Tag Archives: stocks

Buffet selling stocks: Economists interpret as warning for American Economy

Warren-Buffet-wealth-stocks

Important Takeaways:

  • Warren Buffett Selling $28.7 Billion in Stock Rings Alarm Bell Over Economy
  • Warren Buffett’s firm Berkshire Hathaway sold $28.7 billion of stock in the first three quarters of 2023 in a move that some economists have interpreted as ringing alarm bells for the American economy.
  • According to the company’s earnings, the Nebraska-based firm of the legendary investor and billionaire, known as the Oracle of Omaha, sold a net $10.4 billion of stock in the first quarter of the year. In the second quarter, it sold close to $13 billion of shares and bought less than $5 billion. In the third quarter, it sold about $5.3 billion worth of stocks.
  • But it’s also, crucially, a sign “that a recession is right around the corner,” Hanke told Newsweek.
  • “The money supply of the United States, broadly measured [M2], started contracting in July 2022, and has been falling like a stone,” Hanke said. “Since last year, the U.S. money supply has contracted by 3.3 percent.”
  • According to Hanke, there have been only four periods in U.S. history—in 1920-21, 1929-33, 1937-38 and 1948-49—in which the money supply has had significant contractions.

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In an interview with Greg Hunter Charles Nenner warns it’s over and we don’t even know it

Interview-by-Greg-Hunter

Important Takeaways:

  • Short America & Go Long BRIC Countries – Charles Nenner
  • Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner has been warning his war cycles were turning up. Nenner says, “It happens like clockwork in the second decade of a new century.”  Nenner says it’s a lot like the stock market running out of gas, and he warns, “It’s like a stock market that is topping.  First, the weak stocks go down.  Then, the indexes are still holding up, and then the big ones go down.  Now, you see for instance, Apple also came down, but first, the small stocks came down.  It’s already happening, but you only see the results suddenly when the whole thing crashes. . . .Americans seem to have no worries about the war that could be coming. I don’t want people to lose sleep, but the pact is forming.  It is China, Russia, North Korea and Iran.  They are going against the United States that does not have a functional army anymore. . . . Who do the Americans think they are?  It’s over, they can’t rule the world anymore.  If they are going to fight all these countries, I don’t think it is going to end well.”
  • Does Nenner see the American Empire ending? Nenner says, “I think it ended already, but we just don’t know it yet.  One of the signals of end of empire is bad education, which we have.  Another signal is the lifespan of people is shorter than for the people before.  What do you want me to say?  It does not look good, does it?  Another signal is your children have it worse than the generation before.  So, there is a whole list of signals, and it points to the United States is in trouble. . . .

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Uncertainty running through the Financial Market as stocks slump for Charles Schwab

Charles Schwab

Revelations 18:9-11 “The kings of the earth who committed fornication and lived luxuriously with her will weep and lament for her, when they see the smoke of her burning, 10 standing at a distance for fear of her torment, saying, ‘Alas, alas, that great city Babylon, that mighty city! For in one hour your judgment has come.’ 11 “And the merchants of the earth will weep and mourn over her, for no one buys their merchandise anymore

Important Takeaways:

  • Charles Schwab leads US financial sector wipeout
  • The Texas-based financial services corporation’s stock slumped by more than 20% during Monday trading, representing the company’s worst one-day sell-off since April 2000.
  • Schwab is ranked eighth among US banks by assets, with $7.05 trillion in client funds and 33.8 million active brokerage accounts at the end of last year. Some analysts say it is unlikely that Schwab will face a run like SVB did, due to its robust liquidity.
  • The selloff of Schwab’s stock was triggered by recent failures in the US banking sector, with three lenders going bust in less than a week.

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$9 Trillion wiped out in 3rd Quarter compares to WWI

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • $9 Trillion wiped from World Stocks in 3Q
  • Analysts at BofA liken it to going “Cold Turkey” and blame it for causing the third “Great Bond Bear Market.”
  • They calculate the 20% plus losses suffered by government debt investors over the last year are now a par with the post-World War I and II years of 1920 and 1949, and the Great Depression rout of 1931.
  • The combined collapse in global stock and bond markets means global market capitalization has been slashed by over $46 trillion

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How do you define an Economic Crash? $46 Trillion wiped out stocks and bonds. Bank experts don’t expect bleeding to stop

Revelations 18:23:’For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

Important Takeaways:

  • A $46 trillion wipeout in stocks and bonds won’t stop until central banks around the world launch a coordinated pivot, Bank of America says
  • It’s been a tough year for investors, with global stock and bond markets erasing $46.1 trillion in market value since November 2021, according to Bank of America.
  • The massive drawdown has led to forced liquidations on Wall Street, the bank’s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett said in a Friday note, highlighting the recent break below 2018 support in the NYSE Composite Index.

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Dow crashes 1,276 points erasing nearly all recent rally of stocks

Revelations 18:23 ‘For the merchants were the great men of the earth; for by thy sorceries were all nations deceived.’

  • Dow tumbles 1,200 points for worst day since June 2020 after hot inflation report
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 1,276.37 points, or 3.94%, to close at 31,104.97. The S&P 500 dropped 4.32% to 3,932.69, and the Nasdaq Composite sank 5.16% to end the day at 11,633.57.
  • Tech stocks were hit particularly hard, with Facebook-parent Meta skidding 9.4% and chip giant Nvidia shedding 9.5%.

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Stocks climb for second day as data eases inflation jitters

By Chuck Mikolajczak

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A gauge of global stocks climbed for a second straight day on Wednesday to hit its highest level in a week, after a report on U.S. consumer prices indicated calmed recent concerns about inflation, while the dollar retreated further from a 3-1/2 month high.

Economic data from the Labor Department said its consumer price index rose 0.4% in February, in-line with expectations, after a 0.3% increase in January. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, edged up 0.1%, just shy of the 0.2% estimate, after being unchanged the prior two months.

“We will see what happens in terms of when inflation begins to pick up over the next couple of years, but the market seemed to like it OK today,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F. L. Putnam Investment Management in Wellesley, Massachusetts.

While analysts largely expect a pickup in inflation as vaccine rollouts have led to a reopening of the economy, worries persist that additional stimulus in the form of a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package set to be signed by U.S. President Joe Biden could lead to an overheating of the economy and uncontrolled inflation.

“There are a lot of reasons why inflation could pick up over the next two to three years and the market is correct to be concerned about that, it might have gotten a little bit overly focused on it in the last couple of weeks,” said Hazen.

“But in general, the market is correct to be on alert for signs of rising inflation, particularly because of the stimulus and the size of the Fed balance sheet.”

The House of Representatives moved toward final approval of Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill on Wednesday, which forecasters predict will turbocharge the U.S. economy.

The data was enough to puncture recent concerns about rapidly rising inflation and provide support for stocks on Wall Street, which built on Tuesday’s strong rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 332.58 points, or 1.04%, to 32,165.32, the S&P 500 gained 23.83 points, or 0.61%, to 3,899.27 and the Nasdaq Composite added 58.07 points, or 0.44%, to 13,131.89.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year note retreated in the wake of the data, before edging higher on the session and taking some of the early steam out of equity gains.

Investors will now eye auctions of 10-year and 30-year debt on Wednesday and Thursday, with investors seeking to cover massive shorts on both maturities. A weak 7-year auction in late February helped fuel inflation concerns and sent yields higher.

Benchmark 10-year notes last yielded 1.5438%, from 1.544% late on Tuesday.

The dollar also moved lower for a second day following the data before reversing course.

The dollar index rose 0.022%, with the euro down 0.04% to $1.1893.

Oil prices resumed their climb after two days of declines, extending gains after the Energy Information Administration reported a bigger-than-expected storage build. [nL1N2L81NJ]

U.S. crude recently rose 0.45% to $64.30 per barrel and Brent was at $67.82, up 0.44% on the day.

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

S&P 500, Nasdaq hold near record levels after Trump remarks

S&P 500, Nasdaq hold near record levels after Trump remarks
By Lewis Krauskopf

(Reuters) – The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes edged higher after earlier hitting record peaks on Tuesday while the Dow dipped slightly as President Donald Trump said the United States is close to signing an initial trade deal with China but offered no new details about negotiations.

Stocks were off session highs after a highly anticipated midday speech from Trump, with investors concerned ahead of time about any comments that would worsen the tariff dispute that has convulsed markets for more than a year.

Trump said U.S. and Chinese negotiators were “close” to a “phase one” trade deal, but largely repeated well-worn rhetoric about China’s “cheating” on trade in remarks at The Economic Club of New York.

“The commentary was exactly what folks wanted to hear: that ‘phase one’ talks are still ongoing, that we are controlling them, but yet the belief is that China is very willing to make a deal,” said Delores Rubin, senior equities trader at Deutsche Bank Wealth Management in New York.

“There was nothing contrary to what we’d already known … so it was back to business,” Rubin said.

Investors have pointed to U.S.-China trade tensions as the main market uncertainty as stocks have climbed to record levels, fueled by rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, third-quarter earnings coming in above low expectations, and signs the economy may be bottoming.

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average <.DJI> fell 15.67 points, or 0.06%, to 27,675.82, the S&P 500 <.SPX> gained 2.54 points, or 0.08%, to 3,089.55 and the Nasdaq Composite <.IXIC> added 10.53 points, or 0.12%, to 8,474.81.

Most S&P 500 sectors were in positive territory, with healthcare <.SPXHC> gaining the most. Energy <.SPNY> lagged the most, falling 0.9%.

Among stocks, Walt Disney Co <DIS.N> rose 1.3% as the company said demand for its much-anticipated streaming service, Disney+, was well above its expectations in a launch.

Shares of Netflix Inc <NFLX.O> were down 1.2%.

Rockwell Automation Inc <ROK.N> jumped 11.1% after the U.S. factory equipment maker easily beat quarterly results and forecast 2020 earnings above estimates.

CBS Corp <CBS.N> dropped 3.3% after the media company missed quarterly revenue estimates. Shares of Viacom Inc <VIAB.O>, which is merging with CBS, were also down 3.6%.

With third-quarter earnings season drawing to a close, about three-quarters of S&P 500 companies have topped profit estimates, but overall they are expected to have posted a 0.5% drop in earnings, according to Refinitiv.

Earnings from big firms including Walmart Inc <WMT.N>, Nvidia Corp <NVDA.O> and Cisco Systems Inc <CSCO.O>, as well as a fresh set of economic data, are due this week.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.02-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.02-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 41 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 104 new highs and 88 new lows.

(Additional reporting by Arjun Panchadar and Agamoni Ghosh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta and Jonathan Oatis)

U.S. consumer spending strong; manufacturing struggling

FILE PHOTO: People tour The Shops during the grand opening of The Hudson Yards development, a residential, commercial, and retail space on Manhattan's West side in New York City, New York, U.S., March 15, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. retail sales surged in July as consumers bought a range of goods even as they cut back on motor vehicle purchases, which could help to assuage financial market fears that the economy was heading into recession.

The upbeat report from the Commerce Department on Thursday, however, will likely not change expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again next month as news from the manufacturing sector remains dour, underscoring the darkening outlook for the economy against the backdrop of trade tensions and slowing growth overseas.

A key part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted on Wednesday for the first time since June 2007, triggering a stock market sell-off. An inverted Treasury yield curve is historically a reliable predictor of looming recessions.

Financial markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s Sept. 17-18 policy meeting. The Fed lowered its short-term interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point last month, citing the acrimonious U.S.-China trade war and slowing global economies.

But the data could push markets to dial back expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut next month.

“So yes, consumers are lifting economic growth and easing pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut more aggressively, but the trade war itself, and the rhetoric that accompanies it will push for more rate cuts,” said Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.

Retail sales increased 0.7% last month after gaining 0.3% in June, the government said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would rise 0.3% in July. Compared to July last year, retail sales increased 3.4%.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales jumped 1.0% last month after advancing by an unrevised 0.7% in June. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.

U.S. stock index futures extended gains after the release of the data. U.S. Treasury yields rose while the dollar <.DXY> was slightly weaker against a basket of currencies.

STRONG LABOR MARKET

July’s gain in core retail sales suggested strong consumer spending early in the third quarter, though the pace will likely slow from the April-June quarter’s robust 4.3% annualized rate. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, is being underpinned by the lowest unemployment rate in nearly half a century.

While a separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed an increase in the number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits last week, the trend in claims continued to point to a strong labor market.

Solid consumer spending is blunting some of the hit on the economy from the downturn in manufacturing, which is underscored by weak business investment. There are, however, red flags for the labor market coming from manufacturing.

The sector’s struggles were highlighted by a third report from the Fed on Thursday showing factory production dropped 0.4% in July. Output at factories has declined more than 1.5% since December 2018. Manufacturing, which makes up about 12% of the economy, is also being weighed down by an inventory overhang, especially in the automotive sector.

Manufacturing productivity tumbled at its fastest pace in nearly two years in the second quarter, with factories cutting hours for workers, another report from the Labor Department showed.

Manufacturing’s troubles appear to have persisted into the third quarter. Though a report from the Philadelphia Fed on Thursday showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region slowed less than expected in August amid an increase in new orders, manufacturers reported hiring fewer workers.

A measure of factory employment dropped to its lowest level since November 2016. The weakness in factory employment in the region that covers eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware was mirrored by another survey from the New York Fed. Activity in New York state was little changed this month, with employment measures deteriorating further.

“The health of factories is still an important driver of growth and the soft patch for production remains a factor that is keeping economic growth in the slow lane,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.

The economy grew at a 2.1% rate in the second quarter, decelerating from the first quarter’s 3.1% pace. Growth estimates for the third quarter are below a 2.0% rate.

In July, auto sales fell 0.6% after rising 0.3% in June. Receipts at service stations rebounded 1.8%, reflecting higher gasoline prices. Sales at building material stores gained 0.2%.

Receipts at clothing stores increased 0.8%. Online and mail-order retail sales jumped 2.8%, the most in six months, after rising 1.9% in June. They were likely boosted by Amazon.com Inc’s <AMZN.O> Prime Day.

Receipts at furniture stores rose 0.3%. Sales at restaurants and bars accelerated 1.1%. But spending at hobby, musical instrument and book stores dropped 1.1% last month.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)

Fed rate-cut signal sends stocks surging, wounds yields, dollar

FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., June 19, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

By Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK (Reuters) – World stock markets surged on Thursday, with the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 hitting a record high, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 2% as investors digested a signal from the Federal Reserve of potential U.S. interest rate cuts as soon as its next meeting.

The U.S. dollar also weakened after the Fed – the U.S. central bank – on Wednesday indicated a marked shift in sentiment even as it left its benchmark rate unchanged for now.

“We have obviously morphed into the Fed taking the pole position as far what&rsquo;s driving the market right now, both domestically and on a global basis as well,” said Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.

“It’s risk-on trade again right now for the time being and I don’t see anything on a near-term basis that is going to disrupt that.”

Oil prices also surged, lifted by the Fed as well as by news that Iran shot down a U.S. military drone, raising fears of a military confrontation between Tehran and Washington.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 1.02%. The index hit its highest since May 1.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 203.87 points, or 0.77%, to 26,707.87, the S&P 500 gained 21.98 points, or 0.75%, to 2,948.44 and the Nasdaq Composite added 65.04 points, or 0.81%, to 8,052.36.

Energy, technology and industrials were among the best-performing S&P 500 sectors.

“Cyclicals are definitely getting a big pop today,” Mullaney said.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.52%, reaching its highest since early May.

Benchmark government bond yields in the United States and Europe tumbled following the Fed’s decision, with the U.S. 10-year note yield falling below 2% for the first time in 2-1/2 years.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. notes last rose 12/32 in price to yield 1.9855%, from 2.027% late on Wednesday.

“The statement indicated the Fed no longer insists on a pause or patience, providing an open ear to doves at upcoming meetings. Also critical … acknowledgment that inflation pressures are muted,” said Jim Vogel, interest rate strategist at FTN Financial in Memphis, Tennessee.

“As difficult as it might be to imagine, rates are also free to fall further,” he added.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.46%, with the euro up 0.6% to $1.1291.

U.S. crude rose 5.73% to $56.84 per barrel and Brent was last at $64.51, up 4.35%.

 

(Additional reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss in New York and Tom Wilson in London; editing by Larry King and James Dalgleish)