Hezbollah is preparing for a long war of attrition in south Lebanon

site of Israeli air strike

Important Takeaways:

  • Hezbollah is preparing for a long war of attrition in south Lebanon, after Israel wiped out its top leadership, with a new military command directing rocket fire and the ground conflict, two sources familiar with its operations said.
  • Hezbollah has been diminished by three weeks of devastating Israeli blows – most notably the killing of its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.
  • Friends and foes alike are now watching how effectively it resists Israeli troops that have crossed into Lebanon with the stated aim of driving it away from the border.
  • The Iran-backed group still has a considerable stockpile of weapons, including its most powerful precision missiles which it has yet to use, four sources familiar with its operations said, despite waves of airstrikes that Israel says has severely depleted its arsenal.
  • “The fact that the chain of command has been damaged does not take away the ability to shoot Israeli communities or try to hit” Israeli forces, Levine told Reuters, describing Hezbollah as “the same powerful terror army we all know.”
  • A statement this week signed by the “operations room of the Islamic Resistance” said fighters were resisting incursions and “watching and listening” to Israeli troops where they least expect it – an apparent reference to concealed Hezbollah positions.
  • Israel says it aims to secure the return of tens of thousands of people who evacuated northern Israel after Hezbollah began firing rockets a year ago in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza.

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Hezbollah is still without a new leader

deputy chief of Hezbollah Sheikh Naim Qassem

Important Takeaways:

  • Hezbollah is still without a new leader, nearly two weeks after its long-serving chief was killed in an Israeli strike and with its deputy head apparently unwilling to step into the role.
  • Hezbollah’s deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem—currently considered the organization’s top official—said in a video address streamed by Iranian news outlet Press TV on Tuesday that a new leader would be elected, suggesting he would not take up the mantle
  • Dahiyeh is described by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) as Hezbollah’s nerve center and de-facto base, and has come under heavy Israeli bombardment in recent weeks.
  • Hezbollah has many branches and commanders at varying levels, many of whom Israel has said it has killed.
  • Israel had reportedly targeted Safieddine late last week, but there had been no confirmation whether he had been killed.
  • As well as Nasrallah and Safieddine, other leading Hezbollah figures reported to have been killed include Ali Karaki, Ibrahim Aqeel and Fu’ad Shakar.
  • On Tuesday, Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to Israel’s northern border with Lebanon that Hezbollah “is an organization without a head,” adding that “Nasrallah was eliminated, his replacement was probably also eliminated.”
  • On Tuesday, the IDF said it had killed Suhail Hussein Husseini, described by the Israeli military as the commander of Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut.

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Biden, Netanyahu phone call to discuss Israeli plans for retaliatory strike on Iran

Biden on call with Netanyahu

Important Takeaways:

  • The call, under way late Wednesday morning U.S. time, was the leaders’ first known chat since August and coincided with a sharp escalation of Israel’s conflict with both Iran and the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah with no sign of an imminent ceasefire to end the conflict with Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza.
  • The Middle East has been on edge awaiting Israel’s response to a missile attack last week that Tehran carried out in retaliation for Israel’s military escalation in Lebanon.
  • The Iranian attack ultimately killed no one in Israel and Washington called it ineffective.
  • Netanyahu has promised that arch-foe Iran will pay for its missile attack, while Tehran has said any retaliation would be met with vast destruction, raising fears of a wider war in the oil-producing region which could draw in the United States.
  • Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant canceled a Wednesday visit to the Pentagon, the Pentagon said, as Israeli media reported Netanyahu wanted first to speak with Biden.
  • Israel has faced calls by the United States and other allies to accept a ceasefire deal in Gaza and Lebanon but has said it will continue its military operations until Israelis are safe.

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Netanyahu urged Lebanon to “take back your country” and return it to a path of peace and prosperity

Netanyahu addresses the 79th UNGA

Important Takeaways:

  • Israeli forces have killed the would-be successors of late Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Tuesday, without naming them.
  • “We’ve degraded Hezbollah’s capabilities. We took out thousands of terrorists, including Nasrallah himself and Nasrallah’s replacement, and the replacement of the replacement,” Netanyahu said in a pre-recorded video message.
  • Netanyahu did not identify by name Nasrallah’s replacement that he claimed Israel had killed.
  • It was not immediately clear who Netanyahu meant in his comments by the “replacement of the replacement”.
  • “Today, Hezbollah is weaker than it has been for many, many years,” Netanyahu said in his video message, which was directed at the people of Lebanon.
  • “Israel has a right to defend itself. Israel also has a right to win. And Israel will win,” Netanyahu said.
  • He urged Lebanon to “take back your country” and return it to a path of peace and prosperity and take advantage of an opportunity that hasn’t existed in decades.
  • “If you don’t, Hezbollah will continue to try to fight Israel from densely populated areas at your expense. It doesn’t care if Lebanon is dragged into a wider war,” he added. “Christians, Druze, Muslims — Sunnis and Shiites — all of you are suffering because of Hezbollah’s futile war against Israel.
  • “Don’t let these terrorists destroy your future any more than they’ve already done,” Netanyahu added. “You have an opportunity to save Lebanon before it falls into the abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering like we see in Gaza. It doesn’t have to be that way.”

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Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel’s third largest city Haifa on Monday as Israeli forces poised to expand ground raids into south Lebanon

Hezbollah fires rockets

Important Takeaways:

  • Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel’s third largest city Haifa on Monday as Israeli forces looked poised to expand ground raids into south Lebanon on the first anniversary of the Gaza war, which has spread conflict across the Middle East.
  • Iran-backed Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas, the Palestinian militant group fighting Israel in Gaza, said it targeted a military base south of Haifa with “Fadi 1” missiles and launched another strike on Tiberias, 65 km (40 miles) away.
  • Hezbollah said it targeted areas north of Haifa in a second salvo of missiles later in the day.
  • The military said the air force was carrying out extensive bombings of Hezbollah targets in south Lebanon, and that two Israeli soldiers were killed in border-area combat, taking the military death toll inside Lebanon so far to 11.
  • It said it also carried out a targeted strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs, where a thick plume of smoke could be seen.
  • The spiraling conflict has raised concerns that the United States, Israel’s superpower ally, and Iran will be sucked into a wider war in the oil-producing Middle East.
  • The Gaza war has given rise to a multi-front Middle East conflict, drawing in Iran’s broader “Axis of Resistance” – Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, Iraqi militia groups – and sparking several rare, direct confrontations between Israel and Iran.

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Israel carried out a series of massive airstrikes overnight

Map Lebanon evacuations

Important Takeaways:

  • Israel carried out a series of massive airstrikes overnight, hitting suburbs of Beirut and cutting off the main border crossing between Lebanon and Syria for tens of thousands of people fleeing Israeli bombardment.
  • Israel’s military said that Hezbollah had launched about 100 rockets into Israel on Friday, as fighting continued between Israel and the militant group.
  • The Israeli military also said Friday that a strike in Beirut the day before killed Mohammed Rashid Skafi, the head of Hezbollah’s communications division. The military said in a statement that Skafi was “a senior Hezbollah terrorist who was responsible for the communications unit since 2000” and was “closely affiliated” with high-up Hezbollah officials.
  • Israel said it had targeted the crossing because it was being used by Hezbollah to transport military equipment across the border. It said fighter jets had struck a tunnel used to smuggle weapons from Iran and other proxies into Lebanon.
  • Hezbollah is believed to have received much of its weaponry from Iran via Syria.
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived Friday in Beirut for meetings with Lebanese officials. He warned that if Israeli carries out an attack on Iran, Tehran would retaliate in a harsh way.
  • Israel’s military said Friday that militants in Gaza fired two rockets into Israeli territory, the first time Israel has seen rocket fire from Gaza in about a month.
  • The number of rockets fired from Gaza into Israel has slowed considerably since the start of the war.

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Israel extends evacuation warnings in southern Lebanon that are north of a U.N.-declared buffer zone

Evacuations from Lebanon

Important Takeaways:

  • The Israeli military on Thursday warned people to evacuate a city and other communities in southern Lebanon that are north of a U.N.-declared buffer zone, signaling that it may widen a ground operation launched earlier this week against the Hezbollah militant group.
  • Israel has told people to leave Nabatieh, a provincial capital, and other communities north of the Litani River, which formed the northern edge of the border zone established by the U.N. Security Council after the two sides fought a war in 2006.
  • Israel has been pounding areas of the country where the militant group has a strong presence since late September, but has rarely struck in the heart of the capital.
  • The Israeli military said Thursday that it had struck around 200 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including weapons storage facilities and observation posts. It said the strikes killed at least 15 Hezbollah fighters.
  • So far, ground clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants have been confined to a narrow strip along the border.
  • President Joe Biden said he did not expect Israel to retaliate against Iran on Thursday and rejected the suggestion that the U.S. would grant permission for such an attack.
  • “First of all, we don’t ‘allow’ Israel, we advise Israel,” Biden said. “And nothing’s going to happen today.”

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Israel’s military told residents in south Lebanon to evacuate immediately

Evacuate Lebanon

Important Takeaways:

  • Israel’s military told residents of more than 20 towns in south Lebanon to evacuate their homes immediately on Thursday as it pressed on with cross-border incursions and struck Hezbollah targets in a suburb of Beirut.
  • Hezbollah also carried out new strikes, targeting what it called Israel’s “Sakhnin base” for military industries in Haifa Bay on the Mediterranean coast of northern Israel with a salvo of rockets.
  • Israel says the aim of its operations in Lebanon is to allow tens of thousands of its citizens displaced from northern Israel by Hezbollah bombardments during the Gaza war to return home safely
  • In Beirut’s southern suburb known as Dahiye, a dense neighborhood where Hezbollah holds sway, several explosions were heard on Thursday and several large plumes of smoke were rising after heavy Israeli strikes.
  • Hezbollah said it detonated a bomb against Israeli forces infiltrating a southern Lebanese village and attacked Israeli forces near the border.
  • Overnight, Israel bombed central Beirut in an attack the Lebanese health ministry said killed nine people.
  • The United States has said Iran will face “severe consequences” and that it would work with Israel, while warning Iran not to act against U.S. forces in the region.
  • A growing number of countries were evacuating citizens from Beirut as governments worldwide urged their citizens to get out.

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Israeli officials say all options will be on the table

Exploded projectile Gedera-\ Israel

Important Takeaways:

  • Israel and Iran have never been closer to opening up a new and far more dangerous front in the war that has engulfed the Middle East.
  • Iran threatened on Tuesday that if Israel responds with force to the nearly 200 missiles it launched on Tuesday, it will attack again.
  • If that happens, Israeli officials say all options will be on the table – including strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
  • Many Israeli officials point to Iran’s oil facilities as a likely target, but some say targeted assassinations and taking out Iran’s air defense systems are also possibilities.
  • “The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. They will understand. We will stand by the rule we established: whoever attacks us, we will attack him,” Netanyahu said.

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Eight Israeli soldiers have been killed inside Lebanon; Hezbollah declared it was ‘only the first round’

IDF Chief: We have capabilities to reach and strike any point in the Middle East

Important Takeaways:

  • Eight Israeli soldiers have been killed amid intense clashes in southern Lebanon after commando units were ambushed by Hezbollah fighters earlier today, the IDF has revealed.
  • News of the losses came as Hezbollah declared it was ‘only the first round’ of its fight against Israel, while the IDF released video footage showing its special forces carrying out the invasion for the first time.
  • Hezbollah’s media officer Mohammad Afif sought to dispel speculation that the Lebanese militant outfit had been weakened by ongoing Israeli attacks
  • ‘Our forces and resistance are fully prepared to confront and resist the enemy. I tell everyone that the resistance is fine and the command and control system is fine,’ Afif declared.
  • ‘What happened today in Misgav Am, Maroun al-Ras and Adaisseh today is only the beginning,’ Afif said.
  • Meanwhile, Israel’s military is preparing a response to yesterday’s shocking attack by Iran that saw nearly 200 ballistic missiles streak across the Middle East and rain down on Israel last night.

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