Important Takeaways:

• China is almost ready for its war with the West
• Admiral Paparo, Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, recently declared his intention to turn the Taiwan Strait “into an unmanned hellscape” in order to buy time in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The idea was to use “classified capabilities” – likely including surface vessel and long endurance UAVs – to make the lives of Chinese soldiers “utterly miserable for a month”.
• In the meantime, the concern is that while the US is developing combat capabilities in the region, China is building ships at a rapid clip. Paparo has previously noted that while the US is “not overmatched”, he does not “like the pace of the trajectory”.
• With Europe distracted by Russia’s war in Ukraine and American assets diverted by the turmoil in the Middle East, the Chinese Communist Party has perhaps its best ever chance for a successful war of conquest. Xi’s deadline of 2027 for the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to invade Taiwan is likely to fall in a period of geopolitical chaos elsewhere.
• Washington knows that it has spread itself increasingly thin, and that this cannot be sustained indefinitely. If it is divided between propping up European countries unprepared to financially commit to the security of their own continent and the Indo-Pacific when China’s preparations for war flip over to the real thing, then it is at serious risk of losing a great power war for the first time.

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