Tag Archives: trade war

White House’s Hassett says progress in China trade talks-Fox Business

FILE PHOTO: Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett gestures as he speaks during a news briefing at the White House in Washington, U.S., September 10, 2018. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Monday that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has made progress in talks with China and a deal was possible to end a dispute that has already put tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars worth of goods.

“I think that it looks like Ambassador Lighthizer has made a lot of progress, and we might get there on China,” Hassett said in an interview with Fox Business Network.

World markets were buoyed on Monday by investors’ optimism that a trade deal could be cemented as soon as this month to resolve the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

“I think everybody’s hopeful, as the markets are, that this is going to get to the finish line sometime soon,” Hassett told Fox, adding that details of any deal are still being worked out.

On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Twitter that trade talks were progressing well and that he had asked China to immediately remove all tariffs on U.S. agricultural products while delaying his own plan to impose 25 percent tariffs on Chinese goods.

A summit between Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could occur around March 27 to finalize a deal, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing a source briefed on negotiations.

A representative for the White House said they had no comment on the ongoing negotiations.

(Reporting by Doina Chiacu, Susan Heavey and Steve Holland; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Jeffrey Benkoe)

Purchase promises not enough to solve U.S.’s China trade issues

By David Lawder

Washington (Reuters) – U.S. issues with China are “too serious” to be resolved with promises from Beijing to purchase more U.S. goods and any deal between the two countries must include a way to ensure commitments are met, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in testimony at a Congressional hearing on Wednesday.

It is too early to predict the outcome of ongoing trade talks with Beijing, Lighthizer told the House of Representative’s Ways and Means Committee at a hearing on U.S.-China trade issues.

Lighthizer is the lead U.S. negotiator in trade negotiations with Beijing as the world’s two largest economies seek to find agreement to resolve a bitter dispute that has seen both sides impose tariffs on imports.

“The issues on the table are too serious to be resolved with promises of additional purchases. We need new rules,” Lighthizer said in prepared testimony.

Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators, including Lighthizer, met through the weekend in Washington, seeking to hammer out a deal to avert the increase in duties and ease a months-long tariff battle.

Citing progress in the discussions, U.S. President Donald Trump delayed a self-imposed March 1 deadline when the United States was scheduled to raise duties on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods from 10 percent to 25 percent. Trump said he may soon meet with China’s President Xi Jingping to finalize a deal.

China represents the “most severe challenge” ever faced by the American trade policymakers, Lighthizer said on Wednesday, noting Congressional support has been “critical in persuading China” to take the U.S. concerns more seriously.

(Reporting by David Lawder in Washington; Writing by Chris Prentice; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Susan Thomas)

Trump delays tariff hike on Chinese goods, citing trade talk progress

By Jeff Mason and David Lawder

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump said on Sunday he would delay an increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods thanks to “productive” trade talks and that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping would meet to seal a deal if progress continued.

The announcement was the clearest sign yet that China and the United States are closing in on a deal to end a months-long trade war that has slowed global growth and disrupted markets.

Trump had planned to raise tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports into the United States if an agreement between the world’s two largest economies were not reached by Friday.

After a week of talks that extended into the weekend, Trump said those tariffs would not go up for now. In a tweet, he said progress had been made in divisive areas including intellectual property protection, technology transfers, agriculture, services and currency.

As a result, he said: “I will be delaying the U.S. increase in tariffs now scheduled for March 1. Assuming both sides make additional progress, we will be planning a Summit for President Xi and myself, at Mar-a-Lago, to conclude an agreement. A very good weekend for U.S. & China!”

Mar-a-Lago is the president’s property in Florida, where the two men have met before.

The president did not set a new deadline for the talks to conclude, but he told U.S. state governors gathered at the White House that there could be “very big news over the next week or two” if all went well in the negotiations.

The White House did not provide specific details on the kind of progress that had been made.

The Chinese government’s top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, told a forum in Beijing on Monday that the talks had made “substantive progress”, providing positive expectations for the stability of bilateral ties and global economic development, China’s Foreign Ministry said.

China’s official Xinhua news agency said in a commentary that the goal of an agreement was getting “closer and closer”, but also warned that negotiations would get more difficult as they approached the final stages.

“The emergence of new uncertainty cannot be ruled out, and the long-term nature, complexity, and difficulty of China-U.S. trade frictions must be clearly recognized,” Xinhua said.

Trump and Xi called a 90-day truce last year to give their advisers time to negotiate a deal. The threat of tariff increases represented significant leverage for the Trump team as Beijing is trying to stabilize China’s cooling economy.

“We can’t be sure whether this constitutes a major cave or success because we don’t know the details of what has been negotiated. But … agreeing to extend negotiations a few more weeks definitely is in China’s interests,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“At this point, the U.S. has likely gotten all it’s going to get out of China.”

J.P. Morgan Asset Management market strategist Tai Hui said the move suggested both sides wanted a settlement of the dispute and added that further tariff escalation would have added to concerns about the U.S. growth outlook.

Markets, which have been sensitive to the dispute as it has slowed global growth, and some U.S. trade associations cheered Trump’s move.

U.S. equity index futures opened higher on Sunday evening as trading kicked off for the week. S&P 500 e-mini futures ticked higher after Trump’s tweets on trade, suggesting Wall Street would open on positive footing on Monday morning.

Asian shares scaled a five-month high and the Australian dollar, a proxy for China investments, got a 0.4 percent lift from the news. [MKTS/GLOB]

Chinese stocks and the yuan jumped at the start of trade, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite index up 2.1 percent, its highest since Aug. 1, and the yuan hit its strongest level against the dollar since July.[.SS]

Trump leaves on Monday for Vietnam, where he will hold a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The president, who faces a re-election battle next year, has portrayed his engagement with Kim and forcefulness with China as key successes of his presidency.

ENFORCEMENT STICKING POINT

Trump said on Friday there was a “good chance” a deal would emerge. But his lead trade negotiator, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, emphasized then that some major hurdles remained. Lighthizer has been a key voice in pushing China to make structural reforms.

China’s negotiators stayed for the weekend and the two sides discussed the thorny issue of how to enforce a potential trade deal on Sunday, according to a person familiar with the talks. Tariffs and commodities were also on Sunday’s agenda, he said.

Negotiators have been seeking to iron out differences on changes to China’s treatment of state-owned enterprises, subsidies, forced technology transfers and cyber theft.

Washington wants a strong enforcement mechanism to ensure that Chinese reform commitments are followed through to completion, while Beijing has insisted on what it called a “fair and objective” process. Another source briefed on the talks said that enforcement remained a major sticking point as of Saturday.

Reuters reported on Wednesday that both sides were drafting memorandums of understanding (MOUs) on cyber theft, intellectual property rights, services, agriculture and non-tariff barriers to trade, including subsidies.

Trump said he did not like MOUs because they are short-term, and he wanted a long-term deal. That sparked a back-and-forth with Lighthizer, who argued that MOUs were binding contracts, before saying they would abandon the term altogether going forward.

The source familiar with the talks played down the apparent tension between the top trade negotiator and the president, saying Trump, a former New York businessman, had viewed MOUs from a real estate perspective, while Lighthizer had done so from a trade perspective. There was no daylight between the two men, the source said.

At the White House event with governors on Sunday, Trump said Lighthizer was doing a “fantastic” job.

(Reporting by Jeff Mason and David Lawder; Additional reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh, Sarah N. Lynch and Howard Schneider in Washington; Josh Horwitz in Shanghai; and Michael Martina and Ben Blanchard in Beijing; Editing by Peter Cooney & Kim Coghill)

U.S., China haggle over toughest issues in trade war talks

U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer (2ndL), Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross (Top-L) pose for a photograph with China's Vice Premier Liu He (2ndR), Chinese vice ministers and senior officials before the start of US-China trade talks at the White House in Washington, U.S., February 21, 2019. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts

By Jeff Mason and David Lawder

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Top U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators haggled on Thursday over the details of a set of agreements aimed at ending their trade war, just one week before a Washington-imposed deadline for a deal expires and triggers higher U.S. tariffs.

Reuters reported exclusively on Wednesday that the two sides are starting to sketch out an agreement on structural issues, drafting language for six memorandums of understanding on proposed Chinese reforms.

If the two sides fail to reach an agreement by March 1, U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports are set to rise to 25 percent from 10 percent. Tit-for-tat tariffs between the world’s two largest economic powers have disrupted international trade and slowed the global economy since the trade war started seven months ago.

Negotiators have struggled this week to overcome differences on specific language to address tough U.S. demands for structural changes in China’s economy, two sources familiar with the talks said. The issues include an enforcement mechanism to ensure that China complies with any agreements.

“It’s not surprising that this week has been more challenging,” said an industry source familiar with the talks. “Once you move from putting together outlines to filling out the details, that is where things would naturally become more challenging.”

Chinese officials did not answer questions as they left the U.S. Trade Representative’s office on Thursday evening after more than nine hours of talks on Thursday.

The discussions began with a photo opportunity where U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He faced each other silently across a table in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next door to the White House.

U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Liu at the Oval Office on Friday, the White House said late on Thursday. The two also met at the end of talks during Liu’s last visit to Washington in late January.

Trump, who has embraced an “America First” policy as part of an effort to rebalance global trade, has said the March 1 deadline could be extended if enough progress is made.

Sources familiar with the negotiations told Reuters the memorandums would cover forced technology transfer and cyber theft, intellectual property rights, services, currency, agriculture and non-tariff barriers to trade.

The two sides remain far apart on demands by Trump’s administration for China to end practices on those issues that led Trump to start levying duties on Chinese imports in the first place.

Chinese President Xi Jinping would need to undertake difficult structural economic reforms to meet U.S. demands. The United States is offering no real concessions in return, other than to remove the tariff barriers Trump has imposed to force change from China.

PEN TO PAPER

One of Trump’s demands that is easier to fix for Beijing is to reduce the trade imbalance between the two nations. The U.S. trade deficit with China reached a record $382 billion through the first 11 months of 2018.

The two sides have reached consensus on how to alleviate the trade imbalances, several Chinese government sources said. Washington and Beijing are looking at a 10-item list for that, including additional Chinese purchases of agricultural produce, energy and goods such as semiconductors.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue called China’s pledges to purchase U.S. agricultural produce premature.

“Those proposals are all contingent upon a grand deal,” he said on the sidelines of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s annual forum in Washington.

“The real issue is structural reforms regarding intellectual property, enforceability of those types of provisions.”

The United States could quickly recover its lost agricultural markets in China if a deal is struck, he said.

Perdue has overseen $12 billion in federal aid to U.S. farmers for losses they have sustained because of the trade war. China had all but halted purchases of U.S. soybeans, which were the single biggest U.S. agricultural export, worth around $12 billion in 2017.

(Reporting by Jeff Mason and David Lawder; Additional reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh, Humeyra Pamuk in Washington, Chris Prentice in New York and Michael Martina in Beijing; writing by Simon Webb; editing by Paul Simao, Richard Chang and Grant McCool)

Exclusive: U.S., China sketch outlines of deal to end trade war – sources

FILE PHOTO: U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, second from left, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, third from left, and Chinese Vice Premier and lead trade negotiator Liu He, second from right, pose for a photo before the opening session of trade negotiations at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, Thursday, Feb. 14, 2019. Mark Schiefelbein/Pool via REUTERS

By Jeff Mason

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States and China have started to outline commitments in principle on the stickiest issues in their trade dispute, marking the most significant progress yet toward ending a seven-month trade war, according to sources familiar with the negotiations.

The world’s two largest economies have slapped tit-for-tat tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of goods, slowing global economic growth, skewing supply chains and disrupting manufacturing.

As officials hold high-level talks on Thursday and Friday in Washington, they remain far apart on demands made by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration for structural changes to China’s economy.

But the broad outline of what could make up a deal is beginning to emerge from the talks, the sources said, as the two sides push for an agreement by March 1. That marks the end of a 90-day truce that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to when they met in Argentina late last year.

Negotiators are drawing up six memorandums of understanding on structural issues: forced technology transfer and cyber theft, intellectual property rights, services, currency, agriculture, and non-tariff barriers to trade, according to two sources familiar with the progress of the talks.

At meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials last week in Beijing the two sides traded texts and worked on outlining obligations on paper, according to one of the sources.

The process has become a real trade negotiation, the source said, so much so that at the end of the week the participants considered staying in Beijing to keep working. Instead they agreed to take a few days off and reconvene in Washington.

The sources requested anonymity to speak candidly about the talks.

Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng on Thursday declined to comment on the MOUs.

U.S. equity index futures initially rallied on the news of progress in the talks, with the S&P 500’s e-mini futures contract gaining about 0.4 percent over the following hour during Asian trading. The dollar strengthened and U.S. Treasury security yields rose.

U.S. stocks later retreated in Thursday’s Wall Street session following a batch of weaker-than-expected economic data, though the dollar and bond yields remained modestly higher.

GETTING COMMITMENTS IN WRITING

The MOUs cover the most complex issues affecting the trading relationship between the two countries and are meant, from the U.S. perspective, to end the practices that led Trump to start levying duties on Chinese imports in the first place.

One source cautioned that the talks could still end in failure. But the work on the MOUs was a significant step in getting China to sign up both to broad principles and to specific commitments on key issues, he said.

Several Chinese government sources told Reuters that the two countries have basically reached a consensus on alleviating the trade imbalances, but there were still some differences on each other’s “core demands” that they were seeking to narrow.

“It can be said that we are now in the sprint phase, and both negotiating teams are working towards the goal of reaching an agreement within the deadline, but some problems are still quite complicated to resolve,” said one Chinese official familiar with the situation.

The United States has accused Beijing of forcing U.S. companies doing business in China to share their technology with local partners and hand over intellectual property secrets. China denies it engages in such practices.

Trump administration officials also object to non-tariff barriers in China, including industrial subsidies, regulations, business licensing procedures, product standards reviews and other practices that they say keep U.S. goods out of China or give an unfair advantage to domestic firms.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has pushed for China to open its financial services markets to more foreign firms, including major credit card companies Visa and MasterCard, which have waited years for China to make good on promises to allow them to operate there.

On currency, U.S. officials including Mnuchin have warned China against devaluing its yuan to gain a competitive advantage after the Chinese currency weakened significantly against the dollar last year, partly counteracting Trump’s tariffs.

The two sides were discussing an enforcement mechanism for the deal, the source said. Reuters reported last month that the United States was pushing for regular reviews of China’s progress on pledged trade reforms and could reinstate tariffs if it deems Beijing has violated the agreement.

The parties also were looking at a 10-item list of ways that China could reduce its trade surplus with the United States, including by buying agricultural produce, energy and goods such as semiconductors, according to two other sources familiar with the talks.

CLOCK IS TICKING

Time is running short ahead of the March 1 deadline to resolve the dispute or see U.S. tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods rise from 10 percent to 25 percent. Trump said on Tuesday he thought China had an incentive to move swiftly.

“I think they’re trying to move fast so that doesn’t happen,” he told reporters in the Oval Office, while not ruling out the possibility of extending the deadline.

Lower-level officials held a round of talks in Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday. They will be joined on Thursday by the top-level negotiators, led by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He.

One senior Chinese government official familiar with the talks said that extending the deadline was an option, though both sides were trying to reach an agreement before March 1 and any extension would not be too long.

It is possible the talks won’t resolve all the differences, and it will be up to the two heads of state to make a final decision, the official said.

(Reporting by Jeff Mason in Washington; Additional reporting by Michael Martina, Jing Xu, Muyu Xu and Martin Pollard in BEIJING and David Lawder in WASHINGTON; Editing by Simon Webb, Sonya Hepinstall and James Dalgleish)

New round of U.S.-China trade talks to begin in Washington on Tuesday

Aides set up platforms before a group photo with members of U.S. and Chinese trade negotiation delegations at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China February 15, 2019. Mark Schiefelbein/Pool via REUTERS

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A new round of talks between the United States and China to resolve their trade war will take place in Washington on Tuesday, with follow-up sessions at a higher level later in the week, the White House said.

The talks follow a round of negotiations that ended in Beijing last week without a deal but which officials said had generated progress on contentious issues between the world’s two largest economies.

The talks are aimed at “achieving needed structural changes in China that affect trade between the United States and China. The two sides will also discuss China’s pledge to purchase a substantial amount of goods and services from the United States,” the White House said in a statement.

The higher-level talks will start on Thursday and be led by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, a strong proponent of pressing China to end practices that the United States says include forced technology transfers from U.S. companies and intellectual property theft.

China, which denies that it engages in such practices, confirmed that Vice Premier Liu He will visit Washington on Thursday and Friday for the talks.

The White House said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, economic adviser Larry Kudlow and trade adviser Peter Navarro would also take part in the talks.

U.S. tariffs on $200 billion in imports from China are set to rise to 25 percent from 10 percent if no deal is reached by March 1.

Trump, who suggested last week that he could extend the deadline for the talks, reiterated in a speech on Monday that the negotiations had been fruitful.

“We’re making a lot of progress. Nobody expected this was going to be happening,” he told a crowd in Florida.

Speaking in Beijing on Tuesday, the Chinese government’s top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, told a visiting U.S. business delegation that everyone was “paying attention” to the talks.

“If our two countries can respect each other and cooperate it will not only be the right choice for us but it is also the common hope of international society,” Wang told the group, which included U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President Myron Brilliant and former U.S. deputy secretary of the treasury Robert Kimmitt.

Brilliant said that in the last year or so there had been “serious discussions about economic issues”.

“We are hopeful that the two sides will reach a comprehensive, bold and significant trade agreement that will be enduring and long-lasting. This is the challenge for both governments.”

(Reporting by Jeff Mason in WASHINGTON and Ben Blanchard and Lusha Zhang in BEIJING; Editing by Paul Tait)

U.S. job growth surges; annual wage gain largest since 2009

A man holds his briefcase while waiting in line during a job fair in Melville, New York July 19, 2012. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. job growth accelerated in August and wages notched their largest annual increase in more than nine years, strengthening views that the economy was so far weathering the Trump administration’s escalating trade war with China.

The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report published on Friday also showed slack in the jobs market was rapidly diminishing, with a broader measure of unemployment falling to a level not seen since 2001. The report cemented expectations for a third interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve this year when policymakers meet on Sept. 25-26.

“The economy is on an adrenalin rush,” said Ryan Sweet, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “Given the amount of fiscal stimulus that the economy is benefiting from, it’s going to take a lot to get it off that high.”

Nonfarm payrolls surged by 201,000 jobs last month, boosted by hiring at construction sites, wholesalers and professional and business services, the Labor Department said. There were also gains in transportation and healthcare employment.

Job growth averaged 185,000 per month in the past three months. The economy needs to create 120,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.4 percent, or 10 cents in August after rising 0.3 percent in July. That raised the annual increase in wages to 2.9 percent in August, the largest gain since June 2009, from 2.7 percent in July.

A broader measure of unemployment, which includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment, fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 7.4 percent, the lowest level since April 2001. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9 percent.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast nonfarm payrolls increasing by 191,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate falling to 3.8 percent. The economy created 50,000 fewer jobs in June and July than previously reported.

The dollar firmed against a basket of currencies after the report, while U.S. Treasury yields rose. U.S. stock index futures extended losses.

Analysts say the administration’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package and increased government spending were shielding the economy from the trade tensions, which have also seen Washington engaged in tit-for-tat tariffs with other trade partners, including the European Union, Canada and Mexico.

They also note that the import duties implemented so far have affected only a small portion of the American economy, but warned this could change if President Donald Trump pressed ahead with additional tariffs on Chinese imports.

The United States and China have slapped retaliatory tariffs on a combined $100 billion of products since early July.

LIMITED IMPACT FROM TARIFFS

Americans had until Thursday to comment on a list of $200 billion worth of Chinese goods widely expected to be hit with tariffs soon. The government imposed import duties on goods including steel, aluminum, washing machines, lumber and solar panels early this year to protect American industries from what Trump says is unfair foreign competition.

Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Thursday there were 521 tariff-related job cuts in August, but these were largely offset by the hiring of 359 workers by steel producers.

The employment report added to manufacturing and services industries surveys in suggesting the Trump administration’s protectionist trade policy was having a marginal impact on the economy for now. The economy grew at a 4.2 percent annualized rate in the second quarter, almost double the 2.2 percent pace set in the January-March period.

The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, fell two-tenths of a percentage point to 62.7 percent last month, putting a wrinkle on an otherwise upbeat employment report.

Job gains in August were almost across all sectors, though manufacturing payrolls fell by 3,000. That was the first drop since July 2017 and followed an increase of 18,000 in July. Manufacturing employment was weighed down by declines in machinery, computer and electronic products and motor vehicle and parts industries.

Construction companies hired 23,000 more workers last month. They increased payrolls by 18,000 jobs in July. Wholesalers added 22,400 jobs last month. Payrolls in the professional and business services industries rose by 53,000 jobs in August.

Employment at sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores rebounded by 9,200 jobs in August after shedding 30,300 jobs in July related to the closing of all Toys-R-Us stores.

But retail payrolls fell 5,900 last month and government shed 3,000.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Predicting Trump: Chinese turn to fortune tellers to divine trade war

FILE PHOTO: A worker places U.S. and China flags near the Forbidden City ahead of a visit by U.S. President Donald Trump to Beijing, in Beijing, China November 8, 2017. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj/File Photo

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – As analysts crunch trade data and political commentators dissect official statements for signs of how the Sino-American trade war will develop, some ordinary Chinese are using different sources to predict U.S. President Donald Trump’s next moves: fortune tellers.

Armed with photos of Trump and his date of birth, the superstitious in China are turning to the divine – from masters on cosmic energy to experts on ancient spirits – for tips on what the president has got up his sleeve in the escalating trade spat between the world’s two largest economies.

The trade dispute has not only raised uncertainty over China’s economic growth, it has also unsettled the lives of some ordinary Chinese people, who are seeking advice on things like where to invest, how to run their business and even whether or not they should pursue plans to emigrate to the United States.

Victor Ng, a Feng Shui master from a line of famous practitioners in Hong Kong, says he usually analyses the birth date and time of birth of his clients for insights. With the trade row dominating headlines and increasing uncertainty about the future, he has been adding some ingredients to the mix.

“Because this time the U.S.-China trade war is ongoing, I will also look at the fate of the leaders of the U.S. and China – for instance, Xi Jinping’s birth date and the birth date of Donald Trump. This is how we analyze the situation,” he said.

In the western city of Xi’an, fortune teller Xie Xianglin says he has seen “many, many more” people approaching him for readings on the future of the trade war. Most are entrepreneurs and investors, said Xie, who charges 500 yuan ($73) to analyze the relevant spirits.

“Seven people have asked about investment and also about emigration trends,” he said of recent visitors.

In Shanghai’s leafy Fuxing Park, for at least three weekends in a row in July, heated debate broke out intermittently between retirees discussing the victims and villains of the trade war.

The park is an unofficial meeting ground for retirees at the weekend – and more recently, some have appeared there brandishing photos of Trump and his birth date looking for tips on his next step, said three people who had seen it happen.

Chinese people, including the country’s leaders, have a long tradition of putting their faith in soothsaying and geomancy, looking for answers in times of doubt, need and chaos.

Members of the ruling Communist Party, however, are officially banned from participating in what the government dubs superstitious practices, including visiting soothsayers.

For investment broker Ricky Fong, readings by Ng, a master of the ancient Chinese belief in a system of laws that governs energy, or Feng Shui, have helped him navigate the impact of the trade war on his business.

“When it comes to the U.S.-China trade war, in my view the importance is huge, with regards to investment – really big,” said Fong, in Hong Kong.

“Master Ng gives me a lot of very detailed data to work with. When it comes to the traditional financial tools they also provide data, but the Feng Shui master gives me another kind. He can use traditional methods to read my fate, and tell me how to better handle the situation,” Fong added.

Recently, amid the trade war, Ng advised Fong to invest in Kuangchi Science Ltd <0439.HK> after a reading of the company stock number and Fong’s birth date, which Ng believes gives an indication of a person’s fortune with a particular firm. Fong says he bought at 0.375 per share and sold at 0.77 per share.

For now, at least some readings on the fate of Trump and the trade war are pointing in the right direction.

“The trade war will end up with a reconciliation in the near future,” said fortune teller Xie, who offered a free reading to Reuters.

(Reporting by Engen Tham in Shanghai and Aleksander Solum in Hong Kong; Editing by John Ruwitch and Lincoln Feast)

Fed’s Powell: ‘Several years’ of strong jobs, low inflation still ahead

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gives his semiannual testimony on the economy and monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington July 17, 2018. REUTERS/James Lawler Duggan

By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, discounting the risk that a trade war may throw a global recovery off track, said the economy is on the cusp of “several years” where the job market remains strong and inflation stays around the Fed’s 2 percent target.

In written testimony delivered to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, the Fed chair signaled not just that he believes the economy is doing well, but that an era of stable growth may continue provided the Fed gets its policy decisions right.

“With appropriate monetary policy, the job market will remain strong and inflation will stay near 2 percent over the next several years,” Powell said in one of the strongest affirmations yet that the Fed is within reach of its dual policy targets more than a decade after the United States endured a deep financial crisis and recession.

The Fed “believes that – for now – the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate” in a way that keeps pace with a strengthening economy but does not raise rates so high or so fast that it weakens growth, Powell said.

Stock and bond markets were largely flat as Powell began his testimony, and analysts said there was little of surprise in the initial message.

“His takeaway was the job market is strong, inflation is going to stay near 2 percent. To me that means two more hikes this year,” said Peter Cecchini, chief market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald in New York.

Powell did not address his individual views on the appropriate pace of tightening or whether he thinks, as some of his colleagues have argued, that the Fed should pause its rate hike cycle sometime next year if inflation remains under control. But markets expect the central bank to raise rates two more times this year from the current target level of between 1.75 and 2 percent.

Powell took questions from Senators after presenting his written statement to them, and will appear before a House committee on Wednesday.

Powell and other Fed officials have in recent remarks pointedly declined to declare “victory” in their effort to hit the 2 percent inflation target, though most have acknowledged that, with joblessness at 4 percent, their employment goal has been reached.

But the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation hit 2.3 percent in May, and was right at 2 percent after excluding more volatile food and energy prices.

Inflation is “close” to the Fed’s target and “the recent data are encouraging,” Powell said as he laid out the reasons why he felt the United States’ near decade-long expansion was set to continue.

Still-low interest rates, a stable financial system, ongoing global growth and the boost from recent tax cuts and increased federal spending “continue to support the expansion” Powell said.

After a solid start to the year, growth appears to have accelerated as “robust job gains, rising after-tax incomes, and optimism among households have lifted consumer spending in recent months. Investment by businesses has continued to grow at a healthy rate,” Powell said.

Powell did nod to the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s trade policies, which organizations like the International Monetary Fund have warned could curb global growth if ongoing rounds of U.S. tariffs and retaliation by other countries raise prices, lower demand, and disrupt global business supply chains.

But “it is difficult to predict the ultimate outcome of current discussions over trade policy,” he said. Overall the risks to the economy were “roughly balanced,” with the “most likely path for the economy” one of continued job gains, moderate inflation, and steady growth.

(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Shruthi Shankar; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

Wall Street edges higher as strong jobs data offsets trade worries

FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., June 28, 2018. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Sruthi Shankar and Savio D’Souza

(Reuters) – U.S. stocks edged higher on Friday on stronger-than-expected job growth in June, offsetting concerns from a trade war between the United States and China.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 213,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said, topping expectations of 195,000, while the unemployment rate rose from an 18-year low to 4.0 percent and average hourly earnings rose 0.2 percent.

The moderate wage growth could allay fears of a strong build-up in inflation pressures, keeping the Federal Reserve on a path of gradual interest rate increases.

“It was what the market wanted to see: more jobs created than expected, wage growth moderate and creating jobs where you want to see them … It’s not just creating jobs it’s creating careers,” said J.J. Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago.

The strong jobs data follows the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting which showed policymakers discussed if recession lurked around the corner and expressed concerns trade tensions could hit an economy that by most measures looked strong.

Earlier stock futures were set for a more cautious start after the United States and China imposed tariffs on each other’s goods worth $34 billion, with Beijing accusing Washington of starting the “largest-scale trade war.”

President Donald Trump warned the United States may ultimately target over $500 billion worth of Chinese goods, but global markets remained broadly sanguine, though concerns about the conflict escalating capped appetite for risk.

“The expectation of things is always worse for the market than the reality,” said Kinahan. “We certainly have to pay attention to trade but it’s been expected for a long time.”

At 9:54 a.m. EDT the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 19.67 points, or 0.08 percent, at 24,337.07, the S&P 500 was up 4.26 points, or 0.16 percent, at 2,740.87 and the Nasdaq Composite was up 34.68 points, or 0.46 percent, at 7,621.10.

Eight of the 11 major S&P sectors were higher, led by a 0.8 percent jump in the S&P healthcare index.

Biogen jumped 17.8 percent after the company and Japanese drugmaker Eisai Co said the final analysis of a mid-stage trial of their Alzheimer’s drug showed positive results.

Among the decliners were industrials, energy and materials indexes.

Boeing, the single largest U.S. exporter to China, slipped 0.7 percent and Caterpillar dropped 1.3 percent.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor index, which is made up of chipmakers most of whom rely on China for a substantial chunk of revenue, dropped 0.4 percent.

Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.65-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.07-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The S&

P index recorded 10 new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 67 new highs and nine new lows.

(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Savio D’Souza in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)