Tag Archives: gas prices

Expect Inflation to hit 10% analysts warn

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Russia’s Ukraine war threatens to blow US food prices sky-high
  • Inflation nearing a dangerous high, experts warn
  • It began with a rapid rise in gas prices. Now, with Russian oil banned in the United States and energy scarcity heightened globally, experts say shoppers can expect their grocery bills to rise in coming months
  • Russia and Ukraine produce 25% of the global wheat supply, according to the Observatory for Economic Complexity. While neither of these countries export wheat to the U.S. directly, their absence from the global market is expected to strain supply and push prices higher.
  • “It comes an absolutely horrible time for American consumers because we’re looking every day at inflation almost reaching 10%,” Dan Varroney

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As Gas prices hit record highs thieves find ways to steal gas

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Nearly 400 gallons of gas stolen from North Carolina gas station
  • The incident occurred as gas prices have spiked around the country amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, hitting a record high of $4.43 per gallon average last week.
  • The previous record high was $4.11 per gallon in July 2008.
  • More than 15 cars pulled up and filled up their tanks after business hours after someone used a special device allowing them to bypass the payment system. Over the course of about 45 minutes, $1,600 worth of gas was stolen from the Bizzy Bee Grocery Store and Gas Station in High Point, said owner Hardik Patel.

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Psaki says Government can’t help with skyrocketing gas prices, inflation is not their fault

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Psaki says Biden ‘can’t do much’ about skyrocketing gas prices, again blames Putin and says record 7.9% inflation will be ‘temporary’ after President said it would be ‘short-term’ last spring
  • White House press secretary Jen Psaki doubled down on blaming Vladimir Putin for rising inflation in the U.S.
  • Came after Biden blamed Vladimir Putin, thought the latest report does not capture the full impact of Russia’s invasion
  • US Consumer Price Index rose 7.9 percent in February from a year ago, the most since June 1982
  • Soaring prices are affecting food, clothing, shelter and other basic necessities for regular Americans
  • Gasoline has continued to skyrocket since the February report, suggesting inflation will only get worse
  • It is adding to political pressure on Biden and congressional Democrats ahead of the key midterms

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Everyday items, skyrocketing prices…could Recession be next?

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Record gas prices are pushing up everyday costs, dampening economic recovery
  • Americans are facing sticker shock at gas stations across the country, but surging global energy costs are rippling through the economy in other ways, too:
    • Airlines are scaling back on flights. Truckers are adding fuel surcharges. And lawn care companies and mobile dog groomers are upping their service fees.
  • The average price for a gallon of gas jumped 13% this week, according to AAA. Overall gasoline prices are up 38% from a year ago, according to the Labor Department’s latest inflation figures.
  • Goldman Sachs this week lowered its forecast for annual U.S. economic growth, citing “higher oil prices,” and said there is a risk the United States will enter a recession in the next year.

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Oil Prices Jump Again. Better Keep Your Tanks Full

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Oil jumps to highest since 2011 as OPEC holds output steady despite Russia’s war on Ukraine
  • U.S. oil climbed to the highest level in more than a decade in Wednesday trade, with global benchmark Brent topping $113 per barrel after OPEC and its oil-producing allies, which includes Russia, decided to hold production steady.
  • West Texas Intermediate crude futures, the U.S. oil benchmark, jumped more than 8% to trade at $112.51 per barrel, the highest level since May 2011.
  • “Brent crude could surge to the $120 level if the oil market starts to think it is likely that sanctions will be placed on Russian energy.”

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As tensions rise with Ukraine and Russia expect gas prices to go up

Rev 6:6 NAS And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, “A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; and do not damage the oil and the wine.”

Important Takeaways:

  • Here comes $7 gas prices, warns oil strategist in dire outlook
  • Drivers best start bracing for another surge in gas prices amid the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and years of under-investment by the oil industry, warns one veteran energy strategist.
  • Energy Word founder Dan Dicker said on Yahoo Finance Live.
  • “My guess is that you are going to see $5 a gallon at any triple-digit [oil prices] … as soon as you get to $100. And you might get to $6.50 or $7.
  • Dicker said oil prices could shoot higher to $150 a barrel, or in line to the “super spike” highs from 2007.
  • WTI crude oil has climbed 13% in the past month to $94 a barrel. Russia produces 10 million barrels of oil a day, the equivalent of 10% of global demand. Any loss of that oil due to geopolitical issues could cause a tightly supplied market to become tighter, pushing prices for the hydrocarbon up.

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German regulator puts brake on Nord Stream 2 in fresh blow to gas pipeline

By Vera Eckert

FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Germany’s energy regulator has suspended the approval process for a major new pipeline bringing Russian gas into Europe, throwing up a new roadblock to the contentious project and driving up regional gas prices.

The watchdog said on Tuesday it had temporarily halted the certification process because the Swiss-based consortium behind Nord Stream 2 first needed to form a German subsidiary company under German law to secure an operating license.

European prices jumped almost 11% on news of the hold-up, with the Dutch front-month contract hitting 90.40 euros/MWh in afternoon trade.

“This does push back expected timelines quite a bit,” said analyst Trevor Sikorski at Energy Aspects, adding that it was unclear how long the process of establishing a new company and reapplying for certification would take.

First flows through the pipeline look very unlikely in the first half of 2022, he added.

Nord Stream 2 has faced stiff opposition from the United States and some European states, which say it will make Europe too reliant on Russian gas. But other European governments say the link is vital to secure energy supplies, with gas prices surging in recent weeks and the threat of power outages looming this winter.

Nord Stream 2 said it had been notified by the regulator about the certification decision. “We are not in a position to comment on the details of the procedure, its possible duration and impacts on the timing of the start of the pipeline operations,” it added.

The Kremlin was not immediately available to comment.

“Any delays in the pipeline certification, all the more so on the eve of winter, is not in the interests of the European Union, that’s without any doubt,” Konstantin Kosachyov, deputy chairman of Russian parliament’s upper house, told TASS news agency.

The regulator, the Bundesnetzagentur, said it would only assess an application after a transfer of major assets and budgets for staffing to a German subsidiary.

“A certification for the operation of Nord Stream 2 will only be considered once the operator is organized in a legal shape compliant with German law,” it said.

Once these preconditions had been met, it said it could continue assessing the submission in the rest of the four-month application period. Before the suspension, that period was meant to run until early January.

Lawyers said the move, viewed by some gas market traders as politically charged, made sense from a regulatory perspective because it meant the pipeline’s operators in Germany would be answerable to local rules.

Essen-based law firm Rosin Buedenbender said a number of limited liability company options were available.

UKRAINIAN OPPOSITION

Ukraine is one country bitterly opposed to the pipeline, which has fed into broader tensions between Kyiv and Moscow at a time when the United States has accused Russia of building up troops near Ukraine in preparation for a possible attack, an allegation the Kremlin has dismissed.

Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014 and Moscow-backed separatists took control of the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine that same year.

The head of the Ukrainian energy firm Naftogaz told Reuters that he welcomed the German energy regulator’s decision.

“Good,” Yuriy Vitrenko said. “This is an important point, which suggests that the German regulator shares our position that certification cannot only apply to the pipeline in Germany, but should apply to the entire pipeline from the territory of the Russian Federation to the territory of Germany.”

Kyiv will lose revenues if gas from Russia bypasses it and it accuses Moscow of using energy as a weapon to threaten Europe’s security.

Moscow has denied this and says Nord Stream 2 is a purely commercial venture that complies with European energy rules.

Ukraine has successfully applied to be part of the consultation process to certify the pipeline.

Moscow has already used a route under the Baltic Sea for Nord Stream 1 – the predecessor to Nord Stream 2 – which has a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters (bcm), equivalent to half Germany’s annual gas usage.

Nord Stream 2 will double that and make Germany a central arrival hub for European gas volumes for onward distribution.

The Berlin economy ministry and the European Commission have been made aware of its notice to Nord Stream 2.

The Commission has two months after the German regulator’s decision to assess the application for its part.

“Under the current circumstances there is further downside for the timing of the start-up of Nord Stream 2 because even though Germany is more friendly towards this project than EU, the pipeline’s regulatory certification could face even more hurdles during the EU commission review stage,” said Carlos Torres Diaz, head of gas and power markets at Rystad Energy.

(Reporting by Vera Eckert Additional reporting by Vladimir Soldatkin, Pavel Polityuk, Nora Buli and Susanna Twidale; Writing by Pravin Char; Editing by Miranda Murray, Edmund Blair and Mark Potter)

Analysis: From chips to ships, shortages are making inflation stick

By Dhara Ranasinghe and Sujata Rao

LONDON (Reuters) – Soaring gas prices, staff shortages, a lack of ships — price pressures globally may be picking up faster than anticipated, challenging the view that inflation will prove transitory.

Central bankers, while adamant inflation will subside, are starting to concede it may stay higher for longer as a range of issues push up the prices of goods and services and lift future inflation expectations.

Their conclusions will ultimately determine how quickly policymakers unwind the trillions of dollars of monetary stimulus unleashed to ease the COVID-19 crisis.

“Will central bankers be more focused on growth and be a “bit behind the curve”? Or will they be more concerned about inflation and take the punchbowl away quickly?,” said Charles Diebel, head of fixed income at asset manager Mediolanum International Funds.

Here are five key elements in the inflation debate:

1/ GASFLATION

European and U.S. gas prices have soared more than 350% and more than 120% respectively this year. Oil is up around 50% and Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to hit $90 a barrel by end-2021 from around $80 currently.

Gas and electricity make up 4.8% of the euro area harmonized-inflation (HICP) basket used by the European Central Bank. Rabobank reckons the price surge is a separate ‘shock’ that could add 0.15 percentage points (ppts) to its 2.2% euro zone inflation forecast for 2021 and another 0.25 ppts to 2022’s 1.8% projection.

Many economists see higher gas prices as here to stay, due to slowing U.S. output, rising costs of carbon emissions permits for polluters and curbs on the usage of dirtier fuels.

In China, where factory inflation hit 9.5% in August, power cuts have slashed output of goods from cement to aluminum.

These outages are a risk to end-users such as those in auto supply chains, Morgan Stanley said, noting “cost-push inflation and tightening upstream supply that could affect downstream production and profits.”

2/ CHIPFLATION

Semiconductors, or chips as they are known, are tiny but are having an outsized impact on global factories. At General Motors alone, chip shortages are seen cutting Q3 vehicle deliveries by 200,000, while falling output has sent used-car prices spiraling.

Chip prices have risen and semiconductor giant Taiwan’s TSMC is mulling further hikes of up to 20%. That will ripple across everything from electronics to cars and phones to washing machines. But chipmakers themselves face higher input costs from commodities to power.

“It does seem likely that these semiconductor shortages are going to persist into next year,” said Jack Allen-Reynolds, senior European economist at Capital Economics.

Or beyond. Intel’s CEO predicts chips will comprise a fifth of a car’s cost by 2030, from 4% in 2019 as vehicles become self-driving or electric.

3/ FOODFLATION

Global food prices rose 30% year-on-year in August, an index compiled by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization shows — a sign of broadening price pressures.

While higher agricultural commodity prices are behind the jump, JPMorgan analysts also attribute food price inflation to pandemic-related pressures such as logistics disruptions and transport costs.

In emerging markets, where food makes up a large chunk of inflation baskets, there is more pressure to tighten monetary policy. It is less of a problem for developed nations but price rises look inevitable for items such as soft drinks and snacks.

4/GREENFLATION

Stringent rules to guide the transition to a greener future are blamed for stoking ‘greenflation,’ for instance by shutting out polluting factories, vehicles, ships and mines, in turn reducing the supply of key goods and services.

Prices for European carbon emission allowances, have doubled this year to 65 euros a tonne. A price of 100 euros would lift European retail power prices 12%, adding 35 bps to headline euro zone inflation, Morgan Stanley estimated in June.

There are other examples. Falling ship orders due to upcoming rule changes on fuels may be a tailwind for shipping rates that have already surged 280% this year.

NatWest attributes the commodity rally at least partly to the shift to greener technologies raising mining and production costs.

All this may not fully have seeped into inflation calculations. For instance, markets see euro area inflation hitting 2% only after a decade, Danske Bank sees “upside risks to inflation expectations…once implementation of the green transition gathers momentum”.

5/ WAGEFLATION

As prices rise, so do expectations of future inflation among consumers, who accordingly demand pay hikes.

The carbon emission allowances picture is mixed. U.S average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% in August and U.S. five-year inflation expectations are running around 3%, surveys show.

In some UK sectors, earnings have risen as much as 30% this year. Euro area labor costs fell in Q2 but inflation as well as inflation expectations are rising.

“Maybe markets are a little bit extreme in their pricing, but I’m not recommending investors should fade that move,” Societe Generale senior rates strategist Jorge Garayo said.

“When we go into next year, that will be the big test.”

(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe and Sujata Rao; Additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo ; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

U.S. producer prices post biggest rise in five months

FILE PHOTO: A customer shops for a turkey at a Walmart store in Chicago, Illinois, U.S., November 20, 2018. REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski/File Photo

WASHINGTON, (Reuters) – U.S. producer prices increased by the most in five months in March, but underlying wholesale inflation was tame.

The Labor Department said on Thursday its producer price index for final demand rose 0.6 percent last month, lifted by a surge in the cost of gasoline. That was the largest increase since last October and followed a 0.1 percent gain in February.

In the 12 months through March, the PPI rose 2.2 percent after advancing 1.9 percent in February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI would climb 0.3 percent in March and increase 1.9 percent on a year-on-year basis.

A key gauge of underlying producer price pressures that excludes food, energy and trade services was unchanged last month after ticking up 0.1 percent in February. The so-called core PPI increased 2.0 percent in the 12 months through March. That was the smallest annual increase since August 2017 and followed a 2.3 percent rise in February..

Data on Wednesday showed consumer prices rose by the most in 14 months in March, driven by more expensive gasoline. But core inflation remained muted amid a plunge in the cost of apparel.

Slowing domestic and global growth are keeping inflation contained. Wage inflation has also been moderate despite a tight labor market.

Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March 19-20 policy meeting published on Wednesday described inflation as “muted,” though officials expected it to rise to or near the U.S. central bank’s 2 percent target. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is currently at 1.8 percent.

Last month, wholesale energy prices jumped 5.6 percent, with gasoline prices shooting up 16.0 percent, the most since August 2009. Energy prices rose 1.8 percent in February.

Gasoline accounted for over 60 percent of the 1.0 percent rise in goods prices last month. Goods prices increased 0.4 percent in February.

Wholesale food prices rose 0.3 percent in March, reversing a 0.3 percent drop in the prior month. Core goods prices rose 0.2 percent after edging up 0.1 percent in February.

The cost of services increased 0.3 percent in March after being unchanged in the prior month. Prices for healthcare services fell 0.2 percent last month. There was a sharp drop in the cost of hospital outpatient services. Those healthcare costs feed into the core PCE price index.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani Editing by Paul Simao) ((Lucia.Mutikani@thomsonreuters.com; 1 202 898 8315; Reuters Messaging: lucia.mutikani.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net)

Zimbabwe to charge activist pastor with subverting the government

Zimbabwean activist pastor Evan Mawarire is escorted by detectives as he arrives at the Harare Magistrates courts in Harare, Zimbabwe, January 17, 2019. REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo

By MacDonald Dzirutwe

HARARE (Reuters) – Zimbabwean activist pastor Evan Mawarire appeared in court on Thursday to be charged with subverting the government, punishable by up to 20 years in jail, after protests this week in which three people were killed and dozens injured.

Mawarire was arrested on Wednesday and initially charged by police with the lesser crime of inciting public violence after he posted on social media encouraging Zimbabweans to heed a strike call by the biggest labor union.

On entering the courthouse, he told reporters: “None of what I am accused of is what I have done at all. If we have true justice in this country, let’s see it at play. I am very upset.”

The Harare pastor rose to prominence as a critic of former strongman Robert Mugabe and led a national protest shutdown in 2016. He was tried on similar charges in 2017 but was acquitted by the High Court for lack of evidence.

President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s government decreed a 150 percent hike in fuel prices last weekend, which triggered the three-day strike, during which protesters barricaded roads with rocks and burnt tires in the capital Harare. In the second city of Bulawayo, shops were looted.

Police rounded up 600 people, including Mawarire and an opposition legislator, in a crackdown on protesters. A doctors’ group said they had treated 68 people for gunshot wounds.

The Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights, whose lawyers are representing Mawarire and more than 130 others, said police had decided to upgrade the charges against Mawarire.

FAMILIAR WAYS

Mnangagwa promised to repair the struggling economy after replacing long-time leader Mugabe in an election following a coup in November 2017, Zimbabwe has fallen back into familiar ways.

While some businesses reopened on Thursday after the strike, new data showed that inflation had soared to a 10-year high of 42 percent in December, even before the fuel price increase.

As dollar shortages batter the economy, rocketing inflation is destroying the value of citizens’ savings.

The Zimbabwe Association of Doctors for Human Rights (ZADHR) said its members had treated 172 people, some with dog bites, in private and public hospitals since Monday, when the protests started.

“There are cases of patients who had chest trauma and fractured limbs who were forcibly taken from the hospital to attend court despite the advice of doctors,” ZAHDR said in a statement.

Of the 68 people treated for gunshot wounds, 17 underwent emergency surgery.

On Thursday, there were still long queues at the few filling stations selling fuel, sometimes under the watchful eye of soldiers.

The few shops that were open were packed with people buying basics such as sugar, flour and bread.

Media platforms including Whatsapp, Facebook and Twitter remained blocked because of a government order, leading to accusations from opposition figures that it wanted to prevent images of heavy-handed police tactics being broadcast around the world.

(Editing by James Macharia and Kevin Liffey)