Tag Archives: Housing Market

U.S. mortgage applications rise as loan costs fall

FILE PHOTO: A home "SOLD" sign hangs in front of a house in Vienna, on the day the National Association of Realtors issues its Pending Home Sales for February report, in Virginia March 27, 2014. REUTERS/Larry Downing

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. mortgage applications to buy a home and to refinance one increased last week as most borrowing costs fell in step with U.S. bond yields tied to worries about slowing economic growth, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed on Wednesday.

The Washington-based industry group’s seasonally adjusted index on mortgage activity rose 2.3 percent to 384.0 in the week ended March 8. The gauge has risen three of the past four weeks.

(Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

U.S. existing home sales fall sharply to three-year low

FILE PHOTO - A sold sign hangs in front of a house in Dallas, Texas September 24, 2009. REUTERS/Jessica Rinaldi

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. home sales fell in January to their lowest level in more than three years and house prices rose only modestly, suggesting a further loss of momentum in the housing market.

The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday existing home sales dropped 1.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.94 million units last month.

That was the lowest level since November 2015 and well below analysts’ expectations of a rate of 5.0 million units. December’s sales pace was revised slightly higher.

The drop in January came after months of weakness in the U.S. housing market. Existing home sales were down 8.5 percent from a year ago.

The U.S. housing market has been stymied by a sharp rise in mortgage rates since 2016 as well as land and labor shortages. That has led to tight inventory and more expensive homes.

At the same time, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dipped in recent months and house price inflation is slowing.

The median existing house price increased 2.8 percent from a year ago to $247,500 in January. That was the smallest increase since February 2012.

Last month, existing home sales fell in three of the country’s four major regions, rising only in the Northeast.

There were 1.59 million previously owned homes on the market in January, up from 1.53 million in December.

At January’s sales pace, it would take 3.9 months to exhaust the current inventory, up from 3.7 months in December. A supply of six to seven months is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.

(Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. homebuilding slowing; labor market strong

FILE PHOTO: Construction workers are pictured building a new home in Vienna, Virginia, outside of Washington, October 20, 2014./File Photo

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding rebounded less than expected from a nine-month low in July, suggesting the housing market was likely to tread water for the rest of this year against the backdrop of rising construction costs and labor shortages.

But the fundamentals for the housing market remain strong. New filings for jobless benefits fell again last week, other data showed on Thursday, pointing to sustained labor market strength despite an escalating trade war between the United States and China that has rattled financial markets.

“It is more expensive to buy a new home for the American worker,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “We cannot be confident that home construction will pick up in the near future.”

Housing starts rose 0.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.168 million units in July, the Commerce Department said. Starts fell to a nine-month low in June.

Groundbreaking activity increased in the Midwest and South, but dropped in the Northeast, and hit a more than 1-1/2-year low in the West. Last month’s increase in starts still left the bulk of June’s 12.9 percent plunge intact.

Building permits increased 1.5 percent to a rate of 1.311 million units, snapping three straight months of decreases. With permits now outpacing starts, homebuilding could pick up in the months ahead. But gains are likely to be limited as builders continue to complain about rising construction costs as well as shortages of skilled labor and land.

Lumber prices shot up after the Trump administration slapped anti-subsidy duties on imports of Canadian softwood lumber. Though prices have dropped in the past months, they remain high.

The housing market has underperformed a robust economy, with economists also blaming the slowdown on rising mortgage rates, which have combined with higher house prices to make home purchasing unaffordable for some first-time buyers.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen more than 50 basis points this year to an average of 4.53 percent, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. While that is still low by historical standards, the rise has outpaced annual wage growth, which has been stuck below 3 percent.

At the same time, house prices have increased more than 6.0 percent on an annual basis, largely driven by a dearth of properties available for sale. Residential investment contracted in the first half of the year and economists do not expect housing to contribute to growth in the final six months of 2018.

The economy grew at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, the fastest in nearly four years and almost double the 2.2 percent pace logged in the January-March period.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts rising to a pace of 1.260 million units last month and permits increasing to a rate of 1.310 million units.

“Given the chronic lack of affordable housing and rapidly escalating home prices, it is worrisome that on a per capita basis, the country is producing new single-family housing stock at a rate that is similar to the trough of a typical recession,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac.

The PHLX housing index <.HGX> was trading higher, tracking a broadly firmer U.S. stock market. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies and U.S. Treasury prices fell.

TIGHT SUPPLY

Single-family home building, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, rose 0.9 percent to a rate of 862,000 units in July. Single-family homebuilding has lost momentum since hitting a pace of 948,000 units last November, which was the strongest in more than 10 years.

Permits to build single-family homes jumped 1.9 percent in July to a pace of 869,000 units. Single-family building permits in the South, where more than half of homebuilding occurs, vaulted to an 11-year high in July.

Starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment gained 0.7 percent to a rate of 306,000 units in July. Permits for the construction of multi-family homes climbed 0.7 percent to a pace of 442,000 units.

With the moderate rise in homebuilding last month, housing inventory is likely to remain tight. In addition, housing completions fell for a third straight month, hitting an eight-month low rate of 1.188 million.

Realtors estimate that housing starts and completion rates need to be in a range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million units per month to plug the inventory gap. The stock of housing under construction was little changed at 1.122 million units.

In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended Aug. 11.

The claims data is being closely watched for signs of layoffs as a result of the Trump administration’s protectionist trade policy, which has also led to tit-for-tat import tariffs with other trading partners, including the European Union, Canada, and Mexico.

There have been reports of some companies either laying off workers or planning to as a result of the import duties. But with many companies reporting difficulties finding qualified workers, the fallout from the trade tensions might be minimal.

A third report showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region slowing sharply in August as new orders growth cooled. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its business conditions index tumbled 14 points to a 21-month low of 11.9 this month. Manufacturers were, however, optimistic about business prospects over the next six months.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. home sales hit 11-year high in November, supply still tight

A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012.

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. home sales increased more than expected in November, hitting their highest level in nearly 11 years, the latest indication that housing was regaining momentum after almost stalling this year.

The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday that existing home sales surged 5.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.81 million units last month amid continued recovery in areas in the South ravaged by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. That was the highest level since December 2006 and followed an upwardly revised 5.50 million-unit pace in October.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales rising 0.9 percent to a 5.52 million-unit rate in November from a previously reported 5.48 million-unit pace in October.

Existing home sales make up about 90 percent of U.S. home sales. They rose 3.8 percent on a year-on-year basis in November.

The NAR said sales in the South, which accounts for almost half of the existing homes sales market, increased 8.3 percent last month. Sales rose 6.7 percent in the Northeast and jumped 8.4 percent in the Midwest. They, however, fell 2.3 percent in the West, which has seen a strong increase in house prices.

Despite the recent gains, existing home sales remain constrained by a chronic shortage of houses at the lower end of the market, which is keeping prices elevated and sidelining some first-time buyers, who accounted for 29 percent of transactions last month.

Economists and realtors say a 40 percent share of first-time buyers is needed for a robust housing market.

The number of previously owned homes on the market dropped 7.2 percent to 1.67 million units in November. That was the second lowest reading since 1999. Housing inventory has dropped for 30 straight months on a year-on-year basis.

At November’s sales pace, it would take a record low 3.4 months to exhaust the current inventory, down from 3.9 months in October. A six-month supply is viewed as a healthy balance between supply and demand.

With supply still tight, the median house price increased 5.8 percent from a year ago to $248,000 in November. That was the 69th consecutive month of year-on-year price gains. In contrast, annual wage growth has struggled to break above 2.9 percent since the 2007/09 recession ended.

The report came on the heels of data this week showing homebuilder confidence vaulting to a near 18-1/2-year high in December and single-family homebuilding and permits rising in November to levels last seen in the third quarter of 2007.

TAX REVAMP WILL HURT HOUSE PRICES

The NAR said it anticipated a slightly negative impact on the housing market from the Republican overhaul of the U.S. tax code.

The biggest overhaul of the tax system in more than 30 years, which could be signed into law by President Donald Trump soon, will cap the deduction for mortgage interest at $750,000 in home loan value for residences bought from Jan. 1, 2018, through Dec. 31, 2025.

After Dec. 31, 2025, the cap would revert to $1 million in loan value. It suspends the deduction for interest on home equity loans from Jan. 1, 2018 until 2026. The NAR said about 94 percent of homeowners would fall under the $750,000 cap.

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi has warned that the tax revamp would weigh on house prices, with the Northeast corridor, South Florida, big Midwestern cities, and the West Coast suffering the biggest price declines.

“The hit to national house prices is estimated to be near 4 percent at the peak of their impact in summer 2019,” said Zandi. “That is, national house prices will be approximately 4 percent lower than they would have been if there was no tax legislation.”

The PHLX housing index was trading higher in line with a broadly firmer stock market. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. Prices for U.S. Treasuries fell.

The government reported on Tuesday that single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, jumped 5.3 percent in November to the highest level since September 2007.

Permits for the future construction of these housing units rose 1.4 percent to a level not seen since August 2007. Housing completions continued to lag at a rate of 1.116 million units.

Realtors estimate that the housing starts and completions rates need to be in a range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million units per month to plug the inventory gap.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. housing starts fall for second straight month; outlook murky

U.S. housing starts fall for second straight month; outlook murky

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding fell for a second straight month in August as a rebound in the construction of single-family houses was offset by persistent weakness in the volatile multifamily home segment.

The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed building permits racing to a seven-month high in August. However, permits for single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, dropped.

The mixed report suggested housing could remain a drag on economic growth in the third quarter. Homebuilding has been treading water for much of this year amid shortages of land and skilled labor as well as rising costs of building materials.

Housing starts slipped 0.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.18 million units, the Commerce Department said.

Building permits surged 5.7 percent to a rate of 1.30 million units in August, the highest level since January.

The data suggested limited impact on permits from Hurricane Harvey, which lashed Texas in late August and caused unprecedented flooding in Houston. The Commerce Department said the response rate from areas affected by the storm “was not significantly lower.”

But homebuilding could slump further in September in the aftermath of Harvey and Hurricane Irma, which struck Florida. According to Census Bureau data, the areas in Texas and Florida that were devastated by the storms accounted for about 13 percent of permits issued in the nation last year.

Though activity could pick up as the hurricane-ravaged communities rebuild, the dearth of labor could curb the pace of increase in homebuilding. A survey Monday showed confidence among homebuilders fell in September amid concerns that the hurricanes could worsen the labor shortages and make building materials more expensive.

Economists had forecast housing starts rising to a 1.18 million-unit pace last month. Investment in homebuilding contracted in the second quarter at its steepest pace in nearly seven years. As a result, housing subtracted 0.26 percentage point from second-quarter gross domestic product.

Homebuilding rose 1.4 percent in August on a year-on-year basis. Despite the recent weakness, housing continues to be supported by a labor market that is near full employment. In addition, mortgage rates remain close to historic lows.

Single-family homebuilding jumped 1.6 percent to a rate of851,000 units in August. Single-family permits, however, fell 1.5 percent to a 800,000-unit pace. With permits lagging starts, single-family homebuilding could decline in the months ahead. Groundbreaking on single-family housing projects has slowed since vaulting to near a 9-1/2-year high in February.

MIXED DATA

Last month, single-family starts rose in the South and West, but fell in the Midwest and Northeast. Starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment tumbled 6.5 percent to a rate of 329,000 units. Multi-family permits vaulted 19.6 percent to a 500,000-unit pace in August.

The mixed data is unlikely to change expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce on Wednesday a plan to start unwinding its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Fed officials were scheduled to start a two-day meeting later on Tuesday.

The dollar was trading lower against basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. Treasuries rose. U.S. stock futures were slightly higher.

In a separate report on Tuesday, the Labor Department said import prices jumped 0.6 percent in August, the biggest gain since January, after dipping 0.1 percent in July.

In the 12 months through August, import prices surged 2.1 percent after rising 1.2 percent in July.

Last month, prices for imported petroleum raced 4.8 percent after slipping 0.4 percent in July. Import prices excluding petroleum rose 0.3 percent after dipping 0.1 percent the prior month. Import prices excluding petroleum increased 1.0 percent in the 12 months through August.

Import prices outside petroleum are rising as the dollar’s rally fades. The dollar has weakened 8.3 percent against the currencies of the United States’ main trading partners this year.

The report also showed export prices rose 0.6 percent in August after gaining 0.5 percent in July. They increased 2.3 percent year-on-year after rising 0.9 percent in August.

A third report from the Commerce Department showed the current account deficit, which measures the flow of goods, services and investments into and out of the country, increased to $123.1 billion in the second quarter from $113.5 billion in the first quarter.

That was the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2008.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. consumer confidence hits five-month high; house prices rise

A 'for sale' is seen outside a single family house in Garden City, New York, U.S., May 23, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S consumer confidence surged to a five-month high in August as households grew increasingly upbeat about the labor market while house prices rose further in June, suggesting a recent acceleration in consumer spending was likely to be sustained.

The data on Tuesday also supported views that economic growth would accelerate in the second half of the year after a sluggish performance earlier.

“Despite a daily dose of worrying headlines, consumers still have plenty to be confident about right now. Home prices are rising, stocks are just off record highs and the labor market is churning out jobs,” said Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “That should continue to support solid consumer spending growth through the rest of the year.”

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to a reading of 122.9 this month from 120.0 in July. That was the strongest reading since March when the index hit a 16-year high of 124.9. August was also the second highest reading since 2000.

The survey’s so-called labor market differential, derived from data about respondents who think jobs are hard to get and those who think jobs are plentiful, was the best in 16 years.

This measure closely correlates to the unemployment rate in the Labor Department’s employment report and is consistent with further absorption of labor market slack. The labor market is near full employment, with the unemployment rate at 4.3 percent.

Strong consumer confidence bodes well for consumer spending, which accelerated in the second quarter after slowing at the start of the year. It also provides a boost to the economy after it grew 1.9 percent in the first half of the year.

The dollar pared losses against a basket of currencies on the data. Prices for U.S. Treasuries were little changed after earlier rising on safe-haven buying after North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan’s northern Hokkaido island into the sea. Stocks on Wall Street were marginally lower.

BULLISH CONSUMERS

Economists said bullish consumer optimism, together with the tightening labor market, were compelling reasons for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates again this year despite worries about persistently low inflation.

“Consumers seem very confident in their ability to find a new job. They also are becoming more bullish on the outlook for stock prices even as the market holds near record highs,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.

“The Fed has put significant weight on consumer confidence in forming its views on the economy and, from that perspective, this report supports further rate increases.”

The U.S. central bank has raised rates twice this year. Economists expect the Fed will announce a plan to start reducing its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities in September and hike rates in December.

The Conference Board survey showed consumers mildly upbeat about their short-term income prospects. The percentage of consumers expecting an improvement in their income rose slightly to 20.9 percent this month from 20.0 percent in July. The share expecting a drop fell to 7.8 percent from 9.5 percent in July.

Despite being near full employment, the labor market has struggled to generate strong wage growth, a frustration for both consumers and policymakers.

A second report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller composite index of house prices in 20 metropolitan areas rose 5.7 percent in June on a year-over-year basis after a similar increase in May.

An acute shortage of homes on the market and strong demand are pushing up house prices. While rising house prices are boosting equity for homeowners, the dearth of properties is hurting home sales.

“Tight market conditions will drive house prices higher over the remainder of the year, although cautious appraisals and tougher mortgage lending regulations will act to prevent a dangerous house price boom,” said Matthew Pointon, an economist at Capital Economics in New York.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Additional reporting by Richard Leong in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. new home sales jump, median price surges to record high

A view of single family homes for sale in San Marcos, California October 25, 2013. REUTERS/Mike Blake

By Lindsay Dunsmuir

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New U.S. single-family home sales rose in May and the median sales price surged to an all-time high, suggesting the housing market had regained momentum.

The Commerce Department said on Friday new home sales increased 2.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 610,000 units last month. April’s sales pace was also revised sharply higher to 593,000 units from 569,000 units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which make up about 10 percent of all home sales, rising 5.4 percent to a pace of 597,000 units last month. Sales were up 8.9 percent on a year-on-year basis in May.

“While the data quality of the new home sales report is notoriously poor, the general picture from this report and the existing home sales report is one of solid housing demand in the important spring selling season,” said Michael Feroli, an economist with J.P. Morgan.

The housing market has been bolstered by continued strong job growth. The unemployment rate fell to a 16-year low of 4.3 percent in May and mortgage rates are still favorable by historical standards.

However, an increase in the cost of building materials and shortages of lots and labor have crimped homebuilding. With demand outstripping supply, house prices remain elevated.

The median house price rose to a record high of $345,800 in May, from $310,200 in the prior month. The average sales price last month was $406,400, also a record high.

The U.S. dollar pared losses against the yen after the data. U.S. stocks were trading modestly higher while prices of U.S. Treasuries edged up.

Across the nation’s four regions, new home sales were mixed. They fell 25.7 percent in the Midwest and 10.8 percent in the Northeast, but rose 13.3 percent in the West and 6.2 percent in the South, which accounts for a large share of the housing market.

The inventory of new homes on the market increased 1.5 percent to 268,000 units last month.

At May’s sales rate, it would take 5.3 months to clear inventory, unchanged from April. A six-month supply is seen as a healthy balance between supply and demand.

(Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Paul Simao)

Fed’s Fischer says more to be done to prevent future crises

FILE PHOTO: U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer addresses The Economic Club of New York in New York, U.S. on March 23, 2015. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

(Reuters) – Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair Stanley Fischer on Tuesday warned that while the U.S. and other countries have taken steps to make their housing finance systems stronger, more needs to be done to prevent a future crisis.

Fischer did not address the outlook for U.S. monetary policy or the economy in remarks prepared for delivery to the DNB-Riksbank Macroprudential Conference Series in Amsterdam.

Instead he focused on preventing financial instability, arguing that since the 2007-2009 financial crisis in the United States, “the core of the financial system is much stronger, the worst lending practices have been curtailed, much progress has been made in processes to reduce unnecessary foreclosures,” and a 2008 law helped clarify the status of government support for housing agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

But to prevent a new crisis, he said, governments ought to do more, including stress tests for banks on their resilience should house prices decline dramatically, and making it easier to avoid foreclosures, which hurt both lenders and borrowers.

“(T)here is more to be done, and much improvement to be preserved and built on, for the world as we know it cannot afford another pair of crises of the magnitude of the Great Recession and the Global Financial Crisis,” he said.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; editing by Diane Craft)

U.S. pending home sales drop for second straight month

A U.S. flag decorates a for-sale sign at a home in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of Washington, August 21, 2012. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell for a second straight month in April amid a supply squeeze, but the housing market recovery remains supported by a strong labor market.

The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed last month, dropped 1.3 percent to 109.8.

Economists had forecast pending home sales rising 0.5 percent last month. Pending home sales fell 3.3 percent from a year ago. That is the first year-on-year drop since last December and the largest since June 2014.

“Much of the country for the second straight month saw a pullback in pending sales as the rate of new listings continues to lag the quicker pace of homes coming off the market,” said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun. “Realtors are indicating that foot traffic is higher than a year ago.”

Pending home contracts become sales after a month or two, and last month’s fall suggested a further decline in home resales after they dropped 2.3 percent in April.

Demand for housing is being driven by a tight labor market, marked by a 4.4 percent unemployment rate, which is generating wage increases and boosting employment opportunities for young Americans.

Sales activity, however, remains constrained by tight inventories, which are driving up home prices. Housing inventory has dropped for 23 straight months on a year-on-year basis.

Pending home sales fell in the Northeast, Midwest and South last month, but surged 5.8 percent in the West.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

U.S. housing starts unexpectedly fall for second straight month

FILE PHOTO -- Construction workers build a single family home in San Diego, California, U.S. on February 15, 2017. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo

WASHINGTON – U.S. homebuilding unexpectedly fell in April amid a persistent decline in the construction of multi-family housing units and a modest rebound in single-family projects, pointing to a slowdown in the housing market recovery.

Housing starts dropped 2.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.17 million units, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. That was the lowest level since last November and followed a downwardly revised rate of 1.20 million units in March.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast groundbreaking activity rising to a rate of 1.26 million units last month from a previously reported rate of 1.22 million units in March.

Homebuilding increased 0.7 percent on a year-on-year basis.

Single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the residential housing market, rebounded 0.4 percent to a pace of 835,000 units last month. That left the bulk of the 5.1 percent decline in March intact.

Single-family starts surged 19.4 percent in the Midwest and advanced 9.1 percent in the West. They fell 3.4 percent in the South and tumbled 29.2 percent in the Northeast.

Some of the drop in starts, especially in the Northeast, could be weather-related after a snowstorm lashed the region in March. Demand for housing remains underpinned by a tightening labor market, characterized by an unemployment rate at a 10-year low of 4.4 percent.

A survey on Monday showed homebuilders’ confidence rose in May, with bullishness about current sales and over the next six months.

Last month, starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment dropped 9.2 percent to a pace of 337,000 units. Multi-family starts have declined for four straight months.

Building permits fell 2.5 percent, driven by a 4.5 percent drop percent in the single-family segment. Multi-family permits rose 1.4 percent.

((Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao))