Important Takeaways:

• How 2023 has been the ‘year of the brink’ and 2024 could be worse
• It could have been immeasurably worse. But holding back from the brink in 2023 has simply deferred vast crises to 2024. The post-Covid world is exhausted, cash-strapped, but ultimately more fraught than for decades.
• Overshadowing it all will be a flagging hyperpower, at best distracted with presidential elections, at worst tearing itself apart in voting disputes and political extremism.
• The likelihood the United States will be occupied by its own traumas amplifies each risk. The geopolitical given of a US response will be absent, fueling authoritarian ambition, or a radical upending of the global order. 2024 could make 2023 seem rational and sober.

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