Organized Retail Crime has grown worse in an age of Elevated Inflation

Revelations 13:16-18 “Also it causes all, both small and great, both rich and poor, both free and slave, to be marked on the right hand or the forehead, so that no one can buy or sell unless he has the mark, that is, the name of the beast or the number of its name. This calls for wisdom: let the one who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man, and his number is 666.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Target CEO: We’re seeing ‘violent’ incidents in our stores, and it’s costing us millions
  • The retailer estimated in its earnings release Wednesday that inventory shrinkage — mostly the theft of merchandise — would clip profits by a whopping $500 million this year.
  • Factoring in an about $700 million profit hit from inventory shrinkage in 2022, Target is on pace to see $1.2 billion in profits go up in smoke, due primarily to organized retail crime.
  • “These concerns have grown in recent years, as criminal groups have become more brazen and violent in their tactics and are using new channels to resell stolen goods.”
  • Nordstrom (JWN) recently followed Whole Foods in exiting a key location in San Francisco, citing concerns over worker safety.
  • Independent news site The San Francisco Standard has tracked 20 closures of household-name stores in the city since 2010, including Office Depot.

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Americans are no longer able to buy New Cars

Revelations 13:16-18 “Also it causes all, both small and great, both rich and poor, both free and slave, to be marked on the right hand or the forehead, so that no one can buy or sell unless he has the mark, that is, the name of the beast or the number of its name. This calls for wisdom: let the one who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man, and his number is 666.”

Important Takeaways:

  • New cars, once part of the American Dream, now out of reach for many
  • Ramirez, 33, and his wife Angelica Castro-Calle really want a new, small SUV with a little space for camping and paddleboarding gear. But despite good jobs in finance and business contracting, the couple’s monthly loan payment would run around $700 for the $35,000 models they are looking at, before dealer markups.
  • The problems pushing new cars out of reach are twofold. On the demand side, rising interest rates have made car loans far more costly — the average monthly payment reached $686 in mid-2022, according to data from Edmunds. Last month, it hit $730.
  • But even if shoppers can snag a decent interest rate, the supply of cars available for purchase has been trending far more expensive, in part because manufacturers have been funneling resources into souped-up versions of pricey models and cutting back on cheaper options.
  • In late April, General Motors announced it would scrap production of its top-selling electric vehicle, the Chevy Bolt, wiping out one of the most affordable EVs in the United States by the end of the year. That continues a longtime trend. In 2017, for example, there were 11 models available on the U.S. market for less than $20,000, according to Cox data. By the end of 2022, there were four. Then, by March 2023, only 2.
  • The end result is a widening gap between those who can afford new cars and those who can’t.
  • Dealers say manufacturers are lifting prices beyond what customers will go for, in some cases leaving dealers stuck with models they can’t sell. Earlier this spring, White had 76 new vehicles on the lot of her Annapolis, Md., car dealership. At the time, she had no takers on the $88,000 Jeep Wagoneer. The $115,000 Grand Wagoneer? Not budging. Many of her cars cost between $50,000 and $60,000.

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More people are looking to Food Banks for help

Revelations 13:16-18 “Also it causes all, both small and great, both rich and poor, both free and slave, to be marked on the right hand or the forehead, so that no one can buy or sell unless he has the mark, that is, the name of the beast or the number of its name. This calls for wisdom: let the one who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man, and his number is 666.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Lines stretch down the block at food banks as costs go up and pandemic aid expires
  • Many more Americans now are going hungry than at the peak of the pandemic aid. Some 24.6 million adults didn’t have enough to eat in early April versus 16.7 million the same month two years ago, the Census Bureau estimates.
  • At the same time, food prices have soared more than any other major category of consumer costs except energy since the start of the pandemic, disproportionately burdening poor Americans who devote a larger share of their resources to such essential expenses. Since February 2020, the last month before the pandemic lockdown, grocery prices have surged half again as much as the 16% increase in overall consumer prices.
  • Concerns are rising of a recession on the horizon, adding to the peril for households on edge. Morgan Stanley economists said the expiration of the pandemic food stamp benefit is already weighing on economic growth and project an annualized $50 billion hit to disposable income.
  • The Haymarket Regional Food Pantry in Gainesville, Virginia, an outer Washington suburb, added 55 new weekly intake appointments in April after a 90% increase in families seeking food
  • The Central Pennsylvania Food Bank, which supplies more than 1,100 local pantries around the rural Susquehanna Valley, faced 10% more demand in March. At Southern Colorado’s Care and Share Food Bank, which distributes to soup kitchens, pantries and emergency shelters across 29 mostly rural counties, requests for aid rose 20%.

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Western Europe hit highest level of Inflation in nearly half a century

Groceries with Cart

Revelations 13:16-18 “Also it causes all, both small and great, both rich and poor, both free and slave, to be marked on the right hand or the forehead, so that no one can buy or sell unless he has the mark, that is, the name of the beast or the number of its name. This calls for wisdom: let the one who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man, and his number is 666.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Food Prices Hit Highest Level in Nearly Half a Century Amid Double Digit Inflation
  • Food prices in Britain have hit their highest level in nearly a half-century amid continued double-digit inflation, while wages fell yet again in real terms.
  • According to the government statistician agency, the prices of bread and cereals were up 19.4 per cent in the year to March, the highest rate recorded on record since the government began tracking such figures in 1989. Meanwhile, the sharpest price increases were recorded among food items produced with olive oil which were up by 49 per cent on the year, followed by milk products at 38 per cent, and ready-made meals, which were up 21 per cent over last year, the BBC reported.
  • The annual rates for chocolate, confectionery, and hot beverages also all hit their highest levels on record.

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Recession is coming but to what degree?

Revelations 13:16-18 “Also it causes all, both small and great, both rich and poor, both free and slave, to be marked on the right hand or the forehead, so that no one can buy or sell unless he has the mark, that is, the name of the beast or the number of its name. This calls for wisdom: let the one who has understanding calculate the number of the beast, for it is the number of a man, and his number is 666.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Just when it seemed there was a light at the end of the tunnel with pandemic-related disruptions subsiding, the vast majority of U.S. CEOs (91%) are convinced we are heading toward a recession in the next 12 months. Moreover, only about a third of U.S. CEOs (34%) believe this recession will be mild and short.
  • The key issues to overcome in the next 12 months are inflation, higher interest rates and a potential collapse in demand, says Swonk, noting that the Fed is opting to increase interest rates to derail inflation. Even at the risk of a slowdown, raising rates is a better option than allowing a more corrosive and entrenched inflation to take hold, which could cause a deeper recession with larger scars, she adds.

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40-Year-High Inflation has more Americans working 2nd job and living pay check to pay check

Biden Ice Cream Cone

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • Report: 44% of Americans Work a Second Job, 13% Increase Under Biden
  • The recent increase under President Joe Biden is highlighted by a survey from FlexJobs, which found 69 percent of employed professionals either have a side job or want one.
  • The desire to work longer hours at a second job comes as Biden’s 40-year-high inflation cost American households an extra $5,200 in 2022 or $433 per month on average, according to Bloomberg.
  • The LendingClub report also revealed 62 percent of Americans, including 48 percent of high-income consumers, were living paycheck to paycheck

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Banks are on the brink of a real disaster

Revelations 18:9-11 “The kings of the earth who committed fornication and lived luxuriously with her will weep and lament for her, when they see the smoke of her burning, 10 standing at a distance for fear of her torment, saying, ‘Alas, alas, that great city Babylon, that mighty city! For in one hour your judgment has come.’ 11 “And the merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her, for no one buys their merchandise anymore

Important Takeaways:

  • CNN’s Quest: ‘More Banks Are Going to Go out of Business’ — They’re ‘Stuffed’ with Bonds
  • On Wednesday’s broadcast of CNN International’s “One World,” CNN host, International Business Correspondent, and CNN Business Editor-at-Large Richard Quest stated that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike will make things “worse” for banks because “all the banks are stuffed to the gills with these government bonds” that will be devalued by the rate hikes. And predicted that there will be more banks going out of business, particularly state and regional banks.

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Feds boost Interest Rates again adding an additional $1.7 billion in credit card bills

Inflation Graph

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • What the Fed’s rate hike means for your wallet: Quarter-point increase will add $1.7 billion to US credit card bills over the next year
  • The Fed on Wednesday boosted its benchmark rate a quarter percentage point, to a range of 4.75 percent to 5 percent, its highest level in 16 years and up from near zero a year ago.
  • The latest rate increase will cost American credit card users a collective $1.7 billion in added interest charges over the next 12 months, according to a study from WalletHub.
  • That’s on top of the $30.4 billion more in credit card interest charges the study chalks up to the Fed’s prior rate hikes since last March, when the central bank’s policy rate was near zero
  • Government data shows that the amount of consumer loans, including credit cards and other revolving plans with commercial banks, soared to $965.6 billion on March 8. That’s up from $830 billion at the same time last year.

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Stress of high inflation with no pandemic aid show Bankruptcies on the rise

Bankruptcy

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived

Important Takeaways:

  • Now that pandemic aid has vanished, bankruptcies are on the rise
  • Total bankruptcy filings in January shot up 19% in January to 31,087, up 19% from a year ago, according to data from Epiq, a legal research firm. The number of Americans who filed for bankruptcy across Chapters 7, 11 and 13 shot up 20% in January from a year ago.
  • The surge in filings comes as rising interest rates and high inflation continue to stress household budgets.

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Used car prices are up 37% as more Americans are piling on debt

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • Car Debt Is Piling Up as More Americans Owe Thousands More Than Vehicles Are Worth
  • For the typical American, a new car is increasingly out of reach. Today, about two out of 13 people are making monthly car payments of $1,000 or more. For many, there’s no choice: They have few or no public transportation options and need a car to get to work, bring children to school and buy groceries.
  • “Because these car loans are generally unaffordable at the outset, that means that every month, borrowers are getting closer to the financial edge,” said Kathleen Engel, a law professor at Suffolk University.
  • The cost of new vehicles has risen 20% since the start of the pandemic, while used vehicles are still up 37% even after cooling in the fall.

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