Important Takeaways:
- China on October 22 conducted live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
- The bellicose move follows a 13-hour simulated blockade of Taiwan on October 14 and 15. The People’s Liberation Army, in the Joint Sword-2024B exercises, employed a record 153 planes as well 26 ships, including the Liaoning, one of the country’s three aircraft carriers.
- The Chinese Coast Guard participated in the massive drill as well, carrying out, as the Economist noted, an “unprecedented” patrol around the main Taiwan island.
- The drill, according to the Chinese Coast Guard, was a “practical action to control Taiwan island in accordance with the law based on the one-China principle.”
- Beijing maintains that the island has been an “inalienable” part of China since time immemorial. The People’s Republic has never exercised control over Taiwan. In fact, no Chinese regime has ever held indisputable sovereignty to it. Chiang Kai-shek, the first Chinese ruler to exercise control of the whole island, arrived in 1949.
- A quarantine is a cunning maneuver at a time that China is not prepared for a full-scale war and is not ready to start hostilities by launching an invasion of Taiwan’s main island.
- Not prepared? Xi Jinping does not trust the Chinese military, a war on Taiwan would be extremely unpopular with the Chinese people, and the Chinese regime is extremely casualty averse.
- Xi, therefore, is trying to intimidate everyone else into submission.
- “The real target is the United States.” … They were “practicing ways to ambush the U.S. Navy if it heads towards an already held-hostage Taiwan.” — Chang Ching of the R.O.C. Society for Strategic Studies.
- Xi’s implied threats to use these weapons are particularly ominous. We have to ask ourselves: When in history has a militant regime engaged in belligerent acts and constantly threatened to go to war but did not actually do so?
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Important Takeaways:
- “Xi said the military should ‘comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war, (and) ensure troops have solid combat capabilities,’ CCTV reported,” according to the AFP and reported on Barrons Saturday.
- The drills were accompanied by China declaring the possibility of invading and taking over Taiwan.
- “China’s communist leaders have insisted they will not rule out using force to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control,” Barrons said on Saturday.
- Days after the Sino naval drills around Taiwan, the Chinese military criticized the U.S. and Canada for sending warships through the Taiwan Strait as the two power blocks exercise show-of-force operations in the region.
- The recent directive by Jinping builds upon a similar order he dictated in 2023, a call for stronger military combat readiness, as well as echoes the ruler’s directives in 2018 to prepare for war.
- The recent war escalation with China follows escalations with Ukraine and Russia and Israel and Iran.
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Important Takeaways:
- China insisted on Monday it would never renounce the “use of force” to take control of Taiwan, after ending a day of military drills around the self-ruled island that Beijing said was a “stern warning” to “separatist” forces.
- Beijing, which claims Taiwan as part of its own territory, deployed fighter jets, drones, warships and coast guard vessels to encircle the island in its fourth round of large-scale war games in just over two years.
- The United States said China’s actions were “unwarranted” and risked “escalation” as it called on Beijing to act with restraint.
- China declared the drills over at around 6:00 pm (1000 GMT), about 13 hours after they had begun.
- “We sincerely strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force and will not leave any space for ‘Taiwan independence'” Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Wu Qian said soon after.
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Important Takeaways:
- The country’s adversaries are stepping up efforts to influence the U.S. election, including down-ballot races, intelligence officials told the press on Monday.
- Officials said China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba have sought to “launder their narratives” into election discourse, as well as aggravate divisions among Americans through hot-button issues such as immigration.
- Though four weeks remain before Election Day, more than 16 million Americans had requested mail-in ballots or opted for early in-person voting as of Tuesday, according to an NBC News poll sourced from state officials and market research firm TargetSmart.
- One official said agencies have been privately briefing candidates for president, congress and local elections about foreign influence efforts.
- More of these notifications have already been carried out than during any past election, according to another official, who said suspected cases of foreign influence campaigns against public officials have seen a “more than threefold increase.”
- China-linked actors were said to have directly interfered in “tens” of down-ballot races, particularly when it comes to issues that most concern the Chinese Communist Party, Reuters reported.
- Russia and Iran have been focused on shaping the views of the U.S. electorate,” the intelligence officials said.
- Moscow’s efforts have reportedly been to drive down support for Ukraine, which is struggling against invading Russian forces in the eastern part of the country. Iran has been covertly seeking to drum up support for Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris, according to officials.
- They believe Cuba has concentrated on giving a boost to its preferred candidates by swaying Spanish-speaking voters on social media.
- The news follows a report released last month by social network analysis firm Graphika that detailed a Chinese “spamouflage” operation attempting to sow division in U.S. social media spaces through fake accounts.
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Important Takeaways:
- At a state banquet celebrating the founding of the People’s Republic on Monday, Xi used his address to underscore his resolve to achieve the “complete reunification of the motherland.”
- “It’s an irreversible trend, a cause of righteousness and the common aspiration of the people. No one can stop the march of history”
- Successive Chinese leaders have vowed to one day take control of Taiwan, but Xi, China’s most assertive leader in decades, has ramped up rhetoric and aggression against the democratic island – fueling tension across the strait and raising concerns for a military confrontation.
- Taiwan officials say Beijing has intensified military activities around the island in recent months, including drills in May that the Chinese military said were designed to test its ability to “seize power” over the island.
- The issue of Taiwan has become a major point of contention between China and the US, which maintains close but informal relations with Taipei and is bound by law to supply the island with weapons to defend itself.
- On Sunday, US President Joe Biden approved an additional $567 million in military support for Taiwan in the largest aid package America has granted the island.
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Important Takeaways:
- China’s efforts to achieve maritime military parity with the US have suffered a serious blow after its newest state-of-the-art nuclear submarine sank in a dock, American officials have confirmed.
- The incident happened last May or June at the Wuchang shipyard near Wuhan and came to light, thanks to satellite imagery, despite efforts by the country’s communist authorities to stage a cover-up.
- It is not known if there were any casualties – or if the submarine had any nuclear fuel onboard at the time
- American officials say they have no indication that Chinese authorities have checked the water or nearby environment for radiation.
- There has been no acknowledgment of the incident from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
- “Can you imagine a US nuclear submarine sinking in San Diego and the government hushes it up and doesn’t tell anybody about it? I mean, holy cow!” Shugart said.
- A Chinese embassy spokesperson in Washington said they had no information to provide. “We are not familiar with the situation you mentioned and currently have no information to provide”
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Important Takeaways:
- China said Wednesday that it had successfully test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean, in a rare public test that may raise international concerns as the country builds up its nuclear arsenal at a time of tensions with the United States.
- The Chinese defense ministry said the test was a routine part of the Rocket Force’s annual military training.
- But analysts said this was the first time China had launched an ICBM into international waters since 1980.
- China’s description of the test as routine and annual “seems odd,” Panda said, “given that they don’t do this sort thing either routinely or annually.”
- The Japanese government’s top spokesperson, Yoshimasa Hayashi, said China was rapidly expanding its nuclear and missile arsenal and increasing its defense expenditures without sufficient transparency.
- “These developments in China’s military activities, combined with their lack of transparency, have become a matter of serious concern for Japan and for the international community,” he said.
- ICBMs typically have a range of more than 3,400 miles and are designed to carry nuclear warheads. Analysts say China usually tests long-range missiles over its own land.
- China suspended nuclear arms talks with the U.S. in July to protest U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.
- China’s test on Wednesday comes amid heightened military activity in the Asia-Pacific region, where nuclear-armed North Korea has accelerated its weapons testing since 2022. Last week, North Korea fired several short-range ballistic missiles toward the sea for the second time this month.
- North Korea says its weapons tests are in response to intensifying joint military exercises among the U.S., South Korea and others that it sees as a rehearsal for invasion.
- The U.S. also deployed an advanced missile system in the Philippines earlier this year that China sees as a threat.
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Important Takeaways:
- China recently launched a not-so-secret submarine to spy on the US, and now they’ve launched cloud-seeding missiles to help combat a heatwave.
- The human intervention into the persistent dry weather resulted in gusts of 76mph blasting residents’ laundry from their balconies in what has been humorously referred to as “the 9/2 Chongqing underwear crisis,” reports Daily Star.
- Zhang Yixuan, the deputy director of the Chongqing Weather Modification Office, insisted that the wind was a natural occurrence and not a result of the cloud seeding.
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Important Takeaways:
- The head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific command, in the first direct communications in years with a senior Chinese general in charge of regional forces, warned Beijing was engaged in “dangerous” incidents in the South China Sea, U.S. officials said Tuesday.
- Sam Paparo held the video teleconference with Gen. Wu Yanan, commander of the People’s Liberation Army southern command, on Monday and urged his forces to abide by international law in the South China Sea. China has made expansive sovereignty claims to the strategic waterway that are rejected by the U.S. and smaller countries around the region.
- Monday’s meeting was the first time in more than two years that a regional PLA commander spoke to a commander of the Hawaii-based command, despite repeated efforts to resume direct communications the American side believes will reduce tensions.
- The Pentagon, under Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, has been pressing the command to resume regular talks with Chinese regional military leaders to “clarify intent” and reduce the risk of a U.S.-China military exchange. The talks between the two commanders were described as “constructive and respectful.”
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Important Takeaways:
- China is communist North Korea’s closest ally, but has refrained from major displays of support towards the Kim regime in the past year, particularly after Pyongyang published an excoriating screed against Beijing in May for backing a statement vaguely supporting the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. North Korean diplomacy has since trended towards Russia, signing a mutual defense treaty with Moscow in July during strongman Vladimir Putin’s first visit to North Korea in decades.
- China and North Korea nonetheless rely on each other significantly for ideological and economic support. Xi’s message hoping to “strengthen communication” with Kim arrives as North Korea escalates belligerent behavior against South Korea, flooding the country with a wave of trash-filled balloons over the weekend. China, in turn, faces growing economic challenges and resistance to its geopolitical agenda from the West.
- The South Korean news agency Yonhap described Beijing and Pyongyang as “relatively estranged” in the context of the founding anniversary message and the upcoming anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries. South Korean sources have reportedly not seen any indication that the two countries will plan any “grand celebrations” together to mark the occasion.
- While still close allies, North Korea and China have kept a diplomatic distance this year compared to those prior, which appeared to expand following China participating in a summit in Seoul alongside the governments of that country and Japan in May. The trilateral summit, the ninth of its kind in modern history, united the conservative governments of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio with the Communist Party and resulted in a joint statement that outraged North Korea.
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