Important Takeaways:
- China Weaponizes Supply Chain, Sends America’s Largest Drone Maker Into Crisis
- America’s largest drone company and supplier of unmanned aircraft to the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been thrown into a supply chain crisis after Beijing imposed sanctions, barring it from sourcing drone parts from Chinese suppliers, according to a new Financial Times report. This is another wake-up call for American companies heavily reliant on China, highlighting the urgent need to ‘friend-shore’ or ‘reshore’ critical supply chains away from the world’s second-largest economy.
- Sources familiar with the situation told FT that Beijing imposed sanctions on Skydio to prevent it from sourcing battery components from Chinese firms.
- On Wednesday, Skydio said the sanctions by China were “for selling drones to Taiwan, where our only customer today is the National Fire Agency.”
- Skydio CEO Adam Bry met with US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and senior White House officials last week to discuss the dire situation as the Chinese paralyzed part of the drone company’s supply chain.
- Bry continued, “This is an attempt to eliminate the leading American drone company and deepen the world’s dependence on Chinese drone suppliers.”
- China initially unveiled the sanctions on October 11 as retaliation for Washington’s move to sell attack drones to Taiwan. The FT noted that the company recently secured a contract with Taiwan’s fire agency.
- FT sources did not mention which of Skydio’s Chinese suppliers were affected by the sanctions.
- Using public trade data compiled by counterparty and supply chain risk intelligence firm Sayari, about 94.44% of Skydio’s drone component shipments came from Vietnam, 4.9% from Hong Kong, and .65% from China.
- One official told FT, “We suspect Skydio was targeted by Beijing because it is likely seen as a competitor to DJI,” adding, “If there is a silver lining, we can use this episode to accelerate our work to diversify drone supply chains away from . . . China.”
- It seems like a tit-for-tat-sanction war between America and the Chinese to weaken each other drone-manufacturing capabilities.
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Important Takeaways:
- Russia has been on a roll: the 2008 invasion of Georgia, the seizure of Crimea in 2014 and the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine surprised an overconfident Vladimir Putin, yet the war continues, with Russian casualties exceeding 500,000.
- From the time Russia invaded Ukraine, Mr. Putin has threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons. He recently announced a new nuclear doctrine: Aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear one, should be considered a joint attack.
- [meanwhile] China is building more missile silos: 120 in Gansu province and about 110 in Xinjiang province. China’s Rocket Force, established by President Xi Jinping, receives significant resources for the nuclear modernization program. China is not a member of New START and continues to refuse to discuss its nuclear program with the U.S.
- China continues to encircle and threaten Taiwan and claim sovereignty over the South China Sea despite a 2016 U.N. Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling in favor of the Philippines that said China’s actions were unlawful. China continues to ignore the ruling.
- North Korea has about 50 nuclear weapons and enough fissile material to produce seven nuclear weapons per year. It also has a chemical and biological program, and in 2002, it was the only country that withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
- Since the failure of the February 2019 Hanoi Summit, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been in a race to build more nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to launch them as far as the U.S. with the Hwasong-17, a road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple reentry vehicles, with a range of 15,000 kilometers (over 9,320 miles), capable of reaching the entire U.S.
- Iran is in a category by itself.
- Iran enriches uranium to 60%, enabling it to produce weapons-grade uranium in a few weeks. The International Atomic Energy Agency monitors Iran’s nuclear-related activities and has expressed concern about not getting the access its monitors require to certify that Iran is in compliance with IAEA safeguards.
- Moreover, Iran’s ballistic missile program is impressive — 12 types of medium-range and short-range ballistic missiles. It is only a matter of time before Iran has ICBMs capable of targeting Europe and the U.S. This is in addition to its support of its proxies Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran’s goal: to annihilate Israel.
- This is the axis of authoritarian states. The nations’ goal is to change the world order.
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Important Takeaways:
- China is expanding the number of road-mobile DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles that Beijing has called the “Guam killer” for its ability to attack American forces on the Pacific Island, according to a Defense Intelligence Agency report on foreign nuclear threats.
- Chinese officials said the U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty between the United States and Russia in 2019 has hurt strategic stability between the world’s top nuclear powers. In response, China has “fielded thousands of weapon systems, including the DF-26, that would be covered by the treaty if China were to participate,” the report said.
- Actual numbers of single-warhead DF-26s were not included in the report. Private defense analysts estimate there are 250 launchers along with additional reload missiles.
- The missile is also said to be capable of attacking U.S. aircraft carriers at sea.
- The DIA said in 2020 China’s total warhead arsenal was estimated to be in the “low 200s,”… It now has more than 500 warheads and is on track to have over 1,000 warheads by 2030. The warheads will be deployed on missiles and bombers capable of reaching the United States, the report said.
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Important Takeaways:
- China is expected to double its nuclear arsenal to 1,000 warheads over the next five years, according to a new Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report.
- In 2020, the DIA assessed China had acquired 200 nuclear warheads and would double that by the end of the decade. Now, the intelligence agency says China has already reached 500 warheads and will have more than 1,000 by 2030.
- “China is undergoing the most rapid expansion and ambitious modernization of its nuclear forces in history,” the report said, while noting China’s capabilities are still far behind that of the U.S. or Russia.
- At the same time, China carried out another “combat control” near the island over the weekend as Beijing threatens countermeasures for the U.S.’ $2 billion arms deal with Taiwan.
- The Pentagon has lately been grappling with how to prepare for 2027 – the point at which Chinese leaders have told their military they should have the capability to invade Taiwan.
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Important Takeaways:
- China on October 22 conducted live-fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait.
- The bellicose move follows a 13-hour simulated blockade of Taiwan on October 14 and 15. The People’s Liberation Army, in the Joint Sword-2024B exercises, employed a record 153 planes as well 26 ships, including the Liaoning, one of the country’s three aircraft carriers.
- The Chinese Coast Guard participated in the massive drill as well, carrying out, as the Economist noted, an “unprecedented” patrol around the main Taiwan island.
- The drill, according to the Chinese Coast Guard, was a “practical action to control Taiwan island in accordance with the law based on the one-China principle.”
- Beijing maintains that the island has been an “inalienable” part of China since time immemorial. The People’s Republic has never exercised control over Taiwan. In fact, no Chinese regime has ever held indisputable sovereignty to it. Chiang Kai-shek, the first Chinese ruler to exercise control of the whole island, arrived in 1949.
- A quarantine is a cunning maneuver at a time that China is not prepared for a full-scale war and is not ready to start hostilities by launching an invasion of Taiwan’s main island.
- Not prepared? Xi Jinping does not trust the Chinese military, a war on Taiwan would be extremely unpopular with the Chinese people, and the Chinese regime is extremely casualty averse.
- Xi, therefore, is trying to intimidate everyone else into submission.
- “The real target is the United States.” … They were “practicing ways to ambush the U.S. Navy if it heads towards an already held-hostage Taiwan.” — Chang Ching of the R.O.C. Society for Strategic Studies.
- Xi’s implied threats to use these weapons are particularly ominous. We have to ask ourselves: When in history has a militant regime engaged in belligerent acts and constantly threatened to go to war but did not actually do so?
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Important Takeaways:
- “Xi said the military should ‘comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war, (and) ensure troops have solid combat capabilities,’ CCTV reported,” according to the AFP and reported on Barrons Saturday.
- The drills were accompanied by China declaring the possibility of invading and taking over Taiwan.
- “China’s communist leaders have insisted they will not rule out using force to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s control,” Barrons said on Saturday.
- Days after the Sino naval drills around Taiwan, the Chinese military criticized the U.S. and Canada for sending warships through the Taiwan Strait as the two power blocks exercise show-of-force operations in the region.
- The recent directive by Jinping builds upon a similar order he dictated in 2023, a call for stronger military combat readiness, as well as echoes the ruler’s directives in 2018 to prepare for war.
- The recent war escalation with China follows escalations with Ukraine and Russia and Israel and Iran.
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Important Takeaways:
- China insisted on Monday it would never renounce the “use of force” to take control of Taiwan, after ending a day of military drills around the self-ruled island that Beijing said was a “stern warning” to “separatist” forces.
- Beijing, which claims Taiwan as part of its own territory, deployed fighter jets, drones, warships and coast guard vessels to encircle the island in its fourth round of large-scale war games in just over two years.
- The United States said China’s actions were “unwarranted” and risked “escalation” as it called on Beijing to act with restraint.
- China declared the drills over at around 6:00 pm (1000 GMT), about 13 hours after they had begun.
- “We sincerely strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force and will not leave any space for ‘Taiwan independence'” Ministry of National Defense spokesperson Wu Qian said soon after.
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Important Takeaways:
- The country’s adversaries are stepping up efforts to influence the U.S. election, including down-ballot races, intelligence officials told the press on Monday.
- Officials said China, Russia, Iran, and Cuba have sought to “launder their narratives” into election discourse, as well as aggravate divisions among Americans through hot-button issues such as immigration.
- Though four weeks remain before Election Day, more than 16 million Americans had requested mail-in ballots or opted for early in-person voting as of Tuesday, according to an NBC News poll sourced from state officials and market research firm TargetSmart.
- One official said agencies have been privately briefing candidates for president, congress and local elections about foreign influence efforts.
- More of these notifications have already been carried out than during any past election, according to another official, who said suspected cases of foreign influence campaigns against public officials have seen a “more than threefold increase.”
- China-linked actors were said to have directly interfered in “tens” of down-ballot races, particularly when it comes to issues that most concern the Chinese Communist Party, Reuters reported.
- Russia and Iran have been focused on shaping the views of the U.S. electorate,” the intelligence officials said.
- Moscow’s efforts have reportedly been to drive down support for Ukraine, which is struggling against invading Russian forces in the eastern part of the country. Iran has been covertly seeking to drum up support for Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris, according to officials.
- They believe Cuba has concentrated on giving a boost to its preferred candidates by swaying Spanish-speaking voters on social media.
- The news follows a report released last month by social network analysis firm Graphika that detailed a Chinese “spamouflage” operation attempting to sow division in U.S. social media spaces through fake accounts.
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Important Takeaways:
- At a state banquet celebrating the founding of the People’s Republic on Monday, Xi used his address to underscore his resolve to achieve the “complete reunification of the motherland.”
- “It’s an irreversible trend, a cause of righteousness and the common aspiration of the people. No one can stop the march of history”
- Successive Chinese leaders have vowed to one day take control of Taiwan, but Xi, China’s most assertive leader in decades, has ramped up rhetoric and aggression against the democratic island – fueling tension across the strait and raising concerns for a military confrontation.
- Taiwan officials say Beijing has intensified military activities around the island in recent months, including drills in May that the Chinese military said were designed to test its ability to “seize power” over the island.
- The issue of Taiwan has become a major point of contention between China and the US, which maintains close but informal relations with Taipei and is bound by law to supply the island with weapons to defend itself.
- On Sunday, US President Joe Biden approved an additional $567 million in military support for Taiwan in the largest aid package America has granted the island.
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Important Takeaways:
- China’s efforts to achieve maritime military parity with the US have suffered a serious blow after its newest state-of-the-art nuclear submarine sank in a dock, American officials have confirmed.
- The incident happened last May or June at the Wuchang shipyard near Wuhan and came to light, thanks to satellite imagery, despite efforts by the country’s communist authorities to stage a cover-up.
- It is not known if there were any casualties – or if the submarine had any nuclear fuel onboard at the time
- American officials say they have no indication that Chinese authorities have checked the water or nearby environment for radiation.
- There has been no acknowledgment of the incident from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
- “Can you imagine a US nuclear submarine sinking in San Diego and the government hushes it up and doesn’t tell anybody about it? I mean, holy cow!” Shugart said.
- A Chinese embassy spokesperson in Washington said they had no information to provide. “We are not familiar with the situation you mentioned and currently have no information to provide”
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