Tag Archives: U.S. homebuilding

U.S. homebuilding takes a step back amid bitterly cold weather

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding dropped to a six-month low in February as severe cold gripped many parts of the country, in a temporary setback for a housing market that remains supported by extremely lean inventories amid strong demand for larger homes.

The report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday also showed a sharp decline in building permits last month. It followed on the heels of data this week showing that the deep freeze, which was most severe in Texas and other parts of the densely populated South region, depressed retail sales and output at factories.

Though the second straight monthly decline in homebuilding could lead economists to trim their lofty gross domestic product estimates for the first quarter, a rebound in starts is expected in the April-June period, keeping intact predictions that economic growth this year will be the strongest since 1984.

Indeed, the Federal Reserve on Wednesday projected robust growth and higher inflation this year. The U.S. central bank, however, repeated its pledge to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate near zero for years to come.

“We can read nothing into the underlying strength of the economy from these weather-distorted reports,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economic advisor at Brean Capital in New York. “March data are likely to show strong bounce backs in consumer spending, industrial production and construction activity.”

Housing starts fell 10.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.421 million units last month, the lowest level since last August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would decrease to a rate of 1.560 million units in February.

Starts were down 9.3% on a year-on-year basis in February.

Groundbreaking activity plunged in the Northeast, Midwest and South, but surged in the West. Permits for future home building tumbled 10.8% to a rate of 1.682 million units last month. They, however, jumped 17.0% compared to February 2020, underscoring the housing market’s strength.

U.S. stocks pared losses following the Fed statement. The dollar edged down versus a basket of currencies. Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields were higher.

RISING CHALLENGES

The year-long COVID-19 pandemic has shifted demand towards bigger and more expensive houses as millions of Americans continue to work from home and remote schooling remains in place.

But challenges for the housing market, one of the main drivers of the economic recovery, are mounting. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen to an eight-month high of 3.05%, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates have jumped in tandem with Treasury yields, which have spiked as investors anticipate that stronger growth will generate significant inflation. Growth is being driven by massive fiscal stimulus, including President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion rescue package, which was enacted last week.

A separate report from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday showed a moderate increase in applications for loans to purchase a home last week. Though mortgage rates remain low by historical standards, they are contributing to the rising costs of homeownership, especially for first-time buyers.

Supply disruptions because of coronavirus-related restrictions are driving up commodity prices, including softwood lumber, which surged a record 79.7% in February on a year-on-year basis. According to a survey from the Associated General Contractors of America, manufacturers have hiked drywall prices by 20% effective late March or the beginning of April.

A survey on Tuesday showed confidence among single-family homebuilders dipped in March, despite strong buyer traffic, amid worries over rising material costs and delivery times, especially for softwood lumber.

With the supply of previously owned homes at record low levels, builders are likely to continue breaking more ground, though houses could become more expensive.

“Builders face some near-term challenges,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “We don’t anticipate that this will weigh too heavily on starts, the forecast is for housing starts to steadily increase throughout the course of this year.”

Single-family homebuilding, the largest share of the housing market, declined 8.5% to a rate of 1.040 million units in February, also a six-month low. Single-family building permits tumbled 10.0% to a rate of 1.143 million units.

Starts for the volatile multi-family segment plunged 15.0% to a pace of 381,000 units. Building permits for multi-family housing projects declined 12.5% to a pace of 539,000 units.

Housing completions jumped 2.9% to a rate of 1.362 million units last month. Realtors estimate that housing starts and completion rates need to be in a range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million units per month to close the inventory gap.

The stock of housing under construction rose 0.3% to a rate of 1.283 million units, the highest level since October 2006.

“Builders will continue to have a key role to play in addressing the inventory shortage for a market chock full of eager home shoppers,” said Matthew Speakman, an economist at Zillow. “The homebuilding sector has more room to run.”

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci)

U.S. homebuilding slowing; labor market strong

FILE PHOTO: Construction workers are pictured building a new home in Vienna, Virginia, outside of Washington, October 20, 2014./File Photo

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding rebounded less than expected from a nine-month low in July, suggesting the housing market was likely to tread water for the rest of this year against the backdrop of rising construction costs and labor shortages.

But the fundamentals for the housing market remain strong. New filings for jobless benefits fell again last week, other data showed on Thursday, pointing to sustained labor market strength despite an escalating trade war between the United States and China that has rattled financial markets.

“It is more expensive to buy a new home for the American worker,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “We cannot be confident that home construction will pick up in the near future.”

Housing starts rose 0.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.168 million units in July, the Commerce Department said. Starts fell to a nine-month low in June.

Groundbreaking activity increased in the Midwest and South, but dropped in the Northeast, and hit a more than 1-1/2-year low in the West. Last month’s increase in starts still left the bulk of June’s 12.9 percent plunge intact.

Building permits increased 1.5 percent to a rate of 1.311 million units, snapping three straight months of decreases. With permits now outpacing starts, homebuilding could pick up in the months ahead. But gains are likely to be limited as builders continue to complain about rising construction costs as well as shortages of skilled labor and land.

Lumber prices shot up after the Trump administration slapped anti-subsidy duties on imports of Canadian softwood lumber. Though prices have dropped in the past months, they remain high.

The housing market has underperformed a robust economy, with economists also blaming the slowdown on rising mortgage rates, which have combined with higher house prices to make home purchasing unaffordable for some first-time buyers.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen more than 50 basis points this year to an average of 4.53 percent, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. While that is still low by historical standards, the rise has outpaced annual wage growth, which has been stuck below 3 percent.

At the same time, house prices have increased more than 6.0 percent on an annual basis, largely driven by a dearth of properties available for sale. Residential investment contracted in the first half of the year and economists do not expect housing to contribute to growth in the final six months of 2018.

The economy grew at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, the fastest in nearly four years and almost double the 2.2 percent pace logged in the January-March period.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts rising to a pace of 1.260 million units last month and permits increasing to a rate of 1.310 million units.

“Given the chronic lack of affordable housing and rapidly escalating home prices, it is worrisome that on a per capita basis, the country is producing new single-family housing stock at a rate that is similar to the trough of a typical recession,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac.

The PHLX housing index <.HGX> was trading higher, tracking a broadly firmer U.S. stock market. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies and U.S. Treasury prices fell.

TIGHT SUPPLY

Single-family home building, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, rose 0.9 percent to a rate of 862,000 units in July. Single-family homebuilding has lost momentum since hitting a pace of 948,000 units last November, which was the strongest in more than 10 years.

Permits to build single-family homes jumped 1.9 percent in July to a pace of 869,000 units. Single-family building permits in the South, where more than half of homebuilding occurs, vaulted to an 11-year high in July.

Starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment gained 0.7 percent to a rate of 306,000 units in July. Permits for the construction of multi-family homes climbed 0.7 percent to a pace of 442,000 units.

With the moderate rise in homebuilding last month, housing inventory is likely to remain tight. In addition, housing completions fell for a third straight month, hitting an eight-month low rate of 1.188 million.

Realtors estimate that housing starts and completion rates need to be in a range of 1.5 million to 1.6 million units per month to plug the inventory gap. The stock of housing under construction was little changed at 1.122 million units.

In a separate report on Thursday, the Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 212,000 for the week ended Aug. 11.

The claims data is being closely watched for signs of layoffs as a result of the Trump administration’s protectionist trade policy, which has also led to tit-for-tat import tariffs with other trading partners, including the European Union, Canada, and Mexico.

There have been reports of some companies either laying off workers or planning to as a result of the import duties. But with many companies reporting difficulties finding qualified workers, the fallout from the trade tensions might be minimal.

A third report showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region slowing sharply in August as new orders growth cooled. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its business conditions index tumbled 14 points to a 21-month low of 11.9 this month. Manufacturers were, however, optimistic about business prospects over the next six months.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)