Tag Archives: U.S. Stocks

Dow takes plunge by 524 points

Important Takeaways:

  • Inflation driven Dow plunge is worst in 11 months
  • U.S. stocks tumbled in a broad sell-off after a hotter-than-expected inflation report may jeopardize the Federal Reserve’s plan to cut interest rates.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 524 points or 1.3%, trimming a deficit of over 700 points reached during the session. It was the worst trading day in 11 months.
  • The benchmark has erased almost half its gains for 2024 with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting 4.3%.

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U.S. services sector growth accelerates despite supply constraints

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A measure of U.S. services industry activity jumped to a record high in July, boosted by the shift in spending to services from goods, but businesses continued to pay higher prices for inputs because of supply constraints.

The Institute for Supply Management survey on Wednesday also showed a rebound in a gauge of services industry employment last month. That eased worries of a sharp slowdown in job growth, which had been stoked by the ADP Employment Report showing the smallest gain in private payrolls in five months in July.

The bounce back in the ISM services employment index followed a similar reading for the manufacturing sector. The economy is pushing ahead after fully recovering in the second quarter the sharp loss in output suffered during the very brief COVID-19 pandemic recession.

“For months, employers have struggled to find labor and employment numbers have been held down from the worker side rather than a lack of demand from companies,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial in New York. “These increases bode well for Friday’s employment report. ADP has not been very useful this year.”

The Institute for Supply Management said its non-manufacturing activity index raced to 64.1 last month, the highest reading since the series started in 2008, from 60.1 in June. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the services sector, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index climbing to 60.5.

All services industries reported growth, with anecdotes of pent-up demand as “companies begin to fully reopen and remote workers return to offices.”

Demand is rotating back to services as nearly half of the population has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, allowing people to travel, frequent restaurants, visit casinos and attend sporting events among services-related activities that were curbed early in the pandemic in favor of goods.

Government data last week showed spending on services accelerated sharply in the second quarter, helping to lift the level of gross domestic product above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019.

The ISM survey’s measure of new orders received by services businesses increased to a reading of 63.7 from 62.1 in June. Further gains are likely in the months ahead, with inventories lean and inventory sentiment among customers poor. Businesses depleted inventories at a rapid clip in the second quarter. Stocks at retailers are well below normal levels.

U.S. stocks were trading lower after a record close for the S&P 500 index. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were mixed.

PORTS CONGESTION

The strong demand is continuing to strain supply chains. The survey’s measure of supplier deliveries rose to 72.0 from a reading of 68.5 in June. A reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. Some businesses complained about the scarcity of appliances, laptops as well as rental cars. Others said heating, ventilation and air conditioning repairs also were impacted by longer than normal lead times for replacement units.

Wholesalers said congestion at the ports of Long Beach/Los Angeles and Seattle had increased lead time by 15 days. They were also facing additional delays at the Chicago rail yard.

With bottlenecks in the supply chain persisting, a measure of prices paid by services industries surged to 82.3, the highest reading in nearly 16 years, from 79.5 in June.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly stated that inflation will moderate as supply constraints abate.

Services industries hired more workers in July, though labor shortages lingered, especially in the accommodation and food services sector. A measure of services industry employment rebounded to a reading of 53.8 from 49.3 in June.

That offset the ADP report showing private payrolls rose by 330,000 jobs last month, less than half of the 695,000 that had been anticipated by a Reuters survey of economists.

The slowdown in hiring last month was across all business sizes and industries. Leisure and hospitality payrolls increased by 139,000 jobs, below the 330,000 average in the second quarter. Economists said this suggested the early terminations of benefits in at least 20 states led by Republican governors was not forcing low-wage earners to return to work.

Factories added only 8,000 jobs in July. A global shortage of semiconductors is hampering production in the automobile sector. Hiring at construction sites stalled as expensive lumber and scarce building materials constrain homebuilding.

The ADP report, which is jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics, was published ahead of the government’s more comprehensive, and closely watched employment report for July on Friday. It, however, has a poor record predicting the private payrolls count in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) employment report because of methodology differences.

According to a Reuters survey of economists, private payrolls likely increased by 750,000 jobs in July after rising 662,000 in June. With government employment expected to have increased by about 130,000, thanks to education-related hiring, that would lead to overall payrolls advancing by 880,000 jobs in July. The economy created 850,000 jobs in June.

July’s nonfarm payrolls estimate is highly uncertain, with labor market indicators mixed. Data from Homebase, a payroll scheduling and tracking company, showed its employees working index rising moderately in July compared to June.

The Conference Board’s labor market differential, derived from data on consumers’ views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, in July hit its highest level since 2000.

Education payrolls typically fall by at least 1 million in July, before adjusting for seasonal fluctuations, as schools and universities close for summer.

This year, however, many students are in summer school catching up after disruptions caused by the pandemic. Economists anticipate a small decline in education employment, which would boost the seasonally adjusted payrolls for the sector.

“We are maintaining our forecast for the BLS report to show 900,000 jobs added in July, with 550,000 coming from the private sector,” said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.

(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Coronavirus causes historic market drop, global scramble to contain ‘invisible enemy’

By Doina Chiacu and Guy Faulconbridge

(Reuters) – Coronavirus fears led to a historic drop in U.S. stocks, shut borders and disrupted daily life around the world, as governments took increasingly drastic measures to try to reduce the severity of the global outbreak.

Financial markets had their worst day in 30 years despite emergency action by global central banks to try to prevent a recession, with U.S. stock markets falling 12% to 13%, wiping out trillions of dollars in market value.

Just a month ago, financial markets were hitting record highs on the assumption the outbreak would largely be contained in China and not cause disruptions beyond what was seen with earlier viral outbreaks of Ebola, SARS and MERS. There have now been more cases and more deaths outside mainland China than inside, with 180,000 cases worldwide and over 7,000 deaths.

Canada, Chile and other countries closed their borders to visitors. Peru deployed masked military personnel to block major roads, while Ireland launched a campaign to recruit more healthcare workers. Airlines slashed flights, shed jobs and asked governments for billions of dollars in loans and grants.

In contrast to much of the world, Mexico and Brazil still held large political rallies and the United Kingdom kept its schools open.

GRAPHIC: Track the spread of coronavirus – https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-MAP/0100B59S39E/index.html

‘INVISIBLE ENEMY’

U.S. states pleaded with the Trump administration on Monday to coordinate a national response to the outbreak, saying patchwork measures enacted by state and local authorities were insufficient to confront the coast-to-coast emergency that has killed at least 74 Americans.

A few hours later, President Donald Trump urged Americans to halt most social activities for 15 days and not congregate in groups larger than 10 people in a newly aggressive effort to reduce the spread of the coronavirus.

Calling the highly contagious virus an “invisible enemy,” Trump said the worst of the outbreak could be over by July, August or later and warned a recession was possible.

However, the United States was not yet closing its borders or mandating curfews or business closures on a national scale.

Many states and cities had already taken those steps or were preparing to. San Francisco area residents will be urged to shelter in place for three weeks starting on Tuesday, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

A White House adviser said the United States could pump $800 billion or more into the economy to minimize economic damage.

EU finance ministers were planning a coordinated economic response to the virus, which the European Commission says could push the European Union into recession.

‘TEST, TEST, TEST’

The World Health Organization (WHO) called on all countries on Monday to ramp up testing programs as the best way to slow the advance of the pandemic.

“We have a simple message to all countries – test, test, test,” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a news conference in Geneva. “All countries should be able to test all suspected cases. They cannot fight this pandemic blindfolded.”

In Italy, another 349 people died on Monday, taking the total to 2,158, with nearly 28,000 cases, after 368 deaths were reported on Sunday, a daily toll more dire than even China was reporting at the peak of the outbreak.

“Many children think it is scary,” Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg told a news conference dedicated to answering children’s questions about the pandemic.

“It is OK to be scared when so many things happen at the same time,” Solberg said.

Several countries banned mass gatherings such as sports, cultural and religious events to combat the fast-spreading respiratory disease that has infected nearly 179,000 people globally and killed more than 7,000.

Spain and France, where cases and fatalities have begun surging at a pace just days behind that of Italy, imposed severe lockdowns over the weekend.

The Middle East business and travel hub of Dubai said it was closing all bars and lounges until the end of March. Thailand plans to close schools, bars, movie theaters and popular cockfighting arenas.

Public health experts in the United States and elsewhere are hoping the measures will help spread out the number of new cases over time so as not to overwhelm hospitals and healthcare systems as has happened in Italy.

Italy’s Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte told daily Corriere della Sera that the outbreak was still getting worse, though the governor of Lombardy, the northern region that has suffered the worst, said he saw the first signs of a slowdown.

The International Olympic Committee will hold talks with heads of international sports organizations on Tuesday, a source close to a federation briefed on the issue said, amid doubts the Tokyo 2020 Olympics set to start on July 24 can proceed.

(Reporting by Doina Choicu in Washington and Guy Faulconbridge in London; Additional reporting by Leela de Krester and Maria Caspani in New York; Jeff Mason, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Nandita Bose, Howard Schneider and Ann Saphir in Washington; Kate Holton in London; Jan Strupczewski and Francesco Guarascio in Brussels; Francesca Landini and Elvira Pollina in Milan; John Revill in Zurich; Emma Farge in Lausanne; Kevin Yao in Beijing; Jaime Freed in Sydney; Gwladys Fouche in Oslo; Kay Johnson in Bangkok and Tracy; Rucinski in Chicago; Writing by Raju Gopalakrishnan, Nick Macfie and Lisa Shumaker; Editing by Peter Graff and Bill Berkrot)

Trump says U.S., China still talking on trade but not ready for a deal

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump speaks about the shootings in El Paso and Dayton in the Diplomatic Room of the White House in Washington, U.S., August 5, 2019. REUTERS/Leah Millis

By Roberta Rampton

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump said on Friday that the United States and China were still pursuing a trade agreement but he was not ready to make a deal.

Speaking to reporters at the White House before departing for fundraisers in New York state, Trump also said the United States would continue to refrain from doing business with Chinese telecoms equipment giant Huawei Technologies.

U.S. stocks extended losses after his comments, looking set to end a punishing week deep in the red on rising trade war worries.[.N]

“We’re doing very well with China. We’re talking with China. We’re not ready to make a deal – but we’ll see what happens,” Trump said.

“China wants to do something, but I’m not ready to do anything yet. Twenty-five years of abuse – I’m not ready so fast, so we’ll see how that works out.” the president added.

Trump said the United States would not do business with Huawei for the time being, although that might change with a trade deal.

The U.S. Commerce Department, which had effectively banned Huawei in May from purchasing U.S. technology, software and services over national security concerns, had been considering granting some licenses for American companies to sell certain products to Huawei.

(Reporting by Roberta Rampton and Jonas Ekblom; Writing by David Lawder and Humeyra Pamuk; Editing by Steve Orlofsky and Howard Goller)

Wall St. drops on surprise Mexico tariff threat

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) shortly after the opening bell in New York, U.S. May 31, 2019. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. stocks dropped on Friday, putting the S&P 500 on track for its first monthly drop of the year after President Donald Trump’s surprise threat of tariffs on Mexico fueled fears increasing trade wars could lead to a recession.

Washington will impose a 5% tariff from June 10, which would then rise steadily to 25% until illegal immigration across the southern border was stopped, Trump tweeted late on Thursday.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador responded by urging his U.S. counterpart to back down.

“Mexico would probably like to work something out but I don’t think they even know what to work out,” said Tim Ghriskey, Chief Investment Strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York.

“It’s impossible to handicap Trump because something can come out of left field like this and something can go away just as quickly.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 315.97 points, or 1.26%, to 24,853.91, the S&P 500 lost 33.82 points, or 1.21%, to 2,755.04 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 97.59 points, or 1.29%, to 7,470.12.

Wall Street’s main indexes are down more than 6% in May, as investors have become increasingly worried about deteriorating trade talks between the U.S. and China trade war and have sought safety in government bonds. Technology and energy have been among the hardest hit sectors since May 3 as Trump ramped up tariff threats with Beijing.

U.S. Treasury yields fell to new multi-month lows. Benchmark 10-year yields dropped as low as 2.145 percent, the lowest since September 2017.

The yield curve, as measured in the gap between three-month and 10-year bond yields, remained deeply inverted. An inversion in the yield curve is seen by some as an indicator that a recession is likely in one to two years.

Of the 11 major S&P sectors, only defensive plays utilities and real estate were the two on the plus side while eight were showing drops of more than 1%.

U.S. carmakers and manufacturers were among the worst hit. General Motors Co dropped 4.16% and Ford Motor Co 2.67%, pushing the consumer discretionary sector 1.43% lower.

Adding to the downbeat mood was Beijing’s warning on Friday that it would unveil an unprecedented hit-list of “unreliable” foreign firms, as a slate of retaliatory tariffs on imported U.S. goods was set to kick in at midnight. Tariff-sensitive industrials declined 1.36%.

Data showed U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in 15 months in April, but a cooling in spending pointed to a slowdown in economic growth that could keep inflation pressures moderate.

The report from the Commerce Department supported the Federal Reserve’s contention that recent low inflation readings were transitory.

Among other stocks, Gap Inc tumbled 10.75%, the most among S&P 500 companies, after the apparel retailer cut its 2019 profit forecast.

Constellation Brands, which has substantial brewery operations in Mexico, slid 6.50%.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.52-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.20-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 4 new 52-week highs and 52 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 12 new highs and 210 new lows.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Wall Street gains as U.S.-China trade talks advance

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., February 13, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Amy Caren Daniel

(Reuters) – U.S. stocks gained on Friday, led by a bounce in shares of financials, as investors were optimistic about the ongoing trade talks to resolve a bruising tariff dispute between the United States and China.

Talks between the world’s largest economies will continue next week in Washington, with both sides saying this week’s negotiations in Beijing made good progress.

“Trade talks have been completed in Beijing and the good news is that they are planning on having another round of negotiations in Washington next week,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York.

“The market is predicated on a positive outcome from the trade negotiations.”

Hopes of a trade deal ahead of a March 1 deadline has helped the trade-sensitive industrial sector gain more than 16 percent so far this year, making it the best performing S&P sector.

The sector rose 0.97 percent boosted by bellwethers Boeing Co and Caterpillar Inc.

Leading the gains among the 11 major S&P sectors trading higher were financial companies up 1.66 percent, after a more than 1 percent fall in the prior session.

The sector was hit by a fall in U.S. treasury yields on Thursday after bleak retail sales data in December suggested a sharp slowdown in economic activity at the end of 2018.

Another concern for markets was a threat by President Donald Trump to declare a national emergency in an attempt to fund his U.S.-Mexico border wall without congressional approval.

Still, he agreed to sign the bill that lacked money for his wall, but prevents another damaging government shutdown.

At 9:53 a.m. EDT the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 275.89 points, or 1.08 percent, at 25,715.28, the S&P 500 was up 22.19 points, or 0.81 percent, at 2,767.92 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 21.83 points, or 0.29 percent, at 7,448.79.

PepsiCo Inc shares rose 2.6 percent after the soda maker forecast an increase in revenue growth. Nvidia Corp rose 2.0 percent and helped push the technology sector 0.29 percent higher, after the chipmaker forecast sales for its current fiscal year above expectations.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.76-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.69-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P index recorded 38 new 52-week highs and no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 43 new highs and 10 new lows.

(Reporting by Amy Caren Daniel and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)

U.S. stocks attempt rebound

A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., December 26, 2018. REUTERS/Jeenah Moon

By Medha Singh

(Reuters) – U.S. stocks were attempting a modest rebound on Wednesday, boosted by technology shares and an Amazon-led jump in retailers, following four sessions of steep losses that pushed the S&P 500 and Dow Industrials near bear market territory.

After a strong start, the S&P and Dow swung between gains and losses. At its session low, the S&P hit a fresh 20-month low and came within two points of entering bear market territory, measured by a drop of more than 20 percent from a closing high.

The gains were led by technology stocks, which rose 1.49 percent. Their 9.2 percent slump in the past four sessions was the steepest among the 11 major S&P sectors, while the S&P 500 tumbled 7.7 percent.

Amazon.com Inc jumped 4.02 percent after reporting a “record-breaking” season. The stock was giving the biggest boost to the S&P and Nasdaq and led the consumer discretionary index up 1.49 percent.

But investors anxieties were far from gone. President Donald Trump renewed his attack on the Federal Reserve on Christmas, blaming it for the market slump.

Trump also said the U.S. government shutdown, now in its fifth day, would last until his demand for funds to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border is met.

A little over 2,100 stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq hit 52-week lows. That compares with at least 2,600 stocks breaching new lows in the past three sessions.

“The market doesn’t look so healthy. The concerns are government shutdown, the economy, the President – what time is he going to tweet out about Federal Reserve,” said Larry Benedict, founder of the Opportunistic Trader in Boca Raton, Florida.

“We’re seeing the same thing recently and it’s not really good. It opens up every day and it’s met by selling and it ends nearer the low or on the low than the high. For the market to make a bottom, you need a bit of capitulation or panic bottom.”

The S&P was up 24.41 points, or 1.04 percent, at 2,375.51, at 11:37 a.m. ET, a day after the Christmas holiday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 196.31 points, or 0.90 percent, at 21,988.51 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 98.42 points, or 1.59 percent, at 6,291.34.

Eight of the 11 S&P sectors were higher, with the defensive utilities. SPLRCU real estat and consumer staples flat to lower.

Energy stocks rose 1.8 percent as crude oil prices rebounded.

Retailers jumped 3.14 percent, led by Amazon after a Mastercard report showed U.S. holiday sales were the strongest in six years.

The heavy-weight FAANG group, Facebook Inc, Amazon, Apple Inc, Netflix Inc and Alphabet Inc, rose between 1 percent and 4 percent.

The S&P ended Monday 19.8 percent below its all-time closing high, with roughly three-fourths of its stocks already in a bear market.

The Dow finished Monday 18.9 percent lower than its closing high. The Nasdaq is already in bear market, along with the Dow Jones Transport Average and small-cap Russell 2000 index.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.70-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.89-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&P index recorded no new 52-week highs and 194 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded five new highs and 455 new lows.

(Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva)

Fed raises interest rates, signals more hikes ahead

A screen displays the headlines that the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates as a trader works at a post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., December 19, 2018. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Ann Saphir and Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – After weeks of market volatility and calls by President Donald Trump for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates, the U.S. central bank instead did it again, and stuck by a plan to keep withdrawing support from an economy it views as strong.

U.S. stocks and bond yields fell hard. With the Fed signaling “some further gradual” rate hikes and no break from cutting its massive bond portfolio, traders fretted that policymakers could choke off economic growth.

“Maybe they have already committed their policy error,” said Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3Edge Asset Management. “We would be in the camp that they have already raised rates too much.”

Interest rate futures show traders are currently betting the Fed won’t raise rates at all next year.

Wednesday’s rate increase, the fourth of the year, pushed the central bank’s key overnight lending rate to a range of 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent.

In a news conference after the release of the policy statement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank would continue trimming its balance sheet by $50 billion each month, and left open the possibility that continued strong data could force it to raise rates to the point where they start to brake the economy’s momentum.

Powell did bow to what he called recent “softening” in global growth, tighter financial conditions, and expectations the U.S. economy will slow next year, and said that with inflation expected to remain a touch below the Fed’s 2 percent target next year, policymakers can be “patient.”

Fresh economic forecasts showed officials at the median now see only two more rate hikes next year compared to the three projected in September.

But another message was clear in the statement issued after the Fed’s last policy meeting of the year as well as in Powell’s comments: The U.S. economy continues to perform well and no longer needs the Fed’s support either through lower-than-normal interest rates or by maintaining of a massive balance sheet.

“Policy does not need to be accommodative,” he said.

In its statement, the Fed said risks to the economy were “roughly balanced” but that it would “continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook.”

The Fed also made a widely expected technical adjustment, raising the rate it pays on banks’ excess reserves by just 20 basis points to give it better control over the policy rate and keep it within the targeted range.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell arrives at his news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, U.S., December 19, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell arrives at his news conference after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, U.S., December 19, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas

CHOPPY WATERS

The decision to raise borrowing costs again is likely to anger Trump, who has repeatedly attacked the central bank’s tightening this year as damaging to the economy.

The Fed has been raising rates to reduce the boost that monetary policy gives to the economy, which is growing faster than what central bank policymakers view as a sustainable rate.

There are worries, however, that the economy could enter choppy waters next year as the fiscal boost from the Trump administration’s spending and $1.5 trillion tax cut package fades and the global economy slows.

“I think that markets were looking for more in terms of the pause,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group in Richmond, Virginia.

“It’s not as dovish as expected, but I do believe the Fed will ultimately back off even further as we move into the new year.”

The benchmark S&P 500 index <.SPX> tumbled to a 15-month low, extending a streak of volatility that has dogged the market since late September. The index is down nearly 15 percent from its record high.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell as low as 2.75 percent, the lowest since April 4.

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

Fed policymakers’ median forecast puts the federal funds rate at 3.1 percent at the end of 2020 and 2021, according to the projections.

That would leave borrowing costs just above policymakers’ newly downgraded median view of a 2.8 percent neutral rate that neither brakes nor boosts a healthy economy, but still within the 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent range of Fed estimates for that rate.

Powell parried three questions about whether the Fed intended to restrict the economy with its rate policy, but gave little away.

“There would be circumstances in which it would be appropriate for us to go past neutral, and there would be circumstances in which it would be wholly inappropriate to do so.”

Gross domestic product is forecast to grow 2.3 percent next year and 2.0 percent in 2020, slightly weaker than the Fed previously anticipated. The unemployment rate, currently at a 49-year low of 3.7 percent, is expected to fall to 3.5 percent next year and rise slightly in 2020 and 2021.

Inflation, which hit the central bank’s 2 percent target this year, is expected to be 1.9 percent next year, a bit lower than the 2.0 percent forecast three months ago.

There were no dissents in the Fed’s policy decision.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir and Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Lewis Krauskopf in New York; Editing by Paul Simao and Dan Burns)

Fed expected to increase rates, may signal fewer hikes ahead

FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump looks on as Jerome Powell, his nominee to become chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks at the White House in Washington, U.S., November 2, 2017. REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo

By Ann Saphir and Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates on Wednesday, but may cut the number of hikes it anticipates next year and signal an earlier end to its monetary tightening in the face of financial market volatility and rising recession fears.

The central bank is due to announce its decision at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT) after its final two-day policy meeting of the year. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference half an hour later.

Investors widely expect the Fed will lift borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of between 2.25 percent and 2.50 percent. It would be the fourth rate hike of the year and the ninth since the central bank began its current tightening cycle in December 2015.

A rate hike on Wednesday could draw the ire of the White House. President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked the Fed for raising rates this year, saying it was undercutting his efforts to boost the economy. On Tuesday, Trump warned Fed policymakers not to “make yet another mistake.”

The Fed’s tightening is designed to reduce the monetary policy boost to a U.S. economy that is now growing much faster than central bank policymakers think it can sustain.

With the price of oil tumbling, economic growth in Europe and China slipping, and the fiscal stimulus from the Trump administration’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package expected to fade, Fed policymakers appear ready to back away from their prior view that the economy could weather three more rate hikes next year.

Fresh Fed economic forecasts to be released along with the policy statement may suggest that two rate hikes is more likely, economists say. Traders of interest rate futures do not even think the Fed will manage one hike.

“You are at an inflection point,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust. “You are most likely seeing growth slowing and you don’t know how much growth and what kind of growth is left over after the fiscal stimulus wears off. And that’s why they don’t know if they need zero, one, or more rate hikes.”

U.S. stocks were broadly higher Wednesday morning on investor optimism the Fed would signal it was near the end of its tightening cycle. The S&P 500 index & SPX has tumbled more than 12 percent since late September and, barring a turnaround, is on pace for its poorest December performance since 1931.

With borrowing costs after Wednesday’s expected rate hike close to, if not in, the broad range that Fed officials have identified as “neutral” for a healthy economy, policymakers are also likely to emphasize that future rate-setting decisions will hinge on new economic data.

That may be particularly important as data pulls the central bank in different directions, with a strong labor market and robust output suggesting the need for higher rates, and a weaker global economy and U.S. bond yields suggesting not.

The divergence between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world was cast into stark relief after FedEx Corp slashed its profit outlook on Tuesday. FedEx, seen as a bellwether for global trade, flagged a litany of issues including a Brexit-led slowdown in the United Kingdom, a contraction in the German economy and slowing China demand due to an ongoing trade spat with the United States.

FORWARD GUIDANCE

Economists say the Fed will probably modify or remove from its policy statement a reference to the likelihood that “further gradual increases” in its key overnight lending rate will be needed.

Doing so would mark one more step in the Fed’s march away from its reliance on forward guidance to shape market expectations in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession.

It could also help the central bank guard against criticism, whether from Trump or others, by allowing Powell to point to the economic realities on the ground as forcing his hand on any future rate hikes.

“They want to get to the place where they can say all decisions are data-dependent,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Standish Mellon Asset Management.

(Editing by Paul Simao)

U.S. inflation pressures rise in July; Fed on track to lift rates

FILE PHOTO: A woman shops with her daughter at a Walmart Supercenter in Rogers, Arkansas, U.S., June 6, 2013. REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File Phot

By Lindsay Dunsmuir

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer prices rose in July and the underlying trend continued to strengthen, pointing to a steady increase in inflation pressures that keeps the Federal Reserve on track to gradually raise interest rates.

The Labor Department said on Friday its Consumer Price Index advanced 0.2 percent, the bulk of which was due to a rise in the cost of shelter, driven by higher rents. The CPI rose 0.1 percent in June.

In the 12 months through July, the CPI increased 2.9 percent, matching the increase in June.

Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.2 percent, the same gain as in May and June. The annual increase in the so-called core CPI was 2.4 percent, the largest rise since September 2008, from 2.3 percent in June.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast both the CPI and core CPI rising 0.2 percent in July.

U.S. Treasury yields held near three-week lows and U.S. stocks fell on anxiety about Turkey’s financial woes and its deepening rift with the United States. The U.S. dollar was trading higher against a basket of currencies.

“As the July CPI figures make clear, underlying price pressures are still mounting,” said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics in New York.

The Fed more closely tracks a different inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, which increased 1.9 percent in June.

That gauge hit the U.S. central bank’s 2 percent target in March for the first time in more than six years and Fed policymakers have said they will not be unduly concerned if it overshoots its target in the coming months.

The U.S. central bank has raised rates twice this year, in March and June, and financial markets overwhelmingly expect a hike at the next policy meeting in September.

The Fed currently forecasts a total of four rate rises in 2018, with investors expecting a final nudge upwards of the year in the benchmark overnight lending rate in December.

Inflation pressures are seen continuing to build amid low unemployment and increasing difficulty reported by employers in filling positions. Rising raw material costs are also expected to push up inflation as manufacturers pay more, in part because of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on lumber, aluminum and steel imports.

Last month, gasoline prices fell 0.6 percent after increasing 0.5 percent in June. Food prices edged up 0.1 percent after rising 0.2 percent in June.

Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence, which is what a homeowner would pay to rent or receive from renting a home, advanced 0.3 percent last month after increasing by the same margin in June. Overall, the so-called shelter index rose 3.5 percent in the 12 months through July.

Healthcare costs fell 0.2 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in June. Prices for new motor vehicles rose 0.3 percent in July following a 0.4 percent increase in the prior month. Apparel prices were down 0.3 percent after a 0.9 percent drop in June.

(Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Paul Simao)