status of the British province.

The pro-British Democratic Unionist Party narrowly remained the largest party after the closest-ever election for the provincial assembly. But surging Irish nationalists Sinn Fein came within one seat of their rivals to deny unionist politicians a majority for the first time since Ireland was partitioned in 1921.

Major policy differences between the sides risk paralyzing government, dividing communities and creating an unwelcome distraction for Prime Minister Theresa May as she prepares to launch Britain’s formal divorce proceedings from the European Union later this month.

Northern Ireland is the poorest region of the United Kingdom and potentially the one most economically exposed to Brexit, as its frontier with the Republic of Ireland is the UK’s only land border with the EU.

“The election yesterday was in many, many ways a watershed election. Clearly the notion of a permanent or a perpetual unionist majority has been demolished,” Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams told reporters in Belfast.

“We need to reflect on that and so do the leaders of unionism and so does everyone on this island,” he added, standing in front of a mural of Bobby Sands, a member of the militant Irish Republican Army (IRA) who died in a hunger strike in prison in 1981.

The two largest parties have three weeks to form a new power-sharing government to avoid a return to direct rule from London for the first time since 2007. Sinn Fein said it would make contact with the other parties on Sunday.

GENERATIONAL SHIFT

With relations at their lowest point in a decade and Sinn Fein insisting among its conditions that DUP leader Arlene Foster step aside before it will re-enter government, few analysts think an agreement can be reached in that time.

An acrimonious campaign also added to the friction. Foster antagonized nationalists with her outright rejection of some of Sinn Fein’s demands, saying: “If you feed a crocodile, it will keep coming back looking for more.”

Michelle O’Neill, the 40-year-old new leader of Sinn Fein whose elevation represented a generational shift within the former political wing of the IRA, benefited most from the highest turnout in two decades.

“Foster angered nationalists and made sure they went out to vote but Michelle O’Neill is also a much more acceptable nationalist face than previously,” said Gary Thompson, a 57-year-old voter, as he went for a jog near parliament buildings.

Pensioner Tom Smyth, a DUP supporter, said Foster had to stand up to Sinn Fein but in doing so probably helped mobilize her rivals’ vote.

“This is terrible,” he said. “There will be no living with them (Sinn Fein) now. All my life there has been a Unionist political majority. I feel a bit exposed now and wonder what the future holds.”

Nationalist candidates, traditionally backed by Catholics, narrowed the gap overall with unionists, who tend to be favored by Protestants, to just one seat. Smaller, non-sectarian parties captured the remaining 12 percent of the vote.

IRISH UNIFICATION

Northern Ireland is still marginally a mainly Protestant province but demographics suggest Catholics could become the majority within a generation. The shift in the election will embolden Sinn Fein in its ultimate goal of leaving the United Kingdom and uniting the island of Ireland.

The party has increased calls for a referendum on the issue since Northern Ireland, like Scotland, voted to remain in the EU while the United Kingdom’s two other countries, England and Wales, chose to leave in last year’s Brexit vote.

Sinn Fein’s Mairtin O’Muilleoir, the province’s outgoing finance minister, described Brexit as “the gift that keeps on giving” for those that want a united Ireland.

“The massive shift towards nationalism in this election completely changes the landscape and most certainly brings the constitutional question to the foreground,” said Peter Shirlow, Director of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool.

Britain’s Northern Ireland Minister James Brokenshire urged the parties to engage intensively in the short time available. Ireland’s foreign minister said both governments stood ready to provide whatever support was needed.

Former Northern Ireland first minister David Trimble, a key player in the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement that ended three decades of sectarian bloodshed, said the British government should find a way to give the parties more time.

Senior unionist politician Jeffrey Donaldson told BBC Radio:

“If we can’t do it in three weeks it could be a prolonged period of direct rule.

“In those circumstances, with Brexit coming down the road, we won’t have our own administration to speak for us and offer the best prospect of delivering the kind of outcome we need.”

(Writing by Padraic Halpin; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)

Northern Ireland talks to begin after transformative election

Sinn Fein elected candidates for East Belfast (L to R) Fran McCann, Orlaithi Flynn, Pat Sheehan and Alex Maskey pose on stage at the count centre in Belfast, Northern Ireland March 3, 2017. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne

By Ian Graham

DUBLIN (Reuters) – Northern Irish leaders prepared on Saturday for three weeks of challenging talks to save their devolved government after a snap election that could have dramatic implications for the politics and constitutional status of the British province.

The pro-British Democratic Unionist Party narrowly remained the largest party following the closest-ever election for the provincial assembly. But surging Irish nationalists Sinn Fein came within one seat of their rivals to deny unionist politicians a majority for the first time since Ireland was partitioned in 1921.

Major policy differences between the sides risk paralyzing government and dividing communities just as Britain prepares to leave the European Union. Northern Ireland, the poorest region of the United Kingdom, which has its only land border with the EU, is considered the most economically exposed to Brexit.

“Everything has changed and we enter into a new political landscape from Monday,” outgoing finance minister Mairtin O’Muilleoir of Sinn Fein told national Irish broadcaster RTE.

The two largest parties have three weeks to form a new power-sharing government to avoid devolved power returning to London for the first time since 2007.

With relations at their lowest point in a decade and Sinn Fein insisting among its conditions that DUP leader Arlene Foster step aside before it will re-enter government, few analysts think an agreement can be reached in that time.

An acrimonious campaign also added to the friction. Foster’s outright rejection of some Sinn Fein’s demands by saying that “if you feed a crocodile, it will keep coming back looking for more” antagonized and rallied nationalists.

Michelle O’Neill, the 40-year-old new leader of Sinn Fein whose elevation represented a generational shift within the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army, benefited most from the highest turnout in two decades.

“Foster angered nationalists and made sure they went out to vote but Michelle O’Neill is also a much more acceptable nationalist face than previously,” said Gary Thompson, a 57-year-old voter, as he went for a jog near parliament buildings.

Pensioner Tom Smyth, a DUP supporter, said Foster had to stand up to Sinn Fein but in doing so probably helped mobilize their rivals’ vote.

“This is terrible,” he said. “There will be no living with them (Sinn Fein) now. All my life there has been a Unionist political majority. I feel a bit exposed now and wonder what the future holds.”

IRISH UNIFICATION

Nationalist candidates, traditionally backed by Catholics, also narrowed the gap overall with unionists, who tend to be favored by Protestants, to just one seat. Smaller, non-sectarian parties captured the remaining 12 percent of the vote.

Northern Ireland is still marginally a mainly Protestant province but demographics suggest Catholics could become the majority within a generation. The shift in the election will embolden Sinn Fein in its ultimate goal of uniting Ireland.

The party has increased calls for a border poll since Northern Ireland, like Scotland, voted to remain in the EU while the United Kingdom’s two other countries, England and Wales, chose to leave.

Sinn Fein’s O’Muilleoir described Brexit as “the gift that keeps on giving” for those that want a united Ireland.

“The massive shift towards nationalism in this election completely changes the landscape and most certainly brings the constitutional question to the foreground,” said Peter Shirlow, Director of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool.

Taking over the administration of Northern Ireland is not a prospect likely to please British prime minister Theresa May, already fighting a renewed independence push from Scotland as she readies her Brexit launch at the end of the month.

Her Northern Ireland Minister James Brokenshire urged the parties to engage intensively in the short time available.

Former Northern Ireland first minister David Trimble, who was instrumental to the 1998 Good Friday peace agreement that ended three decades of sectarian bloodshed, said the British government should find a way to give the parties more time.

“If we can’t do it in three weeks it could be a prolonged period of direct rule,” Jeffrey Donaldson, a senior member of the DUP told BBC Radio.

“In those circumstances, with Brexit coming down the road, we won’t have our own administration to speak for us and offer the best prospect of delivering the kind of outcome we need.”

(Writing by Padraic Halpin; Editing by Catherine Evans)

Poll sees Irish nationalist vote up in Northern Ireland election

Tellers count ballots in the Northern Ireland assembly elections, in Ballymena, Northern Ireland March 3, 2017. REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne

BELFAST (Reuters) – Turnout was higher among Irish nationalist voters than pro-British unionists in elections in Northern Ireland on Thursday, an online exit poll indicated, but it was unclear if it would be enough to shift the balance of power in the British province.

Nationalists who favor a united Ireland and unionists who want Northern Ireland to remain British are jostling for position ahead of talks on Britain’s exit from the European Union, which is set to determine the province’s political and economic future.

Opinion polls ahead of the election indicated that the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party would lose votes but remain the largest party, followed by Irish nationalists Sinn Fein.

An online exit poll by Lucid Talk found that turnout appeared to be 2-3 percent higher among nationalist voters compared to an election year ago while turnout for unionist voters was unchanged.

“People seem to be more engaged on the Republican side to come out and vote,” said Bill White, managing director at Lucid Talk. “That differential turnout could come into play when last seats are in play.”

While analysts say Sinn Fein is unlikely to become the largest party for the first time – an outcome that would turn Northern Ireland politics on its head – a strong showing could help them secure concessions from the DUP.

Sinn Fein is insisting that DUP leader Arlene Foster step aside before it will consider re-entering government. While the DUP have rejected this outright, a poor result might force her to step down.

The largest unionist and nationalist parties after the election will have three weeks to form a power-sharing government to avoid devolved power returning to the British parliament at Westminster for the first time in a decade.

While no one predicts the impasse will bring a return to the violence that killed 3,600 people in the three decades before a 1998 peace agreement, some are warning of a deterioration in community relations coupled with government paralysis as Brexit talks determine the province’s political and economic future.

Sinn Fein brought on the election by collapsing the power-sharing government in January over the role of the DUP in a scandal over heating subsidies that could cost the state 500 million pounds. The DUP deny wrongdoing.

(Reporting by Ian Graham and Conor Humphries; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

Trump vows military build-up, hammers nationalist themes

U.S. President Donald Trump addresses the American Conservative Union's annual Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland. U.S., February 24, 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

By Emily Stephenson and Steve Holland

NATIONAL HARBOR, Md./WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump said he would make a massive budget request for one of the “greatest military buildups in American history” on Friday in a feisty, campaign-style speech extolling robust nationalism to eager conservative activists.

Trump used remarks to the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), an organization that gave him one of his first platforms in his improbable journey to the U.S. presidency, to defend his unabashed “America first” policies.

Ahead of a nationally televised speech to Congress on Tuesday, Trump outlined plans for strengthening the U.S. military, already the world’s most powerful fighting force, and other initiatives such as tax reform and regulatory rollback.

He offered few specifics on any initiatives, including the budget request that is likely to face a harsh reality on Capitol Hill: At a time when he wants to slash taxes for Americans, funding a major military buildup without spending cuts elsewhere would add substantially to the U.S. budget deficit.

Trump said he would aim to upgrade the military in both offensive and defensive capabilities, with a massive spending request to Congress that would make the country’s defense “bigger and better and stronger than ever before.”

“And, hopefully, we’ll never have to use it, but nobody is going to mess with us. Nobody. It will be one of the greatest military buildups in American history,” Trump said.

Appealing to people on welfare to go to work and pledging to follow through on his vow to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexican border, Trump drew rounds of applause from the large gathering of conservatives, many of them wearing hats emblazoned with the president’s campaign slogan, “Make America Great Again.”

His speech was heavy on the nationalist overtones from his campaign last year, focusing on promises to boost U.S. economic growth by retooling international trade deals, cracking down on immigration and boosting energy production.

ROCKY FIRST MONTH

Trump is looking to put behind him a rocky first month in office. An executive order he signed aimed at banning U.S. entry by people from seven Muslim-majority countries became embroiled in the courts and he had to fire his national security adviser, Michael Flynn, for Russian contacts before Trump took office.

With the federal budget still running a large deficit, Trump will have to fight to get higher military spending through Congress. In his speech, he complained about spending caps put in place on the defense budget dating back to 2011.

He also heaped criticism on what he called purveyors of “fake news,” seeking to clarify a recent tweet in which he said some in the U.S. news media should be considered an “enemy of the people.”

He said his main beef was the media’s use of anonymous sources. “They shouldn’t be allowed to use sources unless they use somebody’s name. Let their name be out there,” Trump said.

His comments came on the same day CNN reported that White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus asked FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe to deny a Feb. 14 report in the New York Times that said Trump’s presidential campaign advisers had been in frequent contact with Russian intelligence officers. The request came after McCabe told him privately the report was wrong.

A senior administration official said on Friday that FBI Director James Comey told Priebus later that the story was not accurate. Priebus asked if the Federal Bureau of Investigation could set the record straight, but Comey said the bureau could not comment, the official said.

Trump has repeatedly chosen to make news media criticism a focus of his public remarks since taking office on Jan. 20.

The speech allowed Trump to put his stamp firmly on the conservative political movement, even as some activists fretted that his immigration and trade policies go too far.

With Trump in the White House and Republicans holding majorities in both houses of Congress, CPAC and the thousands of conservative activists who flock to the event each year from across the country are seeing their political influence rising.

(Additional reporting by Richard Cowan; Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh and Jonathan Oatis)